Tanner is stirring the pot with the Hawks fans...
- geta02it

Some moves are necessary- but I would have never kept Lundquist over Raanta... The King is old and will be trending downwards- should have tried to sell high...

Just a few nuggets from awards voting.

Klefbom was 5th in Lady Byng
Talbot 4th in Vezina

Oh and Justin Shultz...10th in Norris votes.

Some moves are necessary- but I would have never kept Lundquist over Raanta... The King is old and will be trending downwards- should have tried to sell high...
- saskoil21

The "king" is 35, has an iron clad NMC and an 8.5 million dollar cap hit until he is 40. Good luck moving that.

The "king" is 35, has an iron clad NMC and an 8.5 million dollar cap hit until he is 40. Good luck moving that.
- smellmyfinger

I know- but I bet they could have traded with Vegas... Could you imagine the King in vegas?

Just a few nuggets from awards voting.

Klefbom was 5th in Lady Byng
Talbot 4th in Vezina

Oh and Justin Shultz...10th in Norris votes.
- Iggysbff

Bob Mac had Klef 3rd in Byng votes...

I know- but I bet they could have traded with Vegas... Could you imagine the King in vegas?
- saskoil21

Just a few nuggets from awards voting.

Klefbom was 5th in Lady Byng
Talbot 4th in Vezina

Oh and Justin Shultz...10th in Norris votes.
- Iggysbff

Jultz was 'Oilerd' in development... Then MacTs choice in Eakins finished the poor (frank)er... Then the fans- myself included ran him out of town... So either Jultz flourishing is due to being surrounded by competent defense- or a competent coach or needed more time to develop- pick your poison but the Oilers had none at the time...

I don't understand the last three. I actually suprising get the Possesion and Goals for though.

Still, I think the eye test is the best way to go.
- FransNielson

This may take a bit, but bare with it.

To examine Russell, I'll use the last 4 years as my sample size as this is the time in which he's been used as a top-4 Dman.

Well, as you know, Corsi For (CF%) is the most popular method of "advanced analysis" as it offers a pretty general picture of how many shot attempts a player is on for. It has a number of weaknesses and is in my opinion an awful gauge for a judging a single player. Russell's CF% over the past 4 years average out to 44.4%. 46.4% last year, 45.3% a year ago, 43% 2 years ago and 43.5% 3 years ago.

Goals For (GF%) is pretty self-explanatory. Percentage of goals for a player's team when he's on the ice. Russell's has been 51.2% over the past 4 years. 54.7% last year, 47.7% the year prior, 56.1% 2 years prior and 46.1% the 3rd year prior.

Those alone paint the picture of an awful Dman that had two lucky years in either on-ice shooting % or on-ice save %. But there's more.

Fenwick For (FF%) is simply Corsi that removes the blocked shot attempts and thus eliminates the penalties that players like Russell suffer as a result of using one of their skills (shot blocking). Russell's FF% over the past 4 years have been 49.2% last year, 47.4% a year ago, 44.1% 2 years ago and 45.9% 3 years ago.

Considering that he played on some pretty awful Calgary teams during those 3 years, the uptick from last year should come as no surprise. Considering his role as a member of one of two consistent shutdown pairings (35% of his time against Elites as per the WoodMoneys), I'd argue that a 49.2% FF is actually a pretty solid number.

Now, to reapproach that goals for % stats from another angle and to tackle the "luck" argument that rightfully comes up when high on-ice %s are achieved, I wish to point to Russell's GF% relative to his team. For this I'll extend all the way back to his rookie year for a larger sample size.

