http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/16/a-competition-metric-based-on-ice-time

https://hockey-graphs.com...real-and-its-spectacular/

https://hockey-graphs.com...d-quality-of-competition/

http://nhlnumbers.com/201...of-quality-of-competition

A couple other QoC articles IF you're interested.
- j.boyd919

I have read a lot of them. They are flawed. Look up at who Reilly and Gardiner face the most, no where near the same. Not even comparable.


For the record, I'm not anti-advanced stats. I use and like them. I have just always thought the QoC argument is total BS

You're so adorable. Yes what if Tarasenko was traded for Demers, what if pigs fly and half the alien races in the universe have both male and female genitals? What do any of those things have to do with Taylor Hall? A top line forward was traded for a top line dman who plays in all situations and is quite good for a young guy. There are slightly less than 30 top caliber dmen in the NHL and Larrson has the best chance of becoming one that was actually available in trade. Not to mention the cap space allowed the Oilers to sign Lucic, who I can't stand, but will be there to babysit all of their high end toys and chip in first line points. Do the Oilers make the Hall trade without knowing they were getting Lucic as well? Probably not but with all that information Chiarelli, who I also cannot stand, made a gamble and one that quite frankly needed to be made. The Oilers got Puljujarvi in the draft and are running out of room on the wings. They needed to do this. And if Hall was so great and made his team so much better then why have they finished last or bottom 5 every year for the last decade?

I have read a lot of them. They are flawed. Look up at who Reilly and Gardiner face the most, no where near the same. Not even comparable.


For the record, I'm not anti-advanced stats. I use and like them. I have just always thought the QoC argument is total BS
- sbroads24

Oh I wasn't saying you are, I always enjoy a good debate hahaha

Oh I wasn't saying you are, I always enjoy a good debate hahaha
- j.boyd919

Me too, that's why Tanner, in all his whacky takes, is IMO great

- DDM-Coga

Seems reasonable

Thanks for joining the discussion, instead of being a pretentious douche. I'd much rather have this post.



Yes you are right, Reilly did face much better competition, via this list. Now to go further, is this only 5v5 time, or does it include PK/PP?
- j.boyd919

5v5

Wasn't trying to be a douche, not that I have to try very hard.

That's a narrow scope of only looking at shot metrics. Far more to the game. If we want to talk about research, watching the games is research. Anyone who has watched the game for a significant period of time, and has any common sense, knows that quality of competition matters. It matters a lot.
- MJL

not sure how one can dispute this at all. It matters at every level.

Shot metrics have become one of the best predicators of success in the NHL. Soooo.. there's that. And yes, watching the games is research, I watch a lot of hockey too. But when you see Reilly playing vs. Sid, Ovi, Stamkos, Hall and Gardiner vs. Malkin, Backstrom, Kucherov, McDavid... that QoC is marginal.
- j.boyd919

Shot metrics are a viable statistic when looking at a team. When using it to assess individual players, not so much. The other poster, posted actual ice times against top players. I think it's safe to assume that since Gardiner averages about 20 minutes a game, he is playing some against top players. The question is, how much.

Remember that just because things are correlated doesn't mean there is a cause and effect relationship.

We could do the same exercise with

Ristolainen vs Franson

Supposedly Franson is a top pair guy and Risto is a 3rd pair guy.

I havent done the comparables for 2015-2016....and I'm too lazy right now, but my guess would be Risto played way more mins vs elite but has a way pooptier corsi hence making Franson look like a stud.

Shot metrics are a viable statistic when looking at a team. When using it to assess individual players, not so much. The other poster, posted actual ice times against top players. I think it's safe to assume that since Gardiner averages about 20 minutes a game, he is playing some against top players. The question is, how much.
- MJL

True, Garnie posted his top 10 assignments and it was underwhelming, aside form Geno and Tyler Johnson

if anyone has ever even watched one hockey game, you know that the team winning in the later stages of a game almost always protects the lead, and the team trailing "posseses the puck" in an effort to make a comeback.

in fact, actually scoring a goal gives up possession, so, in this crazy possession crazed world, the key is not to score but hang onto the puck
- jimbro83

This is a good point. The most predictive Corsi number is score-adjusted so that only even and one goal games count towards the statistics.

That surprised me actually. I will admit you are right about this one. That makes one for you 634 for me.
- James_Tanner

5v5

Wasn't trying to be a douche, not that I have to try very hard.
- Garnie

hahahaha it just in some people blood dna i guess.

