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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Anticipation? Leaks may give us muc of Vegas' roster before tonight
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Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jun 21 @ 10:16 PM ET
I wonder if we'll be involved in any of these "trades in que." Any of our insiders hearing anything?
- Cup Crazy '07



might not be smith specifically, but i think they trade for someones rights. just a hunch
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Jun 21 @ 10:17 PM ET
I repeatedly said *tonight* that he's not top 5-10, also not bottom 5-10. He's average.

My point, is I wouldn't sign him long term until we see him under this coaching

- sbroads24


I'm not saying they should either. The debate was whether he was worth $4MM a year. And I'd be perfectly fine with paying him that for 2-3 years.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Jun 21 @ 10:18 PM ET
No, no, that's not right. They're taking Grubauer!
chilliard77
Location: NY
Joined: 08.23.2011

Jun 21 @ 10:18 PM ET
might not be smith specifically, but i think they trade for someones rights. just a hunch
- Sabresfan-365

I really hope we trade for Smith's rights. More often than not lately they end up signing
BigStew
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.09.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:19 PM ET
It doesn't have to be misleading.

Bylsma had a system that allowed a ton of easy shots. Lehner had it easy for the most part.

He had some good games, but I would bet $$ his Sv% is closer to Rinne's next year

- sbroads24


The other way to look at it is he saved a higher percentage of softer shots than his counterparts and in most games those easy shots outweigh the "danger area shots " by a large margin, so who is better off? I'm not sure but I think Lehner behind a good defence can be a good goalie.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jun 21 @ 10:21 PM ET
I really hope we trade for Smith's rights. More often than not lately they end up signing
- chilliard77



its a little trickier now that theres a "negotiation window" but generally speaking you can avoid bidding wars by trying to get out in front of it with some exclusive negotiating.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:21 PM ET
Vegas did some really dumb things IMO
chilliard77
Location: NY
Joined: 08.23.2011

Jun 21 @ 10:22 PM ET
its a little trickier now that theres a "negotiation window" but generally speaking you can avoid bidding wars by trying to get out in front of it with some exclusive negotiating.
- Sabresfan-365

Was bummed when Yandle and Goligoski both signed before FA last year
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Jun 21 @ 10:23 PM ET
Vegas did some really dumb things IMO
- jdfitz77


We still don't have the full details though. I'd say wait and reserve judgement for sometime later on tomorrow
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jun 21 @ 10:24 PM ET
Was bummed when Yandle and Goligoski both signed before FA last year
- chilliard77



back when bogo had value (and i use that term loosely) i wanted us to trade him and sign demers. Bummed me out
JetpackJesus
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Honolulu, HI
Joined: 08.27.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:29 PM ET
At one point close to the end of the year, we were giving up the 9th *least* 5 on 5 scoring chances in the league.

Which means more of Lehner's saves were actually easy.

That's the point 365 was making with Housley.

More active D = more chances against = a greater % of Lehners shots against will come where he struggles

- sbroads24


I question the value and legitimacy of the HDSV%. But assuming it's legit and valid, I can see the concern. In theory, under a Housley style defense, "high-danger" shots will comprise a much larger share of the total shots Lehner faces than over the past two seasons. So, If he's below average at stopping "high-danger" shots, then he will do much worse if "high-danger" shots make up a much greater share of the shots he faces.

I think the overly simplified examples below illustrate the concern (I have no idea if LDSV% is a thing, but I need another constant to establish the overall SV%):

Take a goalie that faces 200 total shots with an HDSV% of .900 and a low-danger SV% ("LDSV%") of .950.

Scenario A: 25% of shots are high danger and 75% are low danger. Goalie will have an overall SV% of .937 (187.5 goals allowed on 200 shots).

Scenario B: 75% of shots are HD and 25% are LD. Goalie will have an overall SV% of .9125 (182.5 goals allowed on 200 shots).

Of course, you're only going to buy into the argument if you buy into the HDSV% stat.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:30 PM ET
We still don't have the full details though. I'd say wait and reserve judgement for sometime later on tomorrow
- HonkFortheGoose



As of now... they really blew it

They could've put together a team that would have at least challenged for a playoff spot next year

And they've only gotten two extra 1st round picks

There's gonna have to be A LOT still to come to them to change my mind

Epic failure (so far) imo
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jun 21 @ 10:31 PM ET
I question the value and legitimacy of the HDSV%. But assuming it's legit and valid, I can see the concern. In theory, under a Housley style defense, "high-danger" shots will comprise a much larger share of the total shots Lehner faces than over the past two seasons. So, If he's below average at stopping "high-danger" shots, then he will do much worse if "high-danger" shots make up a much greater share of the shots he faces.

I think the overly simplified examples below illustrate the concern (I have no idea if LDSV% is a thing, but I need another constant to establish the overall SV%):

Take a goalie that faces 200 total shots with an HDSV% of .900 and a low-danger SV% ("LDSV%") of .950.

