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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Young Forwards Are Key to Replacing Schenn Next Season
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bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:14 AM ET
Those aren't cap hits... Weber has a cap hit of 7.8, Toews and Kane 10.5...
- FlyersGrace


fair. also remember the cap increases every year and if the CAD does even a little better it will jump more. I don't think McJesus' important to the Oilers can be understated and they need to do whatever they can to keep him
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:14 AM ET
That all depends on how the lines shake out and if they have chemistry. With the added depth we should see improved scoring from top to bottom.
- ClaudeFather


You'd like to think so. Patrick and Lindblom haven't played an NHL game yet. No one has any idea what they will add scoring wise. There just isn't a way to estimate. Is it a lock these guys make the roster? Who knows.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:15 AM ET
Re: PK minutes

Simmonds really excelled in a PK role last year so I think he'll be back on it. If Laughton is here I think he's on it too. Raffl would be my other guess. And Coots is always around if need be. I'm sure Hak will get some rookies a look there too to at least see if they can handle it.

- hereticpride


Right now, my regular PK guys would be:
Coots, Raffl, Read with Giroux spotted in at key times to take faceoffs

The others in contention would be:
Laughton, Raffl, Filppula, and Lehtera

And at some point in the season, I'd probably give Patrick a look too

Either way, they have plenty of guys to fill that role.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:15 AM ET
Wear bigger skates
- jmatchett383

FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:16 AM ET
fair. also remember the cap increases every year and if the CAD does even a little better it will jump more. I don't think McJesus' important to the Oilers can be understated and they need to do whatever they can to keep him
- bulet13

That I agree with... I think they will pay any asking price for him (and they'd be dumb not to - superstars are few and far between and most teams just don't have them). But it will hamper their ability to put really good players with him. They better draft well.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:16 AM ET
You'd like to think so. Patrick and Lindblom haven't played an NHL game yet. No one has any idea what they will add scoring wise. There just isn't a way to estimate. Is it a lock these guys make the roster? Who knows.
- PLindbergh31


Bring your pessimism elsewhere
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:16 AM ET
Not a joke. 100% serious.

No one player is worth that much cap space.

And if McDavid gets something in the 13 mil a year range, imagine what Draisaitl will want when his contract comes up. It has a domino effect.

Look how Chicago is hamstrung by their 2 contracts.

You dont win without depth.

- ggunky


Would you rather have Kane and Toews at a combined 21m, or Giroux and Voracek at 17m? Not to mention Kane and Toews have 3 cups in the bank already.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:17 AM ET
Not really worried about where the goals are going to come from, and here is why.

Last year Giroux and Voracek combined for 34 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they can increase that total to at least 42. Nor is it unreasonable to expect Konecny to have a small increase, say from 11 to 15.
That brings us to +12

Now lets assume that column A is replaced by column B in the lineup
A/B
Weal and Cousins/Lindblom
Schenn/Patrick
Read and partial Filpulla/full season of Filpulla
VdV/Laughton or Lehtera
PEB and Raffl (52 games)/Raffl (70 games)

The total goal output of everyone in column A was 72 goals.

I don't think the following is unreasonable either:
Lindblom 12 goals
Patrick 16 goals
Filpulla 12 goals
Laughton and Lehtera combined 10 goals
Raffl 12 goals

This totals to 62 goals

Overall that leaves us +2 from last year without taking into consideration the possibility of a better offensive year from Ghost and few more goals from Provorov. Last year they scored 219 goals, I don't think 225 is unreasonable and if they can slightly reduce the goals against from 236 to even just 230, than a slight improvement to 92-95 points is not out of the question. They probably still miss the playoffs, but at least they are moving in the right direction.

- BiggE



Nice job, and it almost seems plausible.

Though if you really want to benefit us all, please tie your clients shoelaces together in case of the zombie apocalypse.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 28 @ 10:17 AM ET
Not really worried about where the goals are going to come from, and here is why.

Last year Giroux and Voracek combined for 34 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they can increase that total to at least 42. Nor is it unreasonable to expect Konecny to have a small increase, say from 11 to 15.
That brings us to +12

Now lets assume that column A is replaced by column B in the lineup
A/B
Weal and Cousins/Lindblom
Schenn/Patrick
Read and partial Filpulla/full season of Filpulla
VdV/Laughton or Lehtera
PEB and Raffl (52 games)/Raffl (70 games)

The total goal output of everyone in column A was 72 goals.

I don't think the following is unreasonable either:
Lindblom 12 goals
Patrick 16 goals
Filpulla 12 goals
Laughton and Lehtera combined 10 goals
Raffl 12 goals

This totals to 62 goals

Overall that leaves us +2 from last year without taking into consideration the possibility of a better offensive year from Ghost and few more goals from Provorov. Last year they scored 219 goals, I don't think 225 is unreasonable and if they can slightly reduce the goals against from 236 to even just 230, than a slight improvement to 92-95 points is not out of the question. They probably still miss the playoffs, but at least they are moving in the right direction.

- BiggE


This contradicts my argument, so it's completely irrelevant.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:17 AM ET
Not a joke. 100% serious.

No one player is worth that much cap space.

