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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Young Forwards Are Key to Replacing Schenn Next Season
Author Message
TEAGLE
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jun 28 @ 10:03 AM ET
Bill,

Do you believe that to have a legitimate chance of a cup a team needs at least one superstar player if not two? I've heard the McGuire's and Bowman's of the world verbalize this theory.
Assuming they're correct it would seem the Flyers are inherently flawed. While they are paying two players superstar money, they clearly are not superstars. Seems to me that trading Giroux and Voracek now, even at reduced value is, almost necessary. If/when they find a true star player the money for them will be going to two guys who are undeserving.
I realize the Flyers Faithful will scream blasphemy but as a casual fan I think I can see the situation clearly and without bias.
Thoughts?
nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:03 AM ET
I find it funny that the beats were all about bringing the youth along last year now they are questioning where the production to replace Schenn is going to come from.

I think Lehtera will not start the season on the PK. That looks to be some combo of Coots, Simmer, G and Raffl at least to start with Filpula and maybe Weise added unless Read gets a fourth line spot every day.

- dragonoffrost



firstly I will say I am ok with the move because its Hextall continuing to mold the team he wants. Yes taking on that contract sucks but I view it as the price to pick up an additional first rounder being I would have thought Schenn was worth one first rounder. that said, Schenn isn't actually one of the older guys who we are all talking about replacing with the youth. I mean, he is only 25. I look forward to seeing the contracts of Read and Filppula drop off after this coming season and Lehterathe season after. that's little over 13 million in cap space.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:04 AM ET
Elliot Friedman reporting McDavid deal could be close. 8 years, $13.25M AAV
- PhillySportsGuy


they would give him a 20 year contract if they could hahaha
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:05 AM ET
firstly I will say I am ok with the move because its Hextall continuing to mold the team he wants. Yes taking on that contract sucks but I view it as the price to pick up an additional first rounder being I would have thought Schenn was worth one first rounder. that said, Schenn isn't actually one of the older guys who we are all talking about replacing with the youth. I mean, he is only 25. I look forward to seeing the contracts of Read and Filppula drop off after this coming season and Lehterathe season after. that's little over 13 million in cap space.
- nastyflyergirl

Umberger's buyout drops off as well after next season. Add 1.5M more.
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:06 AM ET

- FlyersGrace


i guess they are really hoping the cap continues to increase
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:07 AM ET
Elliot Friedman reporting McDavid deal could be close. 8 years, $13.25M AAV
- PhillySportsGuy


No one player is worth that much cap space.

If that is what he is looking for i would start making some calls and listening to offers.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:07 AM ET
Elliot Friedman reporting McDavid deal could be close. 8 years, $13.25M AAV
- PhillySportsGuy

It wont be. But that might actually be worth it lol. It is going to be hilarious to see how cap (frank)ed they are soon though
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:08 AM ET
Not really worried about where the goals are going to come from, and here is why.

Last year Giroux and Voracek combined for 34 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they can increase that total to at least 42. Nor is it unreasonable to expect Konecny to have a small increase, say from 11 to 15.
That brings us to +12

Now lets assume that column A is replaced by column B in the lineup
A/B
Weal and Cousins/Lindblom
Schenn/Patrick
Read and partial Filpulla/full season of Filpulla
VdV/Laughton or Lehtera
PEB and Raffl (52 games)/Raffl (70 games)

The total goal output of everyone in column A was 72 goals.

I don't think the following is unreasonable either:
Lindblom 12 goals
Patrick 16 goals
Filpulla 12 goals
Laughton and Lehtera combined 10 goals
Raffl 12 goals

This totals to 62 goals

Overall that leaves us +2 from last year without taking into consideration the possibility of a better offensive year from Ghost and few more goals from Provorov. Last year they scored 219 goals, I don't think 225 is unreasonable and if they can slightly reduce the goals against from 236 to even just 230, than a slight improvement to 92-95 points is not out of the question. They probably still miss the playoffs, but at least they are moving in the right direction.





MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:08 AM ET
asdf jkl;
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:08 AM ET
Elliot Friedman reporting McDavid deal could be close. 8 years, $13.25M AAV
- PhillySportsGuy




Probably a bargain.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:09 AM ET
Not really worried about where the goals are going to come from, and here is why.

Last year Giroux and Voracek combined for 34 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they can increase that total to at least 42. Nor is it unreasonable to expect Konecny to have a small increase, say from 11 to 15.
That brings us to +12

Now lets assume that column A is replaced by column B in the lineup
A/B
Weal and Cousins/Lindblom
Schenn/Patrick
Read and partial Filpulla/full season of Filpulla
VdV/Laughton or Lehtera
PEB and Raffl (52 games)/Raffl (70 games)

The total goal output of everyone in column A was 72 goals.

I don't think the following is unreasonable either:
Lindblom 12 goals
Patrick 16 goals
Filpulla 12 goals
Laughton and Lehtera combined 10 goals
Raffl 12 goals


This totals to 62 goals

Overall that leaves us +2 from last year without taking into consideration the possibility of a better offensive year from Ghost and few more goals from Provorov. Last year they scored 219 goals, I don't think 225 is unreasonable and if they can slightly reduce the goals against from 236 to even just 230, than a slight improvement to 92-95 points is not out of the question. They probably still miss the playoffs, but at least they are moving in the right direction.

