This exercise completely devolved into a failure. Picking Carter Hutton as a 4th goalie and then not listing him on your final roster? At least admit your mistakes. Better luck next time.

This exercise completely devolved into a failure. Picking Carter Hutton as a 4th goalie and then not listing him on your final roster? At least admit your mistakes. Better luck next time.
- alcatrazhockey

Seattle 2034

I'm wondering how much longer people will keep talking about players being "cost-controlled" like it's some magical guarantee of a player being cheap/affordable. As we've seen time and time again, the only players that are truly cost-controlled by RFA status are middle of the road players or players who haven't quite broken out yet, if a player performs he is going to get paid regardless of his RFA status so being "cost-controlled" really isn't a good thing because it most likely means the player hasn't played as well as he could/should.

Was Sean Monahan cost-controlled when he just signed for 6.375M/year as an RFA, how about Saad(6M/year), Hamilton(5.75M/yr) or MacKinnon(6.3M/yr)? Were any of those players "cost-controlled" because they were RFAs? A players performance and potential are always going to be what controls a players cost, if the player plays great the are going to get paid, if they don't play great that what does cost-control matter.
- jaydogg1974

- Cost controlled
-Optimal
- Drives play
- bleeds
- Suppress


Jumble these phrases around a graph and you got something better than Tylenol PM

Ryan you honestly think Ottawa won't protect Cody Ceci.

This was a great blog series Ryan. I know you set out the rule in advance that you wouldn't account for trades, so it won't be completely accurate but it's a great starting point.

For sure Penguins will find a way to keep Murray. I'm going to take a look back and see which Leaf forwards you protected because they will not allow Bozak to walk for free.(I think u had Rychel in there...) But in all honesty he will be traded sometime before the deadline. He'll fetch a late first rounder and a B prospect or a couple of 2nd rounders and a B prospect.

Las Vegas is going to suck because of a lack of high end talent but they won't be getting blown out of games(like my Leafs in the last few seasons) because they have some quality players and decent depth.
- Njuice

LV will be more competitive than any of the more recent expansion franchises and its not close.

Yes of course, but Ryan said from the onset that he will ignore trades because he can't speculate them all. Pens must find a way to trade Fleury. Which means they won't get a goo return on a great goalie. Thems the breaks. Pens will keep Murray.
- Njuice

If the return for Fleury was a second round pick (I laugh at whoever values him as a first round pick) at this draft, his value won't be as high after this season because other teams will know if Fleury isn't moved, they lose a dynamite young goalie who has won a Cup. The time to deal Fleury was prior to this draft.

There is NO way Murray will be left for Vegas. Pittsburgh would be absolutely foolish to do so. MAF ain't the good or reliable to let that happen. You do not let that happen if you are a smart organization. How stupid are you for suggesting it. Let MAF go and say goodbye good luck and good news tomorrow

If the return for Fleury was a second round pick (I laugh at whoever values him as a first round pick) at this draft, his value won't be as high after this season because other teams will know if Fleury isn't moved, they lose a dynamite young goalie who has won a Cup. The time to deal Fleury was prior to this draft.
- Oneonta Penguin

At this stage I think JR is playing chicken. If other teams want either Murray or Fleury they will have to pay because if not 1 goes to Vegas - Flower can go if he chooses to drop his NMC.

Now if you're a GM & think you'll be getting a good deal & JR throws rejections your way if the deal is low what are you going to do? Are you going to let the opportunity to get a good/great goalie go? Or will you up your offer & have a seat at the table?

Fun idea, thanks I enjoyed reading the series but as other have said I think you are off on some of your predictions of which players would be available.

My mock roster fwiw.

Killhorn Perreault Atkinson
Beleskey Coyle Rodin
Lee Pageau Bennett
Roussel Richardson Maroon

Cousins, Danault, Hartman, Di Giuseppe, Stephenson


Bouwmeester Green
Jokipakka Ekholm
Dillon Despres

Mcllrath, Forbot, Pysyk, Carrick


Murray
Picard
Ullmark

At this stage I think JR is playing chicken. If other teams want either Murray or Fleury they will have to pay because if not 1 goes to Vegas - Flower can go if he chooses to drop his NMC.

Now if you're a GM & think you'll be getting a good deal & JR throws rejections your way if the deal is low what are you going to do? Are you going to let the opportunity to get a good/great goalie go? Or will you up your offer & have a seat at the table?
- Aussiepenguin

I dont think he was playing chicken as much as he has the ability to play another season with good depth at goaltender to compete for another championship. It could lessen the return once they HAVE to trade one of them in the offseason, but at this point it is clear it was not worth whatever he was offered

I dont think he was playing chicken as much as he has the ability to play another season with good depth at goaltender to compete for another championship. It could lessen the return once they HAVE to trade one of them in the offseason, but at this point it is clear it was not worth whatever he was offered
- YuenglingJagr

The term 'chicken' is just that a term. At the end of the day something has to be done & unless he wants to give 1 of the 2 away, there will have to be some 'stern' negotiating to a point where I believe he may accept losing 1 to Vegas for free. Unless he has that resolve then other teams will take advantage - I would if I were in their place. The only way I see JR getting a good return is if other GM's see that - hence its a type of chicken just no cars involved.

