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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Loss to Flames follows a pattern
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StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Oct 25 @ 2:09 PM ET
Would you trade Toews to the expansion team after their draft? Realistically best value you are going to get. Not easy to move a 10 mil contract plus they will be looking for a "star" to promote. You guys get cap relief, some really good younger(cheaper) players plus now have money to resign guys.
- Gerk


I'm sure Toews would LOVE to go to a hockey desert in the middle of an American desert to play for a team that may not even make the play-offs for the rest of his current contract.

He'd GLADLY waive his NMC/NTC/whatever clause he's under.
Hawkster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Quebec , QC
Joined: 06.13.2008

Oct 25 @ 2:12 PM ET
As long as it takes. Salary cap dumps won't free up enough cap space to reconfigure the roster. Teams will look to take advantage of Stan like they did with Frolik, Bolland, Byfuglien, Ladd, Sharp, Leddy, Shaw and Saad.

The front needs to be patient as the team comes together and the rookies continue to develop.

- DarthKane


Time will tell but winning creates expectations, guys making 10.5 millions creates expectations so not sure the brass will wait around for 2 or 3 years to see if Motte or Hartman becomes the next B. Saad. Not sure thats going to happen all the while the team keeps losing or worse misses the playoffs.

If they want to go back to the team that won 3 cups a few of the big contracts will have to be moved. Just think what could be accomplished with minus 10.5, 6 and 3 million worth of salary? Hmmmm, sign Panarin and add two players averaging 5 to 6 million.... With Kane and Keith there is your new cup contender. I know contreversial but maybe just maybe......



BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Oct 25 @ 2:15 PM ET
How much time are we talking?

We are 96 games into Toews and Kane's new contracts. We were atrocious 5 on 5 last year. We cant stop a runny nose on the PK currently and have holes all over the lineup.

How much more of a sample size is needed to point to the Toews, Kane, and Seabrook contracts as direct reasons why there are huge flaws on the roster that cant be addressed due to no cap space and prospect purging to try and get the team under the cap?

Those guys should be playing ELITE hockey regardless of the makeshift roster because that is how the Hawks cap roster is structured. Sadly only Kane looks like he is coming close to his value. Does Seabrook look like a near $7 mil dman? Nope. Does Toews look like a $10.5 player? Absolutely not. He honestly looks like a $7 mil player right now, and thats being generous

Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and we are stuck with those deals, but they individually need to step it up ESPECIALLY since their roster is thin on depth

- hawkeytalkman


I feel like I'm being Trolled.

Pretty sure its gonna take more than 6 games or 7 games (how many games into the season are they?). 7 new guys on the team, 6 of which I believe haven't played NHL games before the start of the season.

Kempny coming over from different sized ice surface.

Everything is not going to be perfect right away.

Its so god damn early. And people are talking about the end is near and poop.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Oct 25 @ 2:17 PM ET
As long as it takes. Salary cap dumps won't free up enough cap space to reconfigure the roster. Teams will look to take advantage of Stan like they did with Frolik, Bolland, Byfuglien, Ladd, Sharp, Leddy, Shaw and Saad.

The front needs to be patient as the team comes together and the rookies continue to develop.

- DarthKane


Maybe, maybe not. neither you nor I know what can/will happen one way or the other.

And you may be exactly right. As long as it takes is your preference, but it might not be that of a majority of fans or the team, sponsors, etc.

I think a lot of fans are hoping more than thinking right now about the youth movement. And maybe I'm wrong.

But, FACT, to fans, the dollars involved are discretionary. To the team and sponsors and somewhat to the players, how they perform, what kind of team they have, goes right to the bottom line and the heart of their incomes.

While some fan expectations are right in line with yours, the business dollar expectations and needs are more likely calibrated around along playoff run. In fact, I am 99% sure of that.

This may force some kind of move.

Further, if you want to talk about changing the coach (not saying you have), but look at what you say about Bowman getting bent over. Maybe someone else needs to be replaced. And I am the first to consider that these decisions and moves might not all be his. I will also give him maximum props on things like trading Morin for Panik.

But 5-6 rookies on the team was not a choice—it was a default necessity of the cap projections and commitments not working out the way they thought they would. Now it is what it is, unless they decide to act more boldly and move to fix it (somehow).
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Oct 25 @ 2:17 PM ET
Time will tell but winning creates expectations, guys making 10.5 millions creates expectations so not sure the brass will wait around for 2 or 3 years to see if Motte or Hartman becomes the next B. Saad. Not sure thats going to happen all the while the team keeps losing or worse misses the playoffs.

