I still don't understand this "luck" component...

Pens dominated the first half and Caps the second half. Given, the Caps second half was better than the Pens first half. The Pens shut the game down because of Fleury.

Last I checked, Fleury plays for the Pens, so a Pens player helped them to win. Holtby came up short. Where was the "luck" exactly? DId the Pens get a fluky goal? No. Did they get a favorable call that should not have been called that led to a goal? No.

There was no luck. All that happened wss the team that played better later in the game lost because a player on the other team came up bigger.

No luck, homes.
- Rinosaur

Holtby hasn't looked great either kinda like price they were ok but not what they should be

I only got to watch the 3rd of last game but from what I saw in the 3rd, Caps out played the Pens almost the whole period. If they play like that the entire game, eventually pucks will go in. I'm still saying Caps in 7
- Maverick1818

The Caps dominated the 2nd half of the game, but one of their players was not up to task: Holtby.

The Caps dominated the 2nd half of the game, but one of their players was not up to task: Holtby.
- Rinosaur

I know it was a breakaway but bonino beat him without much of a move, that said good on him

Holtby hasn't looked great either kinda like price they were ok but not what they should be
- Upstate_isles

Holtby has been "meh" thus far in the post-season and Fleury has been better. That's still not "luck" as Tanner keeps trying to point out.

One player playing better than the other (Fleury & Holtby) is not lucky. It's a component of the other team playing a better game.

The Pens owned the first half of the game and took advantage. The Caps owned the and 2nd half, but couldn't seal the deal; the Pens could.

And yes, Price was ok, but not his normal self. That's what happens when you rely on a goalie for an entire season; their going to burn out.

Holtby has been "meh" thus far in the post-season and Fleury has been better. That's still not "luck" as Tanner keeps trying to point out.

One player playing better than the other (Fleury & Holtby) is not lucky. It's a component of the other team playing a better game.

The Pens owned the first half of the game and took advantage. The Caps owned the and 2nd half, but couldn't seal the deal; the Pens could.

And yes, Price was ok, but not his normal self. That's what happens when you rely on a goalie for an entire season; their going to burn out.
- Rinosaur

Like holby . He pissed me off with caps are best team cause of most wins, it's the most wins in the playoffs buddy and the caps haven't done that yet. I'll say this though that game was so awesome to watch as a non fan of either team. Whoever wins this is my pick to win it all

Like holby . He pissed me off with caps are best team cause of most wins, it's the most wins in the playoffs buddy and the caps haven't done that yet. I'll say this though that game was so awesome to watch as a non fan of either team. Whoever wins this is my pick to win it all
- Upstate_isles

Don't you mean whoever is lucky enough to win this might get lucky enough to win it all???

I agree though. I picked the Caps in 5 originally, but I have a feeling I'm now wrong with the length of time. I think the Pens not having Letang will catch up to them.

Please explain to me how the pens have been "lucky" when letang is gone for the playoffs and hagelin still isn't back...

Please explain to me how the pens have been "lucky" when letang is gone for the playoffs and hagelin still isn't back...
- drummer829

Tanner said so, tanner knows all, explained

The caps are not "far and away the better team "in this series... they are the better team on paper when you take the pens injuries into consideration and the favorite. It's mostly analytics "fatheists" that think the caps are a clear favorite. The sample sizes in the playoffs are to small for most of those numbers to be meaningful. ( if there meaningful at all).its amazing how Data and advanced stats guys only point out the arguement s that support their position and leave out the rest. The pens speed and depth up front is still causing major issues for the caps, MAF is a wild card, if he plays like game 1 the caps are in trouble ... this series is still a toss up.

It's a common story in sports where a team technically plays better but doesn't win and that's a total fallacy. If the other team wins that means they did SOMETHING better than the other team.

Tanner has his head so far up his advanced analytics tush that he forgot there other aspects to the game. I'll repeat what I've been saying...

1) Pens played better than the Caps for the first half (which he minimized yesterday to dominating for a few minutes).

2) Caps played better in the 2nd half than the Pens in the 1st half.

Goalies were the deciding factor. It wasn't JUST Fleury playing better, Holtby had to do his part and he did. There was NO luck. Pens got outplayed in the possession stats? Fine. They score more legit goals and stopped more legit goals which is only done by THE PLAYERS, not by shear LUCK.

The caps are not "far and away the better team "in this series... they are the better team on paper when you take the pens injuries into consideration and the favorite. It's mostly analytics "fatheists" that think the caps are a clear favorite. The sample sizes in the playoffs are to small for most of those numbers to be meaningful. ( if there meaningful at all).its amazing how Data and advanced stats guys only point out the arguement s that support their position and leave out the rest. The pens speed and depth up front is still causing major issues for the caps, MAF is a wild card, if he plays like game 1 the caps are in trouble ... this series is still a toss up.
- Brianandr1

Pens have 3 guys that can take a game over in 87 71 and to an extent 81 and that alone give them a punchers chance in any series.

It's a common story in sports where a team technically plays better but doesn't win and that's a total fallacy. If the other team wins that means they did SOMETHING better than the other team.

Tanner has his head so far up his advanced analytics tush that he forgot there other aspects to the game. I'll repeat what I've been saying...

1) Pens played better than the Caps for the first half (which he minimized yesterday to dominating for a few minutes).

2) Caps played better in the 2nd half than the Pens in the 1st half.

Goalies were the deciding factor. It wasn't JUST Fleury playing better, Holtby had to do his part and he did. There was NO luck. Pens got outplayed in the possession stats? Fine. They score more legit goals and stopped more legit goals which is only done by THE PLAYERS, not by shear LUCK.
- Rinosaur

It's very clear that tanner has faith in advanced stats. And like many people of faith (by no means all!!!!) they ignore evidence or results that are unconvienent. For example I believe the pens record minus letang this season was very close to there record with him. IS that meaningful data?

