What if they trade Fleury tomorrow and bring Jarry up? What I am trying to say that you may be missing is that the time for sharing the net is over. It's time for Murray to play starter minutes and MAF to be the backup. No more playing one today and the othe 2 days later. MAF plays back to backs and against weaker teams. That's all I'm trying to say. No what ifs or speculation of any kind.
- Dcoms

No to Jarry being the back-up. He needs playing time. His ability as a back-up isn't going to be much higher than a replacement level veteran back-up.

(frank)ing Jordan Staal is a .622 ppg this year.

Toews isn't even on pace to hit 50 points this year.
- BINGO!

I would have agree with the Hawks trading Toews instead of Terravanian. I just think Toews is horribly over rated and the Hawks need cap room. The extra cash would have allowed them to keep a balanced line up. And I think Toews even at his salary would have brought back a haul. Maybe even a center that is his equal analytically but costs $4 million less per year (a good 2C) and then some picks/prospects. It would be like the Sutter/Bonino swap but at a higher scale.

He's split the season between Sid and Geno, so it's showing both.

243 minutes with Sid vs. 175 with Geno
- j.boyd919

418 minutes playing with either Sid or Geno and only 3 even strength goals ? I love what Hornqvist brings to the Penguins but at some point he has to produce at even strength because after a certain length of time I don't think you can call it bad luck anymore

I would have agree with the Hawks trading Toews instead of Terravanian. I just think Toews is horribly over rated and the Hawks need cap room. The extra cash would have allowed them to keep a balanced line up. And I think Toews even at his salary would have brought back a haul. Maybe even a center that is his equal analytically but costs $4 million less per year (a good 2C) and then some picks/prospects. It would be like the Sutter/Bonino swap but at a higher scale.
- sditulli

You could get an outrageous haul for Toews.

Or could have gotten. Not so much anymore.

Well they are judging a guy on past events that are deemed more reproducible than raw goal/assists totals. So its easier to replicate than something that involves more luck like a shooting percentages. Its the higher likelihood of replicability (creating good chances) than the replicability of a sudden spike in shooting percentage.
- sditulli

I disagree. If you take a large sample, say 2-3 years, and look at a players "raw" goal/assist/shot/shooting% totals (I find that term "raw" funny when NOT dealing with advanced stats), that should account for fluctuations which should represent what to expect as opposed to how many chances/shots he gets over a segment of games.

Basically, my whole take on analytics is that they're a good tool to verify things and make broad assumptions on what is likely to happen in the near future. But using them as a be-all/end-all tool and using them as a definitive source of what will happen in the future, as the blog author does, is making erroneous assumptions. Also, simply out-CORSIing a team does not mean you will beat them in a game, or in a best-of-seven series. That only happens when your team scores more goals than the other team, despite the amount of shots/chances you have.

418 minutes playing with either Sid or Geno and only 3 even strength goals ? I love what Hornqvist brings to the Penguins but at some point he has to produce at even strength because after a certain length of time I don't think you can call it bad luck anymore
- willi

Still on pace for 50 points.

Still on pace for 50 points.
- j.boyd919

On pace for, or expected?

I disagree. If you take a large sample, say 2-3 years, and look at a players "raw" goal/assist/shot/shooting% totals (I find that term "raw" funny when NOT dealing with advanced stats), that should account for fluctuations which should represent what to expect as opposed to how many chances/shots he gets over a segment of games.

Basically, my whole take on analytics is that they're a good tool to verify things and make broad assumptions on what is likely to happen in the near future. But using them as a be-all/end-all tool and using them as a definitive source of what will happen in the future, as the blog author does, is making erroneous assumptions. Also, simply out-CORSIing a team does not mean you will beat them in a game, or in a best-of-seven series. That only happens when your team scores more goals than the other team, despite the amount of shots/chances you have.
- jmatchett383

2-3 year sample sizes take too long to generate. You want a stat that can give you a quicker read on a guys play. Hornqvists long-term stats are fine. But he's not producing this year. You turn to analytics to see if he's declining as a player or having bad luck. Since he's still creating a lot of offense its reasonable to assume his decline this year is due to luck rather than a decline in skill.

If we went with your metrics we would wait 2-3 years to see if a guy is really declining.

ITs ok a lot of people just don't understand statistics.

2-3 year sample sizes take too long to generate. You want a stat that can give you a quicker read on a guys play. Hornqvists long-term stats are fine. But he's not producing this year. You turn to analytics to see if he's declining as a player or having bad luck. Since he's still creating a lot of offense its reasonable to assume his decline this year is due to luck rather than a decline in skill.

If we went with your metrics we would wait 2-3 years to see if a guy is really declining.

ITs ok a lot of people just don't understand statistics.
- sditulli

So he's just had back luck for 50+ games at 5v5, but fairly good luck for 50+ games on the PP??? Sorry, not buying that. And if you can, then analytics are useless since everything's just a roll of the dice and it doesn't matter how many times you roll them.

I'm not saying he's not playing well or that he's in decline. But I don't think "luck" is something you can attribute half a season to.