Coming from somebody who actually watches the sport, there is way more to hockey than analytics. Try watching the sport for once and instead of writing about "who should have won" based on this awesome chart you stole from twitter, you can realize that goalie is part of a hockey team and it just so happens the best player on the ice last night was flower. There is a reason you get ripped day in and day out about your terrible all over the place blogs, you're just as big a joke as Johnny toews making 10.5 a year. WATCH A GAME
- TheKesselVessel

I watched the game, and the Caps should have won because they dominated the entire game and Fleury stole the game for the Pens. It happens, but looking at the numbers just completely reinforces the Pens were dominated and if they expect to win more, things need to change.

On paper the Caps are the better team.... there is no arguing that point.

However there is also no arguing that the Caps D core is slower than I ever realized..... Orpik is a pylon, Shattenkirk is below average defensively, Schmidt looks good but I'm concerned Trotz may make him a scapegoat to get Alzner back in the lineup.

The Pens have been out shot in 5 of their 6 playoff games this year.... they are 5-1.... There is luck involved for sure but this team knows they are defensively deficient right now.... so its counter attack and protect the house.... that's how they are winning games.

Does anyone have the shot heat chart graphic.... I know in round 1 the Pens did a great job of giving up 70% of their shots from the outside.... I'm wondering what the ratio of low danger to high danger shots was last night...... That is the true picture of how the team played.

The bad thing about this kind of poop is, if the Pens dominated the play and lost, every Pens fan would be like, "well, that's a tough break, but if they play like that the rest of the series, they're bound to win. They'll be in good shape. They're proven winners." BUT because the roles are reversed, Pens fans are so blind to just how bad the Pens played that they use terrible narratives like "the Caps don't know how to win" or "They just can't win in the playoffs." It's (frank)ing stupid home team bias. It's okay to be biased a little bit, but god damn sometimes people need to clean their homer goggles.

I'm a Pens fan, I want the Penguins to win, I want them to play better but I can see that they obviously are lucky to escape that game with a win, because they looked like dogpoop for over half the game.
- j.boyd919

You have a point about bias but if you just look at the stats from round 1, you would assume the Pens were out on the golf course yesterday. Stats only show part of the equation.

They didn't dominate the entire game. The first was pretty even. During the game everyone was commenting on how bad the third line was. After seeing the stats, especially for Sheary, it's even more horrifying. Geno's line got outplayed after the first period as he was pouting after that Carlson hit.

Tanner is right, they got outplayed in the game. I think what pisses everyone off is the deserve bit.

Yeah the Pens played terribly for a large part of the game, but who cares? Fleury was able to stand on his head, and the Pens got a win against a great team on the road in game 1. Do they need to get better? Absolutely. I just don't get the "sky is falling" narrative from Pens fans because the Caps dominated the statistical battle after going down 2-0 in their house.

I'm not blind, I just refuse to get down on the Pens chances after a big win. Yes, there are defensive issues, and they really miss Letang. And you can assume Fleury will regress back to his mean. But what if he doesn't? He sure looked like a cup-caliber goaile last night.

On paper the Caps are the better team.... there is no arguing that point.

However there is also no arguing that the Caps D core is slower than I ever realized..... Orpik is a pylon, Shattenkirk is below average defensively, Schmidt looks good but I'm concerned Trotz may make him a scapegoat to get Alzner back in the lineup.

The Pens have been out shot in 5 of their 6 playoff games this year.... they are 5-1.... There is luck involved for sure but this team knows they are defensively deficient right now.... so its counter attack and protect the house.... that's how they are winning games.

Does anyone have the shot heat chart graphic.... I know in round 1 the Pens did a great job of giving up 70% of their shots from the outside.... I'm wondering what the ratio of low danger to high danger shots was last night...... That is the true picture of how the team played.
- Yonk1216

It would not be the same for this game. They got out chanced in HD areas more than 2-1

The bad thing about this kind of poop is, if the Pens dominated the play and lost, every Pens fan would be like, "well, that's a tough break, but if they play like that the rest of the series, they're bound to win. They'll be in good shape. They're proven winners." BUT because the roles are reversed, Pens fans are so blind to just how bad the Pens played that they use terrible narratives like "the Caps don't know how to win" or "They just can't win in the playoffs." It's (frank)ing stupid home team bias. It's okay to be biased a little bit, but god damn sometimes people need to clean their homer goggles.

