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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Draft Thoughts, Flyers at Worlds and More
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J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 1:48 PM ET
3 yrs at 4 mil per

Just my hopeful guess. That gets him past Povorov's new deal.

- mayorofangrytown



I was actually thinking 4 years at 3.75 - 4 million range. Nice deal for a guy that might slowly be pushed down the d pairings as prospects enter the lineup.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 1:48 PM ET
I made the comment in yesterdays blog that 6 of the 15 active 1st overall picks are in our division. Soon to be 7 of 16. And 11 of 16 in our conference. The east is ridiculous.

Detroit might beg to go back west soon.

- youarewrong


who are the 11? are you counting Kovalchuk as active?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 2 @ 1:50 PM ET
Ohh even better.... Crosby retires due to injury and Ovechkin wins the cup and jumps ship to finish career in Russia. Patrick and Hischier become the new Crosby vs Ovechkin.....
- youarewrong


That would be pretty hilarious to see Washington trade for Kovulchuk's rights if they get knocked out by the Penguins, only to see Ovechkin bolt for the KHL.

I now think a heated rivalry with Toronto is going to be a must see in the next couple years.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 1:50 PM ET
3 yrs at 4 mil per

Just my hopeful guess. That gets him past Povorov's new deal.

- mayorofangrytown


I believe 3 years would take him to UFA status because he turned 24 last month.

http://www.wingingitinmot...cba-episode-3-free-agency

Group 3 (Unrestricted) Free Agents

The easiest-to-define class. If you've accrued 7 seasons (with the same definitions as laid out about how 18 and 19-year olds accrue differently), you're a UFA. If you haven't accrued those 7 seasons by the time you hit age 27, you get to be a UFA anyway.

The birthday issue is a little funny here, in that everywhere else, the date that matters is either September 15 or December 31. Here it's June 30. You could technically have a guy miss out on becoming a UFA because he doesn't turn 27 until July 2nd.


So it would have to be a 2 year bridge - maybe at $3.5m. Then he signs his big deal at age 26.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 1:52 PM ET
7 years would carry some risk for the Flyers, but it would also make no sense for Ghost so sign for that long for less than $4.5m AAV. If he turns into a regular 50+ point dman he could be looking at nearly double that in a few years.

Dmen who put up points always get good money. Just being consistently in the 20-35 range got Demers 5 years at $4.5m.

- Feanor



I get that but for me I see his even strength minutes going down as more prospects enter the lineup. He'll always get his PP time. I just see less at ES when guys like Sanheim, Hagg, Morin, and Myers are here and you add that to Provorov.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

May 2 @ 1:53 PM ET
Bill, please tell me that there is no chance that the Flyers are going to overthink this thing. I have this feeling of dread that there's some 6'9" project out there that they have their eye on.
- Dkos


That reminds me, hopefully Morin makes the Flyers out of training camp this year.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 1:54 PM ET
I wonder if TB regrets taking Drouin over Seth Jones
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 1:56 PM ET
I was actually thinking 4 years at 3.75 - 4 million range. Nice deal for a guy that might slowly be pushed down the d pairings as prospects enter the lineup.
- J35Bacher


He was used on the third pairing at ES this season. I think he will actually be moving up the lineup in the short term.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 2:00 PM ET
I believe 3 years would take him to UFA status because he turned 24 last month.

http://www.wingingitinmot...cba-episode-3-free-agency



So it would have to be a 2 year bridge - maybe at $3.5m. Then he signs his big deal at age 26.

- Feanor


Look at some of these deals. For some reason I would be bothered if we paid Gostisbehere more.

Roman Josi - 7 years at 4 million
Mattias Ekholm - 7 years at 3.75 million
Jake Muzzin - 5 years at 4 million
Connor Murphy - 6 years at 3.85 million
Ryan Ellis - 5 years at 2.50 million

But it's not my money
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 2:02 PM ET
He was used on the third pairing at ES this season. I think he will actually be moving up the lineup in the short term.
- Feanor



You think?

I figured the top 4 would probably be some combination of Provorov, MacDonald, Gudas, Morin, Hagg.
Flyers1218
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 06.28.2007

May 2 @ 2:05 PM ET
Insert Generic Whine About Not Getting A Generational Talent at #2 Here.
- Doc_Sarcasm

Man I hope not. This is a time to be happy. From all I've read (bc I haven't seen either play), I'd like to have Patrick, but by no means be upset with Hischier.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 2:07 PM ET
You think?

I figured the top 4 would probably be some combination of Provorov, MacDonald, Gudas, Morin, Hagg.

- J35Bacher


Morin and Hagg aren't even locks to make the team.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 2 @ 2:08 PM ET
You think?

