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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Development Expectations and the Value of Depth
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wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Aug 16 @ 3:32 PM ET
Luke Schenn is a serviceable NHL caliber defenseman. I understand what you mean by saying he didn't "pan out" when you talk about his projection as a top pair shutdown defenseman like Adam Foote. That was unfair from the very start. And I don't think he ever recovered from those lofty expectations.


He is the poster child for how NOT to develop a high end draft pick.

- MBFlyerfan


I agree, Luke is an NHL defenseman, he just soured while on the Flyers because of what was given up to get him. Hopefully he does well with the Yotes. I just used him and Gagner because they were picked 5 and 6 respectively in the 1st round.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Aug 16 @ 3:33 PM ET
Maybe the show's creator gave him a rare faberge egg, or possibly a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle rookie, in exchange for a bit role in the show.
- jmatchett383


All possible. Or the creator has purposely casted him to throw the viewers, such as myself, off when recognized.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Aug 16 @ 3:43 PM ET
My problem with this whole ceiling concept is that it's fabricated. There's no ceiling be it a high one or a low one. It's based on a wild guess making comparisons to past players of similar abilities at the same level. Every player is an individual. Anything can derail a young players future.

There's every possibility that a player excelling in 2014 at the same position on the same team and in the same league as a dozen other players in the past who all achieved some level of NHL success beyond third line/third pair just doesn't have the mental make up to continue progressing to the pro level. So he never achieved his "ceiling" because his ceiling was actually being a tremendous junior player and decent minor pro. But this players a failure because some former hockey player and his peers decided this kid was going to be a top six NHL forward when he was 17.

You can't go back to know if different paths actually do make a difference. Your stuck with the one that's given you. It's all educated guess work (and not all that educated). Saying someone failed because they were rushed to the next level is just as much guess work as someone saying they never made the show because they were never given a fair shot or spent so much time in the minors that they became a cast off.

- mayorofangrytown


Agreed. I go back to Bill's article the other day about Clarke, how he wasn't the fastest, the biggest, or the strongest, but he never took a shift off, a game off, he played for teammates, and he was never going to be out-worked. To me, that speaks of will. Some players have it - will and determination - others don't.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Aug 16 @ 3:43 PM ET
The stepdad. I've thought this from first time we saw his character solely on the fact the actor that plays him (Paul Sparks) is too big of an actor to not have a role in this crime. He wouldn't just be a stepdad with minimal impact for a role imo.
- arichardson22



Max Von Sydow says hi.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Aug 16 @ 3:46 PM ET
I agree, Luke is an NHL defenseman, he just soured while on the Flyers because of what was given up to get him. Hopefully he does well with the Yotes. I just used him and Gagner because they were picked 5 and 6 respectively in the 1st round.
- wolfhounds


Gagner to me is even worse because he just doesn't do anything that well. Its like Peter White syndrome. He has reached the level of his dominance, and that level was in juniors.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Aug 16 @ 3:51 PM ET
Max Von Sydow says hi.
- MBFlyerfan


Don't you mean Hallå?
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 16 @ 3:53 PM ET
Gagner to me is even worse because he just doesn't do anything that well. Its like Peter White syndrome. He has reached the level of his dominance, and that level was in juniors.
- MBFlyerfan


YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 4:02 PM ET
Agreed. I go back to Bill's article the other day about Clarke, how he wasn't the fastest, the biggest, or the strongest, but he never took a shift off, a game off, he played for teammates, and he was never going to be out-worked. To me, that speaks of will. Some players have it - will and determination - others don't.
- wolfhounds


Is there a recipe? or a breakdown of what percentage of each someone needs? I am thinking it is like 10% luck, at least 20% skill, and I think you hit on it in your post...15% is just concentrated power of will

that still leaves another 55% and I dont know if we will ever figure out that part
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 4:05 PM ET
Is there a recipe? or a breakdown of what percentage of each someone needs? I am thinking it is like 10% luck, at least 20% skill, and I think you hit on it in your post...15% is just concentrated power of will

that still leaves another 55% and I dont know if we will ever figure out that part

- YuenglingJagr


3.8% is based on the amount of hockey bunny "encounters" you had before being drafted.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 4:05 PM ET
3.8% is based on the amount of hockey bunny "encounters" you had before being drafted.
- jmatchett383


and how many you videotaped?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 4:20 PM ET
and how many you videotaped?
- YuenglingJagr


No, that's simply used in the qvt/60 (quality video tapes per 60 tapes) rating kept by War On Ice
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 4:32 PM ET
No, that's simply used in the qvt/60 (quality video tapes per 60 tapes) rating kept by War On Ice
- jmatchett383

all these fancy stats...hard to keep track

either way these are still amateur videos and nothing like the professional ones the NHL teams use
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Aug 16 @ 4:36 PM ET
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 24m24 minutes ago

I believe the Pittsburgh Penguins will meet with Jimmy Vesey today.

