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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Unsolved Mysteries: Taylor Hall and the Breakdown of Logic & Common Sense
Author Message
Tonybere
New York Rangers
Location: ON
Joined: 02.04.2016

Sep 14 @ 8:58 AM ET
It clearly stats about 3 or 5 times that all the stats are 5v5.

Also, plus minus does not tell you what a players defensive skills are. It isn't even a barometer. If you're gonna take this kind of tone, maybe be correct about something.

- James_Tanner


This comment could be directed right back at you, James.
Here's the thing, you don't know Taylor Hall. You even stated as much in the blog. So, if he racks up points like almost nobody else (which he does) and STILL doesn't even get considered for the team, maybe there is another factor that you aren't aware of. Do you think no one connected to Team Canada has ever spoken with him? Maybe he does have an attitude problem. Maybe he doesn't make an effort to gel with his teammates. These are just examples because, I don't know. BUT NEITHER DO YOU. So, think about that before slandering half the league. And yes, I know it's liable. But, liabling didn't sound right.
Also, consider that Team Canada doesn't need absolutely every player to be the best scorer. A lot of the game is spent trying to prevent the other team from scoring, you know. Something the Hall-led Oilers were not very good at.

Now please, tell me how unintelligent I am and how the stats tell you everything you need to know.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 14 @ 9:00 AM ET
Scoring on the power play is automatic 20% of the time.
jackzack87
New York Islanders
Joined: 06.26.2010

Sep 14 @ 9:03 AM ET
Tanner: finds stat he likes, shows Taylor hall is ranked 9th in league by certain metric.

Writes blog on that metric, makes statement "Taylor hall is top ten forward by any measurement"

Gives one measurement, belittles people who bring up error, calls them uneducated.

Crazy twist : Tanner still employed
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:04 AM ET
Tanner just saying something doesn't make it the gold standard. It makes it your opinion. The rest of the stats exist for a reason, because they are part of the big picture. The bolded statements are hyperbole, and just because you don't like +/- doesn't make it a bad measuring stick.
The burden of proof is on the blogger, writer, author, etc. It is not on the public to go on a witch hunt to find the fallacies you created, and to assume your readership should go do the legwork you avoided is way off base.

The "waste of everyones time" sure got you a buttload of blog hits at the right time, why are we overlooking it now?

- jackzack87


+/- is a pretty terrible measuring stick...
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 14 @ 9:06 AM ET
+/- is a pretty terrible measuring stick...
- j.boyd919

Most individual stats are terrible measuring sticks.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:07 AM ET
He doesn't believe Quality of Competition matters.
- Aetherial


QoC doesn't matter of the course of an 82 game season. Maybe in a 7 game playoff series where line matching is closely monitored, then yes, but not over the course of 82 games.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:08 AM ET
Most individual stats are terrible measuring sticks.
- sbroads24


I prefer using twizzlers to measure stuff.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 14 @ 9:10 AM ET
QoC doesn't matter of the course of an 82 game season. Maybe in a 7 game playoff series where line matching is closely monitored, then yes, but not over the course of 82 games.
- j.boyd919

See, people keep saying this, yet others provide examples of how insane that theory is.

Look at Tanner's last blog

vs. crosby
reilly 29:19
Gardiner 6:13

vs. ovechkin
reilly 32:59
Gardiner 3:12

vs. beregon
reilly 50:00
Gardiner 11:02

vs. stamkos
reilly 46:52
Gardiner 11:19

vs. giroux
reilly 22:14
Gardiner 5:15

vs. tavares
reilly 40:40
Gardiner 6:57

vs. pacioretty
reilly 24:23
Gardiner 3:44

vs. barkov
reilly 41:06
Gardiner 8:56

vs. mackinnon
reilly 24:13
Gardiner 3:26

vs. pavelski
reilly 20:51
Gardiner 5:10

vs. seguin
reilly 23:20
Gardiner 5:18

vs. sedin
reilly 19:41
Gardiner 2:35

vs. kopitar
reilly 19:45
Gardiner 4:08

vs. parise
reilly 22:19
Gardiner 4:13

vs. getzlaf
reilly 22:42
Gardiner 3:27

vs. tarasenko
reilly 22:58
Gardiner 4:37

vs. p.kane
reilly 15:47
Gardiner 3:28

How could you legitimately look at that and say it doesn't matter?
Isles_since_6
New York Islanders
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 07.13.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:11 AM ET
No of course not. But in this case, do ten minutes of research, or stop acting like a sarcastic jerk and ask. Trust me, it is true. Just like most of the things I print.
- James_Tanner


I love this. every time someone questions or disagrees with Tanner, he takes the tone of an angry teenager and then demands they stop acting like a jerk.

