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Forums :: Blog World :: Peter Tessier: Laine vs Mathews Round 2
Author Message
twiztedmike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.06.2007

Feb 21 @ 4:21 PM ET
The last huzzah of the defeated internet poster. Gammer and speeling.


Sorry, I should spell peoples names right. It's rude and was unintentional, I just don't bother much for stuff like this.

- Aerchon

Hey Ricky, I believe it's "hurrah" not "huzzah"
stormey
Location: it is Babsy turning a boy into a man - JL0961
Joined: 10.13.2005

Feb 21 @ 4:22 PM ET
Your point is obviously valid, but it's a part of the story. It hinges on the assumption that Laine grabs a few more points if he played those 8 games (let's call the one point difference a wash, humor me) and that's a good assumption because it's almost a certainty. Let's assume he plays those games and picks up 7 points. Let's assume Matthews gets 3 points in his next 4 (just to get them both at 62). So we've got Laine at 59 points and Matthews at 52, both in 62 games. Now swap linemates. Scheifele/Ehlers vs Brown/Hymen. Does anyone here think that doesn't make up for a 7 point difference?

That's why points don't separate these two, at least not right now.

- Jeffmt

7 points in 8 games only puts him at 60 games.
Regardless...there is now denying Laine is playing with better line-mates. Ehlers is off his line right now...just an FYI...Perreault is now playing with Scheifele an Laine. Still better.
Jeffmt
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 10.11.2006

Feb 21 @ 4:24 PM ET
7 points in 8 games only puts him at 60 games.
Regardless...there is now denying Laine is playing with better line-mates. Ehlers is off his line right now...just an FYI...Perreault is now playing with Scheifele an Laine. Still better.

- stormey


Laine has played 54.
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 4:25 PM ET
We decided it wasn't solely about points.
- walshyleafsfan


It should not be about points but traditionally is about total points.

Sorry to repeat myself but it really is an important distinction. As is quality of competition when looking at someone's overall play. Third line QOC versus first line QOC, I think is a big factor for why Laine is just simply better... over the course of the season so far.
thebutlerdunnit
Joined: 02.20.2012

Feb 21 @ 4:30 PM ET
Calder trophy, not Calder Cup. That's a different thing. Neither of these guys should ever have to worry about a Calder Cup.

Both guys are good, but only one is so goal hungry that he rifled one past his own goalkeeper. I can't remember who looked more annoyed; Paul Maurice or Connor Hellebuyck
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 4:33 PM ET
Hey Ricky, I believe it's "hurrah" not "huzzah"
- twiztedmike


Sorry Bubbles, I only have my grade 8. Now leave me to my jalapano chips and you can go back to the cat shed.
walshyleafsfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I really don't care about Nylander, I really hope he gets injured and is out - Makita
Joined: 07.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 4:41 PM ET
I have to point out that Panarin played with Kane and still won the Calder... albeit like Laine playing against significantly stronger opposition than Mathews.
- Aerchon

I haven't noticed Matthews paying against the bottom 2 lines to be honest, but I could easily be proved wrong.

I'm think the quality of opposition is somewhat wiped out by the quality of teammates and vice versa.
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Feb 21 @ 4:47 PM ET
honest question, who really cares about the Calder or any NHL Award ? I sure as hell dont and only want Winnipeg to win a cup one day sooner than later I hope.
twiztedmike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.06.2007

Feb 21 @ 4:48 PM ET
Sorry Bubbles, I only have my grade 8. Now leave me to my jalapano chips and you can go back to the cat shed.
- Aerchon

only if you promise to play Spacemen with me
twiztedmike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.06.2007

Feb 21 @ 4:49 PM ET
honest question, who really cares about the Calder or any NHL Award ? I sure as hell dont and only want Winnipeg to win a cup one day sooner than later I hope.
- Ross77

agreed
walshyleafsfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I really don't care about Nylander, I really hope he gets injured and is out - Makita
Joined: 07.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 4:49 PM ET
honest question, who really cares about the Calder or any NHL Award ? I sure as hell dont and only want Winnipeg to win a cup one day sooner than later I hope.
- Ross77

I hear ya. I'm the same. As long as the Leafs win a cup, i'll happily say they drafted the 12th best player in each draft.
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 4:52 PM ET
I haven't noticed Matthews paying against the bottom 2 lines to be honest, but I could easily be proved wrong.