Even if they find a way to keep both through the year, there's no way we have both once Murray signs his next deal. So there's another ball in the air - regardless of Vegas, the Pens just won't have the cap space to have Murray on a new deal & Flower on his 5m. 1 must go.

@jaydogg's bit about cost controlled players.

SThat's a really ticky tack argument that ignores relativity. The fact that RFA's can only negotiate with one team really does bring down their cost from what they would have gotten on a free market. Basically, the team with the rights just needs to give them the cheapest possible short term deal that the player will take before deciding its more worth it to hold out (very low threshold), or entice them with just enough dollars that they agree to a very team friendly long term contract. Examples:

Tarasenko is currently making 7.5 mil. Yes, isolated he is being paid like a top tier player, but he is arguably a top three wing in the NHL. He would make Patrick Kane money on the open market.

Aleksander Barkov is currently making 5.9 mil. He signed that this offseason where he is now officially tracking as a premier two way center in this league. That's worth several mil more than ~6 mil.

Aaron Ekblad is making 7.5 mil long term in a league where PK Subban and his 9 mil contract has set the UFA market price for #1 d men. That's a nice price tag for a guy that should be as good as Subban within the next two years.

Corey Schneider is making 6 mil a year. Lolz.

You can't just look at cap hits and say "Well this guy is being paid handsomely so he's not cost controlled." Everything is relative.

So yes. I would say that Monahan and McKinnon were certainly cost controlled. A 21 year old 1C who scores 30 goals and 60 points is gonna get 7.5 mil + on the free market. McKinnon is even younger and better, but the terrible situation in Colorado has hampered him. He still has the potential to be almost as good as Sidney Crosby and teams would trip over themselves to purchase a franchise center for no additional assets.

If it wasn't for restricted free agency, you would really start to see massive contracts go out to young top end talent as mediocre teams would try to acquire quick fix franchise corner stones that will be there for a decade through free agency instead of the grooling draft and development process which can take years and is a crap shoot.

Why even put Murray though? At very worst case scenario he's traded at deadline. However I personally will be real disappointed if Fleury is a Penguin after the year... We don't win without Murray period.!!!!
- lloyd095

Wilson was very clear about the parameters of this thought exercise. He's not speculating possible trades and is just going off the book where teams stand right now. If you start talking about trades poop gets too muddled and subjective and there's too many possible universes to have a real debate.

Fun idea, thanks I enjoyed reading the series but as other have said I think you are off on some of your predictions of which players would be available.

My mock roster fwiw.

Killhorn Perreault Atkinson
Beleskey Coyle Rodin
Lee Pageau Bennett
Roussel Richardson Maroon

Cousins, Danault, Hartman, Di Giuseppe, Stephenson


Bouwmeester Green
Jokipakka Ekholm
Dillon Despres

Mcllrath, Forbot, Pysyk, Carrick


Murray
Picard
Ullmark
- belcherbd

That's really not a bad building block for Vegas.

@jaydogg's bit about cost controlled players.

SThat's a really ticky tack argument that ignores relativity. The fact that RFA's can only negotiate with one team really does bring down their cost from what they would have gotten on a free market. Basically, the team with the rights just needs to give them the cheapest possible short term deal that the player will take before deciding its more worth it to hold out (very low threshold), or entice them with just enough dollars that they agree to a very team friendly long term contract. Examples:

Tarasenko is currently making 7.5 mil. Yes, isolated he is being paid like a top tier player, but he is arguably a top three wing in the NHL. He would make Patrick Kane money on the open market.

Aleksander Barkov is currently making 5.9 mil. He signed that this offseason where he is now officially tracking as a premier two way center in this league. That's worth several mil more than ~6 mil.

Aaron Ekblad is making 7.5 mil long term in a league where PK Subban and his 9 mil contract has set the UFA market price for #1 d men. That's a nice price tag for a guy that should be as good as Subban within the next two years.

Corey Schneider is making 6 mil a year. Lolz.

You can't just look at cap hits and say "Well this guy is being paid handsomely so he's not cost controlled." Everything is relative.

So yes. I would say that Monahan and McKinnon were certainly cost controlled. A 21 year old 1C who scores 30 goals and 60 points is gonna get 7.5 mil + on the free market. McKinnon is even younger and better, but the terrible situation in Colorado has hampered him. He still has the potential to be almost as good as Sidney Crosby and teams would trip over themselves to purchase a franchise center for no additional assets.

If it wasn't for restricted free agency, you would really start to see massive contracts go out to young top end talent as mediocre teams would try to acquire quick fix franchise corner stones that will be there for a decade through free agency instead of the grooling draft and development process which can take years and is a crap shoot.
- Victoro311

Schneider is a stud, what's so funny about that one?

