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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: You make the lineup
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[email protected]
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Glen Ellyn, IL
Joined: 05.18.2017

Jul 8 @ 11:11 AM ET
It doesn't matter much who you put on the 2nd Q will change it 10 min (if that long) into the 1st period. But I would try Anisimov at LW with Schmaltz at C with Kane. Schmaltz is no worse than Anisimov at face off losses (I mean wins) and is a much better play maker. Hopefully Schmaltz can improve on FO where as Anisimov has proven he isn't going to. Also I took a quick look at the back up goalies and it looks like Berube has better AHL stats than Forsberg. Just wondering, any thoughts on that?
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Jul 8 @ 11:15 AM ET
With you Chunk (quotes aren't working yet, too early eh?!) on Jurco getting a crack at 2LW early on. Stan/scouts see something in this guy and I've said before, Jurco is a finesse player not a grinder. He's either going to make it in the top 6 at his natural position of LW or he won't make it at all. And if he doesn't, they can bump AA out there or move up Sharpie.

Jurco looks uncomfortable playing his off side too which brings me to my next point. I'm all for the Q blender shuffling guys up and down lines but stop playing them out of position unless completely necessary. Play guys, especially the young ones, at their natural position and give them a chance. Bringing them up and putting them out of position is suicide. With that being said, I like Hayden at Rockford playing top line mins and hope that's where he starts the year.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 11:18 AM ET
Fun exercise. Even more fun, and more important, is what is the line chart on April 1st. No way to answer that today but the line chart on Oct 1st will have a lot of say in how good that line chart is on April 1st. Meaning will guys/kids get the minutes needed early to help late...... We know Kempny didn't last year as an example. Need just enough wins for the 8th seed while getting minutes for guys who will be useful on April 21st. And need as few minutes as needed to keep a Sharp useful come April.

Another thing, it's the hard cap era. I'd ask anyone to look over as many line charts as you choose and show me a true top 6 from last year. In this hard cap era there are very very very few. Notice the NSH and PIT line charts (and PIT's defense, are you kidding me!?!?!?). Pick a team and click lines. https://leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/

And after looking at say WSH, WPG top 6 one wonders how in the hell didn't they end up in the Finals. Great players, elite top 6 but just names on a piece of paper. Who fits and where regardless of how it looks to your eye is where a Q or Sullivan makes a difference.

- Mr Ricochet


Great point, without question, it will be a work in progress all year. And depending on how the Hossa situation shakes out, there could be a significant inseason acquisition as well.
Newgod77
Boston Bruins
Location: IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Jul 8 @ 11:19 AM ET
Kane is going to have to play on a couple of lines.


Joeron
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Los Angeles, GA
Joined: 11.26.2016

Jul 8 @ 11:21 AM ET
Saad-Toews-Panik

Sharp-Schmaltz-Kane

Jurco- Dauphin (or AA)- Hartman

Wingels- Kero- Debrincat


Keith-Murphy
Seabrook-Kempny
Forsling-Rutta


93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jul 8 @ 11:22 AM ET
Just another fan speculation scenario here:

Would anyone be willing to trade Alex D and say a draft pick for the rights to the Sens Ryan Dzingel?

Young, plays C/W and had some good looks in the top-mid 6 in Ottawa. Another Illinois kid with speed and decent size. Not a power forward for Kane, but a guy who can wheel, play two ways, and be around the net.
Larsson_fan
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 10.08.2016

Jul 8 @ 11:30 AM ET
John Jaeckel: You make the lineup
- John Jaeckel

JJ, I don't always agree with your opinions bs but overall you're probably the blogger on this site and I'm proud to call you a friend.keep it up, Bubba.
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Jul 8 @ 11:32 AM ET
Just another fan speculation scenario here:

Would anyone be willing to trade Alex D and say a draft pick for the rights to the Sens Ryan Dzingel?

Young, plays C/W and had some good looks in the top-mid 6 in Ottawa. Another Illinois kid with speed and decent size. Not a power forward for Kane, but a guy who can wheel, play two ways, and be around the net.

- 93Joe

I'd rather Tyler Johnson trading a top prospect and that's if we can afford him. Dzingel would surely cost less
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 8 @ 11:36 AM ET
Going to go off the board a little bit. They really need to get more balance and back to rolling 4 lines. That's when they've been successful.

So;

Saad - Toews - Panik
Hayden - Schmaltz - Kane
Sharp - AA - Hartman
Wingels - Kero - Dauphin

Keith - Murphy
Kempny - Seabs
Forsling, Ruuta, Rozy, and one guy who will surprise everyone that steps up.