If they want to go back to the team that won 3 cups a few of the big contracts will have to be moved. Just think what could be accomplished with minus 10.5, 6 and 3 million worth of salary? Hmmmm, sign Panarin and add two players averaging 5 to 6 million.... With Kane and Keith there is your new cup contender. I know contreversial but maybe just maybe......




- Hawkster


At a very high level there are two choices:

1. Stick with the existing core and rookies; or
2. Make a major move to free up cap space and reconfigure the team.

I take option 1, we know we can win with this guys. Under this options the team is replacing only supporting (yet important) roles.

With option 2 comes a lot of uncertainty. For those that think Stan was fleeced in his previous salary dumps, why would this time be any different?
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Oct 25 @ 2:18 PM ET
At a very high level there are two choices:

1. Stick with the existing core and rookies; or
2. Make a major move to free up cap space and reconfigure the team.

I take option 1, we know we can win with this guys. Under this options the team is replacing only supporting (yet important) roles.

With option 2 comes a lot of uncertainty. For those that think Stan was fleeced in his previous salary dumps, why would this time be any different?

- DarthKane


No, we know we can go 3-3-1. Fact.
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Oct 25 @ 2:19 PM ET
Ok, let's take this one step further, who specifically would you have replace Crawford and Kruger?

I'm a fan of Darling, but there's no certainty he can carry the load like Crawford can. But even if he could, we'd still need a solid backup during the first couple seasons in case Darling faltered. Right now the Hawks pay around $6.6 million for their goalies. Signing Darling and a quality back-up would cost close to $6 million. Is this move worth $600K in cap space?

For Kruger, the team is already short on defensive centres who can win a faceoff. Take Kruger out of the picture and we're left with Toews. Nobody in Rockford could replace Kruger now.

- DarthKane


There is no certainty because he has not had a sustained look since the short-term stints during the Nashville series and when Crawford was injured. I think now would be the time to do a 50/50 split between he and Crawford, just to see once-and-for-all what you've got with him. Helps in deciding whether to expose to expansion, whether to give a contract, what he'd be worth in a trade/package, etc. etc. Agreed, though, on it not necessarily saving you a ton of $$. BTW, aren't the Kings in desperate need of a goalie right now?
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Oct 25 @ 2:19 PM ET
I feel like I'm being Trolled.
- BlazinMike


You're not. Lets just get that out of the way.
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues
Location: Saint Louis, MO
Joined: 01.28.2016

Oct 25 @ 2:19 PM ET
I feel like I'm being Trolled.

Pretty sure its gonna take more than 6 games or 7 games (how many games into the season are they?). 7 new guys on the team, 6 of which I believe haven't played NHL games before the start of the season.

Kempny coming over from different sized ice surface.

Everything is not going to be perfect right away.

Its so god damn early. And people are talking about the end is near and poop.

- BlazinMike


Bi-polar express schedule starting early for some this season it would appear.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Oct 25 @ 2:19 PM ET
I feel like I'm being Trolled.

Pretty sure its gonna take more than 6 games or 7 games (how many games into the season are they?). 7 new guys on the team, 6 of which I believe haven't played NHL games before the start of the season.

Kempny coming over from different sized ice surface.

Everything is not going to be perfect right away.

Its so god damn early. And people are talking about the end is near and poop.

- BlazinMike



True. It's all about fan and team tolerance as to when things need to fall in line. And that's where the disagreement seems to be. Which is fine.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Oct 25 @ 2:20 PM ET
No, we know we can go 3-3-1. Fact.
- John Jaeckel


A .500 record won't win you cups.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Oct 25 @ 2:21 PM ET
Yeah, but I was talking about Motte (both of his came off Toews' rebounds, I'm pretty sure) AND Panik's.
- John Jaeckel


I know you were talking about both - and I mentioned both - should have said more explicitly "2 assists on the 8 goals between '14' and '64'" - so 6 of the 8 goals came with no assist from Toews.

Toews' 2 assists were on one Panik goal on one Motte goal - so one of Motte's goals came off of someone else's rebound.

My point about Panik is that he is fighting for his goals and - while he certainly won't continue at a 70-goal-pace - he could continue to contribute because of the way he is scoring now.
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues
Location: Saint Louis, MO
Joined: 01.28.2016

Oct 25 @ 2:21 PM ET
A .500 record won't win you cups.
- EKB13


^Truth. You have to be 4 games over .500 at least to win a cup...well at least your playoff record does
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Oct 25 @ 2:22 PM ET
You are right. I really do have to give you credit for your level headed perspective.

I decided for myself a few seasons ago that I'm happy as long as they make it to the second round of the playoffs. For me, everything after that is gravy.