Schneider is a stud, what's so funny about that one?
- j.boyd919

That's why I was laughing. He's one of the few goalies in the league that deserve to get paid and he's making the same as Craig Anderson.

Fun idea, thanks I enjoyed reading the series but as other have said I think you are off on some of your predictions of which players would be available.

My mock roster fwiw.

Killhorn Perreault Atkinson
Beleskey Coyle Rodin
Lee Pageau Bennett
Roussel Richardson Maroon

Cousins, Danault, Hartman, Di Giuseppe, Stephenson


Bouwmeester Green
Jokipakka Ekholm
Dillon Despres

Mcllrath, Forbot, Pysyk, Carrick


Murray
Picard
Ullmark
- belcherbd

Think bouwmeester has to be protected.

@jaydogg's bit about cost controlled players.

SThat's a really ticky tack argument that ignores relativity. The fact that RFA's can only negotiate with one team really does bring down their cost from what they would have gotten on a free market. Basically, the team with the rights just needs to give them the cheapest possible short term deal that the player will take before deciding its more worth it to hold out (very low threshold), or entice them with just enough dollars that they agree to a very team friendly long term contract. Examples:

Tarasenko is currently making 7.5 mil. Yes, isolated he is being paid like a top tier player, but he is arguably a top three wing in the NHL. He would make Patrick Kane money on the open market.

Aleksander Barkov is currently making 5.9 mil. He signed that this offseason where he is now officially tracking as a premier two way center in this league. That's worth several mil more than ~6 mil.

Aaron Ekblad is making 7.5 mil long term in a league where PK Subban and his 9 mil contract has set the UFA market price for #1 d men. That's a nice price tag for a guy that should be as good as Subban within the next two years.

Corey Schneider is making 6 mil a year. Lolz.

You can't just look at cap hits and say "Well this guy is being paid handsomely so he's not cost controlled." Everything is relative.

So yes. I would say that Monahan and McKinnon were certainly cost controlled. A 21 year old 1C who scores 30 goals and 60 points is gonna get 7.5 mil + on the free market. McKinnon is even younger and better, but the terrible situation in Colorado has hampered him. He still has the potential to be almost as good as Sidney Crosby and teams would trip over themselves to purchase a franchise center for no additional assets.

If it wasn't for restricted free agency, you would really start to see massive contracts go out to young top end talent as mediocre teams would try to acquire quick fix franchise corner stones that will be there for a decade through free agency instead of the grooling draft and development process which can take years and is a crap shoot.
- Victoro311

To add-on we haven't really seen a true franchise guy get a Ufa contract. Too much inventive for team and player to get the deal done soon so the team saves money and the player removes injury risks.

I think ok subban would be talking 10.5 or more as a Ufa. You can't just go out and get franchise dmen so his contract would be silly if he simply focused on highest bidder.

If we didn't have rfa salaries would be about the same. But you would see a difference in who gets paid. Less money for older side pieces like lucic and more money for young core building block guys. We would still have a cap so it changes who gets paid more than how much.

Fun idea, thanks I enjoyed reading the series but as other have said I think you are off on some of your predictions of which players would be available.

My mock roster fwiw.

Killhorn Perreault Atkinson
Beleskey Coyle Rodin
Lee Pageau Bennett
Roussel Richardson Maroon

Cousins, Danault, Hartman, Di Giuseppe, Stephenson


Bouwmeester Green
Jokipakka Ekholm
Dillon Despres

Mcllrath, Forbot, Pysyk, Carrick


Murray
Picard
Ullmark
- belcherbd

No chance at all he's left available.

Think bouwmeester has to be protected.
- Gerk

He isn't listed on General Fanager as a must protect, unless you just mean in your opinion.

I was going to rip on you for saying Matt Murray but then I realized you were the Pens blogger.

No chance at all he's left available.
- MaximumBone

I like Ekholm but I think he is also a product of the system. I do think they only protect 3 D though and I went with Ellis but I could easily see Ekholm being protected over him.

They can afford to lose a top 4 D over a a top 6 forward IMO.

That's really not a bad building block for Vegas.
- Victoro311

Yeah, I wasn't so sure that they would have decent team until I started going through the whole list.

They likely won't get any superstars unless a team is really desperate to shed some space but they should get a collection of decent young players.

Fun idea, thanks I enjoyed reading the series but as other have said I think you are off on some of your predictions of which players would be available.

My mock roster fwiw.

Killhorn Perreault Atkinson
Beleskey Coyle Rodin
Lee Pageau Bennett
Roussel Richardson Maroon

Cousins, Danault, Hartman, Di Giuseppe, Stephenson


Bouwmeester Green
Jokipakka Ekholm
Dillon Despres

Mcllrath, Forbot, Pysyk, Carrick


Murray
Picard
Ullmark
- belcherbd

Di Giuseppe will be protected.

No chance at all he's left available.
- MaximumBone

Agree. The kid is young, very good and is on a great contract at 3.75 for the next six years. No chance he is left unprotected.