I'm think the quality of opposition is somewhat wiped out by the quality of teammates and vice versa.

- walshyleafsfan


I am going to be honest and say I do not know exactly what Matthews QOC is. I have heard he is facing significantly low competition and that he is playing on the "third" line. But I don't know if he gets a healthy dose of Weber when he plays Montreal as opposed to whoever is on their bottom pairing.

But it is an extremely big factor in hockey that is greatly overlooked by many who only look at points and advanced stats. Playing against teams with great top 4 defenders regularly and producing is way harder than doing so against bottom pairing types night in and night out.

In this case it may well be a wash, but even if that is the case, isn't that still a strong argument that Laine is currently the better of the two? More points/goals/ppg/plus minus all with less games played?
Aerchon
Joined: 10.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 4:56 PM ET
honest question, who really cares about the Calder or any NHL Award ? I sure as hell dont and only want Winnipeg to win a cup one day sooner than later I hope.
- Ross77


I agree wholeheartedly but for me that is only because of the poor way the awards are decided.

The Norris is an even bigger can of worms than the Calder.

Its best just to ignore the awards completely.
stormey
Location: it is Babsy turning a boy into a man - JL0961
Joined: 10.13.2005

Feb 21 @ 5:11 PM ET
Laine has played 54.
- Jeffmt

Yeah. My bad
kaptaan
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Turning a new Leaf, CA
Joined: 09.29.2010

Feb 21 @ 5:12 PM ET
Laine is in the lead right now.... i don't buy the whole Laine is playing with a better team argument.

Leafs have been rebuilding for a LOT of years and have put in place many pieces of the puzzle.

Laine is putting up better numbers in fewer games, etc.. etc...
twiztedmike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.06.2007

Feb 21 @ 5:13 PM ET
Yeah. My bad
- stormey

hey stormey

Chief twiztedmike of the HockeyBuzz Internet Police Task Force here.

It's okay. The mistake you made was an innocent one. You aren't in trouble.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Feb 21 @ 5:13 PM ET
I am going to be honest and say I do not know exactly what Matthews QOC is. I have heard he is facing significantly low competition and that he is playing on the "third" line. But I don't know if he gets a healthy dose of Weber when he plays Montreal as opposed to whoever is on their bottom pairing.

But it is an extremely big factor in hockey that is greatly overlooked by many who only look at points and advanced stats. Playing against teams with great top 4 defenders regularly and producing is way harder than doing so against bottom pairing types night in and night out.

In this case it may well be a wash, but even if that is the case, isn't that still a strong argument that Laine is currently the better of the two? More points/goals/ppg/plus minus all with less games played?

- Aerchon


Significantly low competition? Huh? No need to pull stuff out of your ass.

If you want real stats. Laine has been playing with Schifelie all season and Ehlers for the majority. Matthews has been playing with two rookies. Brown and Hyman. And occasionally Nylander.

His shooting percentage is at 19% while Matthews is at 14%. While Laine also having 3 empty net goals. I should mention the league average is 9% while Ovi(the best shooter in the game has a 12.5% career average with his best season coming at 14.5%) yes , Laine's shooting% is extremely high. Which is not possible to keep up.

Matthews having 205 shots over Laine's 150.

Not only has Matthews been dominant offensively he has also been dominant defensivly where as Laine's Defense is non existent.

All that while playing the much harder position

Both extremely good players but Matthews is the clear Calder winner right now.
twiztedmike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.06.2007

Feb 21 @ 5:13 PM ET
Laine is in the lead right now.... i don't buy the whole Laine is playing with a better team argument.

Leafs have been rebuilding for a LOT of years and have put in place many pieces of the puzzle.

Laine is putting up better numbers in fewer games, etc.. etc...

- kaptaan

Hey, how would you compare the Canucks and Jets?

Jets are better?
BookemDano
Joined: 12.06.2016

Feb 21 @ 5:15 PM ET
I guess you can only hope the "more complete" player will earn the coaches trust enough to be put out there in the last minute and a half to protect a one goal lead.
- stormey

The more complete player also has 63% offensive zone starts vs 37% defensive zone. Zone starts have a huge impact in the underlying numbers but for some reason the Leaf media gloss over this little stat.
walshyleafsfan
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I really don't care about Nylander, I really hope he gets injured and is out - Makita
Joined: 07.14.2011

Feb 21 @ 5:16 PM ET
I am going to be honest and say I do not know exactly what Matthews QOC is. I have heard he is facing significantly low competition and that he is playing on the "third" line. But I don't know if he gets a healthy dose of Weber when he plays Montreal as opposed to whoever is on their bottom pairing.

