This isn't going to be a popular opinion but I think the fans are going to be the ones that things don't end well for, this is all 100% gut feeling on my part and has absolutely nothing else backing it up but my bold prediction is that the fans get let down when GMJR and management decide to move Murray at seasons end for a king's ransom and they hold on to Fleury to bridge the gap until Jarry or Gustavsson is ready to be the #1.

Before everyone flips out about how retarded that prediction is, I'm openly admitting that it probably has a .00001% chance of coming true hence it being a bold prediction.
- jaydogg1974

I consider that as the number one back up plan. 10-20% probability.

I don't think fan base will care that much if we get good value. I think you construct a team with 4-5 key pieces. 2-3 forwards, 1-2 D, and a goalie. If we can flip Murray for a potential 1st line winger and maybe another asset then I'm interested. Something like nylander of Toronto as the center piece of a package. (Not saying Toronto is the ideal trade but in terms of asset a legit 1st line guy on elc). Tzkachuck could interesting me to. If we can't get a deal for fleury that is reasonable then I have no problem flipping him for an asset like that. Someone who has a realistic shot at becoming a forsberg level wing.

I am going to type a very long post to debate terminology and discuss things as facts even though I admit that they are opinions yet I will state that your opinions stated as facts are wrong. I will then go on to give various examples of my opinions and treat them as facts to counter your opinions which you presented as facts. We will then have a circular argument where neither of us will admit that we are, indeed, talking out of our asses since we are not NHL GMs, and do not know the inner workings of NHL organizations.

Over the course of this incredibly long exchange that goes nowhere, others will respond with equally long posts aimed to dissuade one of us off from the hill that we will die on, and whether or not they make sense, we will do no more than acknowledge that they may have some merit while holding firm to our unwavering stance.

We will seek to take up copious amounts of space to discuss these facts, and when all is said and done, we will not have changed the opinions (“facts”) of each other or anyone else because, really, the issues are far from black and white. While our brains may realize that there are exceptions to rules and that every circumstance has to evaluated independently, we will make blanket statements to prove that we can indeed urinate further than the other person. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
- jmatchett383

Well, like, you don't have to read them, man.

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said but I think where we're differing is that you seem to be listing players like Monahan, Barkov, Saad as franchise cornerstone players where as I don't see those players as being on the same level as franchise cornerstone players yet. I think that in itself my be the hardest part in all of it to justify when looking at players that are solid but still unproven as elite players. I just can't see teams breaking the mold of comparable contracts to sign 22-24yo players on the hope that they will fully develop to elite level cornerstones, that's reserved for the generational talents like Crosby, Ovechkin and McDavid. I think the biggest difference and the biggest flaw in your comparisons is that your comparing what Kane or Benn are getting now as established players to what Monahan. Barkov and Saad are getting as players who are still establishing themselves as elite and not to what Kane/Benn were getting when they were at the same developmental stage as the other guys. Maybe I'm just being naive but knowing that most NHL owner/gms are very savvy business men, I just can't see them not properly valuing players and doing bad business, which is exactly what paying an unproven Monahan the same as a proven Kane would be, they just aren't comparable and even though I think there would be the occasional outlier like the Subban deal, they would be the outliers and not the norm. If they eliminated the RFA years and every player became a UFA after the entry level deals I honestly don't think there would be a huge spike in most young players salaries.
- jaydogg1974

Well I was actually comparing what Kane and Benn got to what Tarasenko and Hall got. If you ask me, Saad actually got fare market value which I will admit was strange. I through Saad out as an example of when offersheets are actually an effective bargaining tool for the player, which is true because the Saad situation was the perfect storm for an offer sheet. But no, I do not think Saad is elite.

I do firmly believe Barkov and Monahan are tracking towards elite players. If you refuse to pay anone who's not established money you won't have a good team, and we see examples of this all throught the league. How many players get a 2-3 mil bridge deal who don't really deserve it just based off potential. This is the same concept. Tell me that a guy like Monahan who had ~30 goals ~60 points two years in a row at age 22 can't get a 7.5 mil contract in the open market. Voracek got that money as a RFA for being a lesser player than that his whole career and hitting PPG once. Granted yes, contract year, but who'd you rather have at 7.5v The 26 year old who was PPG in a contract year. Put up great stats in the lock out year where anything goes (see Tlusty) and besides that has just been a solid top 6 scorer, or a guy who had a pretty good rookie year and them put up 30 gs and 60 pts his sophomore and junior years on a bad possession team as a 22 year old?

