True, nobody knows what will happen and I wasn't trying to say that I did. Just voicing my opinion and have a discussion with others that don't share my views.

I would argue that the sponsors would want Stan to keep the likes of Kane, Toews, Crawford and Keith. They are still a draw and the face of the team.

I think part of the equation is also the realistic timeline for the front office. If they're looking for immediate success (i.e. taking one season at a time), then I wouldn't be surprised to see a shake up. But if the team is taking a longer term approach (say 3-5 years) in their thinking then I'd expect them to be patient. We don't know what they're thinking but I'd guess they are somewhere in the middle of these two approaches, but leaning towards the second.
- DarthKane

Ok, so they move heaven and earth and get Panarin signed this summer.

Where then does the improvement come from that gets them back into serious contention?

Schmaltz, Motte, Panik, Hinostroza? Better start lighting candles. Most likely, none of those guys are going to be as good as a lot of people think/wish.

Meanwhile, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook all a year older.

It doesn't add up, barring an emergence that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The only one of those guys who seems to have the talent to potentially be a sort of special player is Schmaltz. But honestly, if you compared him to TT at the same age, you would have said TT was fairly obviously the better prospect. Point being, we can't say how dedicated and willing Schmaltz—at his stature—now or in the future—will be.

How did you guys lose to the worst team in the NHL
- lucille

Same way Rick Grimes got heads bashed...

I'm cautiously pessimistic about all of this: a 3-4 record that COULD be 1-6 without outstanding play by Crawford, but could also be 6-1 with an improved PK and PP.

We know the negatives of the season so far, primarily the PK and the growing pains of watching first-year-NHLers (and first-year-pros or first-year-new worlders).

But some positive stats, too:

Through 7 games, the CF% (5X5, not score adjusted) is 52.2% - 9th in the league - certainly better than last year (50.6% and 15th) - and that's with the "kids" playing.

Again 5X5, they've scored 16 goals (2.85 per 60 minutes - 11th) vs. 2.02 per 60 minutes last year - 23rd.

They've given up only 8 goals in 7 games 5X5 (1.43 per 60 - 4th in the league) vs. 2.11 per 60 last year - 17th in the league.

Certainly a small sample size so far - but there are positive signs - everything, positive and negative, will probably regress (or progress) to some kind of norm over time - where the equilibrium winds up will be the key.
- StLBravesFan

Fair points.

Counterpoint: how much have those positive CF numbers been impacted by Q loading up and going for broke with 72-19-88-81 in the third periods of the last 3 games.

I suspect, quite a bit. And that is not sustainable.

I've been saying this for a while (not here though), and it might not be a popular opinion, but Duncan needs to be removed from the PP.
- Antz96

nope

Fair points.

Counterpoint: how much have those positive CF numbers been impacted by Q loading up and going for broke with 72-19-88-81 in the third periods of the last 3 games.

I suspect, quite a bit. And that is not sustainable.
- John Jaeckel

Patrick Kane TOI the last 3 games:
22 min
28 min
25 min

People want to point the improvement in team corsi, well maybe thats just because Q is cutting Kane loose for nearly half the game. I bet the team corsi, to your point, when Kane isnt on the ice, isnt as sparkling as most think

I feel like I'm being Trolled.

Pretty sure its gonna take more than 6 games or 7 games (how many games into the season are they?). 7 new guys on the team, 6 of which I believe haven't played NHL games before the start of the season.

Kempny coming over from different sized ice surface.

Everything is not going to be perfect right away.

Its so god damn early. And people are talking about the end is near and poop.
- BlazinMike

He is talking about all of last year when this team stunk it up 5 on 5. A rookie Russian saved this team's bacon. The 2016 Hawks are less talented with even more new faces. This is year two of the 10.5 mil contracts on top of Anisimov and Seabrooks raises.

Not throwing in the towel on this season. New guys could surprise and really gel but currently this team is void of the top end talent we are accustomed to b/c of the massive contrats the front office gave out.

True, but not until the season after he signed his deal. 19+88 have never been top 3 in scoring so why did they need to be the highest paid players in the NHL? Bc they were the most popular faces on a cup winning TEAM? Their individual performances (even on a stacked roster) never merited the contracts they currently have. Patrick Kane has made a case that he is worth $10.5mil, but only in the last 1.5 seasons. Toews has gone in the exact opposite direction.
- EnzoD

Ouch!

but again very accurate

No, we know we can go 3-3-1. Fact.
- John Jaeckel

On top of that we are not missing just "roll" players. There is a massive Top 6LW void. That Sharp/Saad filled in days past. Would not call either of those players roll players.