I'm a Pens fan, I want the Penguins to win, I want them to play better but I can see that they obviously are lucky to escape that game with a win, because they looked like dogpoop for over half the game.
- j.boyd919

I don't think any realistic Pens fan didn't see that they got pretty thoroughly outplayed last night. The first period was pretty even, which was a good change for the Pens, but the Caps started taking control about half way through the second and all the 3rd as the Pens tried to hold on to the 2-0 and 2-1 lead.

But, the narrative is there for the Caps that they haven't been able to win in the post season and there is the recent history to back that up, especially against the Pens. The Pens are in the Cap's heads, much like the Flyers were with the Penguins. I expect a better effort from the Pens in game 2. If they can come out and play a solid first period again, they typically get better as the game goes on. The pressure is fully on the Caps for game 2, it's as close to a must win game as there can be this early in the series. Any Pens fan would have happily taken a 1-1 split going back to PPG, and they've already accomplished that while getting thoroughly outplayed.

I saw 2 Malkins last night, he was solid and pretty dominant the first half of the game and an awful turnover machine in the second half of the game. If they can get a full game from him, and get Sheary to get his confidence (and balance) back, I like their chances. Add Hagelin into the mix to put more speed and pressure on the slower Caps dmen and it'll make it a closer series.

The Caps clearly have the advantage on defense, so I think we're going to continue to see them with more scoring chances during the games, but the Pens have been better at converting their opportunities and continue to get solid goaltending. MAF looks as confident as I can remember seeing him, he just needs to keep that confidence. On a side note - has Shattenkirk looked that bad for the Caps since they got him? He's good at keeping the puck in the offensive zone, but man is he bad at defense.

The bad thing about this kind of poop is, if the Pens dominated the play and lost, every Pens fan would be like, "well, that's a tough break, but if they play like that the rest of the series, they're bound to win. They'll be in good shape. They're proven winners." BUT because the roles are reversed, Pens fans are so blind to just how bad the Pens played that they use terrible narratives like "the Caps don't know how to win" or "They just can't win in the playoffs." It's (frank)ing stupid home team bias. It's okay to be biased a little bit, but god damn sometimes people need to clean their homer goggles.

I'm a Pens fan, I want the Penguins to win, I want them to play better but I can see that they obviously are lucky to escape that game with a win, because they looked like dogpoop for over half the game.
- j.boyd919

I can objectively say and agree that the Caps carried the play for large stretches of the game, AND that the Pens have not yet played what I consider to be a really complete game yet in the playoffs. I also recognize that this is much harder to do without 58...BUT where I part ways is when someone like Tanner pompously starts prattling on about what they "DESERVED" after a loss. It's one thing to say that the bounces didn't go their way, or to extrapolate that over time if the Penguins don't improve their play, the Caps will prevail. Its another thing entirely to talk about what was DESERVED.

The Caps weren't wronged by a bad call or by some freak bounce. The Pens made the timely plays at critical moments and the Caps did not. Maybe if they bother to pick up Crosby coming late for the second goal, or if Orpik doesn't get caught up ice, or if they bury one of those 80+ shot attempts, they would have got the win that Tanner thinks they DESERVED. They didn't make those plays and therefore they got exactly what they DESERVED.

Here, I found a couple graphs to help explain what happened last night:

Goals scored per 60

X
X X
X X
-----------------------
PIT G WAS G


Goals let in per 60

X
X X
X X
------------------------
MAF BH


Numbers on scoreboard per 60

PIT:::::::::3/\2::::::WAS


Also, some special historical notes to help forecast this series:

Playoff series won per Ever

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
------------------
PIT WAS

They didn't dominate the entire game. The first was pretty even. During the game everyone was commenting on how bad the third line was. After seeing the stats, especially for Sheary, it's even more horrifying. Geno's line got outplayed after the first period as he was pouting after that Carlson hit.

Tanner is right, they got outplayed in the game. I think what pisses everyone off is the deserve bit.
- Thorny87

Bingo.

I can objectively say and agree that the Caps carried the play for large stretches of the game, AND that the Pens have not yet played what I consider to be a really complete game yet in the playoffs. I also recognize that this is much harder to do without 58...BUT where I part ways is when someone like Tanner pompously starts prattling on about what they "DESERVED" after a loss. It's one thing to say that the bounces didn't go their way, or to extrapolate that over time if the Penguins don't improve their play, the Caps will prevail. Its another thing entirely to talk about what was DESERVED.

