I mean, that's certainly a valid opinion but the way I see it is what other predictive tools do we have at or disposal in regards to sports in general and hockey specifically? Looking at it relatively I do believe analytics is the best we have. You're more than welcome to come into every game cold turkey saying "today is a new day and the past has no bearing on it" and take that sort of aproach if that's what floats your boat. At least to me, I find it fun to analize the trends when hockey isn't physically on and try to make inferences about what will probably happen in the future. My eye test is too subjective and I don't have the time to watch every single NHL game let alone digest what I think of every single player to be able to do it that way.
- Victoro311

I'm not sure or not convinced that analytics are any better at prodicting future events than the eye test of an experienced hockey person, to me analytics are more about supporting or verifying what the eye test should have already told you. The only real advantage is that analytics eliminates the bias that sometimes/often influence the eye test, for someone that knows the game well and can evaluate without personal bias I would wager they could predict future production as well or better than analytics.

As for the comparison to algorithm use in daily fantasy sports, i'm not too sure they are comparable, the reason algorithms work in dfs is because dfs values all plays in a vacuum, 10 yards is 10 yards, it doesn't matter what down it is, it doesn't matter what the score of the game is and it doesn't matter how much time is left in the game, all that matters is that the play went for 10 yards. Valuing plays in a vacuum works great in the fantasy world but it doesn't always translate to real life results.

I disagree with illegal. But think similarly. The guys creating those games destroyed their own product. The job as the casino isn't to help others make money....the job of the casino is to create a strong enough game that punters can atleast have a fiction in their head that they can come out ahead and thus they play more. Casino wants to take the money of the punters; they don't want the card sharks taking the moey.

They can tweak certain house rules that would favor punters over professionals. Would prefer the house changing the rules rather than congress.

From what I head they were actually giving out trips and stuff to the guys who played the most (professionals) when you actually want to shift the freebies to the guys losing money.
- sditulli

Well the way I see it playing daily fantasy always fails the cost benefit for players that don't have algos. And that extends way beyond "punters". Even if you are legitimately good at fantasy football you should not play daily because you're not just going up against odds. You're going up against natural odds which are already stacked against you plus other players who have figured out a way to rig odds in their favor.

So in my opinion there's three different gamblers: peacocks who are just there for various reasons and aren't actually any good, Sharks who are actually talented and know the game well but play clean, and the mechanics who know how to manipulate odds. These are the deck loaders, the card counters, and the algo users of the world. Casinos have done a really good job of black balling mechanics. It's time for draft kings and all those guys to do the same for algo users. Those accounts should be banned by the servers.

I'm not sure or not convinced that analytics are any better at prodicting future events than the eye test of an experienced hockey person, to me analytics are more about supporting or verifying what the eye test should have already told you. The only real advantage is that analytics eliminates the bias that sometimes/often influence the eye test, for someone that knows the game well and can evaluate without personal bias I would wager they could predict future production as well or better than analytics.

As for the comparison to algorithm use in daily fantasy sports, i'm not too sure they are comparable, the reason algorithms work in dfs is because dfs values all plays in a vacuum, 10 yards is 10 yards, it doesn't matter what down it is, it doesn't matter what the score of the game is and it doesn't matter how much time is left in the game, all that matters is that the play went for 10 yards. Valuing plays in a vacuum works great in the fantasy world but it doesn't always translate to real life results.
- jaydogg1974

And yet every successful NHL team is building and using analytics teams. Sounds like the experienced hockey guys value them more than you do.

Well the way I see it playing daily fantasy always fails the cost benefit for players that don't have algos. And that extends way beyond "punters". Even if you are legitimately good at fantasy football you should not play daily because you're not just going up against odds. You're going up against natural odds which are already stacked against you plus other players who have figured out a way to rig odds in their favor.

So in my opinion there's three different gamblers: peacocks who are just there for various reasons and aren't actually any good, Sharks who are actually talented and know the game well but play clean, and the mechanics who know how to manipulate odds. These are the deck loaders, the card counters, and the algo users of the world. Casinos have done a really good job of black balling mechanics. It's time for draft kings and all those guys to do the same for algo users. Those accounts should be banned by the servers.
- Victoro311

Mechanics as you call them will be eliminated from daily fantasy or it will fail. Casinos really got rid of card counters (are not the same thing as cheats) by using more decks and shuffling more so that the odds never shift much. Daily fantasy will find a way to do something similar.