And if McDavid gets something in the 13 mil a year range, imagine what Draisaitl will want when his contract comes up. It has a domino effect.

Look how Chicago is hamstrung by their 2 contracts.

You dont win without depth.

- ggunky


Chicago won a cup after the Kane and Toews contracts

Players who want to win will take a slight discount to play for a contender like the Oil will be. McDavid will get paid that money either in Edmonton or somewhere else and there is no way Edmonton will ever get a fair deal in a trade for arguably the second best player and soon to be best player in the league. So they can either pay him or watch him get paid somewhere else and they're making the right call
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:18 AM ET
Bring your pessimism elsewhere
- ClaudeFather


It's reality. Questioning the goaltenders is pessimism to right?

Inability to score goals, while not being able to prevent goals is a hell of recipe for success.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:18 AM ET
Lindblom, Filppula, and Raffl having 36 combined as an estimate I think is high. At least one of them will probably end up with pretty limited ice time and a lot of PK time.
- pinkfloydfreak


We shall see. I think Lindblom will get a regular shift in the top nine and see some time with G and Jake. I also think he ends up the net front guy on the 2nd pp unit. 12 goals for him, IMO, is a conservative estimate. I think 15 could very well be in reach and 17-18 not out of the question.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:18 AM ET
Would you rather have Kane and Toews at a combined 21m, or Giroux and Voracek at 17m? Not to mention Kane and Toews have 3 cups in the bank already.
- PLindbergh31


Or Crosby and Malkin at 18.2?
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:18 AM ET
fair. also remember the cap increases every year and if the CAD does even a little better it will jump more. I don't think McJesus' important to the Oilers can be understated and they need to do whatever they can to keep him
- bulet13


This isn't true.

The cap not going up is what hurt Chicago. When they signed Toews and Kane to the contracts they did they did it with the thought that the cap would increase every year. It didn't and they have suffered greatly from it.

nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:18 AM ET
Umberger's buyout drops off as well after next season. Add 1.5M more.
- FlyersGrace



that's right, forgot about that a decision on Simmonds also looms and a Provorov deal. but they also should have Sandheim/Myers on ELC. I'm pysched to see the youth starting to make the team. I'm fine with a step back this year if it means a year of Lindblom, Patrick, Hagg, Morin, Laughton and continued growth of second year kids like Provorov, Konecny and even tho a tad older, Ghost. Not saying I want to lose, just saying I am ok with losses that accompany growing pains for young players
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:19 AM ET
That I agree with... I think they will pay any asking price for him (and they'd be dumb not to - superstars are few and far between and most teams just don't have them). But it will hamper their ability to put really good players with him. They better draft well.
- FlyersGrace


This was gonna be my next point. In this era drafting well is more important than ever and cup windows close faster than ever
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:19 AM ET
Nice job, and it almost seems plausible.

Though if you really want to benefit us all, please tie your clients shoelaces together in case of the zombie apocalypse.

- MBFlyerfan



Wouldn't it make more sense to just remove their teeth?
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:20 AM ET
Chicago won a cup after the Kane and Toews contracts

Players who want to win will take a slight discount to play for a contender like the Oil will be. McDavid will get paid that money either in Edmonton or somewhere else and there is no way Edmonton will ever get a fair deal in a trade for arguably the second best player and soon to be best player in the league. So they can either pay him or watch him get paid somewhere else and they're making the right call

- bulet13



They have not wont a cup since the contracts kicked in.
The contracts kicked in in July 2015, the last cup they won was that spring of 2015, before the contracts kicked in.


pinkfloydfreak
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.13.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:20 AM ET
fair. also remember the cap increases every year...
- bulet13


Eh, there's been a lot of artificial increases due to escrow which the players union is growing increasingly tired of. It's not a given that the cap will rise every year or even not stay completely flat or have a slight dip one year.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 28 @ 10:20 AM ET
Andrew MacDonald, lefty:

3 years remaining at 5mAAV; owed $16.5 million.

Jason Demers, righty:

4 years remaining at 4.5mAAV; owed 17 million.

How do we meme this trade into existence?
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:21 AM ET


Wouldn't it make more sense to just remove their teeth?

- BiggE


Yes, but Im trying to be realistic and practical here.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:21 AM ET
This isn't true.

The cap not going up is what hurt Chicago. When they signed Toews and Kane to the contracts they did they did it with the thought that the cap would increase every year. It didn't and they have suffered greatly from it.

- ggunky


the cap has increased every year dude seriously try using google

i would post an image but im bad at computers and internet
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:21 AM ET
It's reality. Questioning the goaltenders is pessimism to right?

Inability to score goals, while not being able to prevent goals is a hell of recipe for success.

- PLindbergh31


Total opposite, I think we are in good shape up front. The goaltending situation scares me.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:21 AM ET
Or Crosby and Malkin at 18.2?
- MBFlyerfan

Crosby took a serious home town discount on his last contract. Let's not even joke about that. He could have gotten way more money someplace else and we all know it.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:22 AM ET
Eh, there's been a lot of artificial increases due to escrow which the players union is growing increasingly tired of. It's not a given that the cap will rise every year or even not stay completely flat or have a slight dip one year.
- pinkfloydfreak


there's also an escalator clause thats kicked in every year since the new CBA
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