Isles_since_6
New York Islanders
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 07.13.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:13 AM ET
Tanner: finds stat he likes, shows Taylor hall is ranked 9th in league by certain metric.

Writes blog on that metric, makes statement "Taylor hall is top ten forward by any measurement"

Gives one measurement, belittles people who bring up error, calls them uneducated.

Crazy twist : Tanner still employed

- jackzack87

hawkeytalkman
Joined: 01.11.2016

Sep 14 @ 9:13 AM ET
Quality of competition, individual coverage and play away from the puck, and play recognition are metrics that Tanners gong banging fancy stats can't ever and will never highlight and its also why people who can use their eyeballs to observe these points laugh at the fact that Tanner is labeling Taylor Hall a top 10 forward overall in the NHL

Is Taylor Hall a good player when he has the puck on his stick? Sure, and being a career top line deployment player should almost almost guarantee that you should be a positive corsi and possession player by the nature of your deployment of starts, especially at home with last change (offensive zone starts against weaker defense matchups). Yet Tanner will keep hanging his hat on mostly metrics that relates to shots and rate of scoring per minutes played

Problem is Taylor has never been anything more than average away from the puck and nothing about his game other than his speed and goal scoring ability screams that he is a top 10 forward in the NHL, and even then, most people are still waiting on Tanners prediction of Hall's goal scoring breakout to happen, which, SURPRISE, it hasnt
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Sep 14 @ 9:16 AM ET
Quality of competition, individual coverage and play away from the puck, and play recognition are metrics that Tanners gong banging fancy stats can't ever and will never highlight and its also why people who can use their eyeballs to observe these points laugh at the fact that Tanner is labeling Taylor Hall a top 10 forward overall in the NHL

Is Taylor Hall a good player when he has the puck on his stick? Sure, and being a career top line deployment player should almost almost guarantee that you should be a positive corsi and possession player by the nature of your deployment of starts, especially at home with last change (offensive zone starts against weaker defense matchups). Yet Tanner will keep hanging his hat on mostly metrics that relates to shots and rate of scoring per minutes played

Problem is Taylor has never been anything more than average away from the puck and nothing about his game other than his speed and goal scoring ability screams that he is a top 10 forward in the NHL, and even then, most people are still waiting on Tanners prediction of Hall's goal scoring breakout to happen, which, SURPRISE, it hasnt

- hawkeytalkman

He's probably a top 10 winger. I mean, the dude was the 1st pick and has produced in a tire fire of an organization.

Despite what Tanner might say, he is no Patrick Kane
Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Sep 14 @ 9:18 AM ET
question or all you peeps who live in the Toronto area. headed up that way soon.

Are their any goalie stores that sell the Brian's brand? If so can you help a brother out with the name of the store?

- rinaldo


Just Hockey sells Brian's goalie equipment. Check their website since it shows Brian's and locations.
Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Sep 14 @ 9:18 AM ET
I prefer using twizzlers to measure stuff.
- j.boyd919


Which flavor do you recommend?
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:19 AM ET
I have some advice for you.

If you want to base a career on drawing conclusions from something that is obviously, and seriously, flawed, then be prepared for other, more intelligent, people to point out the problems with your argument.

You don't like +/-? fine.

I think Corsi and Fenwick can't be used to rank players in any meaningful way and, by extension, any stats or charts based on those calculations are also flawed. As evidence, I will pull up any given year and rank players by any Corsi or Fenwick stat. Then I will point out how ridiculous the "rankings" are and question every conclusion you make about players based on those rankings.

