2nd and 3rd round picks are crapshoots. Per Hockeys Future on Crouse

"Crouse was the second-leading scorer for the Kingston Frontenacs in 2015-16 and was dominant at times during the OHL playoffs. He was an assistant captain for Canada at the World Juniors as an 18-year-old. Crouse will make a strong push for a roster spot with the Panthers in training camp. He is too young to play in the AHL in 2016-17 and would have to return to juniors. He is also eligible to play for Canada again at the 2017 WJC. Viewed by some scouts as a big player who dominated junior hockey due to his size advantage, Crouse took big steps in 2015-16 and has the appearance of a future top-six forward."

I don't see how this is a bad trade for Arizona, given they aren't going to be competiive for a few years, and by that time Bolland will be off the books. So Arizona gets a closer to NHL ready prospect than either of those picks are going to be, giving the kid time to grow with Arizona's young core... Do you even armchair GM?
- j.boyd919

I really like the deal for the yotes. Send him back to JR and your giving up two 3rd rounders. I dont think he will be a dominant player but I do see him as a player who can move up and down your line up and play a physical role. He skates very well. I see him as maybe 40 point player who has great size for the post season.

He would be on regular IR, not LTIR. LTIR is only used in situations where replacing the player, would put a team over the upper limit. LTIR doesn't exist when a team is under the upper limit. A team using LTIR is essentially over the Upper Limit and not banking cap space. A team must use all of it's cap space under the Upper Limit before qualifying for the LTIR exemption which is what it is, an exemption to go over the Upper Limit to replace an injured player.

True, moving the Bolland contract could help them in future years.
- MJL

With bolland gone, they have the potential to bank a ton of cap space at the TDL.

That flexibility can be pretty useful that time of year.

He would be on regular IR, not LTIR. LTIR is only used in situations where replacing the player, would put a team over the upper limit. LTIR doesn't exist when a team is under the upper limit. A team using LTIR is essentially over the Upper Limit and not banking cap space. A team must use all of it's cap space under the Upper Limit before qualifying for the LTIR exemption which is what it is, an exemption to go over the Upper Limit to replace an injured player.

True, moving the Bolland contract could help them in future years.
- MJL

Did you research this? A player drafted in the 2nd round has about a 44% chance of making the NHL. A player in the 7th round has about a 20% or less chance. That's a significant difference.
- MJL

More like 30+% vs 12% which I acknowledged a 2nd round pick has a higher chance to make it but it's a low probability in both cases which was the point.

Hmmm I do not like some of these rankings, therefore this list is wrong
- rangerdanger94

Somewhere around 15%
- MJL

It differs for each team tho too. The Rangers for example are the best drafting team in later rounds while a team like the Oilers are abysmal. So a 5th round pick to the Rangers is more valuable than it is to the Oilers.

More like 30+% vs 12% which I acknowledged a 2nd round pick has a higher chance to make it but it's a low probability in both cases which was the point.
- Feds91Stammer

And any pick can turn out to hit his ceiling like a Jamie Benn or a Datsyuk. There's always a risk in trading picks, but it's all pretty random anyways. For instance, if a team takes the draft pick you traded them and they score a Jamie Benn, it's still highly unlikely that you would have picked that player anyways, had you kept the pick.

The fact is, if you keep your 2nd and 3rd round picks in any given draft year and come out with a prospect as good as Crouse, your very happy about your draft.

The Coyotes have four centrepiece players - Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, Max Domi and OEL. Then they have so many secondary pieces with high upside (15 or so guys 25 and under) that if only 4 or 5 of them become NHL regulars, the Coyotes are going to be an awesome team for years.

So Crouse is just padding the odds and widening the field of players who might work out.

With bolland gone, they have the potential to bank a ton of cap space at the TDL.

That flexibility can be pretty useful that time of year.
- Tumbleweed

Correct, that extra cap space will add up at the TDL.

And any pick can turn out to hit his ceiling like a Jamie Benn or a Datsyuk. There's always a risk in trading picks, but it's all pretty random anyways. For instance, if a team takes the draft pick you traded them and they score a Jamie Benn, it's still highly unlikely that you would have picked that player anyways, had you kept the pick.