You're so adorable. Yes what if Tarasenko was traded for Demers, what if pigs fly and half the alien races in the universe have both male and female genitals? What do any of those things have to do with Taylor Hall? A top line forward was traded for a top line dman who plays in all situations and is quite good for a young guy. There are slightly less than 30 top caliber dmen in the NHL and Larrson has the best chance of becoming one that was actually available in trade. Not to mention the cap space allowed the Oilers to sign Lucic, who I can't stand, but will be there to babysit all of their high end toys and chip in first line points. Do the Oilers make the Hall trade without knowing they were getting Lucic as well? Probably not but with all that information Chiarelli, who I also cannot stand, made a gamble and one that quite frankly needed to be made. The Oilers got Puljujarvi in the draft and are running out of room on the wings. They needed to do this. And if Hall was so great and made his team so much better then why have they finished last or bottom 5 every year for the last decade?
- Dcoms

Your points aren't bad and I can see how the trade can be defended, even if I don't agree.

What I bolded though, that is why I wrote this article. That is something I feel most people think, but it isn't true or fair. We know for an absolute fact that adding the best player in hockey to the 30th place team isn't enough to elevate them to a Playoff team.

So, Taylor Hall could very easily have been the victim in this situation. Using goals and assists, not advanced stats even, its pretty clear he did his job.

Like I said, he only plays 20 minutes out of a 60 minute game and blaming him is the easiest answer - and I think the evidence shows that that is clearly happening.

But I don't believe its right or fair.

hahahaha it just in some people blood dna i guess.
- j.boyd919

Check out Franson vs Risto...do you use stats hockey analysis . com ?

Frasons top 10

Hayes
M Stone
Tom Wilson
Chimera
Nyquist
Pirri
Howden
Ferraro
Datsyuk
Fleishman

Risto's Top 10
Zetterberg
Abdelkader
Parcioretty
Larkin
Marchand
Bergeron
Connolly
Kadri
Ovechkin
Oshie

and then we wonder why blogs blow up when guys compare Hero Charts and call 1 guy barely a 5th defender and 1 guy a top pairing guy...can we guess who is called the best and who's the worst???

True, Garnie posted his top 10 assignments and it was underwhelming, aside form Geno and Tyler Johnson
- j.boyd919

It's not just who a player is playing against, it's also who he is playing with, in what situations, etc.

I wish there was a way we could switch Gardiner and Duncan Keith, and have them play in the exact set of circumstances, that each faces on their team, to test Tanner's theory that Gardiner is better than Duncan Keith. It would he hilarious.

This is a good point. The most predictive Corsi number is score-adjusted so that only even and one goal games count towards the statistics.
- James_Tanner

Are those Hero charts that you post so frequently, using score-adjusted numbers?

Check out Franson vs Risto...do you use stats hockey analysis . com ?

Frasons top 10

Hayes
M Stone
Tom Wilson
Chimera
Nyquist
Pirri
Howden
Ferraro
Datsyuk
Fleishman

Risto's Top 10
Zetterberg
Abdelkader
Parcioretty
Larkin
Marchand
Bergeron
Connolly
Kadri
Ovechkin
Oshie

and then we wonder why blogs blow up when guys compare Hero Charts and call 1 guy barely a 5th defender and 1 guy a top pairing guy...can we guess who is called the best and who's the worst???
- Garnie

Seriously, this is insane. It matters a ton.

This is hilarious ....how anyone can argue it doesn't matter who your playing against is crazy talk ...like even using a small amount of common sense one would know it matters

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/16/a-competition-metric-based-on-ice-time

https://hockey-graphs.com...real-and-its-spectacular/

https://hockey-graphs.com...d-quality-of-competition/

http://nhlnumbers.com/201...of-quality-of-competition

A couple other QoC articles IF you're interested.
- j.boyd919

From Eric Tulsky, who is an "analytics pioneer" who holds a PHD from Harvard in chemistry and has worked in nanotechnology. He is the lead anaylitics guy on the Hurricanes and as far as I know was the first "blogger" hired by the NHL.

Conclusion

While competition certainly does play a big factor in determining how a player will do in any given shift, with these competition metrics we see nobody with usage extreme enough to require a major correction factor. Using the curve for the average player on the first chart, we can calculate that Nodl’s 95th percentile usage is only harsh enough to bump an average player’s Corsi down to 49.5%, while Betts’ 13th percentile usage would be soft enough to allow an average player to post a 50.6% Corsi.

