Yeah 2 years in a row we are lucky right? Maybe the Caps defence is actually overrated and not that good and maybe our forwards are better. Sure looks that way at this point. And you told me to check out Orlov, he's pretty run of the mill. The Penguins have been here together already the whole team came back to play this year that won it last year and they see themselves as a big family. The Caps are teammates and the Penguins are brothers. And there is no way to quantify that and put it on some dumb chart.
- Dcoms

Tanner has to say its luck and coaching because he has no other argument. He will ignore us till his next blog because he realizes that admitting we have good points undermines his "faith" in advanced stats. If Washington wins game 3 it will be self lauding, if they lose more of the same. Sorry that Lars Eller hit the post and Kessel scored from an impossible angle after a ridiculous play by Crosby!!! To call that luck is fowl and absurd and Tanner knows it!!! (Rust hit a post to, unlucky??????!!!!) Great Players make Great plays, the Pens have 3 of them!!! Two are all time greats, but they re just "lucky" every night

Ha ha, another doozy.
It's always luck with you.
At least you didn't spew your liberal crap today. Thanks for that

Nice. You avoid the gambler's fallacy while suggesting the fallacious claim will prove to be true!

and 100 floaters from the red line is exactly equivalent to 100 shots at 100 mph from the slots... SOG for the win

Nice troll blog.

Without a doubt MAF is playing great. Still, I don't see him making tons of 10 bell saves. One of the undersold reasons the Pens won the cup last year was shot blocking.

Caps might be able to control play at will, but if the only result is a puck off a shin or hitting MAF square in the chest, that isn't going to be enough to win. This is so similar to what the blow jackets did and they went down in 5.

Series is obviously far from over but the Pens will be tough to beat at home.

Tanner is out of narrative. "Deserve 2 wins"? ... "the better team"... "lucky"... these are the words of man who has faith in his "advanced metrics" and can't admit he's been wrong till this point. No where do you point out that the Pens have the better high end players, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Geunzel. No where do you point out that the Pens don't need 130 chances in 2 games! Its pretty pathetic.
- Brianandr1

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.

First off- I have always despised Crosby. Not a fan of the whining when he first started in the league and never got over it...but plain and simple- he's outplayed Ovie, not just by a small margin- but completely overshadowed Ovechkin.
that block on (Carlson I believe) the point shot last night and diving to tip the puck up for the 2 on 1 in which Kessel roofed top shelf was indicative of what an ultimate leader does to find ways to win..by any means necessary.
the caps look panicked with the puck and sloppy. Most of their shots are low margin (save for the flurry near the end of game 1 where Fleury was amazing). Ovie has done little to rally his team like Crosby has and until he finds his balls and actually carries his team on his back, it will be more of the same. Doubt anyone will stop the pens again this year.

TANNER!!!

It is a fact that a goalie playing out of his mind IS NOT LUCK.

It is a fact that when your forwards are scoring legitimate goals IT IS NOT LUCK.

It is a fact that in spite of losing the possession game is the Pens sacrifice and make sure to limit the high danger chances.

IT IS A FACT THAT THIS IS NOT LUCK. This is the problem with your narrative.

IT IS A FACT that this is not even close to the first time in the history of the NHL where the goalie of STANLEY CUP WINNING TEAM has stolen a series.

Players playing better in other areas of a game is not luck. Losing a game where you win the possession area is not bad luck, it's just unfortunate.

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.
- james_tanner1

I cant say i disagree with you. I think the penguins higher top end talent is showing. Washington really IS the better tram. It reminds me of the Utah jazz againstead mjs bulls. The jazz were definitely a better overall team. But...it's Jordan. But what else can the caps do? My only thoight would be crisper passes during offensive zone posessions. You notice the pens get it back to the point and don't just fire it into tons of bodies. They look for controlled plays to get their studs open shots. So they get less shots but when they do they seem to be very dangerous.

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.
- james_tanner1

It is about right vs wrong! Your blog blames the loss on coaching and luck. Why does it not address how well the Pens high end players are producing? You point out shooting percentages!!! His name is Phil Kessel, His name is Jake Guentzel, his name is Geno Malkin, his name is Sid Crosby. They have been mincing the top 2 goalies in the league for a round and a half!!! One is a HOFer and 2 are generational talent HOFers! Where is the credit? Yes, Fleury has been great, Was Holby bad on the Kessel goal or did he make a ridiculous shot? Was he bad on the Cullen goal, or was it a talented player on a break away. Your blog also neglected to point out that the Pens have yet to play their best game! What happens then? Only "advanced stats fatheists" can come to the conclusion that a 6 2 win was luck!!! Perhaps "the process" will get them a win, perhaps not...the series is not over by a long shot!!!, but Are the Penguins in Washington's heads at this point? Many observers would say so, but there is not chart for that so why would it be discussed in the blog???

