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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Whither Vesey?
Author Message
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 17 @ 12:50 PM ET
I will break this down

Team | 19 Available | Local to Bean Town | Intangible
Bruins | Yes | Really? Yes | Local and a Hayes
Red Wings | Nope | Close enough | None
Toronto | Maybe | Same as Red Wings | Family plays there
Blackhawks | No Chance | Further than the rest | Play with 19 or 88
Penguins | Yes | Still a Flight | Sid the Kid

We can go on for ever debating this. The local reason is just an excuse - his brother has to commute. And frankly where will his mind be on the circus trip - home sick?

If JV is getting advise from the Hayes brothers he may be in trouble, I Predict both will be out of the league before they are 30... and abundantly average!

IT comes down to getting number 19. Red Wings would terrorize this kid if he insisted Yzermans number came out of retirement. Likewise Taser is not giving up his sweater for a 3rd liner who he will make statistically better.

All this BS drama is an excuse to choose the Bruins.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:51 PM ET
I will break this down

Team 19 Available Local to Bean Town Intangible
Bruins Yes Really? Yes Local and a Hayes
Red Wings Nope Close enough None
Toronto Maybe Same as Red Wings Family plays there
Blackhawks No Chance Further than the rest Play with 19 or 88
Penguins Yes Still a Flight Sid the Kid

We can go on for ever debating this. The local reason is just an excuse - his brother has to commute. And frankly where will his mind be on the circus trip - home sick?

If JV is getting advise from the Hayes brothers he may be in trouble, I Predict both will be out of the league before they are 30... and abundantly average!

IT comes down to getting number 19. Red Wings would terrorize this kid if he insisted Yzermans number came out of retirement. Likewise Taser is not giving up his sweater for a 3rd liner who he will make statistically better.

All this BS drama is an excuse to choose the Bruins.

- riozzo



And this = Hudler!!!!!!!!!
Fistafury17
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wauconda, IL
Joined: 06.23.2010

Aug 17 @ 12:51 PM ET
Except he probably would've made the Hawks and contributed...............
- vabeachbear



Hard to say

The Hawks may have tried KH at LW and had it not worked out...
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Aug 17 @ 12:52 PM ET
Something that just came to mind--- Kane is the perfect person to talk with Vesey--- he can not only discuss the journey as a US born player-- but also illustrate the total support that the Hawks organization has given him through many rough waters-- allowing him to develop and grow up while making some poor decisions-- and Kane elevated his game to MVP after what appeared to be the rock bottom moment in his life last summer--

That dedication from team to player is admirable--- THEN you have the rest of the selling points---the Cups, HOF players and city of Chicago-- fan base etc to discuss--

Whatever happens--- Hawks will be fine-- maybe better with Vesey-- maybe not as we don't know what he can deliver-- or how he will fit with the hawks core--
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Aug 17 @ 12:54 PM ET
Hayes would have played RW on the first and third lines last year and likely have made TT expendable for either Hamhuis or Drouin at the deadline. That much closer to a cup. I still think Kevin Hayes didn't like the Blackhawks trading his brother and decided playing on the east coast suited him more. The Blackhawks lost an asset when he left as a FA but it isn't the end of the world. I don't blame Hayes for making the choice he did but I don't think it was necessarily the best for his development or career. We will never really know.
- matt_ahrens



Who did they get with his conditional pick in the 2nd? Slipping my mind at the moment.
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Aug 17 @ 12:56 PM ET
Chicago Chronicle. ‏@TheChiChronicle 24m24 minutes ago
The #Blackhawks are also interested in Notre Dame's, Thomas DiPauli. Shares an agent with Harvard's Vesey.

Another LW prospect who just became a free agent under same rules.

Wiz et al have given us such a wealth of prospect info this summer, not sure if this guy was discussed or not.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 17 @ 12:57 PM ET
Kane should be able to convince him that it is better NOT to be near his hometown!
- stanleyhawk


Now to me being a new youngster star alone in the Windy City, maybe Patrick Kane is NOT the guy you want to talk to him on about how great Chicago living can be...after his hog wild non baby sitted activities.

And having the two poor party role models in Burish and Steeger didn't help on the road either...
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Aug 17 @ 1:08 PM ET
Something that just came to mind--- Kane is the perfect person to talk with Vesey--- he can not only discuss the journey as a US born player-- but also illustrate the total support that the Hawks organization has given him through many rough waters-- allowing him to develop and grow up while making some poor decisions-- and Kane elevated his game to MVP after what appeared to be the rock bottom moment in his life last summer--

That dedication from team to player is admirable--- THEN you have the rest of the selling points---the Cups, HOF players and city of Chicago-- fan base etc to discuss--

Whatever happens--- Hawks will be fine-- maybe better with Vesey-- maybe not as we don't know what he can deliver-- or how he will fit with the hawks core--

- jb3333

Solid post. Give this gentleman a drink
moots
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mundelein, IL
Joined: 12.02.2009

