The Lightning talking points all year have been about injuries and effort on defense. This is Kuch having the b@lls to say it too.

I don't believe he was exclusively singling out Killorn. Lightning fans were frustrated with the lack of effort the team showed all year. Hard workers like Kuch had to be frustrated as well. I believe his speech applies to everyone that we have been ripping all year for poor effort (Johnson, Filppula, Drouin, Vlad, Garrison, Stralman, Sustr, Coburn and yes, Killorn).

Well, let"s see.You actually watch the games and follow the team. j.boyd looks at stats and boxscores to form his opinions. Hmmmmm...who to believe?
- verwustung

I worked for the Lightning for 6 years, watched every Lightning home game in that time, live in Tampa and regularly watch Lightning games. So nice try clown.

I worked for the Lightning for 6 years, watched every Lightning home game in that time, live in Tampa and regularly watch Lightning games. So nice try clown.
- j.boyd919

Sounds like bullpoop because you keep repeating the same trash over and over like a broken record. What's your excuse for jumping on the Pens bandwagon? Do they have the nicest analytics? But yeah, you can live and work anywhere you want, but your knowledge of the game is pitiful.

Sounds like bullpoop because you keep repeating the same trash over and over like a broken record. What's your excuse for jumping on the Pens bandwagon? Do they have the nicest analytics? But yeah, you can live and work anywhere you want, but your knowledge of the game is pitiful.
- verwustung

Buddy, I forgot more about hockey than you know. I grew up in Pittsburgh and have been a Pens fan for about 25 years now. Again, nice try, but you're really bad at this. It's pathetic.

Cooper or Sutter as the Lightning coach?

Which coach would be more successful with the Lightning.

I believe Sutter might get more out of the team but it could be due to team tiring of Cooper than Sutter's different approach. It would likely just be Hawthorne effect.

I worked for the Lightning for 6 years, watched every Lightning home game in that time, live in Tampa and regularly watch Lightning games. So nice try clown.
- j.boyd919

My man sold hotdogs at the games. He's one of Ek's "inside sources."

My man sold hotdogs at the games. He's one of Ek's "inside sources."
- Jakes_91

lol, I ran the stats machine in the control room during the game that put up all the lower 3rds and what not. Analayzed all the game notes to try and put some interesting stuff on the scoreboard.

There is so much data out there, just looking at those numbers would be foolish. We've got plenty of different metrics to look at than just Corsi and PDO. HERO charts are a good start. Dom's gamescores are solid. Ineffective math is good data. Everything I've looked at points to him still playing like a top 6 forward, and that's really all that matters. The guy is a passenger, he's not one whos going to generate offense alone, and the fact that he still put up 36 points bouncing around the lineup due to injuries (and lower QoT) is a testament to his play. Killorn was not a problem what so ever.
- j.boyd919

Those charts show lower effectiveness than in previous years. Which is, was, and will continue to be what I have been trying to say (and exactly what Kuch was alluding to). I literally don't understand this poop sometimes. Take for example TJ, his stats are down yet he according to you should be a priority re-sign, yet Killorn's numbers stayed relatively flat but underlying stats tell a different story and he's not a problem. There's no consistency with what metrics are ok and what to ignore.

Look, don't get me wrong, I like Killer and for that matter don't view his contract as the same problem many others do. He fills a need on this roster. But it was clear as day that he wasn't playing at the same level for long stretches of last year. If we are going to go by the metric of production, that was very inconsistent to say the least. He scored 6 goals in 9 games in October, 13 goals in the remaining 72 GP. Comparing that to his career it doesn't jive as he has been fairly consistent from month to month. Across the board it seems the FF and CF show a decline year to year.

Eye test said he struggled, the metrics show he struggled, and if we take his hot start into context even his production lagged comparatively. He can do better b/c he has been better and by any human or computer metric it shows.

lol, I ran the stats machine in the control room during the game that put up all the lower 3rds and what not. Analayzed all the game notes to try and put some interesting stuff on the scoreboard.
- j.boyd919

I thought you were in charge of the Kissing Cam, Josh!

Those charts show lower effectiveness than in previous years. Which is, was, and will continue to be what I have been trying to say (and exactly what Kuch was alluding to). I literally don't understand this poop sometimes. Take for example TJ, his stats are down yet he according to you should be a priority re-sign, yet Killorn's numbers stayed relatively flat but underlying stats tell a different story and he's not a problem. There's no consistency with what metrics are ok and what to ignore.

Look, don't get me wrong, I like Killer and for that matter don't view his contract as the same problem many others do. He fills a need on this roster. But it was clear as day that he wasn't playing at the same level for long stretches of last year. If we are going to go by the metric of production, that was very inconsistent to say the least. He scored 6 goals in 9 games in October, 13 goals in the remaining 72 GP. Comparing that to his career it doesn't jive as he has been fairly consistent from month to month. Across the board it seems the FF and CF show a decline year to year.

