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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Simmonds All-Star MVP, AHL Skills Competition, Rubtsov
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dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:22 AM ET
Nice to see Simmonds get the MVP. At least the flyers win something this year! ......... relax! Just screwing with you guys. I was really impressed with Simmonds though I have to say. He played really well and showed a lot of skill as well as the goals. When you don't watch a player day in day out you really don't see how good they are. For me he now becomes a player I hate because he's not on MY team and not because he plays for the flyers.
- Bobd62

YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:26 AM ET
Serious question for the deep stats guys:

Do you actually enjoy watching games from a hockey perspective? Iow, can you just watch the games and enjoy the excitement and skill and rooting for your team?

- Scoob

Yes
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:28 AM ET
(frank) it.

+/- is a useless, worthless stat and should be 100% discredited.

Raw shots attempt differentials carry more weight than +/-.

I don't care.

- jmatchett383

I was in a meeting, but I am glad to hear I won while away
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 30 @ 11:32 AM ET
I was in a meeting, but I am glad to hear I won while away
- YuenglingJagr




You get one. It wasn't a very impressive win.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:34 AM ET


You get one. It wasn't a very impressive win.

- Scoob

Meh, what did second place get. Can I trade?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 30 @ 11:34 AM ET
The only stat that truly matters is Proof. It needs to be 80 or greater or it's just not worth drinking.
- BiggE


Question: Why do they use proof instead of %, and only use it for alcohol?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 30 @ 11:36 AM ET
Saw Simmonds and McD chatting in the line after the game. Would love to hear what was being said.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 30 @ 11:39 AM ET
Yes
- YuenglingJagr


Serious question: Do you think that analytics are the best/most useful way to evaluate a player? Maybe the only way?
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:39 AM ET
Question: Why do they use proof instead of %, and only use it for alcohol?
- jmatchett383

I use it for goals allowed by andrew macdonald...boosts my numbers a bit to make him look worse
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 30 @ 11:47 AM ET
Question: Why do they use proof instead of %, and only use it for alcohol?
- jmatchett383


Because alcoholic beverages are treasured and special and deserve their own category.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 30 @ 11:48 AM ET
Saw Simmonds and McD chatting in the line after the game. Would love to hear what was being said.
- jmatchett383


McD: Brandon Manning is a jerk
Simmer: Lighten up princess, I would have hit you much harder.
McD: MOMMY!!!!!!!!!!
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:50 AM ET
Serious question: Do you think that analytics are the best/most useful way to evaluate a player? Maybe the only way?
- jmatchett383

I would say no, but I don't think any individual way is the best.

I personally prefer to use analytics as a measure of sustainability rather than how good/bad someone is.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 30 @ 11:52 AM ET
Because alcoholic beverages are treasured and special and deserve their own category.
- BiggE


I just read up on it. It's an archaic system based on trying to burn gunpowder soaked in run and then by 12/13 the specific volume of alcohol to water (4/7). Therefore, in the UK, 175 proof was the highest you could get because they used 1.75 x alcohol by volume.

The USA, being the USA, said (frank) it and just made it twice the %ABV. Because USA. In this case, it makes a lot more sense. Still doesn't explain why they don't just use %ABV.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 30 @ 11:54 AM ET
I would say no, but I don't think any individual way is the best.

I personally prefer to use analytics as a measure of sustainability rather than how good/bad someone is.

- YuenglingJagr


So if I wanted to know what you thought of, say, Shayne Gostisbehere and his gameplay, how would you describe it? Without using analytics.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 11:56 AM ET
So if I wanted to know what you thought of, say, Shayne Gostisbehere and his gameplay, how would you describe it? Without using analytics.
- jmatchett383

unlucky
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 30 @ 12:01 PM ET
unlucky
- YuenglingJagr


So you'd say that Shayne Gostisbehere, for his pro career, is "unlucky."

I ask because, for the people who seem to base the majority of their player evaluations of analytical methods, I'm wondering how they would evaluate the players of past eras where such things were not tracked. I'm not saying you are one of those people, but they do exist both on this site and this specific blog.

I could tell you that Bobby Orr was good because I've watched him play (on film), I've seen the numbers he put up, and I've heard other players talk about him. For all I know, he was outshot 3-1 on the ice (he probably wasn't), but there isn't sufficient analytical data out there to use to classify him.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jan 30 @ 12:05 PM ET
McD: Brandon Manning is a jerk
Simmer: Lighten up princess, I would have hit you much harder.
McD: MOMMY!!!!!!!!!!