Aug 17 @ 1:17 PM ET
With Vermette , Vrbata and a few others off the market, gotta wonder because after reading some of these posts , Vesey is stayin out east. Who plays on Jonathen Toews left wing in the event that Hudler goes to another team which he may very well do. Gotta think Tazer will be fuming mad if he has to go another season looking at Rummies like Panik and a few other Rene Bourques on his left side. That is the issue that seems to be skirted around here, the What if 's . Any answers ? Cause Toews already can't be too happy with the potential if Bowman whiffs on everything.
- wonthecup10

If he is going to cry put Paranin on his wing. Kane can score playing with lesser talent. And if he didn't know this was bound to happen he should not have signed for 10.5 or maybe just produce like a talent paid top end money....
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Aug 17 @ 1:22 PM ET
I believe #1 reason Hayes left the Hawks to sign elsewhere was the fact that he was going to have a tough battle to crack the lineup at the time. There wasn't really a spot for the taking with the Hawks.
southernhawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: of champions, AL
Joined: 01.19.2012

Aug 17 @ 2:07 PM ET
Go get hudler...and let's get this going
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 17 @ 2:11 PM ET
What if the plan is bring Kane and tell Vesey, Panarin is going to play on the same line as Toews and you would be my new LW, and we will try to do everything we can so you reach the 2nd performance bonus like we did for Panarin. Kane can say who's performed better offensively than I have in the past 2 years?
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Aug 17 @ 2:25 PM ET
I'm not optimistic Vesey comes to Chicago. However, if he does, the Hawks have a legit chance at the Cup this year, barring injuries.

Plus nice job Stanley.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Aug 17 @ 2:30 PM ET
Think maybe he's been putting in even more work this offseason? I think he comes into this year in the best shape of his life.
- bhawks2241


I wouldn't be surprised.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Aug 17 @ 2:41 PM ET
Per 60 stats are still not my favorite for comparisons on a level like this. In this case, you're going to have some bottom 6 players in there who will have played 750 minutes but a lower TOI per game, so it will skew numbers for some guys. If players are sorted by by ev TOI (because deployment is often determined by this), Hossa would move up about 60 spots for P60, putting him closer to the 135 rank for forwards that you get with PPG (though position splits are better still). This is why PPG is preferable for current result comparison like this (as I've said before, P60 are better for potential results unless a lot of context is used as well). Similar numbers, just with a little more missing context imo.

However, the difference you're showing for Hossa/Toews between years does highlight that both players were impacted by something in a relatively similar way. Can't be age for both, so you look for other common factors, such as linemates or changes in deployment. If Hossa had declined this past year while Toews remained steady, then the argument for Hossa declining on a individual level would be more acceptable.

Yep, you're exactly correct about shots per game and that Hossa's still getting off near his normal rate (some decline expected), so there's definitely more at work to create such a big dip from his normal sh%, and I def think shooting farther out is part of the problem for Hossa - I went into a lot of detail a comment or so ago about shot location and passing rates impacting sh%, if you missed it (though how you could with how big it was idk lol). One of the stats guys at the Philly con was discussing variance of shot location over years, so it prompted me to look into it for Hossa (data is from some of the projects I mentioned the other day). At this point, with how it's going, I think it would probably be a stretch for Hossa to top 8-9% sh, but I think with a better balance to his line he could get back up to where he was in 2014 as long as his SAT/SOG rates stay pretty steady as you mention. His shot is definitely declining, don't get me wrong, but there are other factors causing his sh% to dip more than is expected due to general age drops.

I'm not huge fan of high danger scoring chance equation that WOI was using, because of it's emphasizes in-close shots when that's not always the highest place for danger for certain players (Ovechkin's spot is well outside that range obvs), but it's something to look at for guys like Hossa to see change / evolution considering his style over the year. Unfortunately, my main site also didn't like the HCF that WOI used so they haven't replicated it. SCF formula is solid, though. Man, I'm going to miss WOI, esp the shot charts.

- L_B_R


There are some similarities in the impact to Toews/Hossa last season, but the impact hit Hossa a lot harder. Toews even strength PP/60 dipped 12.5% while Hossa dropped off 36% to a career low. There is no question that if Hossa could have finished on more chances, that Toews would have seen very little drop in his production, despite the circus at LW on his line.

Not questioning your statement but where you are getting your metrics on shooting distance for Hossa? What I've seen on behindthenet.ca he didn't seem to be shooting from farther out overall. What I did notice watching Hossa play is that he had more difficulty driving the net and trying to turn it into a scoring chance. He also had an enormous amount of wasted chances with shots right into the goalies pads. I stopped getting excited anytime Hossa had a breakaway last season, because he just could not convert on those chances.

Speaking of deployment, for Hossa, I would just add that his deployment hasn't really changed drastically from his average in Chicago. There is some variance year to year, but not enough to make a significant difference. Line-mates and success of the team in general are a factor, but it is no secret that Hossa's scoring peaked between age 23-27 and he has been in slight decline since. as you know, it is typical of most players and also typical to see that decline accelerate in the mid to late 30's. I wouldn't be surprised if he nets around 15 goals this season.