It's very clear that tanner has faith in advanced stats. And like many people of faith (by no means all!!!!) they ignore evidence or results that are unconvienent. Hence, "it was luck".
- Brianandr1

I mean look. Advanced stats are not without their merit, but just because a team "wins" the possession game doesn't necessarily mean they played better.

People seem to minimize the goalie factor.

A goalie is part of a the team, not some extra appendage that comes in handy every now and then.

Now, would I agree that are sustainable and unsustainable ways to pay? Sure and I do think the Pens are playing with fire. I do think the Caps win this series, but when the Pens win the game, but not the possession game doesn't mean they won by luck.

It's very clear that tanner has faith in advanced stats. And like many people of faith (by no means all!!!!) they ignore evidence or results that are unconvienent. For example I believe the pens record minus letang this season was very close to there record with him. IS that meaningful data?
- Brianandr1

2nd best team in regular season, luck!!

I mean look. Advanced stats are not without their merit, but just because a team "wins" the possession game doesn't necessarily mean they played better.

People seem to minimize the goalie factor.

A goalie is part of a the team, not some extra appendage that comes in handy every now and then.

Now, would I agree that are sustainable and unsustainable ways to pay? Sure and I do think the Pens are playing with fire. I do think the Caps win this series, but when the Pens win the game, but not the possession game doesn't mean they won by luck.
- Rinosaur

The Malkin line did nothing in game one, highly doubt that will happen again in game 2. The pens are the cup champs, they have most of that roster back. Caps may win the series, but the idea that it's "lucky" that the Pens won is absurd. The caps still have a lot to prove. But, this is the same writer that called the caps a great team based on winning the presidents trophy a few months back....

The Malkin line did nothing in game one, highly doubt that will happen again in game 2. The pens are the cup champs, they have most of that roster back. Caps may win the series, but the idea that it's "lucky" that the Pens won is absurd. The caps still have a lot to prove. But, this is the same writer that called the caps a great team based on winning the presidents trophy a few months back....
- Brianandr1

If there were some crazy bounces leading to fluky goals, etc... ok, I'll say lucky, but there weren't.

This is also the writer who said the Caps have FOUR #1 dmen LOL which might have been the most laughable thing he's every written.

The beauty of this Pens team is even when they won the cup last year is that when one line was quiet other ones stood up, so even if the Malkin line is fairly quiet doesn't mean the 1st and 3rd won't rise to the task... oh wait, they did.

Can we just retire Orpik finally?

He is a liability...especially paired with Shatty. His lack of ability means that he is the stay-at-home' D, while Shattenkirk moves around, but he is a terrible defender.

He was good when laying the body, but he can barely do that now - toooooo slow.

As for being the best; obviously.

Pens got smacked around the first game and won. Edmonton got smacked around even worse last night...and won.

So I don't know what to expect; maybe hope the Caps play like poop and they might win?

I still don't understand this "luck" component...

Pens dominated the first half and Caps the second half. Given, the Caps second half was better than the Pens first half. The Pens shut the game down because of Fleury.

Last I checked, Fleury plays for the Pens, so a Pens player helped them to win. Holtby came up short. Where was the "luck" exactly? DId the Pens get a fluky goal? No. Did they get a favorable call that should not have been called that led to a goal? No.

There was no luck. All that happened wss the team that played better later in the game lost because a player on the other team came up bigger.

No luck, homes.
- Rinosaur

Luck, in this context, means

"Corsi doesn't explain the results, yet again, so, rather than try to come up with some new theories that make any (frank)ing sense, we'll just call it luck".

Luck, in this context, means

"Corsi doesn't explain the results, yet again, so, rather than try to come up with some new theories that make any (frank)ing sense, we'll just call it luck".
- Aetherial

Adavanced Stats are "scientific" the way educational research is. Does it have its uses, YES! There are 2 fatal flaws however, 1) It ignores the human factor and 2) The factors vary from series to series (or school to school). You can't modify or change those factors and still call it "science". People like Tanner and Ryan Wilson simply refuse to see that hockey (like most sports) is as much of an art as a science. Art has an ineffable quality that their graphs and charts can't account for, So they call it luck! They have no other answer!

Tanner, when you write this kind of out-to-lunch crap, it seems like you enjoy getting berated.



You are Artie Fufkin and you don't even realise it.

Love the Spinal Tap reference!

"Kick this ass. I want you to!"

The caps are not "far and away the better team "in this series... they are the better team on paper when you take the pens injuries into consideration and the favorite. It's mostly analytics "fatheists" that think the caps are a clear favorite. The sample sizes in the playoffs are to small for most of those numbers to be meaningful. ( if there meaningful at all).its amazing how Data and advanced stats guys only point out the arguement s that support their position and leave out the rest. The pens speed and depth up front is still causing major issues for the caps, MAF is a wild card, if he plays like game 1 the caps are in trouble ... this series is still a toss up.
- Brianandr1

Exactly.

I still find it hilarious guys like Tanner and McCann had the capitals winning in 5 (then again McCann had the BJs winning in five too )

Exactly.

I still find it hilarious guys like Tanner and McCann had the capitals winning in 5 (then again McCann had the BJs winning in five too )
- DeflatedPucks

Comparing Tanner to McCann is a bit low.

McCann might as well be one of the gals with the pom poms in "smashville".

Tanner is worth reading, sometimes based on merit, often based on sheer what the (frank)ery

Called it.

Tanner!!!! Where are you!!!!!!!!!????