Eh, Hossa was always going to regress a bit (not for long), but Kane is hitting some bad luck as he has a higher expected goal totals than his current counts. His scoring chance rates have actually increased as the season has gone on, which does not match his current sh% at all. If Kane was shooting at just 1% more, he'd be leading the league in points right now by a slim margin.

Look at the charts below - the probability of Toews breaking out is high, Hossa is continuing to play in close well. Kane is shooting from his spots well, in line with normal rates that have increased. Other notes: Panik, Hino, and Hartman are all getting to the right spots.



- L_B_R

I see the charts and believe your numbers. Maybe Hossa and Kane rebound in the last 37 games of the season and into the tournament.

They haven't recently.

I mean this as a compliment, but do you have stat interns who work for you? You're so quick with nice charts and graphs and advanced stats. I also assume you're a stats or numbers guy at your day job. Either that are just clearly a junkie.
- AEL_Fox

Oh, I didn't make those - they're from Hockeyviz, which does player shot locations and well as team (for and against). Really cool tool. The hockey stats community is stellar when it comes to visualizations of data. I'm a part of one of the tracking projects, currently.

And no, not a stats person irl - I'm a developer. Also not 'guy' - the L in my name stands for 'lady'.

Say what you want to about tonight's game, but its a big statement game as was the other night's.

I'm really interested to see how they play after a total disaster in DC.
The Hawks have been getting by and piling up points against the lower end clubs, and have sprinkled in a few wins against some of the better teams as well. They beat a Habs team early on that was 13-2 at the time. The win against the Ducks in Anaheim after Thanksgiving was also a good sign.

But they've been winning with defense and top notch goaltending...the forward depth is a killer and then there's the 800lb gorilla in the room - the captain - being paid a kings ransom and with 7 goals. As Molly mentions you hope there's something still wrong with him.

Meanwhile you've got a Minni club playing extremely well.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks get blown out tonight at home. We'll see what happens.

Oh, I didn't make those - they're from Hockeyviz, which does player shot locations and well as team (for and against). Really cool tool. The hockey stats community is stellar when it comes to visualizations of data. I'm a part of one of the tracking projects, currently.

And no, not a stats person irl - I'm a games developer. Also not 'guy' - the L in my name stands for 'lady'.
- L_B_R

Sorry, my apologies. I know there are several ladies on these boards. Didn't know you were. I shouldn't assume.

Cool to hear you're part of a stats tracking project! Some of you all on these boards do pretty cool things related to hockey whether stats, scouting, playing, etc. I'm just a plain fan who plays rec league (and not well at that!).

I see the charts and believe your numbers. Maybe Hossa and Kane rebound in the last 37 games of the season and into the tournament.

They haven't recently.
- StLBravesFan

And it's hard to pin point why they're not scoring, same with Toews. Over the last 10 games - Kane is 1.1 PPG, Toews is .7, and Hossa is .5, so someone is scoring with their help, at the very least. We just have to hope that all 3 regress up at the opportune time and don't wait too long (aka next season).

What do you all think about Brock Nelson? Think he would help out on the Toews line? What do you think the cost would be?

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let the Blackhawks win this game 8-0.....
Anything less and the pessimistic "pundits" (aka the resident idiot bandwagoners) are going to have a field day on the board tomorrow.
- Katana777

Wow starting already, you must be really worried about this game, you do realize idiot is a critical word. Really the bandwagon fan doesn't care if the team they root for loses so even by definition you are defining yourself.

I just hope we have stoppage in play to challenge an offside or goalie interference. It's really not nhl hockey until that happens. Here's to all the calls coming from Toronto. #removetherefs
(P.S. This is all sarcasm except for the GO HOCKS part.)

GO HOCKS

And it's hard to pin point they're not scoring, same with Toews. Over the last 10 games - Kane is 1.1 PPG, Toews is .7, and Hossa is .5, so someone is scoring with their help, at the very least. We just have to hope that all 3 regress up at the opportune time and don't wait too long (aka next season).
- L_B_R

Yes on the assists - piling them up at normal rates - meaning others (I would guess mostly Panarin and Anisimov, Hossa too) are scoring - but team scoring is suffering because Kane and Toews are not scoring at historical paces - both at career lows.

Sorry, my apologies. I know there are several ladies on these boards. Didn't know you were. I shouldn't assume.

Cool to hear you're part of a stats tracking project! Some of you all on these boards do pretty cool things related to hockey whether stats, scouting, playing, etc. I'm just a plain fan who plays rec league (and not well at that!).
- AEL_Fox

No worries, 'guy' is the default for most. I sometimes wish I had the 'practiced eye' that some fans have just from watching the game - it's why I track, to hopefully learn.

Yes on the assists - piling them up at normal rates - meaning others (I would guess mostly Panarin and Anisimov, Hossa too) are scoring - but team scoring is suffering because Kane and Toews are not scoring at historical paces - both at career lows.
- StLBravesFan

Sure, but looking at the top level doesn't help much figure out why, it's just stating the result. If you look deeper and everything looks as it should, it suggests there will be a turning point. I mean, look at Tavares - prior to his last two games, he only had 11 goals on the season with only 2 goals in 13 games - now he's had 5 in 2 games and is only 4 away from 20. There's no guarantees, obvs, but the odds look good as long as Kane and Toews keep their shot/scoring chance rates up.

