From Plus/Minus a week ago:

PLUS: Somebody is going to buy low on Matt Duchene and reap a crap-load of benefits


So when you sat buy low, you meant a 5th rounder?

I love the fact that a player who sucks at defence and has hit 70 points only once is so beloved that no one will even consider the alternative.

This is the most accurate least controversial thing I've ever written.
- James_Tanner

And winning 62.6% of your faceoffs is a bad thing for defence for your team? I did a search for Faceoff win % with minimum 70 games played and min 1000 faceoffs taken and Duchene is first in the league. You can't blame the guy for winning the faceoffs and his teammates not being able to keep possession of the puck or clearing the zone on the PK! That's the thing people don't get that if Duchene had better linemates or defensemen behind him to keep possession of the puck when wins the faceoffs this wouldn't even be a debate about his defense capabilities!

The facts are as follows:

For Duchene's entire career, his team has allowed significantly more shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances and goals when he's been on the ice than they've gotten.

He is an offense only, one dimensional player who is terrible defensively.

His career high is 30 goals and 70 points.

In eight seasons, he's been over 60 points just twice.

Matt Duchene's closest comparable is probably Mike Ribiero, who has six 60 point seasons and a career high of 83. (Career high 27 goals).

Both are fine players, but I think we can agree that Ribiero has never been treated or considered as big a star as Duchene.

Again, if I'm under selling him, anyone is free to offer a counter-analysis that doesn't include him being named to Team Canada, or offers the excuse his team is bad.

Lots of players excel on bad teams. Sidney Crosby once scored 100 points and then his team drafted Malkin.
- james_tanner1

Now you are comparing him to one of the best players to ever play the game in Crosby? That's not fair to Duchene who was never expected to be one of those Elite Generational player!

Depends on the team, system and linemates. There are some fits, cap be damned, including 1901 W. Madison St.

A lot of players get better in there late 20's.....

Dafuq? I may need to Google the pens draft history but I'm pretty sure Malkin was drafted before Crosby. Really showing off your hockey knowledge with this one Jimmy Tan Tan
- leonkennedy

Well then they drafted Jordan Stall, who ____ cares? Same point.

2016 face offs

1. Duchene - 62.6% / 1100 total
76. Kadri - 48% / 1134 total

Career face off % duchene 52 - Kadri 46

2016 shooting %

Kadri - 13.6
Duchene - 11.3

Career %
Duchene 12.2 v Kadri 11.2

Kadri also had incredible luck on the PP this year, scoring 12 goals.

Career PPG

Duchene .73
Kadri .63

And Duchene's most common line mate in 2016-17? Matt freakin' Nieto.

There isn't a team in the East besides Pit that doesn't install Duchene as their #1 or #2 center immediately and not become better.

Ask Montreal, who couldn't seem to win a big draw with anyone besides Plekanec (Gally @ 35% btw) vs the Rangers.

And all of this figured out with 10 mins on my phone.
- Bob2119

Matt Duchene is a net negative player. What else is their to day? Faceoffs have nothing to do with winning and are completely irrelevant.

Re: Kadri's improvement

I really think it is Babcock's influence. He is like Anthony Robbins dropping F-bombs while slapping you in the face. Kadri (and the rest of them) have learned that it is up to THEM to excel, so yes, they have done it themselves, but Babs planted the seed in between their ears.
- JLO961

The Babcock thing is just a lazy narrative. Kadri was one of the best players in hockey the year before Babcock arrived and shot 2% October through February.

From Plus/Minus a week ago:

PLUS: Somebody is going to buy low on Matt Duchene and reap a crap-load of benefits


So when you sat buy low, you meant a 5th rounder?
- Cloud

If he's available for a second rounder then it''s a great buy low opportunity. If he's being swapped for Galchenyuk, then it's a horrible move for Montreal.

A lot of players get better in there late 20's.....
- Mahewman

Well no, statistically the vast majority of players peak between 23-25.

Matt Duchene is a net negative player. What else is their to day? Faceoffs have nothing to do with winning and are completely irrelevant.
- james_tanner1

Faceoffs have nothing to do with winning? LOL Tanner seriously just delete your account. Actually don't, your blogs are hilarious and provide great entertainment but this one takes the cake. And you sound even more ridiculous than you usually do trying to defend yourself.

Thank you for the morning laugh, it's always good to start the day with some comedy.

Faceoffs have nothing to do with winning? LOL Tanner seriously just delete your account. Actually don't, your blogs are hilarious and provide great entertainment but this one takes the cake. And you sound even more ridiculous than you usually do trying to defend yourself.

Thank you for the morning laugh, it's always good to start the day with some comedy.
- Brzlnut

It's hard to be a smart person in today's world where everyone has internet access. You're wrong, and you're laughing at the guy who is right and knows better.

