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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Unsolved Mysteries: Taylor Hall and the Breakdown of Logic & Common Sense
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Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:45 AM ET

- jimbro83


and not to take a shot at Schneider...but calling him the best in the world but he plays in front of a totally defensive team

last in shots for
8th in shots against .8/gm out of 1st.

if this isn't a defensive team...I don't know what is.

Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:46 AM ET
K. Bye.
- j.boyd919



cheers
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 9:46 AM ET
So where is Gardiner's ice time going? Who is he playing against?

So, you ONLY posted 1 player from the opposing teams, who is Gardiner playing? Malkin, Toews/Hossa, Backstrom or Kuzy, Oshie, Kucherov, etc. etc. etc. Every team has more than one good player, so spreading the talent is going to happen. Also, all you did was post TOI, which doesn't say much. I'd like to see how Reilly/Gardiner's corsi is comparing those players you mentioned, vs. their other competition, because it's going to be small. Per Hockey Graphs...

But here’s the key thing: While it matters if a player is facing Sidney Crosby instead of John Scott at any given moment, the range of competition that a player faces over the course of a season is EXTREMELY SMALL. The gap between the players facing the hardest competition and those facing the weakest competition is the same as facing an average player at most like 4 shot attempts per 60. In other words, the guy with the toughest competition in the league will face an average opponent who is +2 corsi/60, while the guy facing the weakest will face an average opponent who is -2 corsi/60. And nearly all players won’t be in these extremes – most will be within -1 corsi/60 and +1 corsi/60. And as you might expect the gap between opponents who are +1 shot attempts per 60 and those -1 is practically nothing.

https://hockey-graphs.com...to-maple-leafs-d-edition/

A whole article on how QoC marginally impacts players, in case you're interested.

- j.boyd919



That's a narrow scope of only looking at shot metrics. Far more to the game. If we want to talk about research, watching the games is research. Anyone who has watched the game for a significant period of time, and has any common sense, knows that quality of competition matters. It matters a lot.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
Well for one, while Rielly played that much against Crosby, Gardiner faced Malkin for the same amount of time. He faced Hall instead of McDavid. Krejci against Bergeron. I am telling you, it makes no difference.

If you want to think I'm an idiot, go ahead. There are literally tons of research papers, studies, blogs, and arguments about it online. There are also people who'll patiently explain it to you.

Don't take my word for anything. Go do your own research.

- James_Tanner



jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
Well for one, while Rielly played that much against Crosby, Gardiner faced Malkin for the same amount of time. He faced Hall instead of McDavid. Krejci against Bergeron. I am telling you, it makes no difference.

If you want to think I'm an idiot, go ahead. There are literally tons of research papers, studies, blogs, and arguments about it online. There are also people who'll patiently explain it to you.

Don't take my word for anything. Go do your own research.

- James_Tanner


pretty sure all of it is written by some guy named James Tanner
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
whats the summary of the comments? Taylor Hall has a horse face and Stinks?
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
K. Bye.
- j.boyd919


Welcome to my life.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
They had 2 30 goal scorers and just added one of the top 5 or so best even-strength scorers in the league.
- James_Tanner



so....they are still the most defensive team in the league..the least amount of shots for and the least amount of shots against.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:48 AM ET
That's a narrow scope of only looking at shot metrics. Far more to the game. If we want to talk about research, watching the games is research. Anyone who has watched the game for a significant period of time, and has any common sense, knows that quality of competition matters. It matters a lot.
- MJL



I think ten scarecrows legitimately died when you wrote this.

#strawman4lifebro
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 9:48 AM ET
Is there a possibility that Taylor Hall is not interested in playing in the World Cup?
smellmyfinger
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.28.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:49 AM ET
They had 2 30 goal scorers and just added one of the top 5 or so best even-strength scorers in the league.
- James_Tanner



Even if all 3 score 30 goals this year that's only 90. They get zero offensive pressure from their defensemen. You'd have to believe that Zajac will improve, Blandisi and Boucher will both hit their potential and Bennett doesn't get injured for them to improve. Basically everything would have to break right for the Devils to even be an average offensive team.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
I think ten scarecrows legitimately died when you wrote this.

#strawman4lifebro

- James_Tanner



LOL, you seriously crack me up James. The most you can learn about Hockey, is from actually watching the game!
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Sep 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
pretty sure all of it is written by some guy named James Tanner
- jimbro83


Come on, Jim. You know damn well that QoC doesn't matter!! If it did, every coach in the league (you know, the best coaches in the world) would agonize over trying to match their best defensive players against the other teams best offensive players while trying to get their stars away from the best defenders!