If you never pay for upside, you're not going to go far.

Obviously this assumes that RFA isn't a thing. Sorry if this rambled. I've been drinking.

I imagine JR has been hoping that someone will call him with a convincing offer for Fleury, but actually getting offers for Murray. I see the reason behind keeping Fleury for now though: (1) As certain as we are that Murray isn't a one-hit wonder, it doesn't hurt to keep Flower around until Murray has at least had half a season in the NHL under his belt and (2) Fleury is a good goaltender and will only increase his value playing behind a good team.

We'll be able to at least shed Fleury, even if we don't get much of anything in return. If JR isn't getting calls that are better than that, there's no harm keeping him around for a while in the hope that someone does.

Well I was actually comparing what Kane and Benn got to what Tarasenko and Hall got. If you ask me, Saad actually got fare market value which I will admit was strange. I through Saad out as an example of when offersheets are actually an effective bargaining tool for the player, which is true because the Saad situation was the perfect storm for an offer sheet. But no, I do not think Saad is elite.

I do firmly believe Barkov and Monahan are tracking towards elite players. If you refuse to pay anone who's not established money you won't have a good team, and we see examples of this all throught the league. How many players get a 2-3 mil bridge deal who don't really deserve it just based off potential. This is the same concept. Tell me that a guy like Monahan who had ~30 goals ~60 points two years in a row at age 22 can't get a 7.5 mil contract in the open market. Voracek got that money as a RFA for being a lesser player than that his whole career and hitting PPG once. Granted yes, contract year, but who'd you rather have at 7.5v The 26 year old who was PPG in a contract year. Put up great stats in the lock out year where anything goes (see Tlusty) and besides that has just been a solid top 6 scorer, or a guy who had a pretty good rookie year and them put up 30 gs and 60 pts his sophomore and junior years on a bad possession team as a 22 year old?

If you never pay for upside, you're not going to go far.

Obviously this assumes that RFA isn't a thing. Sorry if this rambled. I've been drinking.
- Victoro311

Agree with this saad got close to fair value. I think his Ufa value would be a little higher. I don't think you build a line around saad. I think he's a guy your pair with a star. He compares with Lucic, laad, Ericsson who all got 6 this year. That being said if he was actually Ufa at 22 I would pay a premium to him over those 3 guys. Simple fact all those guys are risky on the back end of their contract. So if those guys are worth 6 then I could see saad Ufa price as high as 7.5 since their production is the same now but those guys are likely to decline while saad will be in his prime.

Agree on monahan. Not sure if he's tracking into an elite center but he definitely looks like a guy who will be an 8-15 center. True Ufa 1c are rare. If he was Ufa and signed himself to highest bidder I think he would have a lot of 7.5 offers and some a good bit more.

ROR is another guy who got pretty close to fair value. 7.5 per year. I think he's a low end 1c and very good 2c. I think he would get more Ufa but not much. But Ufa deals are always going to seem expensive because the current system is designed to make it difficult to build a team that way. Fwiw only Rfa deals are used as comps for arbitration.

My 11 year old nephew picked a better, more likely team than you did Ryan your team is ridiculous.

I imagine JR has been hoping that someone will call him with a convincing offer for Fleury, but actually getting offers for Murray. I see the reason behind keeping Fleury for now though: (1) As certain as we are that Murray isn't a one-hit wonder, it doesn't hurt to keep Flower around until Murray has at least had half a season in the NHL under his belt and (2) Fleury is a good goaltender and will only increase his value playing behind a good team.