Small time gambling can be entertaining even if the odds are slightly against you. Problem with daily fantasy is the average fan was paying two people - a rake and going against superior competition. When the edge your giving up goes for, 5-6% to 50-60% the game loses its fun.

I didn't read the whole blog now - no time. But seeing a few comments, when did analytics become a 'predictor' of results? The current set of #'s is just a history lesson based (Corsi stats at least), on averages & nothing more. Why are people now talking about predicting models of analytics?

Also, the current analytics don't account for even half the 'events' in a game or the environment it's played (it actually doesn't account for 99% of the environment being players, conditions & officiating), so there's no way it can 'predict' anything.

I like the micro stats though (or OTS stats ), actual real numbers from real events. I'd like to see comparative numbers of those babies from how different teams play the same teams & the results.

Side note: there are people that are imposing their views on others with 'their' numbers. I know Gunner youre deep into the analytics of hockey, but you do it a lot selecting or 'cherry picking' stats to support your argument. If you want to show some show them all to get a balanced view. To say you don't use the numbers as a view to be the end all of your opinion at times is like Spanner saying he's an objective person that reasonably sees both sides of an argument - but this is your blog so I for 1 have no issue with you doing it (just pointing it out that's all! ).

Mechanics as you call them will be eliminated from daily fantasy or it will fail. Casinos really got rid of card counters (are not the same thing as cheats) by using more decks and shuffling more so that the odds never shift much. Daily fantasy will find a way to do something similar.

Small time gambling can be entertaining even if the odds are slightly against you. Problem with daily fantasy is the average fan was paying two people - a rake and going against superior competition. When the edge your giving up goes for, 5-6% to 50-60% the game loses its fun.
- sditulli

Yeah I don't have much against card counters personally since they don't directly affect the odds of the other players at the blackjack table and are only cheating the casino which is making a (frank) ton of money off peacocks to begin with. Just figured I'd lump them in since they're manipulating odds.

I can't wait for the day algos are eliminated from daily fantasy cus that poops fun. But when I found out about the algos I felt like I wasn't losing my money fair and square and it left a bad taste in my mouth so I decided to boycot

I didn't read the whole blog now - no time. But seeing a few comments, when did analytics become a 'predictor' of results? The current set of #'s is just a history lesson based (Corsi stats at least), on averages & nothing more. Why are people now talking about predicting models of analytics?

Also, the current analytics don't account for even half the 'events' in a game or the environment it's played (it actually doesn't account for 99% of the environment being players, conditions & officiating), so there's no way it can 'predict' anything.

I like the micro stats though (or OTS stats ), actual real numbers from real events. I'd like to see comparative numbers of those babies from how different teams play the same teams & the results.

Side note: there are people that are imposing their views on others with 'their' numbers. I know Gunner youre deep into the analytics of hockey, but you do it a lot selecting or 'cherry picking' stats to support your argument. If you want to show some show them all to get a balanced view. To say you don't use the numbers as a view to be the end all of your opinion at times is like Spanner saying he's an objective person that reasonably sees both sides of an argument - but this is your blog so I for 1 have no issue with you doing it (just pointing it out that's all! ).
- Aussiepenguin

more shots = more goals

I'm not sure or not convinced that analytics are any better at prodicting future events than the eye test of an experienced hockey person, to me analytics are more about supporting or verifying what the eye test should have already told you. The only real advantage is that analytics eliminates the bias that sometimes/often influence the eye test, for someone that knows the game well and can evaluate without personal bias I would wager they could predict future production as well or better than analytics.

As for the comparison to algorithm use in daily fantasy sports, i'm not too sure they are comparable, the reason algorithms work in dfs is because dfs values all plays in a vacuum, 10 yards is 10 yards, it doesn't matter what down it is, it doesn't matter what the score of the game is and it doesn't matter how much time is left in the game, all that matters is that the play went for 10 yards. Valuing plays in a vacuum works great in the fantasy world but it doesn't always translate to real life results.
- jaydogg1974

I think it's better to view them as complementary than better/worst. Analytics seem to work best in baseball which is a bit cut/dry. Nfl coaches are now using charts to choose when to go for it on 4th down. I think the eye test for a long time has said coaches should go for it more, but having solid data behind it helps support conclusions.

In the nhl I think analytics have had a huge effect on bottom line construction. Top lines I don't think they differ much with the eye test. But analytics has clearly changed bottom 6 hockey from grit/character guys into guys with an actual hockey game.