The fact is, if you keep your 2nd and 3rd round picks in any given draft year and come out with a prospect as good as Crouse, your very happy about your draft.

The Coyotes have four centrepiece players - Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, Max Domi and OEL. Then they have so many secondary pieces with high upside (15 or so guys 25 and under) that if only 4 or 5 of them become NHL regulars, the Coyotes are going to be an awesome team for years.

So Crouse is just padding the odds and widening the field of players who might work out.
- James_Tanner

It's random to an extent. Some teams are statistically better at drafting in rounds 3-7 than other teams are, and if that's a consistent trend over say a 10 or 15 year period, there's likely a reason.

It differs for each team tho too. The Rangers for example are the best drafting team in later rounds while a team like the Oilers are abysmal. So a 5th round pick to the Rangers is more valuable than it is to the Oilers.
- rangerdanger94

That isn't true though, because if you follow your original strong line of thinking, you have to consider that over that period of time, the staffs and management and philosophies of those teams has changed a lot. Also, luck plays a massive factor and if you just get lucky a few times, you can easily get a reputation as a team that racks up the late pick gems.

I don't think even the best and worst teams have more than a minor difference in their chances of picking a star player in the late rounds. I can't think of any way in which it's not almost completely random.

More like 30+% vs 12% which I acknowledged a 2nd round pick has a higher chance to make it but it's a low probability in both cases which was the point.
- Feds91Stammer

Where's your research? Travis Yost looked at a 10 year period in the NHL, and has the odds higher for a 2nd round pick.

Have you researched what LTIR actually is yet?

http://www.tsn.ca/playing...in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

It's random to an extent. Some teams are statistically better at drafting in rounds 3-7 than other teams are, and if that's a consistent trend over say a 10 or 15 year period, there's likely a reason.
- rangerdanger94

Well teams like the rangers can focus their scouting resources into the guys ranked 50-200 because they trade away their 1st every year.

It differs for each team tho too. The Rangers for example are the best drafting team in later rounds while a team like the Oilers are abysmal. So a 5th round pick to the Rangers is more valuable than it is to the Oilers.
- rangerdanger94

Those numbers are just an average from a 10 year period.

That isn't true though, because if you follow your original strong line of thinking, you have to consider that over that period of time, the staffs and management and philosophies of those teams has changed a lot. Also, luck plays a massive factor and if you just get lucky a few times, you can easily get a reputation as a team that racks up the late pick gems.

I don't think even the best and worst teams have more than a minor difference in their chances of picking a star player in the late rounds. I can't think of any way in which it's not almost completely random.
- James_Tanner

You bring up a good point that scouting staffs and philosophies may change over time, but some teams have kept more or less the same scouting staff for a long time. The Rangers being an example. Additionally, the research and statistics beg to differ:
https://tifubyjoiningredd...ngers-drafted-since-2000/
https://tifubyjoiningredd...ilers-drafted-since-2000/

You can see there that since 2000, in round 4+ the Rangers have a 19% success rate while the Oilers have an abysmal 9% rate. The Rangers are over twice as successful at drafting in round 4+ than the Oilers, and that is significant. And likely not "completely" random.

Where's your research? Travis Yost looked at a 10 year period in the NHL, and has the odds higher for a 2nd round pick.

Have you researched what LTIR actually is yet?

http://www.tsn.ca/playing...in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144
- MJL

http://www.tsn.ca/statist...-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

LTIR is:

The LTIR is specifically defined in Article 50.10(d) in the 2013 CBA. A player is eligible to be placed on the LTIR if the player has been determined to be unfit to play by the team’s physician for a minimum of 24 days and 10 regular season games.

I also believe a player has to be on LTIR for 30 consecutive games for insurance to kick in.

whos Vesey ?
- Xizord

I can't tell you, but you might notice nobody ever sees Superman and Vesey in the same place at the same time.... Coincidence? I think not.