We'll be able to at least shed Fleury, even if we don't get much of anything in return. If JR isn't getting calls that are better than that, there's no harm keeping him around for a while in the hope that someone does.
- cygnus41

I may be the only one but I think JR did well not dealing Fleury for peanuts. The Pens weren't/aren't in cap trouble, we are bringing back the same team that just won the cup minus Lovejoy which we can easily compensate for.
There are a handful of teams that could very easily come begging for a goalie like Fleury. Season ending injuries happen all the time, losing Price last year ended Montreal's season, teams like St Louis, LA, Anaheim, SJ have diminishing windows if their starter goes down for the season they'll be interested.
Calgary gambled on Elliot, if he craps the bed out of the gate they may come calling, Dallas' goalie situation is a mess, they may be taking the wait and hope approach but if things look bad early they'll look to make a deal.

And what about the Pens, what if Murray takes a step back, what if he doesnt figure out that weak glove side? What if he gets injured? What if Fleury comes into this year and is just plain better than Murray?

We have nothing to lose by taking the wait and see approach going into the season.

Much rather trade you and your garbage opinions to Las Vegas.
- j.boyd919

My opinions are more like facts.

He can remove all the obvious teams to be traded to - Dallas etc. He can put us in a situation where we trade Fleury for a different goalie without a nmc clause. We will still have options, but not really a good trade partner. fwiw their are 20 goalies paid over 4.5 million per year. Fleury can put us in a spot where our only real choice is to flip him for another highly paid goalie who we would be able to expose to the expansion draft. Fleury's better than a lot of those guys so a deal should be possible goiong that route. But as far as the NTC i'd block all the most obvious trade partners if I were fleury. Not necessarily because i'm refusing to be traded, but so I gain some control over the process.
- sditulli

Fleury does have control as far as where he will play this season and next. He does not have control in how much he will play this season. Sullivan has to pleased with Murray and is going to give him every chance to win the number one job. Do you really think that MAF is going to be happy in a backup roll? At his age, if he is now turned into a backup that his next and last big chance to cash in isn't going to reflect that?

Fleury does have control as far as where he will play this season and next. He does not have control in how much he will play this season. Sullivan has to pleased with Murray and is going to give him every chance to win the number one job. Do you really think that MAF is going to be happy in a backup roll? At his age, if he is now turned into a backup that his next and last big chance to cash in isn't going to reflect that?
- Thunderbolt

Well the idea is that MAF can force us to lose Murray and become the undisputed starter next season, regardless of if he's a back up this year or not.

I imagine JR has been hoping that someone will call him with a convincing offer for Fleury, but actually getting offers for Murray. I see the reason behind keeping Fleury for now though: (1) As certain as we are that Murray isn't a one-hit wonder, it doesn't hurt to keep Flower around until Murray has at least had half a season in the NHL under his belt and (2) Fleury is a good goaltender and will only increase his value playing behind a good team.

We'll be able to at least shed Fleury, even if we don't get much of anything in return. If JR isn't getting calls that are better than that, there's no harm keeping him around for a while in the hope that someone does.
- cygnus41

I agree. Murray was a great AHL goalie and was very good (not great) in the playoffs last year. But you want to make sure he's not the next Patrick Lalime/Jim Carey. If he continues his top-level play, then you can basically give MAF away around the TDL and run with Murray/Jarry.

I agree. Murray was a great AHL goalie and was very good (not great) in the playoffs last year. But you want to make sure he's not the next Patrick Lalime/Jim Carey. If he continues his top-level play, then you can basically give MAF away around the TDL and run with Murray/Jarry.
- jmatchett383

*Use a mid round pick for a vet back up. I would not be confident at all in Jarry if Murray were to go down again. I Jarry long term, but kid needs to develop. He's not the savant Murray is.

Looks like the logo has been updated with the fourth Cup

50 days until our 50th anniversary season. pic.twitter.com/0CaoMtT3Hb

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) August 24, 2016

I may be the only one but I think JR did well not dealing Fleury for peanuts. The Pens weren't/aren't in cap trouble, we are bringing back the same team that just won the cup minus Lovejoy which we can easily compensate for.
There are a handful of teams that could very easily come begging for a goalie like Fleury. Season ending injuries happen all the time, losing Price last year ended Montreal's season, teams like St Louis, LA, Anaheim, SJ have diminishing windows if their starter goes down for the season they'll be interested.
Calgary gambled on Elliot, if he craps the bed out of the gate they may come calling, Dallas' goalie situation is a mess, they may be taking the wait and hope approach but if things look bad early they'll look to make a deal.