I'm looking ahead to next season's payroll and wondering how they can possibly keep Panarin. I wouldn't be surprised if he does get dealt, either at the TDL if they can't make the playoffs, or this summer. And dealing Anisimov might hurt his chances of staying. I have to think he really likes having him for a teammate.

Panarin's value gets inflated playing with Kane. If they moved him to a different line, his trade value goes down. It's possible the Hawks believe they can't sign him, so they have to maximize his trade value, meaning the PAK line doesn't get broken up.

Panarin will bring a lot in a trade, and I would think there would be a lot of teams lining up for him. I don't see it happening with any of the core players with those contracts.

That may be some old pizza under the sofa. NOT happening.

Firing Joel Quenneville because he can't get this jalopy of a "Stanley Cup roster" over 60 would be, ummm, historically unwise.
- John Jaeckel

Maybe so JJ ,I just see a lot of signs that point in that direction .Maybe not after 10 games ,and I personally don't see a possible big move they can make at that point due to cap and NT contracts . You can't fire the hole team ,but the coach ..

How can anyone honestly believe the "market rate" for Toews and Kane was $11 per?

The numbers got out of control once McKenzie reported that they initially asked for $12 mil, which was ludicrous in its own right.

Several things need to be clarified at the time those were signed:
-Toews and Kane were only 2 time cup champions at the time (signed July 2014). Their deals didnt kick in until after they won the cup in 2015

-At the time they signed, the highest cap hit in the league was $9.5 mil by both Malkin and Ovechkin. Malkin had a cup on resume as well as art ross and hart and conn smythe trophies. Ovechkin has won the goal scoring title nearly every year he has been in the league and also has a hart trophy

-The only awards that Toews and Kane had at the time they signed were Conn Smythe, Selke ('13 Toews) and Calder (Kane '08)

-The canadian dollar was notoriously struggling and it was no mystery, but the projections of an exploding cap was grossly overstated as a lot of revenue came in at the time due to the new TV deals in both Canada and the US.

-Had Stan just waited 6 more months to negotiate those deals, he would have watched the canadian dollar crash and the flat cap projections were already coming out by about December

Now why they felt, and Stan agreed, to take DUAL highest cap hits in the league on the same team clearing the highest cap hit in the league by a cool million made any sense from a hockey standpoint, I have no clue. Malkin had a much more impressive resume at the time short 1 cup and they felt they were much more than him.

But lets also not forget the ONLY reason the Hawks won the cup again in 2015 was two fold:

1. Kane and Toews' mega deals didnt kick in yet, so they had the cap space to round out a better roster
2. Kane broke his collarbone and being able to LTIR him cleared space to add a critical third line center in Vermette

If those contracts were in effect that year, no chance they win the cup. You have to wonder if that last year of those previous deals for them in 2015 was truly the swan song because it has been nothing short of a disaster trying to cobble the roster back together from what it was in 2015 since those deals kicked in. Panarin was a nice find, but lets see how generous Bowman is with the extension he is working on right now
- hawkeytalkman

At the time, their agent said they could demand $13.8M on the open market. Obviously that's a biased opinion but at the time the cap looked like it was rising at a much faster rate. http://www.espn.com/chica...trick-kane-jonathan-toews

I'm cautiously pessimistic about all of this: a 3-4 record that COULD be 1-6 without outstanding play by Crawford, but could also be 6-1 with an improved PK and PP.

We know the negatives of the season so far, primarily the PK and the growing pains of watching first-year-NHLers (and first-year-pros or first-year-new worlders).

But some positive stats, too:

Through 7 games, the CF% (5X5, not score adjusted) is 52.2% - 9th in the league - certainly better than last year (50.6% and 15th) - and that's with the "kids" playing.

Again 5X5, they've scored 16 goals (2.85 per 60 minutes - 11th) vs. 2.02 per 60 minutes last year - 23rd.

They've given up only 8 goals in 7 games 5X5 (1.43 per 60 - 4th in the league) vs. 2.11 per 60 last year - 17th in the league.

Certainly a small sample size so far - but there are positive signs - everything, positive and negative, will probably regress (or progress) to some kind of norm over time - where the equilibrium winds up will be the key.
- StLBravesFan

Ogilvie from the Bad News Bears and his stats said it best but this would be his in hockey terms.

"But there is some good news. Two of our skaters almost managed to stay on the top line and we did hit 3 goal posts."

Coach Q - "That's the spirit!"