Scenario A: 25% of shots are high danger and 75% are low danger. Goalie will have an overall SV% of .937 (187.5 goals allowed on 200 shots).

Scenario B:75% of shots are HD and 25% are LD. Goalie will have an overall SV% of .9125 (182.5 goals allowed on 200 shots).

Of course, you're only going to buy into the argument if you buy into the HDSV% stat.

- JetpackJesus



curious why it is you dont buy into it? but yes you're right thats generally how i see it. simplest form as the underlying numbers for goaltenders is just a different animal altogether and its a position i admit im not overly familiar with.
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:38 PM ET
As of now... they really blew it

They could've put together a team that would have at least challenged for a playoff spot next year

And they've only gotten two extra 1st round picks

There's gonna have to be A LOT still to come to them to change my mind

Epic failure (so far) imo

- jdfitz77

They did exactly what they said they were gonna due, put together a good team not a cup team but a good team or playoff team and get draft picks.
chilliard77
Location: NY
Joined: 08.23.2011

Jun 21 @ 10:39 PM ET
back when bogo had value (and i use that term loosely) i wanted us to trade him and sign demers. Bummed me out
- Sabresfan-365

I was so mad when Demers was just sitting in free agency last year for weeks and we didn't sign him
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Jun 21 @ 10:41 PM ET
that Vegas team is holy poop bad

How can the NHL let them put out a team like that there is zero chance they win eight games next year
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:41 PM ET
that Vegas team is holy poop bad

How can the NHL let them put out a team like that there is zero chance they win eight games next year

- GERBE!!!75PTS

Jesus Christ
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jun 21 @ 10:44 PM ET
They did exactly what they said they were gonna due, put together a good team not a cup team but a good team or playoff team and get draft picks.
- SABRES 89

They didn't do as bad as it was looking like
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:45 PM ET
They didn't do as bad as it was looking like
- sbroads24

Besides MAF, they blew it in the goal tending area
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jun 21 @ 10:45 PM ET
I question the value and legitimacy of the HDSV%. But assuming it's legit and valid, I can see the concern. In theory, under a Housley style defense, "high-danger" shots will comprise a much larger share of the total shots Lehner faces than over the past two seasons. So, If he's below average at stopping "high-danger" shots, then he will do much worse if "high-danger" shots make up a much greater share of the shots he faces.

I think the overly simplified examples below illustrate the concern (I have no idea if LDSV% is a thing, but I need another constant to establish the overall SV%):

Take a goalie that faces 200 total shots with an HDSV% of .900 and a low-danger SV% ("LDSV%") of .950.

Scenario A: 25% of shots are high danger and 75% are low danger. Goalie will have an overall SV% of .937 (187.5 goals allowed on 200 shots).

Scenario B: 75% of shots are HD and 25% are LD. Goalie will have an overall SV% of .9125 (182.5 goals allowed on 200 shots).

Of course, you're only going to buy into the argument if you buy into the HDSV% stat.

- JetpackJesus

Pretty much.

I don't think he's garbage. I think he's a middle of the road starter who will probably get around the league during his career
Mentalorgasm5
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "F-" Robert, NY
Joined: 06.29.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:45 PM ET
that Vegas team is holy poop bad

How can the NHL let them put out a team like that there is zero chance they win eight games next year

- GERBE!!!75PTS

jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:47 PM ET
They did exactly what they said they were gonna due, put together a good team not a cup team but a good team or playoff team and get draft picks.
- SABRES 89



I don't think it's a good team, they look pretty sucky

And they only acquired 2 picks in the 1st


They failed on both accounts imo
SABRES 89
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I'm very Happy to be here. Las Vegas Via Buffalo N.Y.
Joined: 02.17.2007

Jun 21 @ 10:49 PM ET
I don't think it's a good team, they look pretty sucky

And they only acquired 2 picks in the 1st


They failed on both accounts imo

- jdfitz77

3 picks in the 1st round this year and they failed ?
chilliard77
Location: NY
Joined: 08.23.2011

Jun 21 @ 10:54 PM ET
I'd take Mrazek over Hosek, and Dumba over Tuch, probably Poirier or Shinkaruk over Engelland
turbo044
Joined: 02.18.2009

Jun 21 @ 10:55 PM ET
I don't think it's a good team, they look pretty sucky

And they only acquired 2 picks in the 1st


They failed on both accounts imo

- jdfitz77


There was talk of them having up to 6 1st rounders. Unfortunately for them. Not everybody was as stupid as garth snow. Still, they have a ton of dmen and a lot of teams need dmen. Don't be surprised if buffalo grabs one of them. Gmtm won't go big but - Theodore and Neil for kane, faeshing and a 2nd?
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