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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Learning more about Zach Aston-Reese
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madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Mar 15 @ 12:27 PM ET
From what I heard on The Fan, it sounds like Streit and Cullen will play. They took normal line rushes at the morning skate. Hornie also skated but not in his normal position.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 15 @ 12:28 PM ET
If he has 1st round talent why wasn't he drafted in the 1st round when he was eligible as opposed to going undrafted?
- jaydogg1974


For the same reason that Martin St. Louis, Tyler Jonson, Artemi Panarin, Curtis Joseph, Joe Mullen, Ed Belfour, Adam Oates, and a host of other players weren't: they were late bloomers. (frank), Connor Sheary wasn't drafted either, and it's because the league he played in wasn't highly scouted and his freshman college year was very average.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 15 @ 12:28 PM ET
If he has 1st round talent why wasn't he drafted in the 1st round when he was eligible as opposed to going undrafted? And what is it higher than? Is it higher than an actual 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick? There has to be something to compare it to for it to be higher than something.
- jaydogg1974

Why was Hornqvist a 700th round draft pick? Maybe it's higher than a player that is not a "1st round talent"?
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 15 @ 12:29 PM ET
For the same reason that Martin St. Louis, Tyler Jonson, Artemi Panarin, Curtis Joseph, Joe Mullen, Ed Belfour, Adam Oates, and a host of other players weren't: they were late bloomers. (frank), Connor Sheary wasn't drafted either, and it's because the league he played in wasn't highly scouted and his freshman college year was very average.
- jmatchett383

Wait you mean to say some good players went undrafted? Source?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 15 @ 12:31 PM ET
Wait you mean to say some good players went undrafted? Source?
- Feds91Stammer


Tom Sestito was drafted in the 3rd round. Therefore, he is better than Conor Sheary.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Mar 15 @ 12:36 PM ET
From what I heard on The Fan, it sounds like Streit and Cullen will play. They took normal line rushes at the morning skate. Hornie also skated but not in his normal position.
- madmike71


Great news
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 15 @ 12:45 PM ET
Tom Sestito was drafted in the 3rd round. Therefore, he is better than Conor Sheary.
- jmatchett383

Makes sense. Thanks for pointing that out.
jaydogg1974
Joined: 06.18.2012

Mar 15 @ 12:49 PM ET
Why was Hornqvist a 700th round draft pick? Maybe it's higher than a player that is not a "1st round talent"?
- Feds91Stammer


But is that really true? I personally think Arton-Reese has a very good chance of succeeding I was just curios what actually gave him a higher probability of succeeding than someone else. Sure there have been plenty of undrafted players who have succeeded but there have been just as many who have not. I just thought it was weird to say he had a higher probability of succeeding but then never explain why he had a higher probability of succeeding and who he had a higher probability of succeeding over.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 15 @ 12:52 PM ET
But is that really true? I personally think Arton-Reese has a very good chance of succeeding I was just curios what actually gave him a higher probability of succeeding than someone else. Sure there have been plenty of undrafted players who have succeeded but there have been just as many who have not. I just thought it was weird to say he had a higher probability of succeeding but then never explain why he had a higher probability of succeeding and who he had a higher probability of succeeding over.
- jaydogg1974

At 22 he is a much more known commodity and his development path is less of an unknown.
jaydogg1974
Joined: 06.18.2012

Mar 15 @ 1:19 PM ET
At 22 he is a much more known commodity and his development path is less of an unknown.
- Feds91Stammer


Agreed. He's much more of a known commodity at 22 but it still unknown if he's capable of translating that to the NHL level.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Mar 15 @ 1:26 PM ET
Why was Hornqvist a 700th round draft pick? Maybe it's higher than a player that is not a "1st round talent"?
- Feds91Stammer



Horny was hockey's "Mr. Irrelevant"... the last person picked in the draft, same year as Crosby.

*Mr. Irrelevant is an NFL term for the last player picked... but it works in anything, drafts are drafts.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Mar 15 @ 1:28 PM ET
Agreed. He's much more of a known commodity at 22 but it still unknown if he's capable of translating that to the NHL level.
- jaydogg1974



Then don't draft anyone, ever. (frank) EVERY DRAFT PICK YOU HAVE AND ONLY SIGN "KNOWN" NHL PLAYERS. Seriously... do you read before posting... that was such an idiotic and stupid statement to dismiss a signing due to no NHL experience. McDavid had no NHL experience when drafted, I didn't see you pissing on his face.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Mar 15 @ 1:31 PM ET
But is that really true? I personally think Arton-Reese has a very good chance of succeeding I was just curios what actually gave him a higher probability of succeeding than someone else. Sure there have been plenty of undrafted players who have succeeded but there have been just as many who have not. I just thought it was weird to say he had a higher probability of succeeding but then never explain why he had a higher probability of succeeding and who he had a higher probability of succeeding over.
- jaydogg1974

When analyzing NCAA and major junior talent and whether or not they have a good probability of panning out in the NHL, where and if they were drafted is fairly irrelevant. Drafting is based on speculation from their perceived physical tools and production at lower levels of amature competition or a very small sample size of major juniors if they go that rout. Where as once a player concludes their armature career there is concrete data at the highest levels of amature competition.