Eye test said he struggled, the metrics show he struggled, and if we take his hot start into context even his production lagged comparatively. He can do better b/c he has been better and by any human or computer metric it shows.
- uf1910

If what I was saying came off as condescending, that was not my intentions. While Killorn's underlying stats are down (a smidge, it's averages to like.. 1-2 shots per game, which I believe is negligible.) I don't believe they are down to the point where fingers could be pointed at him. That's more where I'm going. I think there are other players to blame.

Take this chart for instance... Dom uses a metric system based on goals, primary assists, secondary assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, penalty differential, faceoffs, 5-on-5 corsi differential, 5-on-5 goal differential, with each category waiting differently to his overall "game score." And depending on the game score, each player is within a certain threshold (1l/1d, 2l/2d, etc.). A lot of Lightning regulars underperformed all season. Brown, Stralman, Garrison, Sustr, maybe you can throw Namestnikov in there. But, even though Killorn's underlying numbers may have taken a small dip, they didn't pull him out of top 6 production.



Looking at his hero chart..


He's still doing everything at a top 6 level as well. I just don't think his slight decrease in his underlying numbers isn't enough to scrutinize his play. His slight dip in his play COULD be attributed to the rest of the Lightning players not playing to their level, keeping him pinned in the zone because the D's zone exits were horrible. I just think it's hard to fault Killorn when there are biggerrrrr problems.

I think my thing with analytics and raw production is as long as their producing both raw and analytical numbers at the role they are intended to be playing, then I can't find a reason to complain.

Good on Kuch. I loved it. Those things needed to be said. I salute him for having the cojones to say it out loud. I'd make him an assistant captain on the spot. And if we didn't have Stamkos, I would give Kuch the C.

Kucherov has exploded the myth of the lazy Russian player. The guy is a stud. He has drive and has high expectations of himself and his teammates. This is a great thing. Every player should have an attitude like Kucherov.

I just gained even more respect for the guy.

Killorn provides size and little more. If he isn't going to break at least 20 goals, then he needs to be a net-front presence and provide a screen - maybe have some goals bounce in off his ass like Andreychuk. He also needs to start throwing around his size and lay some big hits. I agree that Kuch's comments were at least partially directed at Killorn.

I just hope Cooper has the sense to put a Drouin - Stamkos - Kucherov line on the ice.

Sounds like bullpoop because you keep repeating the same trash over and over like a broken record. What's your excuse for jumping on the Pens bandwagon? Do they have the nicest analytics? But yeah, you can live and work anywhere you want, but your knowledge of the game is pitiful.
- verwustung

So wait...if you start working for a team, you have to give up who you actually root for?

If what I was saying came off as condescending, that was not my intentions. While Killorn's underlying stats are down (a smidge, it's averages to like.. 1-2 shots per game, which I believe is negligible.) I don't believe they are down to the point where fingers could be pointed at him. That's more where I'm going. I think there are other players to blame.

Take this chart for instance... Dom uses a metric system based on goals, primary assists, secondary assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, penalty differential, faceoffs, 5-on-5 corsi differential, 5-on-5 goal differential, with each category waiting differently to his overall "game score." And depending on the game score, each player is within a certain threshold (1l/1d, 2l/2d, etc.). A lot of Lightning regulars underperformed all season. Brown, Stralman, Garrison, Sustr, maybe you can throw Namestnikov in there. But, even though Killorn's underlying numbers may have taken a small dip, they didn't pull him out of top 6 production.



Looking at his hero chart..


He's still doing everything at a top 6 level as well. I just don't think his slight decrease in his underlying numbers isn't enough to scrutinize his play. His slight dip in his play COULD be attributed to the rest of the Lightning players not playing to their level, keeping him pinned in the zone because the D's zone exits were horrible. I just think it's hard to fault Killorn when there are biggerrrrr problems.

I think my thing with analytics and raw production is as long as their producing both raw and analytical numbers at the role they are intended to be playing, then I can't find a reason to complain.
- j.boyd919

Hero chart shown is a weighted average of the last 3 seasons with only 44% from the current season. This chart shows on average Killorn plays as a top 6 forward. It doesn't show that his play didn't decline this season.

I believe some fans believe that Killorn was one of the players referred by Kucherov since he signed a deal that seemed better and longer than he deserved. Going forward Killorn has a NTC for 3 seasons and a modified NTC for another 3 seasons.
This contract likely will be an issue in 3 years.

Hope the Penguins win their series.

I'll probably get pucks thrown my way for saying this, but I hope we see a Caps and Blues final.

I can't believe I just said that. (about the Caps).