Anyone know when the Flyers are meeting with him?

- PLindbergh31

After Gudas creams him when we play the Bruins.
Tomfan365
Joined: 03.11.2013

Aug 16 @ 4:39 PM ET
I didn't reveal anything with the stepdad or any details, as the show itself hasn't showcased much of him other than the confirming of the daughters body but I apologize if I did so. I've been pleasently surprised. I was under the assumption it was going to be more focused on investigation side of things and detective work only, but have really enjoyed that the show went into showing his experiences in prison and how his character is changing, or revealing perhaps(?), While in jail. Fun fact: the actor who plays Nas supposedly has been an active rapper the past decade.
- arichardson22


I like it but have no idea how they're going to wrap it up in 2 episodes. They finally started investigating other possibilities. Him in jail has been cool but his character confuses me and I want more of the cops/lawyers figuring out the truth. I just don't get how it's going to wrap up and either make sense or have a crazy plot twist since they haven't really set anything up.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Aug 16 @ 4:47 PM ET
I like it but have no idea how they're going to wrap it up in 2 episodes. They finally started investigating other possibilities. Him in jail has been cool but his character confuses me and I want more of the cops/lawyers figuring out the truth. I just don't get how it's going to wrap up and either make sense or have a crazy plot twist since they haven't really set anything up.
- Tomfan365


Good point. I think the first episode was an extended one so maybe the finale will have an extended episode too. But still, little time to fully paint this big picture. There def is still a lot to be explained. I haven't read or seen anything about a season 2 either or if they intended on just doing a sole season. His character has played tug of war with me; the show has a done a good job on portraying whether jail is turning Nas into this other being or if this other side is who he really is.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Aug 16 @ 4:56 PM ET
No, that's simply used in the qvt/60 (quality video tapes per 60 tapes) rating kept by War On Ice
- jmatchett383


False. Site shut down. One creator works for the Wild now and another for the Pens, I believe. Fancy that.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Aug 16 @ 4:58 PM ET
After Gudas creams him when we play the Bruins.
- 2Real


I like it when you talk dirty
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 4:59 PM ET
Good point. I think the first episode was an extended one so maybe the finale will have an extended episode too. But still, little time to fully paint this big picture. There def is still a lot to be explained. I haven't read or seen anything about a season 2 either or if they intended on just doing a sole season. His character has played tug of war with me; the show has a done a good job on portraying whether jail is turning Nas into this other being or if this other side is who he really is.
- arichardson22


I have never seen an episode, but here's what I see happening:

He did it, and he's always been a serial killer. After letting the cops/lawyers suffer, he'll laugh at their feeble attempts to figure out the truth, and admit that he has killed well over 600 people. He will be tried, acquitted on a hung jury, and set free whereupon he will murder another 5 people in broad daylight before being shot down by a local police officer who will need years of therapy to recover from having to discharge his weapon.

Unless M. Night Shyamalan gets involved, in which case, he is the dead girl, and some wacky poop went down.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 5:01 PM ET
False. Site shut down. One creator works for the Wild now and another for the Pens, I believe. Fancy that.
- Mononoke


I don't know, I can't keep track of this week's wacky stat fad sites. It's War on Ice, or HighPercentageScoringChancesPer60.com or ShotDifferentialsByTheFoot.com or whatever. All I know is, 3.8% of a player's development is directly based on the amount of puck bunnies he hammered before being drafted.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 5:05 PM ET
I don't know, I can't keep track of this week's wacky stat fad sites. It's War on Ice, or HighPercentageScoringChancesPer60.com or ShotDifferentialsByTheFoot.com or whatever. All I know is, 3.8% of a player's development is directly based on the amount of puck bunnies he hammered before being drafted.
- jmatchett383


That must be the main reason for McDavid being ranked above Eichel...welcome to Buffalo, ya ging
KINGKENZO
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: OMAR COMIN'..Head or Gut?.....Watching regular white people
Joined: 01.10.2008

Aug 16 @ 5:58 PM ET
Anyone watching "The Night Of" right now?
- YuenglingJagr

It needs to wrap up
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 16 @ 6:25 PM ET
I don't know, I can't keep track of this week's wacky stat fad sites. It's War on Ice, or HighPercentageScoringChancesPer60.com or ShotDifferentialsByTheFoot.com or whatever. All I know is, 3.8% of a player's development is directly based on the amount of puck bunnies he hammered before being drafted.
- jmatchett383


One would expect that rate to increase, once turning pro! I'd also like to see a Qual/Rel stat on the puck bunnies.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Aug 16 @ 7:17 PM ET
Settle down Veruca
- dragonoffrost


He can't
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Aug 16 @ 7:28 PM ET
He can't
- ob18

glad to see your ban has ended sir
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Aug 16 @ 9:14 PM ET
glad to see your ban has ended sir
- Crimsoninja


You two are HB's cutest couple
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