Russell GF%/Team GF% (Difference)

2016-17: 54.7%/53.8% (+0.9%)
2015-16: 47.7%/48.4% (-0.7%)
2014-15: 56.1%/44.6% (+11.5%)
2013-14: 46.1%/42.4% (+3.7%)
2012-13: 54.8%/48.2% (+6.6%)
2011-12: 59.7%/51.6% (+8.1%)
2010-11: 47.5%/47.2% (+0.3%)
2009-10: 54.3%/42.1% (+12.3%)
2008-09: 48%/54.5% (-6.5%)
2007-08: 40%/47.2% (-7.2%)

I left the years from 2007-09 into this calculation for the sake of transparency of debate and to show that I wasn't avoiding them intentionally, but I believe they are statistically insignificant when faced with the rest of his career. As they are his first two years in the league, it's fair to assume an adjustment period.

With that in mind, as you can see here, Russell has consistently outperformed his teammates in GF% metric (a stat that I value highly over large samples like this) throughout his career. Regardless of where he's playing on the roster, he consistently shows better results in the most important category than his teammates. He is EVIDENTLY doing something right.

For one final point, I don't believe his GA/60 totals will stay anywhere near as low as they were last year. He's due for some regression to the mean in on-ice save % (from a gaudy 93.8% closer to his average of around 92%) but I also foresee an increase in his on-ice shooting % (from 7.5% closer to his career average of around 8.5%). We are likely to see a decline in his results this coming year overall, but likely not enough for me to say he isn't still a capable top-4 Dman.

TL;DR I don't think Russell is nearly as bad as many "analytics" folks say as I believe they misuse and isolate singular metrics like Corsi without recognizing or presenting context. In my opinion, he's a capable 2nd pairing Dman.

Jultz was 'Oilerd' in development... Then MacTs choice in Eakins finished the poor (frank)er... Then the fans- myself included ran him out of town... So either Jultz flourishing is due to being surrounded by competent defense- or a competent coach or needed more time to develop- pick your poison but the Oilers had none at the time...
- saskoil21

Sergei Gonchar and Mike Sullivan have done wonders for his game and confidence. I'm not gonna blame TMac as he got a mentally-broken version of Schultz, but no way would Jim Johnson be able to relate to Schultz the way Gonchar could.

Just a few nuggets from awards voting.

Klefbom was 5th in Lady Byng
Talbot 4th in Vezina

Oh and Justin Shultz...10th in Norris votes.
- Iggysbff

And Chia and Russell #1 and #2 in your heart!!

And Chia and Russell #1 and #2 in your heart!!
- NEONDOUBLEDION

I'm not one of the big Russell haters. But that contract for him is awful.

This may take a bit, but bare with it.

To examine Russell, I'll use the last 4 years as my sample size as this is the time in which he's been used as a top-4 Dman.

Well, as you know, Corsi For (CF%) is the most popular method of "advanced analysis" as it offers a pretty general picture of how many shot attempts a player is on for. It has a number of weaknesses and is in my opinion an awful gauge for a judging a single player. Russell's CF% over the past 4 years average out to 44.4%. 46.4% last year, 45.3% a year ago, 43% 2 years ago and 43.5% 3 years ago.

Goals For (GF%) is pretty self-explanatory. Percentage of goals for a player's team when he's on the ice. Russell's has been 51.2% over the past 4 years. 54.7% last year, 47.7% the year prior, 56.1% 2 years prior and 46.1% the 3rd year prior.

Those alone paint the picture of an awful Dman that had two lucky years in either on-ice shooting % or on-ice save %. But there's more.

Fenwick For (FF%) is simply Corsi that removes the blocked shot attempts and thus eliminates the penalties that players like Russell suffer as a result of using one of their skills (shot blocking). Russell's FF% over the past 4 years have been 49.2% last year, 47.4% a year ago, 44.1% 2 years ago and 45.9% 3 years ago.

Considering that he played on some pretty awful Calgary teams during those 3 years, the uptick from last year should come as no surprise. Considering his role as a member of one of two consistent shutdown pairings (35% of his time against Elites as per the WoodMoneys), I'd argue that a 49.2% FF is actually a pretty solid number.

Now, to reapproach that goals for % stats from another angle and to tackle the "luck" argument that rightfully comes up when high on-ice %s are achieved, I wish to point to Russell's GF% relative to his team. For this I'll extend all the way back to his rookie year for a larger sample size.

