Which flavor do you recommend?
- Leafsandbolts

They were the lowest scoring team in the NHL last year?

Dallas 265 goals
NJ 182 goals

I don't think that's assuming is it?
- Garnie

Tanner: finds stat he likes, shows Taylor hall is ranked 9th in league by certain metric.

Writes blog on that metric, makes statement "Taylor hall is top ten forward by any measurement"

Gives one measurement, belittles people who bring up error, calls them uneducated.

Crazy twist : Tanner still employed
- jackzack87

Your little game is annoying. It's like watching Fox News trying to deal with a scientist. Have fun under your bridge bud.

QoC doesn't matter of the course of an 82 game season. Maybe in a 7 game playoff series where line matching is closely monitored, then yes, but not over the course of 82 games.
- j.boyd919

*coughbullpoopcough*

if your team is always losing, you will always "drive possession" in the 3rd period of a game because the team that is winning will inevitably fall back into a defensive shell

possession stats when you have been in the league 6 years and have yet to make the playoffs mean absolute squat
- jimbro83

This is the exact attitude that cause people to write Leave Taylor Alone articles that are 3000 words long in the middle of the night.

*coughbullpoopcough*
- Garnie

Care to elaborate, or just say bullpoop?

James Tanner: Unsolved Mysteries: Taylor Hall and the Breakdown of Logic & Common Sense
Plagued by the six straight losing season to start his NHL career, Taylor Hall has been diagnosed by Dr. Oz as having loseristis and now no one will have anything to do with him. Except for me, Phil Collins and the State of New Jersey.
- James_Tanner

you get a lot of sh!t thrown at you from the fans in the threads

I'd like to take a second to point out this is a very good blog

This is the exact attitude that cause people to write Leave Taylor Alone articles that are 3000 words long in the middle of the night.
- James_Tanner

I'll take full responsibility for you being a nutjob.

I don't have problem taking the credit.

OH because it's from a guy who constantly says I cherry pick stats, so I thought it not worth my time. Besides, I've pointed out dozens of time that they essentially faced the same competition because the CF % of their opponents is roughly the same.

Clearly Rielly was tasked with facing the other teams supposed best player - which makes sense since Rielly and Hunwick were the Leafs top line. But that doesn't change the fact that in the NHL there isn't a huge gap between players overall and once you look at the entire seasons, they played the same comp.

Teams have more than one good player. Also, I've read the studies that argue convincingly that QOC doensn't have very much, if any impact and that a player playing at a certain comp. level is unlikely to see much difference.

The guys posting that stuff frequently ignore anything even slightly counter-intuitive and say things like " if you can't see that qoc matters, you're an idiot."

Furthermore, these people have their mind made up and when I've tried to make these points they were just snotty and uninterested in thinking about the problem and clearly only interested in "gotchas" so why bother?
- James_Tanner

I get what you are saying, but If the numbers he posted are correct, I can't in any world imagine that one guy playing against Crosby for 30 min, while the other plays against him for 5, doesn't severely effect both in terms of possession.

Reilly played against all the possession "drivers" a ton more than Gardiner. In fact, I bet those numbers (again, if correct) shock you even a little.

Like you and others have said, the top 5% of the league are difference makers, the other 95% are all pretty close. Reilly is facing that 5% way more.

See, people keep saying this, yet others provide examples of how insane that theory is.

Look at Tanner's last blog

vs. crosby
reilly 29:19
Gardiner 6:13

vs. ovechkin
reilly 32:59
Gardiner 3:12

vs. beregon
reilly 50:00
Gardiner 11:02

vs. stamkos
reilly 46:52
Gardiner 11:19

vs. giroux
reilly 22:14
Gardiner 5:15

vs. tavares
reilly 40:40
Gardiner 6:57

vs. pacioretty
reilly 24:23
Gardiner 3:44

vs. barkov
reilly 41:06
Gardiner 8:56

vs. mackinnon
reilly 24:13
Gardiner 3:26

vs. pavelski
reilly 20:51
Gardiner 5:10

vs. seguin
reilly 23:20
Gardiner 5:18

vs. sedin
reilly 19:41
Gardiner 2:35

vs. kopitar
reilly 19:45
Gardiner 4:08

vs. parise
reilly 22:19
Gardiner 4:13

vs. getzlaf
reilly 22:42
Gardiner 3:27

vs. tarasenko
reilly 22:58
Gardiner 4:37

vs. p.kane
reilly 15:47
Gardiner 3:28

How could you legitimately look at that and say it doesn't matter?
- sbroads24

this is a good post

Just saying doesn't make it true, but in this case it happens to be true. 5v5 is the standard for evaluating players in the statistical NHL community. That is a fact. You are free to check it out and get back to me.

