Playing a guy every 2 nights for 3 months would probably wear him out by the end of the regular season. MAF is gonna need, at the very least, spot starts.
- jmatchett383

Obviously but Murray needs the lions share. I was talking about the way they have been flip flopping them every game all season. It's time for MAF to get backup minutes not every other game.

Because the way he plays, his line generates so many opportunities, he's expected to score much more. Dude's just having bad luck this season at 5v5. His high danger corsi % is 65%. First among players with over 20 games. 144 HDCF, 76 HDCA.
- j.boyd919

That's my issue with the "expected" stats, and really my issue with a lot of analytics. They don't (shouldn't be used to) predict the future, they are only and indicator what could happen based on past events, assuming nothing changes (a horrible assumption). The "expected" one is even worse, because it implies what is expected to happen, even when the hard stats show that it is not happening, for whatever reason(s).

Obviously but Murray needs the lions share. I was talking about the way they have been flip flopping them every game all season. It's time for MAF to get backup minutes not every other game.
- Dcoms

What would you do if Murray has a run of 3-4 bad (>=5 GA) games?

Not saying I disagree with your intent, but if Murray struggles and is in a rut, you may need to give him more than a few days' breather.

What would you do if Murray has a run of 3-4 bad (>=5 GA) games?

Not saying I disagree with your intent, but if Murray struggles and is in a rut, you may need to give him more than a few days' breather.
- jmatchett383

What if they trade Fleury tomorrow and bring Jarry up? What I am trying to say that you may be missing is that the time for sharing the net is over. It's time for Murray to play starter minutes and MAF to be the backup. No more playing one today and the othe 2 days later. MAF plays back to backs and against weaker teams. That's all I'm trying to say. No what ifs or speculation of any kind.

That's my issue with the "expected" stats, and really my issue with a lot of analytics. They don't (shouldn't be used to) predict the future, they are only and indicator what could happen based on past events, assuming nothing changes (a horrible assumption). The "expected" one is even worse, because it implies what is expected to happen, even when the hard stats show that it is not happening, for whatever reason(s).
- jmatchett383

So.. here's a question...

If you are the coach and watching him play, you like what you see, the way he's playing, the chances his line is generating, etc... do you tell horny to try to switch it up? Do things differently? Or do you tell him to keep playing his game and expect the points to come?

Or.. before telling horny anything, do you go to your black box stats guys (because every team has them) and ask them how horny is doing.. find out that his analytics are backing up what you're seeing, and let him continue his play the way it is? Or do you tell him to switch things up to try and get production but possibly sacrificing other parts of his game, which are generating chances, and keeping the puck out of your net?

So.. here's a question...

If you are the coach and watching him play, you like what you see, the way he's playing, the chances his line is generating, etc... do you tell horny to try to switch it up? Do things differently? Or do you tell him to keep playing his game and expect the points to come?

Or.. before telling horny anything, do you go to your black box stats guys (because every team has them) and ask them how horny is doing.. find out that his analytics are backing up what you're seeing, and let him continue his play the way it is? Or do you tell him to switch things up to try and get production but possibly sacrificing other parts of his game, which are generating chances, and keeping the puck out of your net?
- j.boyd919

I wouldn't tell him to switch his game up because 1) I think he brings more to the table than scoring goals himself and 2) his linemates are producing just fine. That still doesn't mean I should be "expecting" a drastic uptick in 5v5 goals this year after 3 in 50 games.

What if they trade Fleury tomorrow and bring Jarry up? What I am trying to say that you may be missing is that the time for sharing the net is over. It's time for Murray to play starter minutes and MAF to be the backup. No more playing one today and the othe 2 days later. MAF plays back to backs and against weaker teams. That's all I'm trying to say. No what ifs or speculation of any kind.
- Dcoms

I agree he should be the primary starter by intent. And I know you were implying things you didn't say, I'm just not a fan of large blanket statement (i.e. play Murray every game). Sorry, I know it can be annoying.

I wouldn't tell him to switch his game up because 1) I think he brings more to the table than scoring goals himself and 2) his linemates are producing just fine. That still doesn't mean I should be "expecting" a drastic uptick in 5v5 goals this year after 3 in 50 games.
- jmatchett383

I agree, I wouldn't necessarily be EXPECTING more goals, but what it shows me is that he's driving play and generating chances, and just having bad luck.

Will disagree to some point. The lottery projections are made on limited scouting of kids when they were 17. A lot can change both in kids development and when real scouting occurs as the draft approaches.

The NFL draft of 22 year olds who have played at a much more level competition level routinely sees top 10 picks fall into the 2nd or 3rd round. Though that is often from injury or character concerns.
- sditulli

So then why wouldn't you take the flyer on the guy with incredible upside but dropped due to intangibles if at that point its just throwing darts? No point in going with the "safe" pick since no pick is truly safe.

So.. here's a question...

If you are the coach and watching him play, you like what you see, the way he's playing, the chances his line is generating, etc... do you tell horny to try to switch it up? Do things differently? Or do you tell him to keep playing his game and expect the points to come?

Or.. before telling horny anything, do you go to your black box stats guys (because every team has them) and ask them how horny is doing.. find out that his analytics are backing up what you're seeing, and let him continue his play the way it is? Or do you tell him to switch things up to try and get production but possibly sacrificing other parts of his game, which are generating chances, and keeping the puck out of your net?
- j.boyd919

Are you saying keep him with Malkin ? Wasn't yesterdays discussion about Hornqvist and Rust switching spots ? Also are high danger scoring chances only calculated from the location of the shot or is the quality of the shot considered because alot of Hornqvists shots are him banging away at the puck from in close(sometimes in to close) which would also explain Parise being so high on the list

I wouldn't tell him to switch his game up because 1) I think he brings more to the table than scoring goals himself and 2) his linemates are producing just fine. That still doesn't mean I should be "expecting" a drastic uptick in 5v5 goals this year after 3 in 50 games.
- jmatchett383

I just wish they would switch the god damn lines up. I wanna see...