Vesey is like Jesus without all the preachy stuff. He just performs miracles, heals what ails you makes the world a better place. Especially Rangerstown.

What's the difference between a 3rd rounder and a 7th?
- rangerdanger94

4 Rounds. You don't need a Harvard Education like Jimmy Vesey to figure that out.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

LTIR is:

The LTIR is specifically defined in Article 50.10(d) in the 2013 CBA. A player is eligible to be placed on the LTIR if the player has been determined to be unfit to play by the team’s physician for a minimum of 24 days and 10 regular season games.

I also believe a player has to be on LTIR for 30 consecutive games for insurance to kick in.
- Feds91Stammer

There's far more to it than that, you did not post the full rules of LTIR. A team using LTIR is by definition over the Upper Limit and is not banking cap space. As long as a team is under the upper limit, including the cap hits of the injured players, they are not using LTIR. LTIR is an exemption to go over the Upper Limit to replace an injured player. Otherwise players are on the IR list.

Look where generalfanager has Pronger.



http://www.generalfanager...com/teams/arizona-coyotes

There's far more to it than that, you did not post the full rules of LTIR. A team using LTIR is by definition over the Upper Limit and is not banking cap space. As long as a team is under the upper limit, including the cap hits of the injured players, they are not using LTIR. LTIR is an exemption to go over the Upper Limit to replace an injured player. Otherwise players are on the IR list.

Look where generalfanager has Pronger.



http://www.generalfanager...com/teams/arizona-coyotes
- MJL

Same place they have guys like Franzen...

You don't have to be seeking out cap relief to place a player on LTIR

Same place they have guys like Franzen...

You don't have to be seeking out cap relief to place a player on LTIR
- Feds91Stammer

You need to do some research, on how LTIR works, and when it kicks in.

Detroit is projected to be over the Upper Limit, which is why Franzen and Vitale are listed on LTIR and not on IR.

http://www.generalfanager...m/teams/detroit-red-wings

Same place they have guys like Franzen...

You don't have to be seeking out cap relief to place a player on LTIR
- Feds91Stammer

LTIR and IR are two distinct terms in the cba.

As far as I understand them, they are basically the same except with LTIR you cap relief; IR is for no cap relief.

LTIR and IR are two distinct terms in the cba.

As far as I understand them, they are basically the same except with LTIR you cap relief; IR is for no cap relief.
- Tumbleweed

LTIR only kicks in when replacing an injured player puts a team over the Upper Limit. Otherwise any injured player, even a player who will not play all season, is on IR.

LTIR only kicks in when replacing an injured player puts a team over the Upper Limit. Otherwise any injured player, even a player who will not play all season, is on IR.
- MJL

Agreed

Even if Bolland ends up playing, the Coyotes have 30 million coming off the books after this season and none of their best players will need big money for a couple years after that - maybe OEL, but that's one guy.

Yes, Bolland is a joke @$5 mill but he'd still probably be a decent 4th liner, so if his money isn't preventing other moves, which it won't be, it's OK if he does play. Not gonna hurt a thing.
- James_Tanner

For a borderline bankrupt team I think $10 million buyout has a lot of value. This trade took a lot of risks. If it's 3 years of ltir then you essentially sent $3 million and 2 3rd round picks which is fine. But if he's not ltir this kid isn't worth $10 million in cash costs. I'm sure there's other areas the team can spend that money for a better bang. Facility upgrades more scouts development guys etc which would help current prospects hit their ceilings.

Also from what I can tell insurance pays 80%. Doesn't the insurance company actually perform a physical etc to make sure the guy is actually ltir? Cuz Holland falls in the camp of I'm vastly overpaid and it's better for everyone but the insurance company that I claim I'm injured.

Even if Crouse has no skill, I think its a great for Arizona based on his size alone. Throw in the skill he does have and will get better, then you start to think how dangerous AZ will be with Strome, Domi, Duclair, Crouse, E.Larsson.

Im not a Yote fan but it feels like for the first time in a long time they are on the right path.
- Leniwm1

I've been told many many times, size doesn't matter!