Bryan Bickell. Wow.

Goalies that save more shots from less dangerous areas are better goalies. They save shots more consistently, and don't let in garbage goals.
- Mentalorgasm5

I had a nice long paragraph typed and lost it because of the (frank)ing ads on this site.

Basically, low danger shots are a lot more even across the board, and there are a lot more of them, so they don't have a huge effect on sv%.

High danger shots or just basic scoring chances more accurately reflect goalies skill.

If your goalie lets in 1 of every 5 high danger or scoring chances, then you are most likely catering your Defense to preventing chances, which also can have an effect on your offensive strategy.

I'd rather have a goalie that can stop a 2 on 1 than one that can stop 15 shots from the point.

You'd think, but it's the NHL so I tempered expectations.
- Wetbandit1

They are in this for the picks. If they get 3 players for the future (2 years from now) I would say that is a lot.

My guess is there's more to the story and we'll find out tomorrow.
- HonkFortheGoose

I supposed that's possible...
but they announced the other deals tonight

Weird

I had a nice long paragraph typed and lost it because of the (frank)ing ads on this site.

Basically, low danger shots are a lot more even across the board, and there are a lot more of them, so they don't have a huge effect on sv%.

High danger shots or just basic scoring chances more accurately reflect goalies skill.

If your goalie lets in 1 of every 5 high danger or scoring chances, then you are most likely catering your Defense to preventing chances, which also can have an effect on your offensive strategy.

I'd rather have a goalie that can stop a 2 on 1 than one that can stop 15 shots from the point.
- sbroads24

I'd rather have a team that doesn't give up 2 on 1 chances so I don't need my goalie to worry about anything but shots from the point.

I supposed that's possible...
but they announced the other deals tonight

Weird
- jdfitz77

Could be a trade that's worked out that involves more moving parts overall. There's still going to be stuff announced tomorrow from what I heard, so there's probably more than meets the eye right now.

The most they could have is 13 because they had to draft 9 and only get 4 "extra" roster players. They have to have 14 forwards and 3 goalies as well.
- HonkFortheGoose

Meant to type 12 or 13, but good catch! Yea, any D over 26 will be traded in the next 2 days. Might get D back, but those are gone, they can sign FA too, so they might trade 8 of the D they selected.

I had a nice long paragraph typed and lost it because of the (frank)ing ads on this site.

Basically, low danger shots are a lot more even across the board, and there are a lot more of them, so they don't have a huge effect on sv%.

High danger shots or just basic scoring chances more accurately reflect goalies skill.

If your goalie lets in 1 of every 5 high danger or scoring chances, then you are most likely catering your Defense to preventing chances, which also can have an effect on your offensive strategy.

I'd rather have a goalie that can stop a 2 on 1 than one that can stop 15 shots from the point.
- sbroads24

U can't strictly go by that though
Some high danger chances are a lot tougher to save than others

I had a nice long paragraph typed and lost it because of the (frank)ing ads on this site.

Basically, low danger shots are a lot more even across the board, and there are a lot more of them, so they don't have a huge effect on sv%.

High danger shots or just basic scoring chances more accurately reflect goalies skill.

If your goalie lets in 1 of every 5 high danger or scoring chances, then you are most likely catering your Defense to preventing chances, which also can have an effect on your offensive strategy.

I'd rather have a goalie that can stop a 2 on 1 than one that can stop 15 shots from the point.
- sbroads24

Disagree!

Exactly.
- Mentalorgasm5

The math really can be misleading and it's not exactly that simple as the weighting can be skewed but you can't just look at a selection of "high danger shots" and take them as gospel as you also have to consider who is shooting, what teams are getting those better quality chances, etc. Statisticians can make pretty much anything look really good or really bad depending on what story they are trying to tell.

Could be a trade that's worked out that involves more moving parts overall. There's still going to be stuff announced tomorrow from what I heard, so there's probably more than meets the eye right now.
- HonkFortheGoose

I guess that makes sense... we'll see

There's not too many guys I'd want us to trade for from Vegas
They took some sh!tty players

I doubt they're gonna get much for the slew of 4/5 defensemen they took

I'd rather have a team that doesn't give up 2 on 1 chances so I don't need my goalie to worry about anything but shots from the point.
- HonkFortheGoose

At one point close to the end of the year, we were giving up the 9th *least* 5 on 5 scoring chances in the league.

Which means more of Lehner's saves were actually easy.

That's the point 365 was making with Housley.

