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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Draft Thoughts, Flyers at Worlds and More
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PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 2 @ 2:59 PM ET
Sign Ghost long-term
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 2 @ 3:02 PM ET
Sign Ghost long-term
- PhillySportsGuy

Longest I'd go is 6 years, as long as the aav is 4.5 mil or less. Would prefer 5 years.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 3:14 PM ET
Gonna put some crow in the freezer for all of you short termers
hrocks66
Location: climbing through the wreckage Of all my twisted dreams
Joined: 10.25.2014

May 2 @ 3:33 PM ET
Gonna put some crow in the freezer for all of you short termers
- YuenglingJagr


are you going to put it on a stick first??
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 2 @ 3:34 PM ET
are you going to put it on a stick first??
- hrocks66


and beer batter it?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 2 @ 3:37 PM ET
Longest I'd go is 6 years, as long as the aav is 4.5 mil or less. Would prefer 5 years.
- BiggE


In my mind, Ghost is already a $4.5M player and the 6/7 year contract takes him through his prime. I just don't see a ton of risk with him especially when you can project him having better partners than MacDonald and Manning in the future.

A contract is only a bad contract if no team is willing to take him for free. I just don't see that happening with a 40+ point defenseman in his 20s.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 2 @ 3:41 PM ET
In my mind, Ghost is already a $4.5M player and the 6/7 year contract takes him through his prime. I just don't see a ton of risk with him especially when you can project him having better partners than MacDonald and Manning in the future.

A contract is only a bad contract if no team is willing to take him for free. I just don't see that happening with a 40+ point defenseman in his 20s.

- PhillySportsGuy

My biggest fear with 5+ year contracts is complacency and, in the case of Ghost, injuries. He's already had a serious leg injury and another major surgery. This is concerning when you are talking about an undersized Dman whose game is based on skill and quickness.
missingmike
Joined: 07.08.2011

May 2 @ 3:42 PM ET
Longest I'd go is 6 years, as long as the aav is 4.5 mil or less. Would prefer 5 years.
- BiggE


Sounds reasonable to me.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

May 2 @ 3:49 PM ET
My biggest fear with 5+ year contracts is complacency and, in the case of Ghost, injuries. He's already had a serious leg injury and another major surgery. This is concerning when you are talking about an undersized Dman whose game is based on skill and quickness.
- BiggE

we better not take nolan then
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 3:52 PM ET
My biggest fear with 5+ year contracts is complacency and, in the case of Ghost, injuries. He's already had a serious leg injury and another major surgery. This is concerning when you are talking about an undersized Dman whose game is based on skill and quickness.
- BiggE



Also if he isn't scoring it's not like he is a shutdown guy. So if the points stop or he struggles it's not like he is going to be relied on to kill penalties or go against and slow down top lines.

In a way he is very boom or bust. I think 5 years is longest I go. I would really try to stay in the 3.75-4 range.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 2 @ 3:52 PM ET
My biggest fear with 5+ year contracts is complacency and, in the case of Ghost, injuries. He's already had a serious leg injury and hip surgery. This is concerning when you are talking about an undersized Dman whose game is based on skill and quickness.
- BiggE


It's a concern, but losing Ghost in FA during his prime or signing him to a longer, more expensive deal are also concerns.

I think the biggest separation with some of us is that the ones who like fancy stats probably view Ghost more favorably than those who don't.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 2 @ 3:57 PM ET
Also if he isn't scoring it's not like he is a shutdown guy. So if the points stop or he struggles it's not like he is going to be relied on to kill penalties or go against and slow down top lines.

In a way he is very boom or bust. I think 5 years is longest I go. I would really try to stay in the 3.75-4 range.

- J35Bacher


There is really nothing to suggest Ghost would stop scoring. There's more evidence that guys like Morin and Hagg will never amount to anything.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 2 @ 3:59 PM ET
It's a concern, but losing Ghost in FA during his prime or signing him to a longer, more expensive deal are also concerns.

I think the biggest separation with some of us is that the ones who like fancy stats probably view Ghost more favorably than those who don't.

- PhillySportsGuy




#Fancystatscrowd
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 2 @ 4:00 PM ET
It's a concern, but losing Ghost in FA during his prime or signing him to a longer, more expensive deal are also concerns.

I think the biggest separation with some of us is that the ones who like fancy stats probably view Ghost more favorably than those who don't.