Russell GF%/Team GF% (Difference)

2016-17: 54.7%/53.8% (+0.9%)
2015-16: 47.7%/48.4% (-0.7%)
2014-15: 56.1%/44.6% (+11.5%)
2013-14: 46.1%/42.4% (+3.7%)
2012-13: 54.8%/48.2% (+6.6%)
2011-12: 59.7%/51.6% (+8.1%)
2010-11: 47.5%/47.2% (+0.3%)
2009-10: 54.3%/42.1% (+12.3%)
2008-09: 48%/54.5% (-6.5%)
2007-08: 40%/47.2% (-7.2%)

I left the years from 2007-09 into this calculation for the sake of transparency of debate and to show that I wasn't avoiding them intentionally, but I believe they are statistically insignificant when faced with the rest of his career. As they are his first two years in the league, it's fair to assume an adjustment period.

With that in mind, as you can see here, Russell has consistently outperformed his teammates in GF% metric (a stat that I value highly over large samples like this) throughout his career. Regardless of where he's playing on the roster, he consistently shows better results in the most important category than his teammates. He is EVIDENTLY doing something right.

For one final point, I don't believe his GA/60 totals will stay anywhere near as low as they were last year. He's due for some regression to the mean in on-ice save % (from a gaudy 93.8% closer to his average of around 92%) but I also foresee an increase in his on-ice shooting % (from 7.5% closer to his career average of around 8.5%). We are likely to see a decline in his results this coming year overall, but likely not enough for me to say he isn't still a capable top-4 Dman.

TL;DR I don't think Russell is nearly as bad as many "analytics" folks say as I believe they misuse and isolate singular metrics like Corsi without recognizing or presenting context. In my opinion, he's a capable 2nd pairing Dman.
- MaximumBone

Did you just use Corsi to prove that Russell was a good defender

Did you just use Corsi to prove that Russell was a good defender
- FransNielson

No, I devalued Corsi as tool to assess a single player and instead utilized other statistics that take context into account to lay out what causes some concerns around the player and used goals for % as the foundation for my stance on him.

I can see why he's polarizing to most of the hockey community, but I think many of the issues raised by the analytics community are almost fear-mongering over the perception that a Corsi rating creates.

Chiarelli is keeping good locker room gritty sacrifice everything type players that get the job done. He is moving out weak players that hold the team back.

The proof is in the pudding. No matter how many advanced stats he wrecks the guy is absolutely a top 4 defender. A #4 to be fair but with the ability to play either side. The Oilers record and eye test heavily reinforce this.

4 x 4 is certainly not an ideal contract. I don't think Chiarelli himself is happy about that but getting top 4 defenders is tough. The Oilers spent years trying to round up 4 guys that can handle the quality of competition. Now that they have it and people complain.

People with a lick of hockey sense and eyes that can see know Russell helps the team win. Ditto Larsson. Someone who thinks neither are that good...

Everybody would prefer cheaper and less term.

Its time for Nurse to take the next step and Benning is arguably even closer to that next step. Using one of those guys and Russell will most certainly be a rough pairing but growth from within at this point needs to happen for many reasons.

Not ideal but certainly "acceptable" under the circumstances. I hope Sekera comes back soon.

Shots against and possession were awful with Russel on the ice. WHats to argue here? ?

I'd've been cool with a year cause of the position we're in with sekers injury. Maybe even 2. But pc just got suckered . And the no move !?
I thought he was smarter than this.
- Ihateallofu

Not a no-move. A limited NTC in the last 2 years of the deal.

I'm not one of the big Russell haters. But that contract for him is awful.
- Iggysbff

two years too long

Interesting note about Russell is that, if the Oilers can face adversity and make the playoffs again next year, it'll be the first time in Russell's career that he's spent the majority of his year playing on a winning team. [insert quip about "helping his teams win"]

For clarity, I'm not blaming Russell for his teams not being successful; just pointing out something I noticed.