The analogous situation in zone starts would be if everyone’s offensive zone start percentage were between 48% and 52%; such small corrections are scarcely worth the effort, and a person who ignored competition when evaluating players would not be wrong by much. Quality of competition is very similar to shot quality: it plays a huge role in individual shifts/shots, but over the course of a season the differences across teams and players are small enough that it can usually be neglected.

These competition metrics provide valuable insight into what a coach thinks of a player and how he tries to use them, but in practice they do not show differences large enough to have significant impact on the player’s results.


http://nhlnumbers.com/201...of-quality-of-competition

Check out Franson vs Risto...do you use stats hockey analysis . com ?

Frasons top 10

Hayes
M Stone
Tom Wilson
Chimera
Nyquist
Pirri
Howden
Ferraro
Datsyuk
Fleishman

Risto's Top 10
Zetterberg
Abdelkader
Parcioretty
Larkin
Marchand
Bergeron
Connolly
Kadri
Ovechkin
Oshie

and then we wonder why blogs blow up when guys compare Hero Charts and call 1 guy barely a 5th defender and 1 guy a top pairing guy...can we guess who is called the best and who's the worst???
- Garnie

Yeah, I really like nicetimeonice.com because its a nice hub for a bunch of different stats websites. Corsica.hockey is good too, and hockeyviz.com

Your points aren't bad and I can see how the trade can be defended, even if I don't agree.

What I bolded though, that is why I wrote this article. That is something I feel most people think, but it isn't true or fair. We know for an absolute fact that adding the best player in hockey to the 30th place team isn't enough to elevate them to a Playoff team.

So, Taylor Hall could very easily have been the victim in this situation. Using goals and assists, not advanced stats even, its pretty clear he did his job.

Like I said, he only plays 20 minutes out of a 60 minute game and blaming him is the easiest answer - and I think the evidence shows that that is clearly happening.

But I don't believe its right or fair.
- James_Tanner

Honest, non-trolling question James:

Do you think there is any chance that your absolute-faith in the accuracy and usefulness of advanced statistics is possibly somewhat slightly misguided or over exaggerated? Would you concede the possibility that maybe their usefulness isn't quite where you (and others) proclaim it to be?

I'm not suggesting, or asking you to suggest, that they are entirely useless because I don't believe that myself. But sometimes it seems that you can be a bit too "absolute" in your proclamation of some data as inarguable and I think that's why you tend to catch a lot of flak.

Sure, the charts, graphs, etc... are great tools to have at your disposal, but that doesn't mean that the information they display can't be subject to interpretation and analysis, rather than being used as incontrovertible evidence of what the ultimate result is.

Just curious to hear your thinking on that front.

Your points aren't bad and I can see how the trade can be defended, even if I don't agree.

What I bolded though, that is why I wrote this article. That is something I feel most people think, but it isn't true or fair. We know for an absolute fact that adding the best player in hockey to the 30th place team isn't enough to elevate them to a Playoff team.

So, Taylor Hall could very easily have been the victim in this situation. Using goals and assists, not advanced stats even, its pretty clear he did his job.

Like I said, he only plays 20 minutes out of a 60 minute game and blaming him is the easiest answer - and I think the evidence shows that that is clearly happening.

But I don't believe its right or fair.
- James_Tanner

Exactly why a kid like Auston Matthews, who looks to be a great talent, won't help the Leafs (or any other bad team) become an instant playoff team. It's the culmination of acquired talent and team balance that wins games in the end.

Taylor Hall is not a "victim" he's a damn good young player who the Oilers needed to trade to change the balance of their team in order to move to the next level.

I have read a lot of them. They are flawed. Look up at who Reilly and Gardiner face the most, no where near the same. Not even comparable.


For the record, I'm not anti-advanced stats. I use and like them. I have just always thought the QoC argument is total BS
- sbroads24

But you THINK its BS. You have a predetermined opinion you are not willing to change.

It's proven. The study is from 2012 and many, many people have replicated it. Almost no players face extreme competition to the point where you have to adjust for it in the analysis of one player vs another.

Despite your examples (and I swear, the next time someone accuses me of cherry picking....) over the course of the season, they faced a minute tenth of a percentage or so difference in the CF% of their competition.