EK clearly doesn't vet his bloggers very well.

TANNER!!!

It is a fact that a goalie playing out of his mind IS NOT LUCK.

Yes it is . He's saving a higher percentage of saves than is possible to continue doing. It is a guarantee that his save percentage goes down the longer the series goes.

It is a fact that when your forwards are scoring legitimate goals IT IS NOT LUCK.

It is if they are scoring on too high a percentage of their shots. History tells us this can't last, and it won'.t

It is a fact that in spite of losing the possession game is the Pens sacrifice and make sure to limit the high danger chances.


Hey Ron Wilson, is that you? The Penguins are usually a good possession team and this is in no way their strategy.

IT IS A FACT THAT THIS IS NOT LUCK. This is the problem with your narrative.


You can't just state something and not back it up. My statements are backed up with statistics, which are how we measure performance in hockey.

IT IS A FACT that this is not even close to the first time in the history of the NHL where the goalie of STANLEY CUP WINNING TEAM has stolen a series.

Players playing better in other areas of a game is not luck. Losing a game where you win the possession area is not bad luck, it's just unfortunate.
- Rinosaur

It is about right vs wrong! Your blog blames the loss on coaching and luck. Why does it not address how well the Pens high end players are producing? You point out shooting percentages!!! His name is Phil Kessel, His name is Jake Guentzel, his name is Geno Malkin, his name is Sid Crosby. They have been mincing the top 2 goalies in the league for a round and a half!!! One is a HOFer and 2 are generational talent HOFers! Where is the credit? Yes, Fleury has been great, Was Holby bad on the Kessel goal or did he make a ridiculous shot? Was he bad on the Cullen goal, or was it a talented player on a break away. Your blog also neglected to point out that the Pens have yet to play their best game! What happens then? Only "advanced stats fatheists" can come to the conclusion that a 6 2 win was luck!!! Perhaps "the process" will get them a win, perhaps not...the series is not over by a long shot!!!, but Are the Penguins in Washington's heads at this point? Many observers would say so, but there is not chart for that so why would it be discussed in the blog???
- Brianandr1

Uh buddy, my blog has zero charts........

EK clearly doesn't vet his bloggers very well.
- Rinosaur

You're right, the Capitals blog should have way more of a Penguins slant. Furthermore, the content should be approved by you before it goes out.

What a tool.

[quote=james_tanner1]

No... a goalie playing out of his mind is NOT luck. It's him bringing raising his game to another level which you're hoping Holtby will do.

I have backed it up, you just don't look at the facts.

You don't score that many goals by luck and you don't stop that many goals by luck. If you think they do, then goalies are basically arbitrary factors in a game it doesn't matter what his name is.

Thank you, come again.

EK clearly doesn't vet his bloggers very well.
- Rinosaur

Come on, we all know how HockeyBuzz works. Inflammatory titles, opinionated arrogant bloggers who argue with commenters = more comments and page views = more ad revenue. Why do you think political sites have such incompetent writers/broadcasters? It breeds arguments and more visits / comments in the article.

You're right, the Capitals blog should have way more of a Penguins slant. Furthermore, the content should be approved by you before it goes out.

What a tool.
- james_tanner1

You're so fixated on advanced stats that you've dug yourself into a hole when you're wrong. You can't admit that other factors attribute to a team winning hockey games.

You're supposed to be a blogger, yet you call people names? Who's the tool?

Dopey.

Uh buddy, my blog has zero charts........
- james_tanner1

But you clearly buy in! So no credit to HOFer's and generational talents making amazing plays to win games? I like your blog, and you might be right (we ll see), but that is just foul!!!

Champions know how to win.

The Pens are playing with more confidence, desperation and sacrifice. They do what they have to in order to stop and score goals.

The Caps are relying on what they did in the regular season. The Pens understand playoff hockey, but the Caps don't.

The Pens know their weaknesses and play to compensate, the Caps don't.

No... a goalie playing out of his mind is NOT luck. It's him bringing raising his game to another level which you're hoping Holtby will do.

I have backed it up, you just don't look at the facts.