I'll probably get pucks thrown my way for saying this, but I hope we see a Caps and Blues final.

I can't believe I just said that. (about the Caps).
- GalacticStone

How come? I'm sure there are a lot of people hoping that Ovi finally gets his first cup, myself included. Personally, I wanna see a Caps vs Oilers/Predators final.

Hero chart shown is a weighted average of the last 3 seasons with only 44% from the current season. This chart shows on average Killorn plays as a top 6 forward. It doesn't show that his play didn't decline this season.

I believe some fans believe that Killorn was one of the players referred by Kucherov since he signed a deal that seemed better and longer than he deserved. Going forward Killorn has a NTC for 3 seasons and a modified NTC for another 3 seasons.
This contract likely will be an issue in 3 years.

Hope the Penguins win their series.
- Leafsandbolts

That was why I also included his game score from this season which also showed him playing at a top 6 role.

How come? I'm sure there are a lot of people hoping that Ovi finally gets his first cup, myself included. Personally, I wanna see a Caps vs Oilers/Predators final.
- jvar17

I have a love hate relationship with the Caps. They dominated the Lightning for so long, that I really disliked them. But, I always liked Ovi as a player. I would like to see him raise the Cup. But I can't stand Brooks Orpik and don't want that wussy's name on the Cup again. So I am torn.

Don't read too much into his comments?

Dude summed up the lightning season, not good enough. No way a team with that kind of talent should miss the playoffs, unacceptable...

Apparently, an Islanders blogger read Kucherov's comments and then reached for the crack pipe. Check out this piece of fantasy :

https://eyesonisles.com/2...a-kucherov-perfect-match/

Funniest thing I have read in years. Harmonic and Strome might get you Kuch's jockstrap, but nothing more. LOL.

Tavares needs to get the hell out of there before his entire career is wasted.

If what I was saying came off as condescending, that was not my intentions. While Killorn's underlying stats are down (a smidge, it's averages to like.. 1-2 shots per game, which I believe is negligible.) I don't believe they are down to the point where fingers could be pointed at him. That's more where I'm going. I think there are other players to blame.

Take this chart for instance... Dom uses a metric system based on goals, primary assists, secondary assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, penalty differential, faceoffs, 5-on-5 corsi differential, 5-on-5 goal differential, with each category waiting differently to his overall "game score." And depending on the game score, each player is within a certain threshold (1l/1d, 2l/2d, etc.). A lot of Lightning regulars underperformed all season. Brown, Stralman, Garrison, Sustr, maybe you can throw Namestnikov in there. But, even though Killorn's underlying numbers may have taken a small dip, they didn't pull him out of top 6 production.



Looking at his hero chart..


He's still doing everything at a top 6 level as well. I just don't think his slight decrease in his underlying numbers isn't enough to scrutinize his play. His slight dip in his play COULD be attributed to the rest of the Lightning players not playing to their level, keeping him pinned in the zone because the D's zone exits were horrible. I just think it's hard to fault Killorn when there are biggerrrrr problems.

I think my thing with analytics and raw production is as long as their producing both raw and analytical numbers at the role they are intended to be playing, then I can't find a reason to complain.
- j.boyd919

Why do we keep listing Brown as a down year? Dude has always been exactly what he was last year, stone hands but physical player 4th liner. Garrison for sure had a down year which is a big reason why moving TJ for his replacement is my favored route to fix that hole. Sustr sucks and he definitely regressed (also won't be back IMO). Stralman struggled early but picked his play up late down the stretch. Killorn's numbers are consistent with his career, but how he arrived at those numbers was not. The hot streak to start the year really skewed the numbers when looking at his totals. He wasn't the same presence for long stretches of this season, unfortunately alot of that time was when the team needed guys like him to step up the most due to injuries but that's not the point, the issue is outside of his hot blazing start the numbers were down and even more importantly his presence on the ice wasn't the same. Maybe this serves as a bit of a wakeup call for him b/c he can certainly be better IMO

Why do we keep listing Brown as a down year? Dude has always been exactly what he was last year, stone hands but physical player 4th liner. Garrison for sure had a down year which is a big reason why moving TJ for his replacement is my favored route to fix that hole. Sustr sucks and he definitely regressed (also won't be back IMO). Stralman struggled early but picked his play up late down the stretch. Killorn's numbers are consistent with his career, but how he arrived at those numbers was not. The hot streak to start the year really skewed the numbers when looking at his totals. He wasn't the same presence for long stretches of this season, unfortunately alot of that time was when the team needed guys like him to step up the most due to injuries but that's not the point, the issue is outside of his hot blazing start the numbers were down and even more importantly his presence on the ice wasn't the same. Maybe this serves as a bit of a wakeup call for him b/c he can certainly be better IMO
- uf1910

Because Brown went from being a capable bottom 6 player to being below replacement level. He went from 22 points to 6 points in raw production, his possession numbers dropped significantly (a more drastic drop than Killorns, Brown went from positive to negative. Killer went from positive to slightly above positive, while still producing similar raw numbers).