There is no burden of proof here, I am a part of that community, I would know.

And plus/minus being bad is not my opinion. It is the consensus opinion of a community made up of millions of people.

Again, the attempts to discredit me regardless of what is written border on pathetic. Face it, you're no match for me and you're way out of your league.
- James_Tanner

James how does reprinting Hero charts, or parroting the conclusions that other people have come to, in their research make you part of the analytics community? Everyone one of us here, that posts on analytics does the same thing. Does that make up all part of the community?

They were the lowest scoring team in the NHL last year?

Dallas 265 goals
NJ 182 goals

I don't think that's assuming is it?
- Garnie

this is also a good post

when you go into the 3rd period trailing 7-2, but, possess the puck the entire 3rd period and end up losing 7-4, OOOOH BABY WHAT A GREAT NIGHT

They were the lowest scoring team in the NHL last year?

Dallas 265 goals
NJ 182 goals

I don't think that's assuming is it?
- Garnie

They had 2 30 goal scorers and just added one of the top 5 or so best even-strength scorers in the league.

See, people keep saying this, yet others provide examples of how insane that theory is.

Look at Tanner's last blog

vs. crosby
reilly 29:19
Gardiner 6:13

vs. ovechkin
reilly 32:59
Gardiner 3:12

vs. beregon
reilly 50:00
Gardiner 11:02

vs. stamkos
reilly 46:52
Gardiner 11:19

vs. giroux
reilly 22:14
Gardiner 5:15

vs. tavares
reilly 40:40
Gardiner 6:57

vs. pacioretty
reilly 24:23
Gardiner 3:44

vs. barkov
reilly 41:06
Gardiner 8:56

vs. mackinnon
reilly 24:13
Gardiner 3:26

vs. pavelski
reilly 20:51
Gardiner 5:10

vs. seguin
reilly 23:20
Gardiner 5:18

vs. sedin
reilly 19:41
Gardiner 2:35

vs. kopitar
reilly 19:45
Gardiner 4:08

vs. parise
reilly 22:19
Gardiner 4:13

vs. getzlaf
reilly 22:42
Gardiner 3:27

vs. tarasenko
reilly 22:58
Gardiner 4:37

vs. p.kane
reilly 15:47
Gardiner 3:28

How could you legitimately look at that and say it doesn't matter?
- sbroads24

Hahahahahahah.....I LOVE it. Now, to watch the back-peddling, lame reasoning from james...IF...he even bothers to try to defent such OVERWHELMING numbers.

That is incredible. Gardiner's +/-, Corsi, any metric you want must be MILES ahead of Reilly considering these fantastic numbers!!!!!

you get a lot of sh!t thrown at you from the fans in the threads

I'd like to take a second to point out this is a very good blog
- homiedclown

Hey thanks.

No of course not. But in this case, do ten minutes of research, or stop acting like a sarcastic jerk and ask. Trust me, it is true. Just like most of the things I print.
- James_Tanner

So bloggers on this site are allowed to call people voicing their opinions jerks? Wow...stay classy Tanner

See, people keep saying this, yet others provide examples of how insane that theory is.

Look at Tanner's last blog

vs. crosby
reilly 29:19
Gardiner 6:13

vs. ovechkin
reilly 32:59
Gardiner 3:12

vs. beregon
reilly 50:00
Gardiner 11:02

vs. stamkos
reilly 46:52
Gardiner 11:19

vs. giroux
reilly 22:14
Gardiner 5:15

vs. tavares
reilly 40:40
Gardiner 6:57

vs. pacioretty
reilly 24:23
Gardiner 3:44

vs. barkov
reilly 41:06
Gardiner 8:56

vs. mackinnon
reilly 24:13
Gardiner 3:26

vs. pavelski
reilly 20:51
Gardiner 5:10

vs. seguin
reilly 23:20
Gardiner 5:18

vs. sedin
reilly 19:41
Gardiner 2:35

vs. kopitar
reilly 19:45
Gardiner 4:08

vs. parise
reilly 22:19
Gardiner 4:13

vs. getzlaf
reilly 22:42
Gardiner 3:27

vs. tarasenko
reilly 22:58
Gardiner 4:37

vs. p.kane
reilly 15:47
Gardiner 3:28

How could you legitimately look at that and say it doesn't matter?
- sbroads24

So where is Gardiner's ice time going? Who is he playing against?