- PhillySportsGuy

It's more about his frame and asset management than his on ice performance. I love him as a player, as a GM though, I'd be hesitant going past 5 years.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 2 @ 4:05 PM ET
Gonna put some crow in the freezer for all of you short termers
- YuenglingJagr

It'll look good in there next to all your dead ferrets
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 4:09 PM ET
There is really nothing to suggest Ghost would stop scoring. There's more evidence that guys like Morin and Hagg will never amount to anything.
- PhillySportsGuy



I think Morin and Hagg will actually be fine. I think Hagg will be more like a Provorov. Not as dynamic but rely on his positioning and hockey IQ to make plays. I see Morin doing his role fine.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 4:24 PM ET
It'll look good in there next to all your dead ferrets
- mayorofangrytown

Gerbils, but I won't tell you how they suffocated
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 4:31 PM ET
It's more about his frame and asset management than his on ice performance. I love him as a player, as a GM though, I'd be hesitant going past 5 years.
- BiggE

He will be 31 by the end of a 7 year deal...not 40

His body doesn't take too much abuse either due to how quick he is. I really am baffled by how many people are worried about it. We gave Andrew MacDonald a 6/30 contract and we are worried about 7/31.5 for Ghost?
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 4:38 PM ET
My biggest fear with 5+ year contracts is complacency and, in the case of Ghost, injuries. He's already had a serious leg injury and another major surgery. This is concerning when you are talking about an undersized Dman whose game is based on skill and quickness.
- BiggE


I am OK with a two year bridge deal at around $3.5m because there is less short term risk for the Flyers, and they'll get more information to base his big deal on.

The obvious trade off is that if Ghost scores 100 points combined in the next two seasons then they'll be looking at a $7m+ AAV to sign him long term at age 26.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 4:46 PM ET
I am OK with a two year bridge deal at around $3.5m because there is less short term risk for the Flyers, and they'll get more information to base his big deal on.

The obvious trade off is that if Ghost scores 100 points combined in the next two seasons then they'll be looking at a $7m+ AAV to sign him long term at age 26.

- Feanor[/
quote]


I am pretty confident he won't see a 7m AAV.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 2 @ 4:54 PM ET
In my mind, Ghost is already a $4.5M player and the 6/7 year contract takes him through his prime. I just don't see a ton of risk with him especially when you can project him having better partners than MacDonald and Manning in the future.

A contract is only a bad contract if no team is willing to take him for free. I just don't see that happening with a 40+ point defenseman in his 20s.

- PhillySportsGuy


Other than the effect of the injury, Gostisbehere's struggles has zilch to do with who his partners were. Those struggles give me pause in signing him to that long of a deal. I think there is merit to the idea of giving him longer term to save an AAV if he explodes offensively.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 2 @ 4:55 PM ET
I am OK with a two year bridge deal at around $3.5m because there is less short term risk for the Flyers, and they'll get more information to base his big deal on.

The obvious trade off is that if Ghost scores 100 points combined in the next two seasons then they'll be looking at a $7m+ AAV to sign him long term at age 26.

- Feanor


Say Sanheim comes in and puts in good point production, Provorov will continue to get better, Hagg chips in somewhat steadily. We could be in a situation where we don't exactly need him. Obviously I want him but if he is going to force our hand we could be in a situation where we are ok to let him walk. Just a worst comes to worst scenario with a two year bridge.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 4:59 PM ET
Say Sanheim comes in and puts in good point production, Provorov will continue to get better, Hagg chips in somewhat steadily. We could be in a situation where we don't exactly need him. Obviously I want him but if he is going to force our hand we could be in a situation where we are ok to let him walk. Just a worst comes to worst scenario with a two year bridge.
- ClaudeFather

It would just be TERRIBLE to have a good 25/26/27 year old defenseman signed with cost controlled term available for a trade. Just the worst.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 2 @ 5:00 PM ET
It would just be TERRIBLE to have a good 25/26/27 year old defenseman signed with cost controlled term available for a trade. Just the worst.
- YuenglingJagr


Exactly, we would be alright.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

May 2 @ 5:01 PM ET
Other than the effect of the injury, Gostisbehere's struggles has zilch to do with who his partners were. Those struggles give me pause in signing him to that long of a deal. I think there is merit to the idea of giving him longer term to save an AAV if he explodes offensively.
- MJL


My point was more that a better partner like Gudas would help mask some of his weaknesses
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