Next time someone tells us all about how +/- is a team stat, we should point out that in 2015-2016, 7/9, (Mmmmm, 7 of 9) and 10 /17 CF% players were Los Angeles Kings (according to some page I just found).
- Aetherial

That it's a team stat isn't really one of the main arguments for not using it.

The reason it's a bad stat is because goals are random and the sample size of their occuring is relatively small. This is why when you use plus/minus for shots, you get a far more accurate reading of what's really happened.

It all goes back to looking at process vs results.

Furthermore, your corsi rating isn't tied to your goalie's performance like it is in plus minus. So while they are very similar stats, there are some key differences you guys have been ignoring when you act like Corsi is the same thing.

On Rundblad:

I don't even necessarily disagree with the bold points above, but you can't really say that's those are the only points you've been trying to make when this whole gongshow started with your "he's a great player" quote.
- PancakesPenner

Exactly, if Tanner had used the stats correctly, and only stated that he thinks the player should be given a shot somewhere, he would be receiving far less backlash on the issue. Next will come that it was sarcasm, and light-hearted humor.

Well, who's to say he won't? Certainly I think he should. But that being said, the Coyotes have about 11 or 12 guys in camp already who'll be competing for a job on D.
- James_Tanner

so is it safe to assume that the GM sees those 11 or 12 guys as better players for his team? If he doesn't then seems odd he wouldn't invite him no?

All teams use stats to some degree. As of today, the Blackhawks are not considered to be one of the leading teams moving in the analytical direction.

For proof, see the contracts they gave their superstars, the contract they gave to Seabrook, the way they lost Terro and their tendency to reward players like Bolland or whats his name.

Not that their a terribly run team, but I wouldn't put them at the forefront of the movement.
- James_Tanner

Agreed. The seabrook contract seems to be the one misstep.

But they didn't reward bolland; they shipped his ass out. same with shaw.

But do you really think the hawks constructed a roster entirely of positive GAR players and it was just a fluke?

https://mapleleafshotstov...cago-blackhawks-playbook/

seems like the are using advanced stats, and they are working. Just not the ones you are convinced are the only ones that work.

I have to say, this is one of the worst, most annoying conversations this comments section has ever seen.

The entire point I've been trying to make is that a) he has good stats b) that warrants giving him a chance at a zero-risk deal c) NHL teams can - and often do - all pass on a guy who goes on to a good career. Not saying this is likely or even that it happens often, but it does happen.

Considering those are my main points, it is ridiculous that nearly everyone keeps using the same reasoning i.e that he must suck because ever team passed on him.

Logically, this is a massive breakdown because if the point is "he might be good in spite of all teams passing on him" then "all teams passed on him" is not a response that makes any sense.

Finally, I've seen people bending over backwards to discredit his stats. You don't have to do this. Maybe there is more to evaluating players than just raw stats, however stats are still the most important factor, because no matter what you say David Rundblad has been VERY effective over the course of 110 some-odd NHL games. Now, perhaps there are reasons for this and obviously he should normalize over time, if he gets it, because I don't really think it's likely he is a first pairing Dman. However, it isn't impossible.

You can throw out all the excuses you want to - credit his teammates, detract from his opposition or his zone starts - but it doesn't change the fact that it's pretty much accepted as a fact that a) if you perform well low in the lineup it transfers as you move up and b) quality of Teammates, competition and zone starts have way way way less of an effect than people think.

As far as every single way we have to measure a hockey player, Rundblad looks great. There is enough sample size and real world information to adjust this so you can reasonably doubt that he is in fact great. But you can't excuse all of it away and it would be stupid to write off a player who has been this measurably effective.

Stats might 'not tell the whole story' but they certainly tell most of it. And again, I'm not arguing that Rundblad is an allstar. All I am saying is that instead of trading away a core forward piece with 82 games to go until the Playoffs, from a risk/reward perspective, it makes sense to keep the forward and sign the defenseman who has shown to be very effective in the NHL. Give him a chance to play 20 mins a game on a second pairing and see if you don't strike gold.

If, in fact, it turns out that he really can't cut it at that level, then you cut him and go back to the idea of moving a forward for a defenseman.

