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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Development Expectations and the Value of Depth
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 16 @ 1:58 PM ET
It doesn't make any sense to limit what a player can be prior to seeing him play at the highest level. Let's see Morin in the NHL for a year or two, at the very least, before raising or lowering our expectations and his apparent ceiling.

Saying what level he can't attain before he gets a few seasons of NHL hockey under his belt is just as silly as setting the bar too high. Of course, one is the more practical approach, but it still all boils down to trying to predict the future.

We've all seen top 1st round picks (L Schenn, Gagner, etc.) who haven't panned out, and 2nd and 3rd round picks who've turned into stars, so for me, I'm going to wait to see what Morin does in the next few seasons (hopefully) before placing limits on what he can become.

edit: this, to me, goes for all top prospects, not just Morin.

- wolfhounds


Bill isn't limiting the player, nor saying he can't attain any level. Simply stating to manage expectations.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Aug 16 @ 1:58 PM ET
Luke Schenn is a serviceable NHL caliber defenseman. I understand what you mean by saying he didn't "pan out" when you talk about his projection as a top pair shutdown defenseman like Adam Foote. That was unfair from the very start. And I don't think he ever recovered from those lofty expectations.


He is the poster child for how NOT to develop a high end draft pick.

- MBFlyerfan

Maybe they did everything right and he was just never going to be that good.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 2:05 PM ET
Maybe they did everything right and he was just never going to be that good.
- mayorofangrytown


I think Luke Schenn was always going to be limited by his speed...he came at a time where the NHL changed and it became quicker and harder for bigger, slower defensemen. more development at lower levels may have helped him become smarter and more effecient to make up for speed
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Aug 16 @ 2:05 PM ET
Maybe they did everything right and he was just never going to be that good.
- mayorofangrytown

Schenn is a goof.

Hockey IQ isn't up there. Slow. Hard shot but takes forever for him to get it off. No creativity in his transition game.

He's a 3rd pairing guy at best. Glad to be rid of him.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Aug 16 @ 2:09 PM ET
I wasn't just eluding to Veasey.

I know the money is the same right now.

I think Lyons was smart coming to Philly as I am not sure Stolarz is the future franchise goalie. hell he could get beaten out in the AHL this year by Lyon.

- J35Bacher

Alluding
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 2:09 PM ET
Alluding
- Giroux_Is_God


cowboys fan
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Aug 16 @ 2:11 PM ET
cowboys fan
- YuenglingJagr

I Wonder what he would be willing to elude onto Vesey
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Aug 16 @ 2:11 PM ET
I think Luke Schenn was always going to be limited by his speed...he came at a time where the NHL changed and it became quicker and harder for bigger, slower defensemen. more development at lower levels may have helped him become smarter and more effecient to make up for speed
- YuenglingJagr

He's still an NHL player. You're right, his foot speed is a major hindrance. I'm not sure any manner of development was going to over come that. They paired him with Phanuef and he just couldn't keep up. They knew what he was by the time they traded him.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Aug 16 @ 2:17 PM ET
Maybe they did everything right and he was just never going to be that good.
- mayorofangrytown



Well, I will agree that he was never going to be that good.

I think in his case they let the unfair expectations compound the bad decisions. Bringing him in to the league at 18, comparing him to Adam Foote, drafting him 5th overall. He was never going to live up to that.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Aug 16 @ 2:19 PM ET
Really cool short documentary about a hockey team in the mountains of India. Worth the watch.

J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Aug 16 @ 2:20 PM ET
Anyone watching "The Night Of" right now?
- YuenglingJagr



Yeah.

Who do you think it is?

I am actually thinking he might have done it.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 2:24 PM ET
My problem with this whole ceiling concept is that it's fabricated. There's no ceiling be it a high one or a low one. It's based on a wild guess making comparisons to past players of similar abilities at the same level. Every player is an individual. Anything can derail a young players future.
- mayorofangrytown


I don't know, I think Ryan Pilon reached about the lowest ceiling you could come up with. I don't know what can be lower than "Not ever playing a game again."
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Aug 16 @ 2:31 PM ET
I don't know, I think Ryan Pilon reached about the lowest ceiling you could come up with. I don't know what can be lower than "Not ever playing a game again."
- jmatchett383

Yep. But I'm sure no one said his ceiling was that prior to it being a fact.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 16 @ 2:42 PM ET
Well, I will agree that he was never going to be that good.