But it is an extremely big factor in hockey that is greatly overlooked by many who only look at points and advanced stats. Playing against teams with great top 4 defenders regularly and producing is way harder than doing so against bottom pairing types night in and night out.

In this case it may well be a wash, but even if that is the case, isn't that still a strong argument that Laine is currently the better of the two? More points/goals/ppg/plus minus all with less games played?

- Aerchon


Laine had been playing great. It's only my opinion, but Liane's 16 goals 5v5 isn't as impressive as Matthews' 24. But that's just me. PP goals and EN goals have accounted for 43% of his goals vs Matthews' 14.5%. Again, it's just me, but I prefer the 5on5 complete player (probably because they are few and far between on Toronto)
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Feb 21 @ 5:30 PM ET
The more complete player also has 63% offensive zone starts vs 37% defensive zone. Zone starts have a huge impact in the underlying numbers but for some reason the Leaf media gloss over this little stat.
- BookemDano


You say that but ignore every other advanced stats where Matthews is killing him in....
BookemDano
Joined: 12.06.2016

Feb 21 @ 5:38 PM ET
Significantly low competition? Huh? No need to pull stuff out of your ass.

If you want real stats. Laine has been playing with Schifelie all season and Ehlers for the majority. Matthews has been playing with two rookies. Brown and Hyman. And occasionally Nylander.

His shooting percentage is at 19% while Matthews is at 14%. While Laine also having 3 empty net goals. I should mention the league average is 9% while Ovi(the best shooter in the game has a 12.5% career average with his best season coming at 14.5%) yes , Laine's shooting% is extremely high. Which is not possible to keep up.

Matthews having 205 shots over Laine's 150.

Not only has Matthews been dominant offensively he has also been dominant defensivly where as Laine's Defense is non existent.

All that while playing the much harder position

Both extremely good players but Matthews is the clear Calder winner right now.

- Santo_44

Clearly? I think not. Schieffele or Little, it matters not, Laine puts up points with either one. He has played a dozen games with Little.

In November when Laine had a 17% shooting percentage the naysayers said he would never keep it up.
In January when Laine had an 18% shooting percentage the naysayers said ha would never keep it up.
Today Laine has a 19% shooting percentage and the naysayers say he will never keep it up.
Not a very good track record so far naysayers.

Matthews 205 shots and corsi numbers are greatly aided by the fact that he has 63% of his starts in the offensive zone. The complete player is being sheltered big time.
BookemDano
Joined: 12.06.2016

Feb 21 @ 5:46 PM ET
You say that but ignore every other advanced stats where Matthews is killing him in....
- Santo_44


That is the reason for it. Corsi measures the shot attempt differential of a player while on the ice including shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots for and against. well if you start nearly two thirds of your shifts in the offensive zone you are going to automatically get more shot opportunities.

Laine has worked very hard on his defensive game and his corsi has improved over 3% in his last 25 games. The gap has shrunk a lot and at this rate Laine will end up at a 51% corsi... Matthews is 52.9.
Peter Tessier
Joined: 10.11.2011

Feb 21 @ 5:53 PM ET
You spelled Auston wrong once and Matthews wrong 10 times
- twiztedmike


That's auto-correct and he deserves nothing because he has a weird spelling to his name. He's American, why does he have to be so European?
Rang
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 08.21.2006

Feb 21 @ 5:57 PM ET
Laine is in the lead right now.... i don't buy the whole Laine is playing with a better team argument.

Leafs have been rebuilding for a LOT of years and have put in place many pieces of the puzzle.

Laine is putting up better numbers in fewer games, etc.. etc...

- kaptaan


The team is not much better ( both mediocre) but Scheifelle is one of the best players in the league vs. Connor Brown a former 6th rounder and Zach Hyman who is a hard working but not offensively talented 4th liner.

In any case, both teams got what they needed and would probably make the same picks again if they could do it over.
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