Also some things the eye test can't do much for. Remember reading a piece on mccutcheon decline this year and comparison with similar players who suffered a decline at his age. It's not kind to him. I don't many guys with a skill set good at judging how a players aging but a historical sample provided a lot of value.

more shots = more goals
- martox

I always thought that was a poop stat.problem with something like that is its very easy to game and sacrifice shot quality for more shots. If the people playing the game are unaware of the stat them it is useful. But once you are aware of the stat it has the ability to shift playing style and make the stat less reliable. A bit of a schroedingers cat in terms of analytics.

Yeah I don't have much against card counters personally since they don't directly affect the odds of the other players at the blackjack table and are only cheating the casino which is making a (frank) ton of money off peacocks to begin with. Just figured I'd lump them in since they're manipulating odds.

I can't wait for the day algos are eliminated from daily fantasy cus that poops fun. But when I found out about the algos I felt like I wasn't losing my money fair and square and it left a bad taste in my mouth so I decided to boycot
- Victoro311

They actually do take money from the customer in normal economic theory. A competitive market implies that casinos compete against each other and drive down each other's margins. So if a certain group of players are effecting the casino margins then casino will adjust other things to regain their margins (lower odds for other players)

Yeah I don't have much against card counters personally since they don't directly affect the odds of the other players at the blackjack table and are only cheating the casino which is making a (frank) ton of money off peacocks to begin with. Just figured I'd lump them in since they're manipulating odds.

I can't wait for the day algos are eliminated from daily fantasy cus that poops fun. But when I found out about the algos I felt like I wasn't losing my money fair and square and it left a bad taste in my mouth so I decided to boycot
- Victoro311

Anytime money is involved someone will find a way to cheat or steal it. I like to play the horses and even though they have tons of regulations their are still certain tracks and certain trainers that I avoid at all costs.

Anytime money is involved someone will find a way to cheat or steal it. I like to play the horses and even though they have tons of regulations their are still certain tracks and certain trainers that I avoid at all costs.
- Thunderbolt

I hate to call card counting "cheating". The thing with card counting is its a difficult skill so only a few people are really good at it to create an edge. Its akin to understanding probability and being a poker player. If you were the only one who could calculate pot odds it would be a huge edge, but most people can have a decent idea on odds of drawing a card in poker.

I hate to call card counting "cheating". The thing with card counting is its a difficult skill so only a few people are really good at it to create an edge. Its akin to understanding probability and being a poker player. If you were the only one who could calculate pot odds it would be a huge edge, but most people can have a decent idea on odds of drawing a card in poker.
- sditulli

Poker is more about reading your opponent than calculating pot odds. I may be able to calculate the odds perfectly but if my opponent knows what I am holding I can't win a large pot.

Be that as it may, fantasy sports has gotten big enough that people are going to find a way to cheat. I can't remember how it went down but two different fantasy sites were somehow winning each others games. They were taking all the outside people's money and were content on doing so until they got caught.

Table games, slots, horse racing, stock market, insurance; all have had scams of some sort and need to be regulated. The same goes for fantasy games. Name me one industry or money making venture that has never been the victim of scams.

Poker is more about reading your opponent than calculating pot odds. I may be able to calculate the odds perfectly but if my opponent knows what I am holding I can't win a large pot.

Be that as it may, fantasy sports has gotten big enough that people are going to find a way to cheat. I can't remember how it went down but two different fantasy sites were somehow winning each others games. They were taking all the outside people's money and were content on doing so until they got caught.

Table games, slots, horse racing, stock market, insurance; all have had scams of some sort and need to be regulated. The same goes for fantasy games. Name me one industry or money making venture that has never been the victim of scams.
- Thunderbolt

Poker is 90% pot odds. Reading a guy is a very small part of the game. And elite guys aren't going to be giving out "tells". Only a very small part of the game is reads.

The fantasy game wasn't really cheating, but it was shady. I believe it was tournament play which is a bit like a lottery. so a bit like a lottery in that you do not want to have the same number as another guy who hits. They knew the players that no one was playing so put in lineups that were less likely to have other guys with the same players in the game. That and they had the analytics down for playing the game. Atleast that is the best I could tell from what happened. Couldn't actually cheat since the fantasy site guys weren't "buying players" and manipulating actual NFL contests. But they had better data than the average player.

So don't load up your best players on the same line too often. OK. I can get on board with that. Other than that, I am dazes and confused by this blog.

Poker is 90% pot odds. Reading a guy is a very small part of the game. And elite guys aren't going to be giving out "tells". Only a very small part of the game is reads.