Stralman went from playing like a top pairing dman to a 2nd pairing 2man, Sustr came into the season expected to be a top 4 dman, and produced like a bottom pairing guy. Same with Garrison.

That's my point, is you had 4 or 5 guys who have produced in the past and were expected to produce in certain roles, but didn't. And then you have Killorn, who was expected to produce as a top 6 forward, and he did, slightly lesser numbers than previous seasons, but still produced at a top 6 rate.

Because Brown went from being a capable bottom 6 player to being below replacement level. He went from 22 points to 6 points in raw production, his possession numbers dropped significantly (a more drastic drop than Killorns, Brown went from positive to negative. Killer went from positive to slightly above positive, while still producing similar raw numbers).

Stralman went from playing like a top pairing dman to a 2nd pairing 2man, Sustr came into the season expected to be a top 4 dman, and produced like a bottom pairing guy. Same with Garrison.

That's my point, is you had 4 or 5 guys who have produced in the past and were expected to produce in certain roles, but didn't. And then you have Killorn, who was expected to produce as a top 6 forward, and he did, slightly lesser numbers than previous seasons, but still produced at a top 6 rate.
- j.boyd919

The Drouin effect for Brown's point drop? Either way, guy is a 4th liner through and through, and just like he had 22 pts the previous season, he had 9 pts the season before that.

Now, as for the defense, weren't you just telling me a week or 2 ago that the Bolts defensive metrics were good and thus moving TJ for a "slight upgrade" dman was not necessary? Not trying to be a richard, but I'm honestly confused about what you think we do or don't need to improve

The Drouin effect for Brown's point drop? Either way, guy is a 4th liner through and through, and just like he had 22 pts the previous season, he had 9 pts the season before that.

Now, as for the defense, weren't you just telling me a week or 2 ago that the Bolts defensive metrics were good and thus moving TJ for a "slight upgrade" dman was not necessary? Not trying to be a richard, but I'm honestly confused about what you think we do or don't need to improve
- uf1910

Their defensive metrics weren't awful. They weren't great and I do believe they need to be improved. But I don't believe that downgrading the Lightning's potent offense for a slight upgrade (because i don't think the defenseman they would acquire for TJ would be worth the move.) Honestly I think that they could probably just insert Dotchin and koekkoek full time and be a lot better. And maybe find a solid 4-6 defenseman in fa.

I guess what I'm saying is the Lightning have one of the best forward corps in the league and injuries (frank)ed them hard. Their defense isn't anything special and with small moves or adjustments, they could improve their D while keeping potent offense. Think the Penguins last year. Everyone ragged on their defense and aside from Letang no one was flashy. But their 4 line scoring approach scorched teams. You saw it first hand. And I think the Lightning are one or 2 small moves away from that.

Their defensive metrics weren't awful. They weren't great and I do believe they need to be improved. But I don't believe that downgrading the Lightning's potent offense for a slight upgrade (because i don't think the defenseman they would acquire for TJ would be worth the move.) Honestly I think that they could probably just insert Dotchin and koekkoek full time and be a lot better. And maybe find a solid 4-6 defenseman in fa.

I guess what I'm saying is the Lightning have one of the best forward corps in the league and injuries (frank)ed them hard. Their defense isn't anything special and with small moves or adjustments, they could improve their D while keeping potent offense. Think the Penguins last year. Everyone ragged on their defense and aside from Letang no one was flashy. But their 4 line scoring approach scorched teams. You saw it first hand. And I think the Lightning are one or 2 small moves away from that.
- j.boyd919

Well I guess you and I differ on TJ's importance to that potency. Now if he signs a team friendly deal then his return makes sense, however I do not believe that even if he signs here that he sees the end of his deal. With Howden showing well in Cuse, he will probably be here sooner rather than later. Point is going to be a mainstay at 2C, and obviously Stammer at 1C. The writing is on the wall that he will be priced out, and if not right now within the next 1-2 years he will be. If the right deal is there now, and with expansion draft there are more options than there otherwise might be, this could be the right time for a deal.

Meh. Dude put up the same points he has his entire career. Production is still production. I think people expect him to be something he's not. He's a 27 year old top 6 winger. Dude's not elite and will never be. I'll take 40 points every year if that's waht he's gonna dish out.
- j.boyd919

what i've noticed from killorn this year was his ability to retrieve pucks dropped to an all time low, he lost a ton of battles, and he wasn't as hard nosed as he normally was. thats something tampa desperately needs him to do. like an ondrej palat except not as skilled.