Yes, Hayden will need to step up, but their will be options later if he doesn't. Trade after Hossa's LTIR, Fortin, Knott, or Debrincat after half or more of the season in Rockford.

I like the 3rd and 4th lines scoring(3rd), puck possession(4th), abilities. Something that was really missing last year.

Obviously for this to happen, 2LW needs someone to step up. But they need to have more balance.

- vabeachbear


Going off the board has won Sullivan the last two cups in the hard cap era. I'm a guy who has bought into there are no real lines as much as pairings of forwards and others come and go on their wing. I also like old school thinking of a player to win the puck, a player to dish the puck and a player to finish. But the new era is a speed game so that old school thinking applies less IMO, but like the idea of parings of forwards and fill around....... My lineup in October has an eye on April at wings but my constant is my top 4.

Saad-Toews
AA-Kane

Cap era, a reasonable top 4. Now I fill in to see what works, and doesn't.

Saad-Toews-Hartman........ Love Panik at 1RW but with a strong pairing of Saad and Toews I'll try Panik down the lineup for balance and use Hartman who finished SIXTH in league rookie scoring last year. ..... When this doesn't work Hartman down to the 3rd line paired with Sharp. Something tells me that combo will click v 3rd pairing Dmen. .... I also think Hartman is a fine fit with AA and Kane.

Jurco-AA-Kane. Hell Jurco may not even make this team but on paper he fits with this pairing due to his skating, size, pedigree and if anyone on this roster can carry a line Kane can. If he clicks even a little bit like Panik did I'll end up with 3 lines that can score.

Sharp-Schmaltz-Panik. IF I can pull Schmaltz and Panik from the top 6 to the 3rd line with a healthy wily Sharp I'm in business. Schmaltz never played more than 64 games at any level and his 64 were in the USHL. As a 20yr old with no pro experience the kid was up and down the lineup, down to Rockford and back, played many minutes vs 1st-2nd pairing Dmen and still was just short of .5 points per game. I think the kid will improve but don't think he's ready for the C slot at this level but if he is even close a wily finisher like Sharp and a nasty skilled Panik are prefect wingers. Classic puck winner, dish man, finisher line. This line doesn't see top pairings and skates 15ish minutes a game. Reasonable...... Doubt it will work but I'm taking a chance on 3 scoring lines out of the box with an eye to April.

I have an if on all 3 of my top lines but they are reasonable ifs. Hartman was 6th in rookie scoring and plays with a proven cup winning pair. Jurco has only shown skating and size but is with a pair in AA and Kane that were 2/3 of arguably the top line in the sport before AA got hurt, and Kane could carry me. Schmaltz did a lot in very difficult circumstances as a 20 yr old rookie with zero pro minutes last year. If he can play C next year the 3rd line is the spot to try it and with Panik and Sharp he has very good wingers who fit his shortcomings as a young player. I also have Sharp take as many draws as possible.

If, lotta ifs in this hard cap era for EVERY team, the above works reasonably enough I've gotten younger, bigger, faster and added more scoring depth, a 3rd line that can score. All 3 lines ain't gonna work I know that, too many ifs that work rarely happen, but one or two reasonably will and I'm closer to bigger, younger, faster, more balanced for April, have given players minutes to prove they can or can't fill a certain role and I now have enough data for StanBow to use the Hossa cap money to fill what need I can't in house. .......... In my mind I know I can always go back to a top 6 of Saad-Toews-Panik...Schmaltz-AA-Kane and be competitive but I'm giving a more balanced 3 line deep, younger, bigger, faster look a shot first.

4th line won't be a problem IMO and might be a strength depending on how many of the ifs in the top 9 work out. The pair down there starts with Wingels and Dauphin. I use Dauphin as one of the pair cuz he's more dynamic than Kero but to start Kero is on that line.

I'll fool with the defense, like doing monthly bills, until the very last minute.
TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Jul 8 @ 11:37 AM ET

One thing has been common for Kane's LW, he needs to be a shooter and a right-handed shot. Some past examples include: Versteeg, Sharp, Panarin and Schmaltz. The latter is not the best as Schmaltz seems to be more of a pass-first player, plus as JJ said, he's probably better suited for C/RW.