- breadbag


And that's fair. Thanks for the compliment. I just think there is not that much to disagree over—we all see the same thing—except for expectations and tolerance for mediocrity while trying to figure it out.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Oct 25 @ 2:24 PM ET
I know you were talking about both - and I mentioned both - should have said more explicitly "2 assists on the 8 goals between '14' and '64'" - so 6 of the 8 goals came with no assist from Toews.

Toews' 2 assists were on one Panik goal on one Motte goal - so one of Motte's goals came off of someone else's rebound.

My point about Panik is that he is fighting for his goals and - while he certainly won't continue at a 70-goal-pace - he could continue to contribute because of the way he is scoring now.

- StLBravesFan


I tend to agree. I tend to believe also if he plays 7 games with Kruger or Schmaltz, he probably doesn't get 6, or 5, or even 4 goals. That's sort of my point.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Oct 25 @ 2:25 PM ET
Maybe, maybe not. neither you nor I know what can/will happen one way or the other.

And you may be exactly right. As long as it takes is your preference, but it might not be that of a majority of fans or the team, sponsors, etc.

I think a lot of fans are hoping more than thinking right now about the youth movement. And maybe I'm wrong.

But, FACT, to fans, the dollars involved are discretionary. To the team and sponsors and somewhat to the players, how they perform, what kind of team they have, goes right to the bottom line and the heart of their incomes.

While some fan expectations are right in line with yours, the business dollar expectations and needs are more likely calibrated around along playoff run. In fact, I am 99% sure of that.

This may force some kind of move.

Further, if you want to talk about changing the coach (not saying you have), but look at what you say about Bowman getting bent over. Maybe someone else needs to be replaced. And I am the first to consider that these decisions and moves might not all be his. I will also give him maximum props on things like trading Morin for Panik.

But 5-6 rookies on the team was not a choice—it was a default necessity of the cap projections and commitments not working out the way they thought they would. Now it is what it is, unless they decide to act more boldly and move to fix it (somehow).

- John Jaeckel


True, nobody knows what will happen and I wasn't trying to say that I did. Just voicing my opinion and have a discussion with others that don't share my views.

I would argue that the sponsors would want Stan to keep the likes of Kane, Toews, Crawford and Keith. They are still a draw and the face of the team.

I think part of the equation is also the realistic timeline for the front office. If they're looking for immediate success (i.e. taking one season at a time), then I wouldn't be surprised to see a shake up. But if the team is taking a longer term approach (say 3-5 years) in their thinking then I'd expect them to be patient. We don't know what they're thinking but I'd guess they are somewhere in the middle of these two approaches, but leaning towards the second.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Oct 25 @ 2:29 PM ET
Frolik, Saad, Sharp, Oduya, Ladd, Leddy, Shaw, Bickell, Byfuglien, Versteeg all played crucial roles in winning 3 Cups. Bowman did great work at re-tooling the roster after 2012, but he has absolutely crippled this team's ability to win another cup with atrocious returns via trade and overpriced contract extensions for 19, 88 and 7. Something's got to give, bc this team looks closer to a lottery team than a Stanley Cup Champion.
- EnzoD


Patrick Kane is probably worth 10.5 million
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Oct 25 @ 2:29 PM ET
A .500 record won't win you cups.
- EKB13



True, but neither would a record of 7-0 after 7 games. Its a long season with a lot of hockey left to be played. While this level of play can't go on forever all this team really needs to do is make the playoffs and have things turned around by Spring.
hawkeytalkman
Joined: 01.11.2016

Oct 25 @ 2:32 PM ET
I feel like I'm being Trolled.

Pretty sure its gonna take more than 6 games or 7 games (how many games into the season are they?). 7 new guys on the team, 6 of which I believe haven't played NHL games before the start of the season.

Kempny coming over from different sized ice surface.

Everything is not going to be perfect right away.

Its so god damn early. And people are talking about the end is near and poop.

- BlazinMike


Sure, if you are just looking at this season, you can preach patience, but I was clearly dating back to the start of last season as well, when large issues started showing their head.

They have far from shown they have righted the ship since 2015 and most would argue the Hawks are beginning to die a slow death with the aging core and bloated contracts.