Sheary-Sid-Horny
Guentzal-Geno-Kessel
Hagelin-Bonino-Rust
Kunitz-Cullen-Fehr/Kuhn/Wilson

Are you saying keep him with Malkin ? Wasn't yesterdays discussion about Hornqvist and Rust switching spots ? Also are high danger scoring chances only calculated from the location of the shot or is the quality of the shot considered because alot of Hornqvists shots are him banging away at the puck from in close(sometimes in to close) which would also explain Parise being so high on the list
- willi

Nah, I'd like to see him with Sid instead.. I asked them about that, here's the answer from naturalstattrick...



It's the old War-on-Ice definition. Based on location, attempt type and if it's a rush or rebound attempt. A high danger chance is any unblocked attempt (miss/shot/goal) or blocked rush/rebound attempt from the blue, or any unblocked rush/rebound attempt in the red. A scoring chance is any attempt (block/miss/shot/goal) from the blue, any unblocked attempt or blocked rush/rebound attempt in the red, or any unblocked rush/rebound attempt in the yellow.

EDIT: fixed.

Where's the chart that shows Toews' leading in leadership per game
- jchst22

They had to trade Teuvo Teravainen (.545 points per game) so they could pay Toews (.579 points per game) $10.5 million.

That's $9.6 million more for a projected 3 extra points.

I agree, I wouldn't necessarily be EXPECTING more goals, but what it shows me is that he's driving play and generating chances, and just having bad luck.
- j.boyd919

That, or he's just having trouble finishing at 5v5. Yes, his line is generating chances at 5v5, but that doesn't automatically equate to goals for any specific player.

Are you saying keep him with Malkin ? Wasn't yesterdays discussion about Hornqvist and Rust switching spots ? Also are high danger scoring chances only calculated from the location of the shot or is the quality of the shot considered because alot of Hornqvists shots are him banging away at the puck from in close(sometimes in to close) which would also explain Parise being so high on the list
- willi

I don't think switching his spot in the lineup is the same as asking him to make adjustments to his play.

That, or he's just having trouble finishing at 5v5. Yes, his line is generating chances at 5v5, but that doesn't automatically equate to goals for any specific player.
- jmatchett383

Is having trouble finishing and having bad luck really that different?

No it doesn't automatically equate to goals, but the more chances you get, the better chance you have at scoring.

Is having trouble finishing and having bad luck really that different?

No it doesn't automatically equate to goals, but the more chances you get, the better chance you have at scoring.
- j.boyd919

Yes, they are, Bad luck is puck bouncing on you, passes being off target, goalies making miraculous saves. Lack of finishing would be the inability to score based on poor shooting/stick handling. Luck can be a part of that, but they're not the same.

I agree, more lottery tickets mean more chances of winning. For me, in general (not specific to Hornqvist), I'll take the hard production over the generated chances. In other words, would you rather win a game where you were outchanced/outshot or lose a game when you outchanced/outshot an opponent? All things equal, yes, more shots/chances lead to more goals. But all things are never equal.

I don't think switching his spot in the lineup is the same as asking him to make adjustments to his play.
- j.boyd919

Oh I agree but if the expected goals are there while playing with Malkin why change the lines? Thanks for the scoring chance graph although I'm still trying to make sence of it

Oh I agree but if the expected goals are there while playing with Malkin why change the lines? Thanks for the scoring chance graph although I'm still trying to make sence of it

- willi

Maybe because what is "expected" isn't what's actually happening. You can have all the shots/chances in the world, but if they don't turn into goals, what good are they?

They had to trade Teuvo Teravainen (.545 points per game) so they could pay Toews (.579 points per game) $10.5 million.

That's $9.6 million more for a projected 3 extra points.
- BINGO!

But hey that .579ppg still made him an all star

Montreal got off to a great start and hasn't really done much since.
- BINGO!

I'll be honest I thought Raduluv was a brilliant signing in the offseason. I wasn't sure he would work out, but he was a lot cheaper to sign than other UFA guys with a lot more upside. He wasn't old. You didn't have to give out silly term to sign him. Just a 1 year contract using cap room the Canadians didn't have another use for. Low risks.

Oh I agree but if the expected goals are there while playing with Malkin why change the lines? Thanks for the scoring chance graph although I'm still trying to make sence of it

- willi

He's split the season between Sid and Geno, so it's showing both.

243 minutes with Sid vs. 175 with Geno

Maybe because what is "expected" isn't what's actually happening. You can have all the shots/chances in the world, but if they don't turn into goals, what good are they?
- jmatchett383

For sure chances are no good if they don't turn into goals that's why I'm questioning these expected goal stats.

That's my issue with the "expected" stats, and really my issue with a lot of analytics. They don't (shouldn't be used to) predict the future, they are only and indicator what could happen based on past events, assuming nothing changes (a horrible assumption). The "expected" one is even worse, because it implies what is expected to happen, even when the hard stats show that it is not happening, for whatever reason(s).
- jmatchett383

Well they are judging a guy on past events that are deemed more reproducible than raw goal/assists totals. So its easier to replicate than something that involves more luck like a shooting percentages. Its the higher likelihood of replicability (creating good chances) than the replicability of a sudden spike in shooting percentage.

But hey that .579ppg still made him an all star
- willi

(frank)ing Jordan Staal is a .622 ppg this year.

Toews isn't even on pace to hit 50 points this year.