The fact that he's been so effective, statistically, suggests he should be given a shot. That's it.
- James_Tanner

Stats are not the most important factor in evaluating a player, that is completely false. That's why you have the issues you have, and reach such poor conclusions on a regular basis. Stats are just one tool, and are nowhere near the most important factor. It's also false that Runblad looks great in every single way we have to measure a player. The most important method we have of measuring a player, is watching him play. Watching him play, he certainly does not look great. He looks like he's not an NHL player.

That it's a team stat isn't really one of the main arguments for not using it.

The reason it's a bad stat is because goals are random and the sample size of their occuring is relatively small. This is why when you use plus/minus for shots, you get a far more accurate reading of what's really happened.

It all goes back to looking at process vs results.

Furthermore, your corsi rating isn't tied to your goalie's performance like it is in plus minus. So while they are very similar stats, there are some key differences you guys have been ignoring when you act like Corsi is the same thing.
- James_Tanner

That's a false narrative. Nobody thinks +/- and Corsi are the same thing. Corsi helps with the issue of sample size, but it still has some of the same problems, with false data. A players corsi rating may not be tied to the goalie's performance, but it is certainly tied to the other 4 skaters out on the ice with you. Ahh!, maybe that's why Runblad has a 55% CF.

Agreed. The seabrook contract seems to be the one misstep.

But they didn't reward bolland; they shipped his ass out. same with shaw.

But do you really the hawks constructed a roster entirely of positive GAR players and it was just a fluke?

https://mapleleafshotstov...cago-blackhawks-playbook/

seems like the are using advanced stats, and they are working. Just not the ones you are convinced are the only ones that work.
- Tumbleweed

Tanner is incorrect about the Blackhawks. They're on the forefront of analytics, to the point where Bowman is reluctant to discuss how they use them. Tanner is just disillusioned that if a team uses analytics, they won't make any mistakes.

That it's a team stat isn't really one of the main arguments for not using it.

The reason it's a bad stat is because goals are random and the sample size of their occuring is relatively small. This is why when you use plus/minus for shots, you get a far more accurate reading of what's really happened.

It all goes back to looking at process vs results.

Furthermore, your corsi rating isn't tied to your goalie's performance like it is in plus minus. So while they are very similar stats, there are some key differences you guys have been ignoring when you act like Corsi is the same thing.
- James_Tanner

Do I need to explain the specific short-comings of rel corsi to you too, or can you google that one on your own?

Tanner is incorrect about the Blackhawks. They're on the forefront of analytics, to the point where Bowman is reluctant to discuss how they use them. Tanner is just disillusioned that if a team uses analytics, they won't make any mistakes.
- MJL

Stan bowman. Young gm. Using advanced stats. Winning Stanley cups. Seems to check all the boxes of his ideal gm/team.
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Got it - Comes from a hockey family. Probably why he chooses to completely ignore what bowman has been doing.

so is it safe to assume that the GM sees those 11 or 12 guys as better players for his team? If he doesn't then seems odd he wouldn't invite him no?
- rinaldo

Well yeah, but that doesn't mean he's right. I would personally give Rundblad a shot over Luke Schenn or Dahlbeck, for example.

Well yeah, but that doesn't mean he's right. I would personally give Rundblad a shot over Luke Schenn or Dahlbeck, for example.
- James_Tanner

Doesn't mean he and the 30 other GM's are wrong, either. Lots of factors involved in adding players. Schenn and Runblad are obviously not the same kind of defenseman.

Here is one thing that needs to be stipulated. Just because Runblad hasn't signed with anyone, doesn't mean that nobody has made him an offer.

Ya'll love it.

PDO.

Well yeah, but that doesn't mean he's right. I would personally give Rundblad a shot over Luke Schenn or Dahlbeck, for example.
- James_Tanner

correct it doesn't, just shows imo what he thinks of rundblad.

Agreed. The seabrook contract seems to be the one misstep.

But they didn't reward bolland; they shipped his ass out. same with shaw.

But do you really think the hawks constructed a roster entirely of positive GAR players and it was just a fluke?

https://mapleleafshotstov...cago-blackhawks-playbook/

seems like the are using advanced stats, and they are working. Just not the ones you are convinced are the only ones that work.
- Tumbleweed

Seabrook's better than people give him credit for...sure maybe he's slowing down...but there's a reason he's 2 years younger than Keith and has played more NHL games to date.