Hossa is declining but bouncing back will be a whole lot easier if the Hawks find another LW.
Hank_Greenberg
Joined: 09.30.2015

Aug 17 @ 2:49 PM ET
Kentucky Fried Movie Baby!

Red Wings to Vesey's agent: How bout if he plays for us in Detroit?
Vesey agent asking Vesey: No! No, not Detroit! No! No, please! Anything but that! No! No!

Vesey's agent: Sorry Wings, Detroit's geography will be an issue

- stan-ley-cups


An American classic!

kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Aug 17 @ 2:57 PM ET
Chicago Chronicle. ‏@TheChiChronicle 24m24 minutes ago
The #Blackhawks are also interested in Notre Dame's, Thomas DiPauli. Shares an agent with Harvard's Vesey.

Another LW prospect who just became a free agent under same rules.

Wiz et al have given us such a wealth of prospect info this summer, not sure if this guy was discussed or not.

- pdx2ord



Di Pauli is not and SHOULD NOT be a winger. He's a center period. I don't know that he's a top 6 guy, but I think he has all kinds of potential to be a 3rd or 4th line center. That doesn't really help the first line, but depth down the middle is never a bad thing.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Aug 17 @ 2:59 PM ET
There are some similarities in the impact to Toews/Hossa last season, but the impact hit Hossa a lot harder. Toews even strength PP/60 dipped 12.5% while Hossa dropped off 36% to a career low. There is no question that if Hossa could have finished on more chances, that Toews would have seen very little drop in his production, despite the circus at LW on his line.

Not questioning your statement but where you are getting your metrics on shooting distance for Hossa? What I've seen on behindthenet.ca he didn't seem to be shooting from farther out overall. What I did notice watching Hossa play is that he had more difficulty driving the net and trying to turn it into a scoring chance. He also had an enormous amount of wasted chances with shots right into the goalies pads. I stopped getting excited anytime Hossa had a breakaway last season, because he just could not convert on those chances.

Speaking of deployment, for Hossa, I would just add that his deployment hasn't really changed drastically from his average in Chicago. There is some variance year to year, but not enough to make a significant difference. Line-mates and success of the team in general are a factor, but it is no secret that Hossa's scoring peaked between age 23-27 and he has been in slight decline since. as you know, it is typical of most players and also typical to see that decline accelerate in the mid to late 30's. I wouldn't be surprised if he nets around 15 goals this season.

Hossa is declining but bouncing back will be a whole lot easier if the Hawks find another LW.

- breadbag



Simply put is Hossa has been a great addition and has helped in winning 3 Cups..But he isn't now nor has been for awhile a lethal goalscorer. He can still be an effective player in a number of different ways but I would not count on any huge bounce back year with goals. Hossa's shooting % was below Keith and Seabrook's...Is there really a need to say more???

Father Time never never loses, it is just a matter of when he wins. A second slower on pulling the trigger can mean the difference between a goal and a save.
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Aug 17 @ 3:10 PM ET
Di Pauli is not and SHOULD NOT be a winger. He's a center period. I don't know that he's a top 6 guy, but I think he has all kinds of potential to be a 3rd or 4th line center. That doesn't really help the first line, but depth down the middle is never a bad thing.
- kwolf68


Oh, OK, good to know. They have him listed as a C/LW.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Aug 17 @ 3:15 PM ET
Di Pauli is not and SHOULD NOT be a winger. He's a center period. I don't know that he's a top 6 guy, but I think he has all kinds of potential to be a 3rd or 4th line center. That doesn't really help the first line, but depth down the middle is never a bad thing.
- kwolf68

Centers transitioning to the NHL very often play on the wing to get acclimated to the speed.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Aug 17 @ 3:28 PM ET
Centers transitioning to the NHL very often play on the wing to get acclimated to the speed.
- JRoenick97


....And many never effectively make the transition.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 3:41 PM ET
#Veseycircus


Vesey to sign with the KHL... News at 11!

Its an eastern KHL team so he will be close to home.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Aug 17 @ 4:10 PM ET
Grosso, who has had a very good year being out front says....


#BREAKING - Leafs and Blackhawks are the frontrunners for Jimmy Vesey. NYR/NJD just slightly behind, hearing BOS is low on his list.
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

Aug 17 @ 4:11 PM ET
Grosso just tweeted:
#BREAKING - Leafs and Blackhawks are the frontrunners for Jimmy Vesey. NYR/NJD just slightly behind, hearing BOS is low on his list.

(Or what mrpaulish said!)

EDIT TO ADD:
@RumorBreak Source said he really doesn't care if he is closer to home. Wants to play with good players and a good team. Coach also a factor
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Aug 17 @ 4:12 PM ET
Grosso, who has had a very good year being out front says....


#BREAKING - Leafs and Blackhawks are the frontrunners for Jimmy Vesey. NYR/NJD just slightly behind, hearing BOS is low on his list.

- mrpaulish


If true, guess it comes down to whether family/possibility of being core to a rebuild or winning now/learning from top-ranked vets is more important.
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