So, you ONLY posted 1 player from the opposing teams, who is Gardiner playing? Malkin, Toews/Hossa, Backstrom or Kuzy, Oshie, Kucherov, etc. etc. etc. Every team has more than one good player, so spreading the talent is going to happen. Also, all you did was post TOI, which doesn't say much. I'd like to see how Reilly/Gardiner's corsi is comparing those players you mentioned, vs. their other competition, because it's going to be small. Per Hockey Graphs...

But here’s the key thing: While it matters if a player is facing Sidney Crosby instead of John Scott at any given moment, the range of competition that a player faces over the course of a season is EXTREMELY SMALL. The gap between the players facing the hardest competition and those facing the weakest competition is the same as facing an average player at most like 4 shot attempts per 60. In other words, the guy with the toughest competition in the league will face an average opponent who is +2 corsi/60, while the guy facing the weakest will face an average opponent who is -2 corsi/60. And nearly all players won’t be in these extremes – most will be within -1 corsi/60 and +1 corsi/60. And as you might expect the gap between opponents who are +1 shot attempts per 60 and those -1 is practically nothing.

https://hockey-graphs.com...to-maple-leafs-d-edition/

A whole article on how QoC marginally impacts players, in case you're interested.

Care to elaborate, or just say bullpoop?
- j.boyd919

I don't need to...just use common sense

You think Drew Doughty plays against the same QOC as lets say Dillon from the Sharks???? Not a chance so comparing #'s is a total waste of time...same as comparing Rielly to Gardiner...it didnt even come close to evening out over 82 games...I can't change your mind and I don't want to, you believe what you want.

Gardiner > Duncan Keith

Hahahahahahah.....I LOVE it. Now, to watch the back-peddling, lame reasoning from james...IF...he even bothers to try to defent such OVERWHELMING numbers.

That is incredible. Gardiner's +/-, Corsi, any metric you want must be MILES ahead of Reilly considering these fantastic numbers!!!!!



- hawk35

He posted TOI vs one player from each team, forgetting every other teams 2nd best players (which on some teams, are also elite.)... that says nothing.

- j.boyd919

Glad to see you prefer more than one flavor.

For example, the New Jersey Devils were coached by Jaques Lemaire and played boring hockey in the 90s, so even though its 20 years later, people still assume they can't score.
- James_Tanner

No he fact that they finished 30th in scoring PROVES they can't score.....or is the the goals for stat not relevant when assessing whether or not a team can score....lol

I don't need to...just use common sense

You think Drew Doughty plays against the same QOC as lets say Dillon from the Sharks???? Not a chance so comparing #'s is a total waste of time...same as comparing Rielly to Gardiner...it didnt even come close to evening out over 82 games...I can't change your mind and I don't want to, you believe what you want.

Gardiner > Duncan Keith
- Garnie

Gardiner > anyone NOT named OEL....

I don't need to...just use common sense

You think Drew Doughty plays against the same QOC as lets say Dillon from the Sharks???? Not a chance so comparing #'s is a total waste of time...same as comparing Rielly to Gardiner...it didnt even come close to evening out over 82 games...I can't change your mind and I don't want to, you believe what you want.

Gardiner > Duncan Keith
- Garnie

K. Bye.

I get what you are saying, but If the numbers he posted are correct, I can't in any world imagine that one guy playing against Crosby for 30 min, while the other plays against him for 5, doesn't severely effect both in terms of possession.

Reilly played against all the possession "drivers" a ton more than Gardiner. In fact, I bet those numbers (again, if correct) shock you even a little.

Like you and others have said, the top 5% of the league are difference makers, the other 95% are all pretty close. Reilly is facing that 5% way more.
- sbroads24

Well for one, while Rielly played that much against Crosby, Gardiner faced Malkin for the same amount of time. He faced Hall instead of McDavid. Krejci against Bergeron. I am telling you, it makes no difference.

If you want to think I'm an idiot, go ahead. There are literally tons of research papers, studies, blogs, and arguments about it online. There are also people who'll patiently explain it to you.

Don't take my word for anything. Go do your own research.