Seabrook's better than people give him credit for...sure maybe he's slowing down...but there's a reason he's 2 years younger than Keith and has played more NHL games to date.
- Garnie

The issue with Seabrook's deal isn't how good he is playing now, it is more how good he will be in the second half of that deal. His mobility could become an issue and the minutes he has played may really start to take a toll on him. He has had some concussions and was in rough shape after game 7 versus the St Louis Blues in the 2016 playoffs. The extra rest this summer should help him. When Seabrook is on his game, he is a great D and one of the most well rounded in the NHL.

Seabrook's better than people give him credit for...sure maybe he's slowing down...but there's a reason he's 2 years younger than Keith and has played more NHL games to date.
- Garnie

Seabrook is actually way worse than people think. If Dion Phaneuf played on all those Hawks teams and Seabrook was the captain of the Leafs during that period, their reputations would be reversed.

It wouldn't surprise me if you put all their stats in context if Dion ended up being the better player.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com...Andrew-Saadalla/219/78880

According to another Hockeybuzz blogger, it's his league worst 106 turnovers, and the fact that he doesn't get along with his team mates. Makes sense.

Seabrook is actually way worse than people think. If Dion Phaneuf played on all those Hawks teams and Seabrook was the captain of the Leafs during that period, their reputations would be reversed.

It wouldn't surprise me if you put all their stats in context if Dion ended up being the better player.
- James_Tanner

What on earth leads you to believe this?

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Habs-Talk/Why-Subban-Was-Snubbed-by-Andrew-Saadalla/219/78880

According to another Hockeybuzz blogger, it's his league worst 106 turnovers, and the fact that he doesn't get along with his team mates. Makes sense.
- scottak

Please, turnovers aren't even a real stat. Guess what has to happen before you turn the puck over? You have to have it.


There is no explaining away why PK isn't on the team without assuming because the team is managed by hockey professionals they are infallible. It's a horrible mistake that likely won't matter because the team is awesome anyways.

Please, turnovers aren't even a real stat. Guess what has to happen before you turn the puck over? You have to have it.


There is no explaining away why PK isn't on the team without assuming because the team is managed by hockey professionals they are infallible. It's a horrible mistake that likely won't matter because the team is awesome anyways.
- James_Tanner

The problem with giveaways is that it's subjective, and really inconsistent from building to building. Any defenseman that plays a lot of minutes, and handles and skates the puck a lot, is going to have a high giveaway number. I get the feeling there is some kind of politics involved, for lack of a better term with Subban, and I don't know why.

The problem with giveaways is that it's subjective, and really inconsistent from building to building. Any defenseman that plays a lot of minutes, and handles and skates the puck a lot, is going to have a high giveaway number. I get the feeling there is some kind of politics involved, for lack of a better term with Subban, and I don't know why.
- MJL

Mark this on the calendar dude cause you just made a post I actually agree with.

Minus: Your lack of a grasp on logical arguments. Funny you mention something like inclusive, but the truth is inclusivity only plays a part in your world when it supports something you believe in.

Plus: There is hope you will one day will learn to think for yourself and not parrot other people's ideas and pass them off as your own.

To be at your age, with a child and still remain so immature is an amazing thing. Next you will tell me all abput black lves matter and then go on to lecture me anout Ferguson,MO, the area of the world I grew up.

Mark this on the calendar dude cause you just made a post I actually agree with.
- James_Tanner

Awesome dude. Actually I already marked my calendar with the date and time that James Tanner actually made a sensible point!

Minus: Your lack of a grasp on logical arguments. Funny you mention something like inclusive, but the truth is inclusivity only plays a part in your world when it supports something you believe in.

Plus: There is hope you will one day will learn to think for yourself and not parrot other people's ideas and pass them off as your own.

To be at your age, with a child and still remain so immature is an amazing thing. Next you will tell me all abput black lves matter and then go on to lecture me anout Ferguson,MO, the area of the world I grew up.
- BluemanGuruu

Sure, comment about someone's maturity while anonymously ripping them on an internet comment board.

Seabrook is actually way worse than people think. If Dion Phaneuf played on all those Hawks teams and Seabrook was the captain of the Leafs during that period, their reputations would be reversed.

It wouldn't surprise me if you put all their stats in context if Dion ended up being the better player.
- James_Tanner

Hilarious...i'm not even going to bother.