I figured the top 4 would probably be some combination of Provorov, MacDonald, Gudas, Morin, Hagg.

- J35Bacher




When it all shakes out Ghost will be a third pair/first PP dman.

There is nothing wrong with that.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

May 2 @ 2:10 PM ET
Look at some of these deals. For some reason I would be bothered if we paid Gostisbehere more.

Roman Josi - 7 years at 4 million
Mattias Ekholm - 7 years at 3.75 million
Jake Muzzin - 5 years at 4 million
Connor Murphy - 6 years at 3.85 million
Ryan Ellis - 5 years at 2.50 million

But it's not my money

- J35Bacher


I'd put Ghost between Josi and Murphy....3.95M at 6.5 years.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 2:11 PM ET
When it all shakes out Ghost will be a third pair/first PP dman.

There is nothing wrong with that.

- MBFlyerfan



Didn't say there was.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 2 @ 2:11 PM ET
Didn't say there was.
- J35Bacher



Didnt say you did.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 2 @ 2:12 PM ET
Look at some of these deals. For some reason I would be bothered if we paid Gostisbehere more.

Roman Josi - 7 years at 4 million
Mattias Ekholm - 7 years at 3.75 million
Jake Muzzin - 5 years at 4 million
Connor Murphy - 6 years at 3.85 million
Ryan Ellis - 5 years at 2.50 million

But it's not my money

- J35Bacher


You get deals like that by signing guys long term after their ELC

What would Josi be getting now if they gave him a bridge deal?
fls13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 03.24.2009

May 2 @ 2:12 PM ET
Morin and Hagg aren't even locks to make the team.
- Feanor


They aren't but someone is going to have to as there's only Provorov, Gudas, Gostisbehere, Manning and MacDonald and Hextall has said he won't be looking at a UFA Dman.

As an aside, we still need a #1 goalie. I just mention it in passing.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 2:13 PM ET
Look at some of these deals. For some reason I would be bothered if we paid Gostisbehere more.

Roman Josi - 7 years at 4 million
Mattias Ekholm - 7 years at 3.75 million
Jake Muzzin - 5 years at 4 million
Connor Murphy - 6 years at 3.85 million
Ryan Ellis - 5 years at 2.50 million

But it's not my money

- J35Bacher


Josi was signed when his career high points in a season was 18 in 48 games.

Ekholm was signed when his career high points in a season was 18.

Muzzin was signed when his career high points in a season was 24.

Murphy was signed when his career high points in a season was 17.

Ellis was signed when his career high points in a season was 27.

Ghost has already had 46 and 39 point seasons.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 2:15 PM ET
You get deals like that by signing guys long term after their ELC

What would Josi be getting now if they gave him a bridge deal?

- YuenglingJagr



I am thinking something like 5 years 3.75 million would be a solid deal. Get some long term certainty and its a reasonable raise.

The guys I mentioned also all play top 4 minutes.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

May 2 @ 2:16 PM ET
Josi was signed when his career high points in a season was 18 in 48 games.

Ekholm was signed when his career high points in a season was 18.

Muzzin was signed when his career high points in a season was 24.

Murphy was signed when his career high points in a season was 17.

Ellis was signed when his career high points in a season was 27.

Ghost has already had 46 and 39 point seasons.

- Feanor



Yes. but it's not all about points.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 2:19 PM ET
I am thinking something like 5 years 3.75 million would be a solid deal. Get some long term certainty and its a reasonable raise.

The guys I mentioned also all play top 4 minutes.

- J35Bacher


Ekholm and Ellis weren't playing top 4 minutes when they were signed.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/...,&sort=evTimeOnIcePerGame
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 2 @ 2:21 PM ET
Yes. but it's not all about points.
- J35Bacher


It is when you mention Ghost
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 2 @ 2:23 PM ET
It is when you mention Ghost
- dragonoffrost


Points are important for any player in the league when it comes to contract negotiations.

The 32 points MDZ scored in 64 games in 14-15 got him two years at $3.875m AAV from Hextall.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 2 @ 2:28 PM ET
I believe 3 years would take him to UFA status because he turned 24 last month.

http://www.wingingitinmot...cba-episode-3-free-agency



So it would have to be a 2 year bridge - maybe at $3.5m. Then he signs his big deal at age 26.

- Feanor

If they sign him to three yrs that eats up his RFA yrs, I know. But it gives the team two yrs to see what he's actually going to be then they can sign him to his UFA deal a yr before he becomes a UFA.

Just my thoughts. It's what I'd push for if I was GM. 12mil is a lot for the kid to turn down.

I can't say I honestly have a grip on D salaries right now.
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