Sure, but looking at the top level doesn't help much figure out why, it's just stating the result. If you look deeper and everything looks as it should, it suggests there will be a turning point. I mean, look at Tavares - prior to his last two games, he only had 11 goals on the season with only 2 goals in 13 games - now he's had 5 in 2 games and is only 4 away from 20. There's no guarantees, obvs, but the odds look good as long as Kane and Toews keep their shot/scoring chance rates up.
- L_B_R

From your computer to God's ears - or at least Bettman's....

My hope is, its just a good competitive game tonight not the debacle in Washington.

Rozsival staying in the lineup for an important game like this is rather stupid if u ask me.

JJ Flyers fans are going to hate you every since you got into it with them that you wouldn't resign Mason, they have been tanking , not sure how much is on him but they have been giving up a lot of goals and he has been pulled a few times.

My hope is, its just a good competitive game tonight not the debacle in Washington.
- BetweenTheDots

Looks like the Caps latley are making a lot of teams look like they have been in a debacle.

The Caps are on a roll...the other night, kicked our butts 6-0, today, phillidephia 5-0.

Ideally, if Stan had the assets to trade, he'd get a controllable top 6 wing.....and a guy who can win a face off....esp. short handed.

Face offs are critical, esp in the playoffs.

Looks likeThree young former Hawks had nice games yesterday , Danault 3 A ,TT 1 G 1A, Hayes 2. All three Having not bad seasons Danault 9 G over twenty points , TT 10 over twenty points Hayes leading Rangers in points , How would those three look for Hawks this year that's some pretty good secondary scoring there. Oh well

Say what you want to about tonight's game, but its a big statement game as was the other night's.

I'm really interested to see how they play after a total disaster in DC.
The Hawks have been getting by and piling up points against the lower end clubs, and have sprinkled in a few wins against some of the better teams as well. They beat a Habs team early on that was 13-2 at the time. The win against the Ducks in Anaheim after Thanksgiving was also a good sign.

But they've been winning with defense and top notch goaltending...the forward depth is a killer and then there's the 800lb gorilla in the room - the captain - being paid a kings ransom and with 7 goals. As Molly mentions you hope there's something still wrong with him.

Meanwhile you've got a Minni club playing extremely well.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks get blown out tonight at home. We'll see what happens.
- DK002

/\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\
THIS !

Say what you want to about tonight's game, but its a big statement game as was the other night's.

I'm really interested to see how they play after a total disaster in DC.
The Hawks have been getting by and piling up points against the lower end clubs, and have sprinkled in a few wins against some of the better teams as well. They beat a Habs team early on that was 13-2 at the time. The win against the Ducks in Anaheim after Thanksgiving was also a good sign.

But they've been winning with defense and top notch goaltending...the forward depth is a killer and then there's the 800lb gorilla in the room - the captain - being paid a kings ransom and with 7 goals. As Molly mentions you hope there's something still wrong with him.

Meanwhile you've got a Minni club playing extremely well.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks get blown out tonight at home. We'll see what happens.
- DK002

Well they are NOT winning with defense. They are winning with unbelievable goaltending PERIOD !! This defense gives up more quality chances than just about anybody so that's not great defense. Hopefully tonight they can out shoot with some net front prescence to get some rebound opportunities. If nobody is willing to go to the net tonight, there's some big issues on effort as we all are suspecting. Tonight will answer some questions.

What do you all think about Brock Nelson? Think he would help out on the Toews line? What do you think the cost would be?
- sdbolts68

If we're kicking the tires on the likes of Vanek and Landeskog, why not kick the tires on Nelson and Strome.

My take is that while we sorely need some depth on offense and a top-6 LW would be a good move in the right direction, my gut thinks that it's more than just lack of certain personnel that is keeping this team from being truly upper echelon. Part of it is between the ears and another part is team culture and attitude. Something seems off with the lack of drive to succeed.

I really hate this lack of showing up to play 60 minutes regardless of who the opponent is. It was mentioned that the Hawks weren't prepared for the game against the Caps. I don't think it's a lack of preparation. Professionals who have won 3 Cups and lead those who are thirsting for their first one know how to prepare. If they don't know how or just don't care to prepare anymore, than that's not being a professional anymore.

Either the Blackhawks have enough of a core to add some pieces and make a cup run or they don't. If the answer is "no" to this year, what do they expect to change before next year with this same core? The depth in the organization isn't there to expect major upgrades in play from the young guys a year from now. So does that mean they become sellers at the deadline? Will they look to start a retooling project? Maybe trade some of the higher paid core to get good, cheaper, younger players who can form a new core? Or will they wait until the summer to do that?

And does the organization know what is up with Toews? Do they think he's going to ever recover from whatever ails him? If this isn't the year for the Blackhawks, why not shut him down and see if some extended rest will help him. I'm starting to wonder if the team is going to finish worse than last year and do poorly in the playoffs even though they've banked some wins here at midseason.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let the Blackhawks win this game 8-0.....
Anything less and the pessimistic "pundits" (aka the resident idiot bandwagoners) are going to have a field day on the board tomorrow.
- Katana777

The score will be 8-0 for sure, maybe even 9 or 10 to 0. But be sure that it will be the Hawks with the goose egg, not the Wild.

I said months ago Toews is now a second line Center and therefore in some strange way the goal is now to find a first line Center
I was crucified for saying it
It's called Fan denial
That being said first line Center's don't grow on trees