And what about the Pens, what if Murray takes a step back, what if he doesnt figure out that weak glove side? What if he gets injured? What if Fleury comes into this year and is just plain better than Murray?

We have nothing to lose by taking the wait and see approach going into the season.
- stackthepads

You're not the only one. Murray was outplayed by his counterpart in both the Bolt and SJ series. The kid looks like the real deal, but the league has been littered with one hit wonder goalies.

Everybody is drooling over the possible cap relief, but that cap relief won't help if Murray doesn't fix a couple things. (I'd say his glove is sub-par for the NHL)

It wouldn't surprise me at all if MAF takes over the #1 by mid season.

You're not the only one. Murray was outplayed by his counterpart in both the Bolt and SJ series. The kid looks like the real deal, but the league has been littered with one hit wonder goalies.

Everybody is drooling over the possible cap relief, but that cap relief won't help if Murray doesn't fix a couple things. (I'd say his glove is sub-par for the NHL)

It wouldn't surprise me at all if MAF takes over the #1 by mid season.
- madmike71

It wouldn't surprise me if MAF starts as the #1...or they start pretty much 50/50.

*Use a mid round pick for a vet back up. I would not be confident at all in Jarry if Murray were to go down again. I Jarry long term, but kid needs to develop. He's not the savant Murray is.
- Victoro311

Fair point. Or, go shopping right now for an AHL guy like Kevin Poulin. Let him split starts in the AHL and be your emergency backup.

Well I was actually comparing what Kane and Benn got to what Tarasenko and Hall got. If you ask me, Saad actually got fare market value which I will admit was strange. I through Saad out as an example of when offersheets are actually an effective bargaining tool for the player, which is true because the Saad situation was the perfect storm for an offer sheet. But no, I do not think Saad is elite.

I do firmly believe Barkov and Monahan are tracking towards elite players. If you refuse to pay anone who's not established money you won't have a good team, and we see examples of this all throught the league. How many players get a 2-3 mil bridge deal who don't really deserve it just based off potential. This is the same concept. Tell me that a guy like Monahan who had ~30 goals ~60 points two years in a row at age 22 can't get a 7.5 mil contract in the open market. Voracek got that money as a RFA for being a lesser player than that his whole career and hitting PPG once. Granted yes, contract year, but who'd you rather have at 7.5v The 26 year old who was PPG in a contract year. Put up great stats in the lock out year where anything goes (see Tlusty) and besides that has just been a solid top 6 scorer, or a guy who had a pretty good rookie year and them put up 30 gs and 60 pts his sophomore and junior years on a bad possession team as a 22 year old?

If you never pay for upside, you're not going to go far.

Obviously this assumes that RFA isn't a thing. Sorry if this rambled. I've been drinking.
- Victoro311

The bell curve swings both ways though, if you start paying players on potential and where you think they will eventually be as a player then you will have a very difficult time filling out a competitive roster because you will have players producing at a top 50 level and getting paid at a top 10 level. I don't think this is a broad situation though and it really only applies to the top end of the players, the NHL has a hard cap and limited financial growth, there is only so much money to go around so there is a big difference between paying a player 2M-3M instead of 1M-1.5M on potential and paying a guy 8M-10M instead of 5M-6M on potential. It's just not financially possible for salaries to grow beyond the growth of the league and that's exactly what would be happening if every young potentially elite player like Monahan or Barkov got paid as elite before reaching that status. If every young player that showed elite potential started making 8M-10M/yr the league would bankrupt and cease to exist. While open market value sounds like it should be limitless it's still bound by the overall financial limits of the league and right now those limits restrict value to being, the top 10-20 players making 8M-10M/yr, the next 50-60 player making 5.5M-7M and the remainder making under 5M, until the financial growth of the league expands the values/salaries of the players can't expand.