The Caps weren't wronged by a bad call or by some freak bounce. The Pens made the timely plays at critical moments and the Caps did not. Maybe if they bother to pick up Crosby coming late for the second goal, or if Orpik doesn't get caught up ice, or if they bury one of those 80+ shot attempts, they would have got the win that Tanner thinks they DESERVED. They didn't make those plays and therefore they got exactly what they DESERVED.
- Emperor Filonius

How many times does a coach say post-game "Yeah, we probably deserved a better fate tonight, but ya know.. that's hockey." a season? It happens, and coaches recognize it, why can't fans and bloggers recognize it?

Here, I found a couple graphs to help explain what happened last night:

Goals scored per 60

X
X X
X X
-----------------------
PIT G WAS G


Goals let in per 60

X
X X
X X
------------------------
MAF BH


Numbers on scoreboard per 60

PIT:::::::::3/\2::::::WAS


Also, some special historical notes to help forecast this series:

Playoff series won per Ever

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
------------------
PIT WAS
- Kineada

Ummm your goals let in per 60 is off. Do you even CORSI bro?

This title sounds like something Bruce Boudreau would say

Ummm your goals let in per 60 is off. Do you even CORSI bro?
- mw630

Dang it, the formatting messed up my wonderful graphs!

Uh, here, I'll just post a video of some nineties band instead...

Except, I can't post videos. So I'll just start typing lyrics.

Today is gonna be the day
That they're gonna throw it back to you
By now you should've somehow
Realized what you gotta do
I don't believe that anybody
Feels the way I do, about you now
Back beat, the word was on the street
That the fire in your heart is out
I'm sure you've heard it all before
But you never really had a doubt
I don't believe that anybody
Feels the way I do about you now

- j.boyd919

For clarification on my part, High Danger scoring chances reflect missed nets, correct?

For clarification on my part, High Danger scoring chances reflect missed nets, correct?
- Thorny87

I believe so

I believe so
- j.boyd919

Lots of missed opportunities by the Caps in close.

Bingo.
- Emperor Filonius

Apparently, according to various media, the Penguins are just lucky to be playing in the 2nd round. The narrative is this is the Capitals moment, and Pittsburgh has no business even showing up because it is going to be a slaughter.

Lots of missed opportunities by the Caps in close.
- Thorny87

that's true, but the idea is if you consistently get 30-40 scoring chances, they're eventually going to go in. (Much like the Pens all playoffs last year. They regularly put up 30+ scoring chances.. giving them more prime opportunities to bury them.)

Living in a "should have" or "could have" reality is the definition of insanity. The final score was 3-2 Pens so all this talk about what could have or should have happened is living in a completely illusionary reality....lets just focus on "what happened".....and that was 3-2 Pens. All these fancy stats, ratings and charts really mean nothing when the score board says 3-2 Pens. Lets stay in the present moment and not always focus on what could have or should have happened......The only ones that point out these fancy stats/rating/charts are writers on hockeybuzz that have to write articles when their team losses....so out come the charts and stats. very laughable!!

that's true, but the idea is if you consistently get 30-40 scoring chances, they're eventually going to go in. (Much like the Pens all playoffs last year. They regularly put up 30+ scoring chances.. giving them more prime opportunities to bury them.)
- j.boyd919

Not arguing that point at all. Just seeing the chart reminds me of the old hockey saying "They're gripping the stick too tight" It also adds a bit of perspective to the HD chances stat.

.943 vs .857

Fleury deserved that win.

Not arguing that point at all. Just seeing the chart reminds me of the old hockey saying "They're gripping the stick too tight" It also adds a bit of perspective to the HD chances stat.
- Thorny87

It does, there could be tons of reasons, Fleury cutting off angles, guys in shooting lane, rushed shots, obstruction, bouncing or rolling puck, etc.

j.boyd: Yes or No question for you:

Second period starts, and instead of Crosby scoring 2 quick goals, Ovechkin scores 2 quick goals, and the game is 2-0 Caps.

Do you think that the rest of the game would have played out the same? (Pens sitting back defending the lead/Caps taking risks trying to get back in it) Yes/No