The fantasy game wasn't really cheating, but it was shady. I believe it was tournament play which is a bit like a lottery. so a bit like a lottery in that you do not want to have the same number as another guy who hits. They knew the players that no one was playing so put in lineups that were less likely to have other guys with the same players in the game. That and they had the analytics down for playing the game. Atleast that is the best I could tell from what happened. Couldn't actually cheat since the fantasy site guys weren't "buying players" and manipulating actual NFL contests. But they had better data than the average player.
- sditulli

If I know your line up and you don't know mine who has the advantage? Unless all the participants have access to the same information, it is cheating.

If I know your line up and you don't know mine who has the advantage? Unless all the participants have access to the same information, it is cheating.
- Thunderbolt

Grey area. Have a feeling a lot of the data is something someone could figure out themselves with a lot of leg work. If they want to have a viable business of trusts then each site should ban employees of the other site from participating (With a clawback provision. I'm sure somehow that can be implemented in user agreements).

a lot of interesting stuff here.

You're a boring.
- jmatchett383

Boring is an adjective not a noun.

more shots = more goals
- martox

Big if true!

Yeah I don't have much against card counters personally since they don't directly affect the odds of the other players at the blackjack table and are only cheating the casino which is making a (frank) ton of money off peacocks to begin with. Just figured I'd lump them in since they're manipulating odds.

I can't wait for the day algos are eliminated from daily fantasy cus that poops fun. But when I found out about the algos I felt like I wasn't losing my money fair and square and it left a bad taste in my mouth so I decided to boycot
- Victoro311

I just turned my $5 tournament line up into $30 so I'm pretty pumped.

This will only matter to people who like playing EA's NHL series, but apparently MAF is ranked in the top ten of goalies at a 90 but the Pens composite score for goaltending is a 79. How bad did they make Matt Murray?

Poker is 90% pot odds. Reading a guy is a very small part of the game. And elite guys aren't going to be giving out "tells". Only a very small part of the game is reads.

The fantasy game wasn't really cheating, but it was shady. I believe it was tournament play which is a bit like a lottery. so a bit like a lottery in that you do not want to have the same number as another guy who hits. They knew the players that no one was playing so put in lineups that were less likely to have other guys with the same players in the game. That and they had the analytics down for playing the game. Atleast that is the best I could tell from what happened. Couldn't actually cheat since the fantasy site guys weren't "buying players" and manipulating actual NFL contests. But they had better data than the average player.
- sditulli

That's not necessarily true, I was a full-time poker player for over a decade and while pot odds are a crucial part of the game(if you want to be profitable) they're not the most important factor because pretty much every player playing today is capable of calculating pot odds, what give the truly great players the advantage is their ability to not only read their opponent but to understand how to manipulate the player and situation. Pot odds are important because going against those odds will greatly affect your ability to be profitable regardless of how well you play but since pot odds is such a basic function of poker that even the most novice of players understands, being able to control the hand/game through more advanced understandings like reverse stack sizing and a superior knowledge of opponent ranging is what separates the great players from everyone else.

Mechanics as you call them will be eliminated from daily fantasy or it will fail. Casinos really got rid of card counters (are not the same thing as cheats) by using more decks and shuffling more so that the odds never shift much. Daily fantasy will find a way to do something similar.

Small time gambling can be entertaining even if the odds are slightly against you. Problem with daily fantasy is the average fan was paying two people - a rake and going against superior competition. When the edge your giving up goes for, 5-6% to 50-60% the game loses its fun.
- sditulli

Not sure I completely agree with that, in the long term it should hurt the overall product but it's pretty much common knowledge at this point that the aglo users are dominating the sport and are winning all the money it is still growing by the day. At the end of the day the big companies that can offer large guarantee pay outs for minimal buy-ins will always stay solvent because there are too many people in this world that have delusions of grandeur and will gladly part with their money for the chance to win $1,000,000 even if the know they have no chance of ever actually winning it. I see it much like the Powerball, even though the average person knows they really have no chance of winning, they don't mind dropping $20, $40 or $100 for the chance at being rich. The only way daily fantasy sports is going to change is if it becomes regulated.

This will only matter to people who like playing EA's NHL series, but apparently MAF is ranked in the top ten of goalies at a 90 but the Pens composite score for goaltending is a 79. How bad did they make Matt Murray?
- Victoro311

I have the 10 hour trial... Only tossed it on for a few minutes the other night... Pretty sure he's rated in low 80's.