Two things you look for to evaluate probability of success: 1)steady improvement over the course of their amuture career and 2) level of production from their most recent season or two of amature hockey. Continued improvement shows that they truly have been getting better and reduces the possibility that if they all of a sudden explode in one of their final years for a ton of points it's just an anomaly. Basically it's an indication that high levels of production, if that player has achieved it, are sustainable. You also want to take into consideration the most recent sample year or years because that is the most telling of the level of player the player is at the present (duh) if you have sufficient confidence they're not just having an anomaly year (that's where improvement over time comes in)

In the case of ZAR, he has displayed steady improvement over his colligiant career and put up elite production number this year without the help of his talented regular linemates for a lot of the season. His improvement suggests that his elite scoring is for real and is thus a good prospect. However, he's also 22 and therefore one of the oldest players in his league and near the end of his development, so his elite scoring doesn't mean the same as say Jack Eichel's domination of the league at 19 years old, so I wouldn't say he's on track to be a top 6 guy, but I'd say everything points to him being a sure fire bottom 6 NHLer with middle six upside.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 15 @ 1:32 PM ET
Then don't draft anyone, ever. (frank) EVERY DRAFT PICK YOU HAVE AND ONLY SIGN "KNOWN" NHL PLAYERS. Seriously... do you read before posting... that was such an idiotic and stupid statement to dismiss a signing due to no NHL experience. McDavid had no NHL experience when drafted, I didn't see you pissing on his face.
- Guile

Wut?
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Mar 15 @ 1:38 PM ET
When analyzing NCAA and major junior talent and whether or not they have a good probability of panning out in the NHL, where and if they were drafted is fairly irrelevant. Drafting is based on speculation from their perceived physical tools and production at lower levels of amature competition or a very small sample size of major juniors if they go that rout. Where as once a player concludes their armature career there is concrete data at the highest levels of amature competition.

Two things you look for to evaluate probability of success: 1)steady improvement over the course of their amuture career and 2) level of production from their most recent season or two of amature hockey. Continued improvement shows that they truly have been getting better and reduces the possibility that if they all of a sudden explode in one of their final years for a ton of points it's just an anomaly. Basically it's an indication that high levels of production, if that player has achieved it, are sustainable. You also want to take into consideration the most recent sample year or years because that is the most telling of the level of player the player is at the present (duh) if you have sufficient confidence they're not just having an anomaly year (that's where improvement over time comes in)

In the case of ZAR, he has displayed steady improvement over his colligiant career and put up elite production number this year without the help of his talented regular linemates for a lot of the season. His improvement suggests that his elite scoring is for real and is thus a good prospect. However, he's also 22 and therefore one of the oldest players in his league and near the end of his development, so his elite scoring doesn't mean the same as say Jack Eichel's domination of the league at 19 years old, so I wouldn't say he's on track to be a top 6 guy, but I'd say everything points to him being a sure fire bottom 6 NHLer with middle six upside.

- Victoro311


Das cool. I can fux with this.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 15 @ 1:50 PM ET
Undrafted players all suck.

/end
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Mar 15 @ 2:32 PM ET
Undrafted players all suck.

/end

- jmatchett383

sure glad i was drafted then
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 15 @ 2:36 PM ET
sure glad i was drafted then
- stayinthefnnet

Yeah they don't let you go undrafted on NHL17
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 15 @ 3:01 PM ET
sure glad i was drafted then
- stayinthefnnet


Yeah, but joke's on you, you got drafted by the Flyers.
Zac_O
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.17.2015

Mar 15 @ 3:30 PM ET
Yeah, but joke's on you, you got drafted by the Flyers.
- jmatchett383

That is a bad thing. They ruined my favorite player. Tooooooooooooootally wasn't that he wasn't good enough for the NHL. No. It was the Flyers fault. Another reason to hate them.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 15 @ 3:31 PM ET
That is a bad thing. They ruined my favorite player. Tooooooooooooootally wasn't that he wasn't good enough for the NHL. No. It was the Flyers fault. Another reason to hate them.
- Zac_O


Kevin "Hookers and Coke" Stevens?
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Mar 15 @ 3:32 PM ET
Yeah they don't let you go undrafted on NHL17
- Feds91Stammer

im still rocking NHL11
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Mar 15 @ 3:33 PM ET
Yeah, but joke's on you, you got drafted by the Flyers.
- jmatchett383

wouldnt shock me. they love players with limited puck skill
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 15 @ 3:34 PM ET
wouldnt shock me. they love players with limited puck skill
- stayinthefnnet


Are you a "hard-working, 200 foot player?" Do you play a "safe" style?
Zac_O
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.17.2015

Mar 15 @ 3:46 PM ET
Kevin "Hookers and Coke" Stevens?
- jmatchett383

No. Andreas Nodl. He played for my favorite local USHL team.

I was a fan of coke "fan" Ryan Malone though. Yaaaa coke!
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