- BiggE


Nicely said
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:09 AM ET
It wont be. But that might actually be worth it lol. It is going to be hilarious to see how cap (frank)ed they are soon though
- YuenglingJagr


well considering Towes and Kane make 13.8 mill per year, Ryan O'Reilly made 11 mill this year, and Shea Weber made 14 mill last year and 12 mill this year...i think thats a pretty fair deal
bulet13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Faceoffs, Plus/Minus, and PIMs...the Holy Trinity, TX
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 28 @ 10:09 AM ET
No one player is worth that much cap space.

If that is what he is looking for i would start making some calls and listening to offers.

- ggunky


this is a joke right?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:10 AM ET
There was appox. a 30 game stretch last year where this team averaged well below 2 goals a game. Scoring goals is going to be a big issue this season.
- PLindbergh31


That all depends on how the lines shake out and if they have chemistry. With the added depth we should see improved scoring from top to bottom.
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:10 AM ET
Not really worried about where the goals are going to come from, and here is why.

Last year Giroux and Voracek combined for 34 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they can increase that total to at least 42. Nor is it unreasonable to expect Konecny to have a small increase, say from 11 to 15.
That brings us to +12

Now lets assume that column A is replaced by column B in the lineup
A/B
Weal and Cousins/Lindblom
Schenn/Patrick
Read and partial Filpulla/full season of Filpulla
VdV/Laughton or Lehtera
PEB and Raffl (52 games)/Raffl (70 games)

The total goal output of everyone in column A was 72 goals.

I don't think the following is unreasonable either:
Lindblom 12 goals
Patrick 16 goals
Filpulla 12 goals
Laughton and Lehtera combined 10 goals
Raffl 12 goals

This totals to 62 goals

Overall that leaves us +2 from last year without taking into consideration the possibility of a better offensive year from Ghost and few more goals from Provorov. Last year they scored 219 goals, I don't think 225 is unreasonable and if they can slightly reduce the goals against from 236 to even just 230, than a slight improvement to 92-95 points is not out of the question. They probably still miss the playoffs, but at least they are moving in the right direction.

- BiggE


As much as the Flyers struggled to score last season, their biggest issue was goaltending.

As of now it looks like that will be the issue again this year.


dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:11 AM ET
Jori Lehtera averaged a whopping 26 seconds of PK time per game for the Blues last season, so just penciling him in on the PK doesn't seem wise.
- johndewar


26 seconds could amount to a 2nd or 3rd pair role. I'm not sure how St Louis ran their PK under Hitch and Yeo. Also that could be affected by the amount of penalties the Blues took per game. Too many factors to say he can't do it here because he did only 26 seconds there.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:12 AM ET
25 goal, 50 point players are not easy to replace. Schenn's production is being underrated.
- MJL


Maybe, maybe not.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:12 AM ET
well considering Towes and Kane make 13.8 mill per year, Ryan O'Reilly made 11 mill this year, and Shea Weber made 14 mill last year and 12 mill this year...i think thats a pretty fair deal
- bulet13

Those aren't cap hits... Weber has a cap hit of 7.8, Toews and Kane 10.5...
pinkfloydfreak
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.13.2012

Jun 28 @ 10:12 AM ET
Not really worried about where the goals are going to come from, and here is why.

Last year Giroux and Voracek combined for 34 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they can increase that total to at least 42. Nor is it unreasonable to expect Konecny to have a small increase, say from 11 to 15.
That brings us to +12

Now lets assume that column A is replaced by column B in the lineup
A/B
Weal and Cousins/Lindblom
Schenn/Patrick
Read and partial Filpulla/full season of Filpulla
VdV/Laughton or Lehtera
PEB and Raffl (52 games)/Raffl (70 games)

The total goal output of everyone in column A was 72 goals.

I don't think the following is unreasonable either:
Lindblom 12 goals
Patrick 16 goals
Filpulla 12 goals
Laughton and Lehtera combined 10 goals
Raffl 12 goals

This totals to 62 goals

Overall that leaves us +2 from last year without taking into consideration the possibility of a better offensive year from Ghost and few more goals from Provorov. Last year they scored 219 goals, I don't think 225 is unreasonable and if they can slightly reduce the goals against from 236 to even just 230, than a slight improvement to 92-95 points is not out of the question. They probably still miss the playoffs, but at least they are moving in the right direction.

- BiggE


Lindblom, Filppula, and Raffl having 36 combined as an estimate I think is high. At least one of them will probably end up with pretty limited ice time and a lot of PK time.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:12 AM ET
Elliot Friedman reporting McDavid deal could be close. 8 years, $13.25M AAV
- PhillySportsGuy


Manning could still get under his skin.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 28 @ 10:13 AM ET
26 seconds could amount to a 2nd or 3rd pair role. I'm not sure how St Louis ran their PK under Hitch and Yeo. Also that could be affected by the amount of penalties the Blues took per game. Too many factors to say he can't do it here because he did only 26 seconds there.
- dragonoffrost




If he cant kill penalties at least as the 2nd or 3rd option he really is useless. He cant seem to produce offensively.

Though on the plus side he will be an improvement to the 4th line.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:13 AM ET
asdf jkl;
- MBFlyerfan

show off
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 28 @ 10:13 AM ET
Manning could still get under his skin.
- Scoob

jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 28 @ 10:13 AM ET
I am just wondering how in the world they'll be able to replace the production from 76 and 78
- YuenglingJagr


Wear bigger skates
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Jun 28 @ 10:14 AM ET
this is a joke right?
- bulet13


Not a joke. 100% serious.

No one player is worth that much cap space.

And if McDavid gets something in the 13 mil a year range, imagine what Draisaitl will want when his contract comes up. It has a domino effect.

Look how Chicago is hamstrung by their 2 contracts.

You dont win without depth.

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