We can sit here an preach "give the new players time!" but its seems pretty obvious that the guys brought in are not the same caliber of player we purged out over the years in Sharp, Brouwer, Ladd, Saad, etc

At BEST, a couple of the guys like Motte and Hartman can replace Shaws absence and someone like Schmaltz can replace TT's ghostly presence
SnapitUpstairs
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: CHICAGO, IL
Joined: 02.03.2012

Oct 25 @ 2:37 PM ET
>Plenty of blame for the entire organization to share: GM, Coaches, Players
>Current product not worth paying to see -- (OK Kaner always is)
>STALE is still the word -- same schemes, same results, many of the same players in the same roles
>D pairings continue to baffle and help create many problems
>When a team can't win a 10 foot race to a puck, it's fair to question their commitment and desire
>Not sure I have seen a Hawks team stand around so much up and down the roster -- and in all situations: 5 on 5, PP, PK
>CONTENT is another word: while the entire organization can be proud, the rest of their careers, of their monumental achievement of 3 Cups, the rest of the league, and some fans, have moved on to the 2016 season
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Oct 25 @ 2:38 PM ET
Patrick Kane is probably worth 10.5 million
- fattybeef


True, but not until the season after he signed his deal. 19+88 have never been top 3 in scoring so why did they need to be the highest paid players in the NHL? Bc they were the most popular faces on a cup winning TEAM? Their individual performances (even on a stacked roster) never merited the contracts they currently have. Patrick Kane has made a case that he is worth $10.5mil, but only in the last 1.5 seasons. Toews has gone in the exact opposite direction.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Oct 25 @ 2:39 PM ET
Maybe, maybe not. neither you nor I know what can/will happen one way or the other.

And you may be exactly right. As long as it takes is your preference, but it might not be that of a majority of fans or the team, sponsors, etc.

I think a lot of fans are hoping more than thinking right now about the youth movement. And maybe I'm wrong.

But, FACT, to fans, the dollars involved are discretionary. To the team and sponsors and somewhat to the players, how they perform, what kind of team they have, goes right to the bottom line and the heart of their incomes.

While some fan expectations are right in line with yours, the business dollar expectations and needs are more likely calibrated around along playoff run. In fact, I am 99% sure of that.

This may force some kind of move.

Further, if you want to talk about changing the coach (not saying you have), but look at what you say about Bowman getting bent over. Maybe someone else needs to be replaced. And I am the first to consider that these decisions and moves might not all be his. I will also give him maximum props on things like trading Morin for Panik.

But 5-6 rookies on the team was not a choice—it was a default necessity of the cap projections and commitments not working out the way they thought they would. Now it is what it is, unless they decide to act more boldly and move to fix it (somehow).

- John Jaeckel

I just don't see who they would even like to go after. One part of me says not to deplete the roster or the already depleted farm system, but another part tells me if Toews has Hossa and a fast two-way forward, then there are two good lines that can do damage, not one. Panik and then Motte can move down and help out Kruger on line 3. Just giving an estimate and opinion.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Oct 25 @ 2:40 PM ET
True, but neither would a record of 7-0 after 7 games. Its a long season with a lot of hockey left to be played. While this level of play can't go on forever all this team really needs to do is make the playoffs and have things turned around by Spring.
- DarthKane


Granted, its a long season. However, a team is in a far batter position getting out in front of things at 7-0 then it is starting at 3-3-1. Add in the idea of the tough division the Hawks are playing in. That doesn't help things.

Yeah, I get the idea of hoping they can right the ship - and I hope the team can do that. However, from the appearance of things now, I can fully understand and empathize with the perception that fans are bringing to the board today. They are definitely right in their perspective, and it is hard to see otherwise until this team can up their game.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Oct 25 @ 2:40 PM ET
I feel like I'm being Trolled.

Pretty sure its gonna take more than 6 games or 7 games (how many games into the season are they?). 7 new guys on the team, 6 of which I believe haven't played NHL games before the start of the season.

Kempny coming over from different sized ice surface.

Everything is not going to be perfect right away.

Its so god damn early. And people are talking about the end is near and poop.

- BlazinMike


I'm cautiously pessimistic about all of this: a 3-4 record that COULD be 1-6 without outstanding play by Crawford, but could also be 6-1 with an improved PK and PP.

We know the negatives of the season so far, primarily the PK and the growing pains of watching first-year-NHLers (and first-year-pros or first-year-new worlders).

But some positive stats, too:

Through 7 games, the CF% (5X5, not score adjusted) is 52.2% - 9th in the league - certainly better than last year (50.6% and 15th) - and that's with the "kids" playing.

Again 5X5, they've scored 16 goals (2.85 per 60 minutes - 11th) vs. 2.02 per 60 minutes last year - 23rd.

They've given up only 8 goals in 7 games 5X5 (1.43 per 60 - 4th in the league) vs. 2.11 per 60 last year - 17th in the league.

Certainly a small sample size so far - but there are positive signs - everything, positive and negative, will probably regress (or progress) to some kind of norm over time - where the equilibrium winds up will be the key.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Oct 25 @ 2:41 PM ET
I tend to agree. I tend to believe also if he plays 7 games with Kruger or Schmaltz, he probably doesn't get 6, or 5, or even 4 goals. That's sort of my point.
- John Jaeckel


Maybe - wish I could read those "who's on the ice with who" charts - they give me headaches.
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