Could it be a case where we each have our own subjective opinion and noone is right or wrong? Nope. Math says I'm right.

There is zero correlation between winning hockey games and winning faceoffs.

Matt Duchene is a net negative player. What else is their to day? Faceoffs have nothing to do with winning and are completely irrelevant.
- james_tanner1

Dude I know you are oddly dug in here, but faceoffs are important. Besides the fact that it leads to immediate possession, it also leads to scoring. Roughly 11% of all goals are scored within 11 seconds of a faceoff win in the offensive zone. 64% are scored off if a controlled entry into the zone, of which one of the ways that happens more often than not is throught a faceoff win. Lastly, if you are using Corsi or Fenwick as a predictor of likely outcomes, you need to possess the puck to creat a shot.

There are lots of studies that show that faceoff drive goal differential. Like this one - http://statsportsconsulti.../FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

Overall, You are conflating one good year of Kadri's stats with one year of Duchene's bad stats to reach this conclusion.

You take the names out of it and without fail the vast majority would take a faceoff winning .75 point per game scorer over a 48% faceoff winner with a .65 point per game average every day.

Finally, look at Cup winning teams. A common occurance is depth a center. Chicago, Pittsburg, Kings, etc, all had strong 1-2 punches at center. Duchene would be a welcome addition to about every legit contender.

Well no, statistically the vast majority of players peak between 23-25.
- james_tanner1

Show us, Mr. MA. I dare you, again.

James

Waiting for another insightful post from you explaining how the best team in the NHL isn't hoisting the cup.

WE GOT 5 you got 3 presidents banners

I didn't point out here that I feel Duchene is overrated as well.Maybe not as much as Tanner is saying , but yeah .Still though he has put up good numbers on a really bad team.I think there is much that analytics still have to uncover
https://youtu.be/RlXq2xeYwk4

Duchene had a bad year on a terrible team. Reminds me a lot of the Kessel situation in Toronto. I'll gladly take him on the Pens next season.

The facts are as follows:

For Duchene's entire career, his team has allowed significantly more shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances and goals when he's been on the ice than they've gotten.

He is an offense only, one dimensional player who is terrible defensively.

His career high is 30 goals and 70 points.

In eight seasons, he's been over 60 points just twice.

Matt Duchene's closest comparable is probably Mike Ribiero, who has six 60 point seasons and a career high of 83. (Career high 27 goals).

Both are fine players, but I think we can agree that Ribiero has never been treated or considered as big a star as Duchene.

Again, if I'm under selling him, anyone is free to offer a counter-analysis that doesn't include him being named to Team Canada, or offers the excuse his team is bad.

Lots of players excel on bad teams. Sidney Crosby once scored 100 points and then his team drafted Malkin.
- james_tanner1

Fair point. I'm not super high on Duchene either. He is fast and has great skill. Inconsistent and prone to loafing though

It's hard to be a smart person in today's world where everyone has internet access. You're wrong, and you're laughing at the guy who is right and knows better.

Could it be a case where we each have our own subjective opinion and noone is right or wrong? Nope. Math says I'm right.

There is zero correlation between winning hockey games and winning faceoffs.
- james_tanner1

Right because when has winning a draw ever lead to something positive like puck possession, goals...
Not like they matter in the game of hockey.

The new thing for wannabe fancystatters is faceoffs don't matter.

You can look at Duchene through fancy stats, just like any player in the league. What fancystats don't easily depict is who they play with and the system they play in.

If you bothered to look at the team as a whole since Duchene has arrived, you'd see the Avs have never been a positive possession or shot suppression team.

It's been an issue since Joe Sacco coached his first game.

Now, if you don't breeze through your typical advanced stats, you'd find some interesting stats regarding Duchene that support many fans opinion, that he is a phenomenal player that has consistently carried his lines and been dealt poop linemates since...ever. Tanner, put away the fancy stats. Watch some Avalanche games, see what Duchene really does. But, being a pompous bumhole that you are, I'm sure you will rely on spreadsheet data.

James, it seems to me you actually like sticking your foot in your mouth and that's after taking a stroll through the local doggie park, where a few people forgot about the scoop part.

"maybe he'll be the rare player who gets better in his late 20s."

Claire Alexander. If you never heard of him, wiki him

It's hard to be a smart person in today's world where everyone has internet access. You're wrong, and you're laughing at the guy who is right and knows better.

Could it be a case where we each have our own subjective opinion and noone is right or wrong? Nope. Math says I'm right.

There is zero correlation between winning hockey games and winning faceoffs.
- james_tanner1

Arrogance exceeds narcissistic tone in this one, James....

PROVE your math is right. You can't. Just like you can't prove players peak at age 23-25.

Show all the lesser educated folks here, oh MA graduate.

What color is the sky in your world, James?