Patrick Kane TOI the last 3 games:
22 min
28 min
25 min

People want to point the improvement in team corsi, well maybe thats just because Q is cutting Kane loose for nearly half the game. I bet the team corsi, to your point, when Kane isnt on the ice, isnt as sparkling as most think
- hawkeytalkman

Blackhawks SAT% 5v5 of the forwards.

Total

1) Breadman
2) Toews
3) Rasmussen
4) Kruger
5) Tootoo
6) Kane
7) Panik
8) Hartman
9) Hossa
10) Motte
11) AA
12) Schamatlz
13) Hinostroza

SAT% 5v5 Behind

1) Tootoo
2) Rasmussen
3) Panarin
4) Panik
5) Toews
6) Kane
7) Hossa
8) Kruger
9) AA
10) Schmatlz
11) Hinostroza
12) Motte
13) Hartman

SAT% 5v5 Score Close

1) Hartman
2) Hossa
3) Kruger
4) Toews
5) Panarin
6) Tootoo
7) Rasmussen
8) Motte
9) Kane
10) Panik
11) Schmaltz
12) AA
13) Hinostroza

Kane isn't a possession star for the Hawks, but he does make things happen with less chances when he is on the ice.

Lot's of good suggestions how we correct the ship with our cap hell. We posibly can sign Panarin if Hossa is physically unable to play anymore after this season... why would Hossa even think of continuing playing making only a 1M next year? Unless it's PRIDE. The thing that is really disturbing with the HAWKS PLAYERS SALARY is there are 15 roster players that are making 1M or less ( Soupy 1.5). Ouch! Hard to be in the hunt for the cup with so many minimum salary players. In 2013 we had only 6 player making less than a million in winning the cup. Bottom line IMO: "you get what you payed for" ...average NHL team struggling to make the playoff.. Just like last year !

At the time, their agent said they could demand $13.8M on the open market. Obviously that's a biased opinion but at the time the cap looked like it was rising at a much faster rate. http://www.espn.com/chica...trick-kane-jonathan-toews
- matt_ahrens

Thats just BS agent talk from Brisson

Yes they hypothetically could have asked for max % of the cap deals under the cap, just like Panarin can ask for $13.8 mil but that doesnt mean he will get it or anyone will give it to him. ZERO chance toews and kane were getting anything close to $12 or $13 mil from anyone.

$10.5 was literally near the max they would have gotten elsewhere and they got it right at home from stan.

Its also reason why stamkos and kopitars deals havent even matched toews and kane. GMs see how crippling those hits can be and they got them to take less to co tinue building around them

Thats just BS agent talk from Brisson

Yes they hypothetically could have asked for max % of the cap deals under the cap, just like Panarin can ask for $13.8 mil but that doesnt mean he will get it or anyone will give it to him. ZERO chance toews and kane were getting anything close to $12 or $13 mil from anyone.

$10.5 was literally near the max they would have gotten elsewhere and they got it right at home from stan.

Its also reason why stamkos and kopitars deals havent even matched toews and kane. GMs see how crippling those hits can be and they got them to take less to co tinue building around them
- hawkeytalkman

Neither of them were going to sign with teams that could afford to hand out 12-13 mil to one of them anyway. You think either was going to go sign with a team that would be a perenial loser for the next 3-4 years?

Fair points.

Counterpoint: how much have those positive CF numbers been impacted by Q loading up and going for broke with 72-19-88-81 in the third periods of the last 3 games.

I suspect, quite a bit. And that is not sustainable.
- John Jaeckel

Fair points to you - there will be both a regression on some of the positive numbers, and a progression on some of the negative.

Don't yet know where the equilibrium will be.

Again: I'm cautiously pessimistic.

Thats just BS agent talk from Brisson

Yes they hypothetically could have asked for max % of the cap deals under the cap, just like Panarin can ask for $13.8 mil but that doesnt mean he will get it or anyone will give it to him. ZERO chance toews and kane were getting anything close to $12 or $13 mil from anyone.

$10.5 was literally near the max they would have gotten elsewhere and they got it right at home from stan.