So who are the options for LW2? Righties on the projected roster include:

Hartman
Sharp
Schmaltz
Wingels
Tootoo
Hayden
Hino


So with that in mind, I will say:

Line 1: Saad-Toews-Panik
Line 2: Sharp-AA-Kane
Line 3: Jurco/Bouma-Schmaltz-Hartman
Line 4: Wingels-Kero-Dauphin


* Line 1 makes sense, most agree there.
** 35 years old and injury history or not, I think Sharp will be given a shot because he already knows how to play with Kane and has the best shot of those righies above.
*** with Schmaltz and Hartman, you're hoping to have secondary scoring. Bouma might make sense to have on there for another face off option (he's a lefty, so he and 8 can take draws on their strong sides) But Jurco will probably get a long look as well.
**** We know Q will look to assemble a shutdown line and these should be some of the best candidates. All can take draws and Wingels is a righty to take on his strong side. They will be defensively solid and very hard to play against.


Defence seems to make sense. The only thing I'll toss out is that Jordan Oesterle will make the team as he has a 650k NHL/ 650k AHL setup so they must see something in him.

If you look at his youtubes, he looks like the typical style that the Hawks like; Slight build, strong skater and jumps up into the play.

35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Jul 8 @ 11:46 AM ET
Saad-Toews-Panik

Jurco/Schmaltz-AA-Kane

Sharp-Dauphin-Hartman

Wingels- Kero-Jurco/Schmaltz


Keith-Murphy
Seabrook-Kempny
Forsling/Rozival-Rutta/Oduya
Rutta/Oduya
Forsling/Rozival
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 8 @ 11:52 AM ET
Great point, without question, it will be a work in progress all year. And depending on how the Hossa situation shakes out, there could be a significant inseason acquisition as well.
- John Jaeckel


It all hinges on Q IMO. I really think he learned something the last couple years about the cap era, especially watching Sullivan. You won't have a top 6 or a defense on paper that looks pleasing to the eye but you can win a cup that way.

I think Q learned from the Daley situation and as proof he took a lineup full of rookies, some with zero pro experience, and won the points in the West. Just like watching a kid in jr I'm watching to see if a coach, and GM, develops. IMO Q showed he's developed in that he understands he has to develop at this level and live with the mistakes doing so. That every coach has to.

Q did a helluva job last year, a HOF coach with 3 cups developing???, and I'm optimistic he develops even more this year.
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Jul 8 @ 11:54 AM ET
People here really undervalue Debrincat's game.

If they hold on to AA, Debrincat will be 2LW. I think he comes to camp and takes the job by scoring, with Q loving Hartman and Sharp flanking Schmaltz.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 8 @ 11:54 AM ET
Sharp Toews Kane (#bandbacktogether)
Saad AA Panik (#fastguystowinlostdraws)
Hartman Schmaltz Jurco (#wildcard)
Wingles Dauphin Kero (#flipandchange)

Keith Murphy
Kempny Seabs
poop show

Sharp gets injured 15ish games in averaging over a PPG, Dinglecat gets promoted and wins Calder.

To be fair, the forward group isn't terrible this year. I'd like another center with NHL experience (if I haven't made that clear lol) but I think that is a good combination of speed and size with some other guys to plug in depending on how things go. Assuming you get 35 - 40 out of Schmaltz, and 30-35 goals between the two of Hartmania and Panik.

The third pairing will be interesting this year but I think that is par for the cap era. I really like the 1st and 2nd pairings as they project.

Anyway, gives a chance for some of the lads to get some AHL minutes before getting shocked and awed in the show.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 8 @ 11:55 AM ET
People here really undervalue Debrincat's game.

If they hold on to AA, Debrincat will be 2LW. I think he comes to camp and takes the job by scoring, with Q loving Hartman and Sharp flanking Schmaltz.

- Bjm84


Gets job after Sharp goes down with injury.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 11:57 AM ET
Depending how the whole hossa ltri turns or if the cronies in nhl office ever decide on the situation the most pressing need in my mine is the d kempney has a lot of upside and pairing him with seabrook for the whole season if q allows it would be ideal. 5 6 7 d is scary to me forsling is not ready should be developing in rockford rutta is an unknown rosie is rosie . so what about signing wiedman for 1 season bottom pairing still can shoot the puck and skate 900k. or on a pto bring in some d see if any emerge. Maybe a trade hino and a 4th for moore from jersey or someting like that. No cambell or odaya both are done and debricant no mattet how well he does in training camp leave him in rockford at let him and other players, fortin hayden etc.develop.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 8 @ 12:02 PM ET
One thing has been common for Kane's LW, he needs to be a shooter and a right-handed shot. Some past examples include: Versteeg, Sharp, Panarin and Schmaltz. The latter is not the best as Schmaltz seems to be more of a pass-first player, plus as JJ said, he's probably better suited for C/RW.