I think in his case they let the unfair expectations compound the bad decisions. Bringing him in to the league at 18, comparing him to Adam Foote, drafting him 5th overall. He was never going to live up to that.

- MBFlyerfan



Something led him to be the 5th overall pick though. I agree with those who state that we can never know for a fact that bringing him up early hurt him, but I think it did. Which is just an opinion. I think he had the ability to be better than he became, but he just never took the next step. His lack of quickness meant that his positioning and reads needed to be top notch. In this league, making an outside turn versus an inside turn means you're beaten. He never had the quickness to make up for that, and he sometimes took himself out of position. When he played at his best, he was capable of playing well, but just could never get any consistency.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Aug 16 @ 2:42 PM ET
Yeah.

Who do you think it is?

I am actually thinking he might have done it.

- J35Bacher


It was the cat or the pharmacist. Or they were working together. You heard it here.
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

Aug 16 @ 2:44 PM ET
When is this diva, Vesey, going to pick a team?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 2:47 PM ET
Yep. But I'm sure no one said his ceiling was that prior to it being a fact.
- mayorofangrytown


No, but I'd say that's the lowest ceiling you can have. So if you want to set one, I think that's it. Also, I think "legendary HHOFer" is a realistic high ceiling, as well.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 2:56 PM ET
No, but I'd say that's the lowest ceiling you can have. So if you want to set one, I think that's it. Also, I think "legendary HHOFer" is a realistic high ceiling, as well.
- jmatchett383


The Pilon to McDavid scale
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 2:59 PM ET
The Pilon to McDavid scale
- YuenglingJagr


Pretty much.
McKenzie: "You know, there's been a lot of buzz about Nolan Patrick."
Pierre: "Absolutely, and it's well-deserved. At the absolute worst, he'll either die and/or never play another game of hockey, and at best, he'll be better than Bobby Orr."
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Aug 16 @ 3:03 PM ET
Pretty much.
McKenzie: "You know, there's been a lot of buzz about Nolan Patrick."
Pierre: "Absolutely, and it's well-deserved. At the absolute worst, he'll either die and/or never play another game of hockey, and at best, he'll be better than Bobby Orr."

- jmatchett383

·_·
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

Aug 16 @ 3:10 PM ET
When is this diva, Vesey, going to pick a team?
- aightwebang17

After he talks to all the interested teams he wants to hear from. He couldn't hear from them until today so figure around the weekend like his agent said.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Aug 16 @ 3:10 PM ET
Yeah.

Who do you think it is?

I am actually thinking he might have done it.

- J35Bacher


The stepdad. I've thought this from first time we saw his character solely on the fact the actor that plays him (Paul Sparks) is too big of an actor to not have a role in this crime. He wouldn't just be a stepdad with minimal impact for a role imo.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 16 @ 3:12 PM ET
The stepdad. I've thought this from first time we saw his character solely on the fact the actor that plays him (Paul Sparks) is too big of an actor to not have a role in this crime. He wouldn't just be a stepdad with minimal impact for a role imo.
- arichardson22


Maybe the show's creator gave him a rare faberge egg, or possibly a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle rookie, in exchange for a bit role in the show.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Aug 16 @ 3:24 PM ET
I've thought this from first time we saw his character solely on the fact the actor imo.
- arichardson22


this is a little spoilerish for me...i really just wanted to know if people were enjoying the show as much as I have...I thought it would be a bit more about getting convicted and how that process unfolds than it is shaping up to be...but still very interesting

John Turturro is fantastic
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Aug 16 @ 3:31 PM ET
this is a little spoilerish for me...i really just wanted to know if people were enjoying the show as much as I have...I thought it would be a bit more about getting convicted and how that process unfolds than it is shaping up to be...but still very interesting

John Turturro is fantastic

- YuenglingJagr


I didn't reveal anything with the stepdad or any details, as the show itself hasn't showcased much of him other than the confirming of the daughters body but I apologize if I did so. I've been pleasently surprised. I was under the assumption it was going to be more focused on investigation side of things and detective work only, but have really enjoyed that the show went into showing his experiences in prison and how his character is changing, or revealing perhaps(?), While in jail. Fun fact: the actor who plays Nas supposedly has been an active rapper the past decade.
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