Its also reason why stamkos and kopitars deals havent even matched toews and kane. GMs see how crippling those hits can be and they got them to take less to co tinue building around them
- hawkeytalkman

here's another from CBS before the deals were signed saying they could reach $12m. My argument is just that had they hit the open market, they would have both likely received more than what they signed for with the Blackhawks. http://www.cbssports.com/...ss-11m-on-next-contracts/

Lot's of good suggestions how we correct the ship with our cap hell. We posibly can sign Panarin if Hossa is physically unable to play anymore after this season... why would Hossa even think of continuing playing making only a 1M next year? Unless it's PRIDE. The thing that is really disturbing with the HAWKS PLAYERS SALARY is there are 15 roster players that are making 1M or less ( Soupy 1.5). Ouch! Hard to be in the hunt for the cup with so many minimum salary players. In 2013 we had only 6 player making less than a million in winning the cup. Bottom line IMO: "you get what you payed for" ...average NHL team struggling to make the playoff.. Just like last year !
- spanky

Assuming the cap doesn't miraculously explode up the next couple of years (meaning we'd be back to paying over $4 for gas), this is where the league is going: a top group making good (for hockey) money, and a minimum-wage group at the bottom of the pay scale - not much in between.

I'm looking ahead to next season's payroll and wondering how they can possibly keep Panarin. I wouldn't be surprised if he does get dealt, either at the TDL if they can't make the playoffs, or this summer. And dealing Anisimov might hurt his chances of staying. I have to think he really likes having him for a teammate.

Panarin's value gets inflated playing with Kane. If they moved him to a different line, his trade value goes down. It's possible the Hawks believe they can't sign him, so they have to maximize his trade value, meaning the PAK line doesn't get broken up.

Panarin will bring a lot in a trade, and I would think there would be a lot of teams lining up for him. I don't see it happening with any of the core players with those contracts.
- 333inthe3rd

I don't know the chances of it happening or not, but to lose him next summer, someone would still have to give him an offer sheet, probably above $6MM per - giving up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2018 in the process.

So it would have to be a team that (a) has cap space to sign him, (b) has the draft picks, and (c) be a place he'd want to go.

I don't know which teams would satisfy all 3 of those conditions - and there aren't many offer sheets offered and accepted in this league.

here's another from CBS before the deals were signed saying they could reach $12m. My argument is just that had they hit the open market, they would have both likely received more than what they signed for with the Blackhawks. http://www.cbssports.com/...ss-11m-on-next-contracts/
- matt_ahrens

But 'no hometown discount" was on their mind ? I guess loyalty only goes so far?

I'm sure Toews would LOVE to go to a hockey desert in the middle of an American desert to play for a team that may not even make the play-offs for the rest of his current contract.

He'd GLADLY waive his NMC/NTC/whatever clause he's under.
- StLBravesFan

Its called the Shane Doan retirement plan

I'm looking ahead to next season's payroll and wondering how they can possibly keep Panarin. I wouldn't be surprised if he does get dealt, either at the TDL if they can't make the playoffs, or this summer. And dealing Anisimov might hurt his chances of staying. I have to think he really likes having him for a teammate.

Panarin's value gets inflated playing with Kane. If they moved him to a different line, his trade value goes down. It's possible the Hawks believe they can't sign him, so they have to maximize his trade value, meaning the PAK line doesn't get broken up.

Panarin will bring a lot in a trade, and I would think there would be a lot of teams lining up for him. I don't see it happening with any of the core players with those contracts.
- 333inthe3rd

$4.2 million will be free up from carry forward from last season. If Panarin doesn't hit his bonuses then Campbell's $750K should be the only carried forward. That leaves about $3.5 million in extra cap space. Add back in Parin's base salary and we're at around $4.3 million as the starting point of cap space available. If the cap goes up by $2 million there should be enough. Granted, some guys like Kempny and Panik would need to be resigned, but losing UFAs like Campbell, Tootoo, Rozsival and Desjardins can all help with that (and carrying 22 players instead of 23).

If the cap doesn't go up and the team is comfortable with this move Kruger can be exposed in the expansion draft to create $3 million in cap space.

I don't know the chances of it happening or not, but to lose him next summer, someone would still have to give him an offer sheet, probably above $6MM per - giving up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2018 in the process.

So it would have to be a team that (a) has cap space to sign him, (b) has the draft picks, and (c) be a place he'd want to go.

I don't know which teams would satisfy all 3 of those conditions - and there aren't many offer sheets offered and accepted in this league.
- StLBravesFan

Im just curious to see if he gets to that point and if he gets one. If so I would not be surprised to see the first year be some inflated number to make it hard on the Hawks to match. Then lower per year after that.

Im just curious to see if he gets to that point and if he gets one. If so I would not be surprised to see the first year be some inflated number to make it hard on the Hawks to match. Then lower per year after that.
- Gerk

Front loaded or not - it's the AAV that counts in year one (just like in all the other years of a contract), not the actual amount paid.

And there's also a limit on how much the highest year can be above the lowest, I think.