- Aetherial


Whatever, you're wrong but have no interest in learning. Not my problem.
NEONDOUBLEDION
Anaheim Ducks
Location: EDMONTON, AB
Joined: 02.04.2015

Sep 14 @ 9:21 AM ET
Whatever, you're wrong but have no interest in learning. Not my problem.
- James_Tanner


It is embarrassing how you talk to your readers. It is a slap in the face to all of us that you still have a job there.
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:22 AM ET
Just Hockey sells Brian's goalie equipment. Check their website since it shows Brian's and locations.
- Leafsandbolts

appreciate it
hawkeytalkman
Joined: 01.11.2016

Sep 14 @ 9:24 AM ET
He's probably a top 10 winger. I mean, the dude was the 1st pick and has produced in a tire fire of an organization.

Despite what Tanner might say, he is no Patrick Kane

- sbroads24


I dont think most would disagree with the top 10 winger assessment, but Tanner blatantly calling him a top 10 forward, throwing in all the elite centers into consideration as well, is just as laughable as it gets

nobody in an NHL front office is taking Taylor Hall over Kopitar, Giroux, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Barkov, McDavid, Bergeron, Tavares, Seguin, Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Stamkos, Kuznetsov, Backstrom from a player production and quality contribution standpoint, cap hits aside. Can you make an argument of at $6 mil is he a better value than some other guys? Yes, but thats not what Tanner was arguing before he slithers into that defense

and thats just centers
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Sep 14 @ 9:24 AM ET
Just Hockey sells Brian's goalie equipment. Check their website since it shows Brian's and locations.
- Leafsandbolts

sadly the on line store doesn't have much
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:24 AM ET
if your team is always losing, you will always "drive possession" in the 3rd period of a game because the team that is winning will inevitably fall back into a defensive shell

possession stats when you have been in the league 6 years and have yet to make the playoffs mean absolute squat
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:26 AM ET
Tanner, how come you didn't respond to the previous blog about Reilly playing on average of 5x the minutes that Gardiner faced against some of the premier players in the league? Not being a douche, interested in your response.
- sbroads24



OH because it's from a guy who constantly says I cherry pick stats, so I thought it not worth my time. Besides, I've pointed out dozens of time that they essentially faced the same competition because the CF % of their opponents is roughly the same.

Clearly Rielly was tasked with facing the other teams supposed best player - which makes sense since Rielly and Hunwick were the Leafs top line. But that doesn't change the fact that in the NHL there isn't a huge gap between players overall and once you look at the entire seasons, they played the same comp.

Teams have more than one good player. Also, I've read the studies that argue convincingly that QOC doensn't have very much, if any impact and that a player playing at a certain comp. level is unlikely to see much difference.

The guys posting that stuff frequently ignore anything even slightly counter-intuitive and say things like " if you can't see that qoc matters, you're an idiot."

Furthermore, these people have their mind made up and when I've tried to make these points they were just snotty and uninterested in thinking about the problem and clearly only interested in "gotchas" so why bother?

Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Sep 14 @ 9:28 AM ET
question or all you peeps who live in the Toronto area. headed up that way soon.

Are their any goalie stores that sell the Brian's brand? If so can you help a brother out with the name of the store?
- rinaldo

Kijiji and Geared to Win Sports also sell Brians's
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Sep 14 @ 9:28 AM ET
He doesn't believe Quality of Competition matters.
- Aetherial


And you think it does. One of us has done a massive amount of research on the topic.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 14 @ 9:29 AM ET
These aren't "cherry picked" stats, they are the best stats to use.

5v5 is the standard for player evaluation, as 80% of the game is played there. With a few exceptions, scoring on the PP is generally pretty automatic. The game is won and lost at even strength, and so it's what we care about when we want to know things about players and the game.

What about plus minus? Hahahahah


- James_Tanner



Scoring on the PP is generally pretty automatic? The best team in the league on the PP was Anaheim last year, at 23.1%. Nothing wrong with +/- if it's used properly.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Sep 14 @ 9:29 AM ET
Yes, you may notice people don't do any research or check any facts, then they get very sarcastic and rude despite being completely ignorant or making no effort to understand your point.

For example, the New Jersey Devils were coached by Jaques Lemaire and played boring hockey in the 90s, so even though its 20 years later, people still assume they can't score.

- James_Tanner



They were the lowest scoring team in the NHL last year?

Dallas 265 goals
NJ 182 goals

I don't think that's assuming is it?
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