More active D = more chances against = a greater % of Lehners shots against will come where he struggles

The math really can be misleading and it's not exactly that simple as the weighting can be skewed but you can't just look at a selection of "high danger shots" and take them as gospel as you also have to consider who is shooting, what teams are getting those better quality chances, etc. Statisticians can make pretty much anything look really good or really bad depending on what story they are trying to tell.
- BigStew

This I know firsthand, which is why it is so frustrating when people are trying to break apart stats. I know exactly what they are doing.

Oh yes. That was when Def Leppard performed before the 2008 season kicked off.

Joe Elliott later said of the incident:
- JetpackJesus

Hated Def Lepard for good after that. Lame. DefLepard was cool the first album. Then they realized selling tunes to chicks was where the $ was at and they sold out bad.

Lehner (frank)ing stinks. Everyone stinks.

The math really can be misleading and it's not exactly that simple as the weighting can be skewed but you can't just look at a selection of "high danger shots" and take them as gospel as you also have to consider who is shooting, what teams are getting those better quality chances, etc. Statisticians can make pretty much anything look really good or really bad depending on what story they are trying to tell.
- BigStew

It doesn't have to be misleading.

Bylsma had a system that allowed a ton of easy shots. Lehner had it easy for the most part.

He had some good games, but I would bet $$ his Sv% is closer to Rinne's next year

I had a nice long paragraph typed and lost it because of the (frank)ing ads on this site.

Basically, low danger shots are a lot more even across the board, and there are a lot more of them, so they don't have a huge effect on sv%.

High danger shots or just basic scoring chances more accurately reflect goalies skill.

If your goalie lets in 1 of every 5 high danger or scoring chances, then you are most likely catering your Defense to preventing chances, which also can have an effect on your offensive strategy.

I'd rather have a goalie that can stop a 2 on 1 than one that can stop 15 shots from the point.
- sbroads24

But total save percentage factors in both of them. So it gives you an overall reflection on everything, which is a stronger indicator on how a goalie is performing.

This I know firsthand, which is why it is so frustrating when people are trying to break apart stats. I know exactly what they are doing.
- Mentalorgasm5

Not directed at you, but it's also frustrating when someone gets entrenched with a single stat like Sv%, then claims stats aren't the "end al be all"

At one point close to the end of the year, we were giving up the 9th *least* 5 on 5 scoring chances in the league.

Which means more of Lehner's saves were actually easy.

That's the point 365 was making with Housley.

More active D = more chances against = a greater % of Lehners shots against will come where he struggles
- sbroads24

The defense should be better all around. So shouldn't that help?

You're making it sound like our D is going to be worse, and that's pretty unlikely.

But continue your hate fest on Lehner because we traded our 1st round pick for him.

You never even gave him a chance. You wrote him off the moment that trade was made.

Not directed at you, but it's also frustrating when someone gets entrenched with a single stat like Sv%, then claims stats aren't the "end al be all"
- sbroads24

I don't think he is that great, but I don't think he is bad. They can win with him, just as well as any other goalie in the league.

Sadly, 5 million for a goalie is not that high for a goalie anymore. This is what goalies cost now, it is the only reason why I don't care if we pay him 5 million.

Everybody sucks and I have math to prove it.
- Der Kaiser

lucky you

But total save percentage factors in both of them. So it gives you an overall reflection on everything, which is a stronger indicator on how a goalie is performing.
- Mentalorgasm5

It really doesn't. It reflects the team more than anything


It helps explain why the Sabres were so conservative. Lehner wasn't trusted with an open style of play.

Let's put it this way, Lehner can stop a good number of shots under Dan Bylsma. Under Phil Housley might be a totally different story

The defense should be better all around. So shouldn't that help?

You're making it sound like our D is going to be worse, and that's pretty unlikely.

But continue your hate fest on Lehner because we traded our 1st round pick for him.

You never even gave him a chance. You wrote him off the moment that trade was made.
- HonkFortheGoose

i believe it will definitely score more, i question whether it will actually defend better.

I dont hate lehner because we traded a first for him, i hate murray for that.

I dont hate lehner at all, i just dont think we should commit to him, yet.

Edit: saw 365 and thought this was @me. my b

The defense should be better all around. So shouldn't that help?

You're making it sound like our D is going to be worse, and that's pretty unlikely.

But continue your hate fest on Lehner because we traded our 1st round pick for him.

You never even gave him a chance. You wrote him off the moment that trade was made.
- HonkFortheGoose

I repeatedly said *tonight* that he's not top 5-10, also not bottom 5-10. He's average.

My point, is I wouldn't sign him long term until we see him under this coaching

I wonder if we'll be involved in any of these "trades in que." Any of our insiders hearing anything?