So who are the options for LW2? Righties on the projected roster include:

Hartman
Sharp
Schmaltz
Wingels
Tootoo
Hayden
Hino

- TyCamScore


Really really good point, ty........... As great a goal scorer as Kane is he's a better set up man and plays wing. Indeed a RH shot playing LW with Kane is perfect. I love much of what Hayden brings with his size, compete, a centermans IQ, 4 full years at Yale but doubt he has the feet to keep up with a Kane line especially with the slowish AA centering it. ........ Hartman is a righty who's shown he can score in this league as a rookie.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:05 PM ET
Really really good point, ty........... As great a goal scorer as Kane is he's a better set up man and plays wing. Indeed a RH shot playing LW with Kane is perfect. I love much of what Hayden brings with his size, compete, a centermans IQ, 4 full years at Yale but doubt he has the feet to keep up with a Kane line especially with the slowish AA centering it. ........ Hartman is a righty who's shown he can score in this league as a rookie.
- Mr Ricochet


Hartman could be OK and he will handle some minor rough stuff too which Kane likes. I don't think he's really natural on the left. He's a lot like Shaw to me, they can spot him up and down and in various roles but he is probably best as a 3RW on a good team.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:05 PM ET
It doesn't matter much who you put on the 2nd Q will change it 10 min (if that long) into the 1st period. But I would try Anisimov at LW with Schmaltz at C with Kane. Schmaltz is no worse than Anisimov at face off losses (I mean wins) and is a much better play maker. Hopefully Schmaltz can improve on FO where as Anisimov has proven he isn't going to. Also I took a quick look at the back up goalies and it looks like Berube has better AHL stats than Forsberg. Just wondering, any thoughts on that?
- [email protected]


Schmaltz was 30.9% at the dot last year, Anisimov 45.1% last year and 46% for his career.

30.9% < 45.1%
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:09 PM ET
People here really undervalue Debrincat's game.

If they hold on to AA, Debrincat will be 2LW. I think he comes to camp and takes the job by scoring, with Q loving Hartman and Sharp flanking Schmaltz.

- Bjm84


Speaking only for myself, I don't. But I also see it for what it is, today.

I think the "Play DeBrincat Now" crowd may be undervaluing the difficulty of jumping from junior to the NHL—and forgetting how, well, forgettable he was in camp a year ago.

Just like a lot of the same people were banging the Motte as top 6 LW Drum at this time last year, undervaluing the jump from college to NHL as well. No offense . . .

If/when Q sees enough of a game—over 200 feet—against men—he will get the job.

Racking up goals against 17 year olds, 95% of whom will never play in the NHL, is not enough by itself or even close to enough.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:10 PM ET
Schmaltz was 30.9% at the dot last year, Anisimov 45.1% last year and 46% for his career.

30.9% < 45.1%

- HawkintheD



Quite true. I think Schmaltz is going to end up at C at some point, but the physical side of it and the dot is where he needs to improve to get there.
hawk35
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NF
Joined: 08.26.2009

Jul 8 @ 12:10 PM ET
Hawks still look 2-3 players away from being a decent contender.

Any chance they could get Jagr and Franson at a low cost? Maybe a million or 2 each???

That would help forward and defence depth a bit, then once the Hossa Cap $$$ is freed up they could really persue a 4-5 million LW to REALLY add to their top 6.

Thoughts???
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:11 PM ET
JJ, I don't always agree with your opinions bs but overall you're probably the blogger on this site and I'm proud to call you a friend.keep it up, Bubba.
- Larsson_fan



Thx Larsson. Much appreciated.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:13 PM ET
Just another fan speculation scenario here:

Would anyone be willing to trade Alex D and say a draft pick for the rights to the Sens Ryan Dzingel?

Young, plays C/W and had some good looks in the top-mid 6 in Ottawa. Another Illinois kid with speed and decent size. Not a power forward for Kane, but a guy who can wheel, play two ways, and be around the net.

- 93Joe



I like Dzingel (a lot actually) and the Hawks were mildly interested in him before this past deadline. Not sure they pay DeBrincat for him, but sure.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:14 PM ET
Kane is going to have to play on a couple of lines.
- Newgod77



Unless they have two Kanes.
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