You don't score that many goals by luck and you don't stop that many goals by luck. If you think they do, then goalies are basically arbitrary factors in a game it doesn't matter what his name is.

Thank you, come again.
- Rinosaur

Crosby, Malkin and Kessel are 1st ballot HOFer's!
Fleury will probably be a HOFer when its all said and done!(look at the numbers and his age)
We re supposed to buy that its luck that HOF players play like HOF players??? You give them zero credit. Its just luck, their shooting percentage is high!

As I said before, you might be right! But, is it possible that this Pens team has that ineffable quality that advanced stats can't account for? Is it possible that they are that 20%? Germ Theory, Evolution, Relativity et... (proper sciences) don't get it right 80 percent of the time, they get it right 99.999999% of the time. Advanced stats is a useful tool, but your faith in it has blinded you to reality this time around.
(in my opinion)

Crosby, Malkin and Kessel are 1st ballot HOFer's!
Fleury will probably be a HOFer when its all said and done!(look at the numbers and his age)
We re supposed to buy that its luck that HOF players play like HOF players??? You give them zero credit. Its just luck, their shooting percentage is high!

As I said before, you might be right! But, is it possible that this Pens team has that ineffable quality that advanced stats can't account for? Is it possible that they are that 20%? Germ Theory, Evolution, Relativity et... (proper sciences) don't get it right 80 percent of the time, they get it right 99.999999% of the time. Advanced stats is a useful tool, but your faith in it has blinded you to reality this time around.
(in my opinion)
- Brianandr1

Crosby and Malkin no brainers! Kessel no chance in hell

A very convoluted and paradoxical perspective you have James. I get it, you are a "fact" guy, but you even mention 80% probability is wrong 1/5 times....so what you really are saying is you like things to go according to probability...but when it doesn't go that way it is "luck".

Your writing and perspective comes across like a pity party...when the 80% is working out it is going according to facts....but when that 20% unpredictability comes along its luck. Only someone that wants to throw a pity party for themselves believes in luck. But hey...no one is forcing you to face reality.....after all the Caps will hang that Presidents trophy banner up soon....we all know the facts say this one matters most, not that dumb Stanley Cup banner that takes luck to win.

I like your choice of music, the Yeah Yeah Yeahs song "Heads Will Roll" comes to mind when reading your articles....."Shut your eyes and realize". Your eyes deceive your own perception....Your perspective is highly entertaining and always provides a good laugh out loud moment with the irony that you love facts but have challenges facing the facts....

Crosby and Malkin no brainers! Kessel no chance in hell
- Bobd62

Kessel is only 29 and has almost 300 goals and 650 pts! If he plays till 38, 9 more years he would only have to average 22.6 goals per year to get 500. He would only have to average 39 points per year to get 1000 points. These are highly likely considering he's playing on the Pens with Malkin and Crosby for the next 6 years!!! 500+ goals, 1000+ points and at least 1 cup are not HOF numbers?

MAF has 375 wins at age 32. Considering he will play 3-5 more years as a starter he's likely to end his career over 450. One cup as a starter, 2 overall. That's top 10 all time, possibly top 5 in terms of wins. Again HOF numbers.

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.
- james_tanner1

It's a fact the pens have won 2 games.

It has nothing to do with me being right or wrong.

It is a fact that the Penguins have won because of high save and shooting percentages.

It is a fact that the Capitals controlled more of the play and took more shots.

It is a fact that the team who does that usually wins.

It is a fact that (while possible) teams that win with high PDOs tend to fall back to earth.

I said this after last game: When you play well and lose, you have to ask if you need to trust the process or make adjustments. The stats say the Capitals should trust the process.

They aren't getting rewarded for doing the things that usually get rewarded in hockey games.

There is a chance that the Capitals keep playing well and MAF continues to play amazing. It's not likely, but it can definitely happen.

The most likely outcome for game three is that if the Caps continue to play like they did in games one and two, they will win.

Just because something goes against the analytics doesn't make it wrong. The entire purpose of analytics to is to find probabilities. Critics of this seem to miss the key point that even an 80% probability is wrong 1 in 5 times.
- james_tanner1

Its too bad you spent all that time looking up all those stats. I could of told you at the beginning of the season the Caps wouldn't make it out of the 2nd round. Ovi is a great slap shotter and body checker but he is a born loser.

I think this is pretty simple. The Caps need to get it together. they are a better team but right now they aren't elevating their game. it's that simple