Fleury does have control as far as where he will play this season and next. He does not have control in how much he will play this season. Sullivan has to pleased with Murray and is going to give him every chance to win the number one job. Do you really think that MAF is going to be happy in a backup roll? At his age, if he is now turned into a backup that his next and last big chance to cash in isn't going to reflect that?
- Thunderbolt

I agree that MAF has SOME control over where he plays this year and next but his control is very limited. There are 17 teams MAF could be traded to tomorrow that he has zero control over, sure that makes the situation more difficult and MAF can make it even tougher by making the list the least likely 17 teams possible but still at the end of the day if GMJR can make a deal with 1 of those 17 teams MAF will be playing somewhere else next season whether he wants to go or not. So while MAF has some say in the matter the control is still in the hands of GMJR and whether he can find what he feels is far value from 1 of those 17 teams.

Hudler is signing with the Stars... that team just has a sick offense.

I consider that as the number one back up plan. 10-20% probability.

I don't think fan base will care that much if we get good value. I think you construct a team with 4-5 key pieces. 2-3 forwards, 1-2 D, and a goalie. If we can flip Murray for a potential 1st line winger and maybe another asset then I'm interested. Something like nylander of Toronto as the center piece of a package. (Not saying Toronto is the ideal trade but in terms of asset a legit 1st line guy on elc). Tzkachuck could interesting me to. If we can't get a deal for fleury that is reasonable then I have no problem flipping him for an asset like that. Someone who has a realistic shot at becoming a forsberg level wing.
- sditulli

I think there's a far amount of rational fans that would understand the move if the return was right but I think the majority of the fans are irrational and will be disgusted by moving Murray regardless of the return because they're not capable of seeing the big picture. I'll go as far as to say I think there are even a handful of clueless fans that would be upset with a Murray for McDavid straight up trade.

Edit: I think RW is very close to being it that last group.

Hudler is signing with the Stars... that team just has a sick offense.
- nelson911

Now if they could only stop a puck occasionally...

Tried it myself...

Andrew Cogliano - Eric Staal - Wayne Simmonds
Pat Maroon - Anders Lee - Alex Killorn
Kyle Clifford - Tyler Bozak - Jay Beagle
Joakim Nordstrom - Joe Colborne - Eric Fehr

Tyler Myers - Marc Methot
David Savard - Ryan Ellis
Justin Braun - Dylan McIlrath

Roberto Luongo
Anton Khudobin

$65 million cap hit.

Tried it myself...

Andrew Cogliano - Eric Staal - Wayne Simmonds
Pat Maroon - Anders Lee - Alex Killorn
Kyle Clifford - Tyler Bozak - Jay Beagle
Joakim Nordstrom - Joe Colborne - Eric Fehr

Tyler Myers - Marc Methot
David Savard - Ryan Ellis
Justin Braun - Dylan McIlrath

Roberto Luongo
Anton Khudobin

$65 million cap hit.
- BINGO!

Seems crazy seeing Simmonds name there

Seems crazy seeing Simmonds name there
- dbell646

It does, but the alternative is that Philly doesn't have anything resembling a defense the next year.

The bell curve swings both ways though, if you start paying players on potential and where you think they will eventually be as a player then you will have a very difficult time filling out a competitive roster because you will have players producing at a top 50 level and getting paid at a top 10 level. I don't think this is a broad situation though and it really only applies to the top end of the players, the NHL has a hard cap and limited financial growth, there is only so much money to go around so there is a big difference between paying a player 2M-3M instead of 1M-1.5M on potential and paying a guy 8M-10M instead of 5M-6M on potential. It's just not financially possible for salaries to grow beyond the growth of the league and that's exactly what would be happening if every young potentially elite player like Monahan or Barkov got paid as elite before reaching that status. If every young player that showed elite potential started making 8M-10M/yr the league would bankrupt and cease to exist. While open market value sounds like it should be limitless it's still bound by the overall financial limits of the league and right now those limits restrict value to being, the top 10-20 players making 8M-10M/yr, the next 50-60 player making 5.5M-7M and the remainder making under 5M, until the financial growth of the league expands the values/salaries of the players can't expand.
- jaydogg1974

We are talking about taking risks/reward chances not just throwing out contracts. And it makes more sense to pay a guy more whose younger and on the upswing than to pay an equal player whose turned 30 and on the downswing. 6 years 6 per year for lucic is really 4 years 36 million....and we hope u can still walk on the back end.