- BiggE


lol!
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 12:08 PM ET
So you'd say that Shayne Gostisbehere, for his pro career, is "unlucky."

I ask because, for the people who seem to base the majority of their player evaluations of analytical methods, I'm wondering how they would evaluate the players of past eras where such things were not tracked. I'm not saying you are one of those people, but they do exist both on this site and this specific blog.

- jmatchett383

It was a joke.

I think he is a very good, exciting defenseman and hockey player. Great nickname too. His instagram is a little too "dog-centric" for me.

I think both phenomena exist, as there are plenty of examples of people just worrying about goals and results without worrying about the process.

There is a bit of a chicken or the egg argument with teams being considered good, but I think, as PSG mentioned, knowing these things can aid you in viewing certain aspects of the game.

YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 12:13 PM ET
So you'd say that Shayne Gostisbehere, for his pro career, is "unlucky."

I ask because, for the people who seem to base the majority of their player evaluations of analytical methods, I'm wondering how they would evaluate the players of past eras where such things were not tracked. I'm not saying you are one of those people, but they do exist both on this site and this specific blog.

I could tell you that Bobby Orr was good because I've watched him play (on film), I've seen the numbers he put up, and I've heard other players talk about him. For all I know, he was outshot 3-1 on the ice (he probably wasn't), but there isn't sufficient analytical data out there to use to classify him.

- jmatchett383


Replying for a different reason.

Like I said, the reason I use them for mostly is sustainability.

As an example you can use Ghost. Using plenty of data available, you could see that while he was doing a lot of things great, he was simply scoring at historic and beyond sustainable rates. Clearly producing above levels that would continue. Same thing is happening now with opposite effect.

Another example, one that is more "complete"...Vandevelde. Remember all the fun we had with him scoring 5 goals and producing more than blah blah blah. "His production was great from a 4th liner and he wasn't a problem." Wasn't hard to see how unsustainable and lucky his numbers were, and low and behold, we are about to hit 25 games without a goal.

I watch him and think he sucks, and I see he sucks by the numbers, but neither were used in determining that his offensive production was completely unrealistic.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jan 30 @ 12:14 PM ET
Serious question: Do you think that analytics are the best/most useful way to evaluate a player? Maybe the only way?
- jmatchett383


McD: if we get you in the playoffs we're probably beating you

Simmer: probably
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jan 30 @ 12:15 PM ET
Because alcoholic beverages are treasured and special and deserve their own category.
- BiggE


BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 30 @ 12:17 PM ET
McD: if we get you in the playoffs we're probably beating you

Simmer: probably

- Just5

Hmm, I'm probably not gonna bet on a Philly-Edmonton matchup in this years Stanley Cup finals.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 30 @ 12:18 PM ET
Replying for a different reason.

Like I said, the reason I use them for mostly is sustainability.

As an example you can use Ghost. Using plenty of data available, you could see that while he was doing a lot of things great, he was simply scoring at historic and beyond sustainable rates. Clearly producing above levels that would continue. Same thing is happening now with opposite effect.

Another example, one that is more "complete"...Vandevelde. Remember all the fun we had with him scoring 5 goals and producing more than blah blah blah. "His production was great from a 4th liner and he wasn't a problem." Wasn't hard to see how unsustainable and lucky his numbers were, and low and behold, we are about to hit 25 games without a goal.

I watch him and think he sucks, and I see he sucks by the numbers, but neither were used in determining that his offensive production was completely unrealistic.

- YuenglingJagr


You don't need advanced stats to see that VdV sucks, I just wish someone would point that out to Hak.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 30 @ 12:21 PM ET
Replying for a different reason.

Like I said, the reason I use them for mostly is sustainability.

As an example you can use Ghost. Using plenty of data available, you could see that while he was doing a lot of things great, he was simply scoring at historic and beyond sustainable rates. Clearly producing above levels that would continue. Same thing is happening now with opposite effect.


- YuenglingJagr



There is no doubt that Gostisbehere to use a cliché, was red hot last season, and not so much this season. So if we remove what we might label outliers for his production rate, and come up with a reasonable expectation for what we feel his production level should be, one, do you feel he is at the level, and if not, why?
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jan 30 @ 12:24 PM ET
There is no doubt that Gostisbehere to use a cliché, was red hot last season, and not so much this season. So if we remove what we might label outliers for his production rate, and come up with a reasonable expectation for what we feel his production level should be, one, do you feel he is at the level, and if not, why?
- MJL

Currently? What time frame are you talking about?

I think he should be and will be scoring more
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