....oh, wait a minute!! Nevermind.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
That's a narrow scope of only looking at shot metrics. Far more to the game. If we want to talk about research, watching the games is research. Anyone who has watched the game for a significant period of time, and has any common sense, knows that quality of competition matters. It matters a lot.
- MJL


Shot metrics have become one of the best predicators of success in the NHL. Soooo.. there's that. And yes, watching the games is research, I watch a lot of hockey too. But when you see Reilly playing vs. Sid, Ovi, Stamkos, Hall and Gardiner vs. Malkin, Backstrom, Kucherov, McDavid... that QoC is marginal.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
so....they are still the most defensive team in the league..the least amount of shots for and the least amount of shots against.
- Garnie


That surprised me actually. I will admit you are right about this one. That makes one for you 634 for me.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
Is there a possibility that Taylor Hall is not interested in playing in the World Cup?
- MJL


not out of the question, if he feels that he has been shunned by HockeyCanada, he might just want to concentrate on the Devils.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:51 AM ET
Welcome to my life.
- James_Tanner


hahahah I know, I regularly visit your blogs because of the gongshow that is the comments section.
smellmyfinger
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.28.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:51 AM ET
whats the summary of the comments? Taylor Hall has a horse face and Stinks?
- DDM-Coga



Kicks puppies and spits on children too. Also as soon as he was traded to the Devils Newarks economy regressed and crime rate shot up out of control. NJ already misses Larssons calming influence.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 14 @ 9:51 AM ET
So where is Gardiner's ice time going? Who is he playing against?

So, you ONLY posted 1 player from the opposing teams, who is Gardiner playing? Malkin, Toews/Hossa, Backstrom or Kuzy, Oshie, Kucherov, etc. etc. etc. Every team has more than one good player, so spreading the talent is going to happen. Also, all you did was post TOI, which doesn't say much. I'd like to see how Reilly/Gardiner's corsi is comparing those players you mentioned, vs. their other competition, because it's going to be small. Per Hockey Graphs...

But here’s the key thing: While it matters if a player is facing Sidney Crosby instead of John Scott at any given moment, the range of competition that a player faces over the course of a season is EXTREMELY SMALL. The gap between the players facing the hardest competition and those facing the weakest competition is the same as facing an average player at most like 4 shot attempts per 60. In other words, the guy with the toughest competition in the league will face an average opponent who is +2 corsi/60, while the guy facing the weakest will face an average opponent who is -2 corsi/60. And nearly all players won’t be in these extremes – most will be within -1 corsi/60 and +1 corsi/60. And as you might expect the gap between opponents who are +1 shot attempts per 60 and those -1 is practically nothing.

https://hockey-graphs.com...to-maple-leafs-d-edition/

A whole article on how QoC marginally impacts players, in case you're interested.

- j.boyd919

And they are wrong IMO.

Advanced stat guys ALWAYS say how the league is 5% elite or high level players, and 95% relatively the same. SO again, how does one guy, getting 80% of the minutes against the top 5%, not get effected differently than a guy that rarely faces that top 5%. It's ludicrous, and borderline dumb to say otherwise **IMO**
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:52 AM ET
Come on, Jim. You know damn well that QoC doesn't matter!! If it did, every coach in the league (you know, the best coaches in the world) would agonize over trying to match their best defensive players against the other teams best offensive players while trying to get their stars away from the best defenders!

....oh, wait a minute!! Nevermind.

- Tonybere



This is a good point, and probably the reason why "qoc doesn't matter" is controversial. It's counterintuitive, but just because you can get a good matchup individually a lot of the time, it doesn't mean that can happen long term.

This is why teams are splitting up star players and trying to make 3 good lines - so they can get the kind of matchup that is very rare.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Sep 14 @ 9:53 AM ET
I don't need to...just use common sense

You think Drew Doughty plays against the same QOC as lets say Dillon from the Sharks???? Not a chance so comparing #'s is a total waste of time...same as comparing Rielly to Gardiner...it didnt even come close to evening out over 82 games...I can't change your mind and I don't want to, you believe what you want.

Gardiner > Duncan Keith

- Garnie



...that a joke?
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Sep 14 @ 9:53 AM ET
whats the summary of the comments? Taylor Hall has a horse face and Stinks?
- DDM-Coga

Sakic is a trash GM, Duchene has an attitude problem, the Avs stink, and my wife left me.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 14 @ 9:53 AM ET
Well for one, while Rielly played that much against Crosby, Gardiner faced Malkin for the same amount of time. He faced Hall instead of McDavid. Krejci against Bergeron. I am telling you, it makes no difference.

If you want to think I'm an idiot, go ahead. There are literally tons of research papers, studies, blogs, and arguments about it online. There are also people who'll patiently explain it to you.

Don't take my word for anything. Go do your own research.

- James_Tanner

A. Bergeron>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Krecji MCDavid>>Hall, Crosby>>Malkin. And you forgot the teams that don't have 1A,1B centers

B. I'm not calling you an idiot

C. I'm saying the research is flawed at best.
NugentHallberle
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Saskatoon, SK
Joined: 10.17.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:53 AM ET
The funny part is that I purposely set out to respond to you in the same way you respond to others.
- Aetherial

jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:55 AM ET
Come on, Jim. You know damn well that QoC doesn't matter!! If it did, every coach in the league (you know, the best coaches in the world) would agonize over trying to match their best defensive players against the other teams best offensive players while trying to get their stars away from the best defenders!

....oh, wait a minute!! Nevermind.

- Tonybere


if anyone has ever even watched one hockey game, you know that the team winning in the later stages of a game almost always protects the lead, and the team trailing "posseses the puck" in an effort to make a comeback.

in fact, actually scoring a goal gives up possession, so, in this crazy possession crazed world, the key is not to score but hang onto the puck
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