Interesting note about Russell is that, if the Oilers can face adversity and make the playoffs again next year, it'll be the first time in Russell's career that he's spent the majority of his year playing on a winning team.
- MaximumBone[insert quip about "helping his teams win"]

For clarity, I'm not blaming Russell for his teams not being successful; just pointing out something I noticed.

What people fail to realize about the deal structure is Russel becomes very tradable in his final two years, especially to teams looking to hit the cap floor.

You're right Matt. Maybe we should think outside the box and sign another Belov or promote Ethan Bear out of junior. I'm sure with Sekera being out at the start of the season that hole could have been filled by a player of that nature. You numbers guys drive me crazy.Play the actual game, understand what it takes and relate that to the guys like Russell (although not an All-Star point producer) who contribute every night. He's taking the punishment for the most part (blocking shots and sacrificing the body) when he's on the ice and still a functional defenseman. Don't see a hell of a lot of that these days for less then what he's making. ( Alot of guys in that price range signed in 2012-2013. Not quite today's market value) I personally think you need to get over it already and stop hating on the guy every time his name comes up. Every blog since he signed last year has a jab in it. The Oilers are a better team with him on it. Oh and by the way, they pay him with Katz's money in case you thought you were on the hook for it.

What people fail to realize about the deal structure is Russel becomes very tradable in his final two years, especially to teams looking to hit the cap floor.
- Reveen.

The final year is the only really enticing year. 2.5mil at a 4mil cap hit would be a pretty easy hit to move to a budget team around that time and 3 years was the outer marker for when I believe Russell will still be effective so it syncs up. I still don't like it, but once Sekera's injury was announced, Russell's camp had most of the power.

Which two Dmen could we sign in UFA that would bring better results? Hainsey and Beauchemin are too slow and getting worse by the day, Kulikov would be a downgrade and likely cost the same, Markov is likely going back to Montreal or retiring, etc. Now, at least we only need one. Daley, Smith and Del Zotto are the only ones I consider, but the first two will likely want too much cap or term.

We'll likely need to make a trade to bring in the guy to plug the hole.

Chiarelli is keeping good locker room gritty sacrifice everything type players that get the job done. He is moving out weak players that hold the team back.

The proof is in the pudding. No matter how many advanced stats he wrecks the guy is absolutely a top 4 defender. A #4 to be fair but with the ability to play either side. The Oilers record and eye test heavily reinforce this.

4 x 4 is certainly not an ideal contract. I don't think Chiarelli himself is happy about that but getting top 4 defenders is tough. The Oilers spent years trying to round up 4 guys that can handle the quality of competition. Now that they have it and people complain.

People with a lick of hockey sense and eyes that can see know Russell helps the team win. Ditto Larsson. Someone who thinks neither are that good...

Everybody would prefer cheaper and less term.

Its time for Nurse to take the next step and Benning is arguably even closer to that next step. Using one of those guys and Russell will most certainly be a rough pairing but growth from within at this point needs to happen for many reasons.

Not ideal but certainly "acceptable" under the circumstances. I hope Sekera comes back soon.
- Aerchon

Good post.

Whether people liked it or not, I think with Sekera's injury everyone knew Russel would be resigned.

I am indifferent to resigning him though its a bit more than what I would have liked to have signed him for though it being a front loaded contract could make it easier to trade him down the road. Do we know anything about the supposed modified no movement clause?
- EastCoastOiler

Sekera injury or not the Oil were resigning Russell.

two years too long
- Reveen.

1M too much, 1 year too long.

Upset are you kidding me its f'n hilarious...
There isn't another team in this league that would have given Russell that contract and there are 31 that would do the Brodie deal again and again!
- geta02it

Brodie's deal is phenomenal
One of the leagues best

russels is awful. One of the leagues worst

Wtf was chiarelli thinking ? CRazy

1M too much, 1 year too long.
- McSavioursPupil

Pretty much agreed. I think 3.5mil still would've been a fair dollar value for what he brings, though.