If Panarin makes anything under $7M on his next contract, I'll be shocked. The ONLY way the Hawks can keep him would be to deal Hossa, Seabrook, or CC. Seabrook is near untradeable with his new deal. CC might be tough with his NMC. Hossa, most likely. A team like Ottawa or Arizona would love to have Hossa mentor the young forwards there with only having to pay him $1M (cap hit doesn't matter to these teams). So it's going to come down to Hossa or Panarin after next year. For me, it's easy, it has to be Panarin.
- hawks2010

And Hossa would certainly be willing to move his family to the desert for $1,000,000 per year.

I would.

But I haven't been making almost $8,000,000 for each of the last 7 years.

Yes, but what third round pick is going to turn down the backup plan of getting a business degree from HARVARD. If I were a collegiate athlete, and I wasn't a guaranteed shot at the NHL, I'd definitely pad my options with a great education, not even taking into account the hometown Massachusetts argument.
- Slofire94

Harvard doesn't provide athletic scholarships BUT if you can get in, you would be foolish not to complete the degree.

Yes, but what third round pick is going to turn down the backup plan of getting a business degree from HARVARD. If I were a collegiate athlete, and I wasn't a guaranteed shot at the NHL, I'd definitely pad my options with a great education, not even taking into account the hometown Massachusetts argument.
- Slofire94

Actually can't argue with a Harvard degree, good for the kid and he doesn't owe any team anything. If it were me I'd sign with my hometown team if the money was the same

Harvard doesn't provide athletic scholarships BUT if you can get in, you would be foolish not to complete the degree.
- HawksFan30

But they provide financial assistance, so honestly if he could of gotten an athletic scholarship elsewhere, he may be smart but lacks wisdom.

Harvard doesn't provide athletic scholarships BUT if you can get in, you would be foolish not to complete the degree.
- HawksFan30

Agreed!

Thing about Hossa... is he still has really good jump.

Hayes won't have anything good to say about Chicago.
- matt_ahrens

...and the Hawks won't have anything positive to say about Hayes.

But look which team wins cups.

Nothing, not a peep of anything out of the Hawks org on Vesey or their pitch or anything. Not typical.

Thing about Hossa... is he still has really good jump.
- wiz1901

Move Crawford...Keep hoss... And sign bread man for eternity

I found some of this mentioned on the other board, Felt better about our chances yesterday then today. I just have not heard many people mention us today other then we called at 12:01.


Chris Botta ‏@ChrisBottaNHL
Told Islanders are right in contention for Jimmy Vesey with other finalists. Close to home. Good fit with young forwards.

3:17PM: Joe McDonald said that going into the meetings today the Leafs, Devils and Rangers were the teams that most felt were the leaders to sign him. (TSN 1050)

Kevin Hayes has been working out with Vesey and trying to push him toward the Rangers. (TSN 1050)

3:14PM: John Buccigross said on TSN Radio this morning that the big three that he has heard for Vesey are the Rangers, Devils and Leafs. (TSN 1050)

He hadn't heard Bruins and Sabres for a while until recently and that the Rangers are the "one team that is said the most." (TSN 1050)
- kmw4631

Out of all those teams, the only other somewhat competitive Top 6 is NYI. Again, all east coast teams from guess where... TSN. Stan Bowman, Barry Smith, and Jonathan Toews bring A LOT to the table with RESULTS. Don't count out Chicago yet. Still think odds are in our favor.

I'll leave Kruger alone for now and will pile on with the rest of the crew once we're 20 games in and we revisit 3 mil per for a guy on a team bleeding talent due to the cap who simply doesn't score..

Last year Hossa was 203rd in 5 on 5 points per 60 amongst all forwards with 750 minutes. Toews was 127th.

2014/15 Hossa was 59th and Toews 36th.

His lifetime SPG is 12.3% and is trending down badly to 9% two years ago and was 6.8 last year. Now bad puck luck rarely lasts two years in a row but maybe. His legs look fine to me and the stats bear that out as he got off 3 shots per game the last two years and his lifetime mark is 3.2 per game, so he's still getting shots. A shots per game drop is usually the first indicator of slowing as well as SPG as the older guy shoots from farther away.

Speaking of LBR, what kind of stats do you have on Hossa's high danger scoring chances the last two years compared to his lifetime mark?
- Mr Ricochet

Per 60 stats are still not my favorite for comparisons on a level like this. In this case, you're going to have some bottom 6 players in there who will have played 750 minutes but a lower TOI per game, so it will skew numbers for some guys. If players are sorted by by ev TOI (because deployment is often determined by this), Hossa would move up about 60 spots for P60, putting him closer to the 135 rank for forwards that you get with PPG (though position splits are better still). This is why PPG is preferable for current result comparison like this (as I've said before, P60 are better for potential results unless a lot of context is used as well). Similar numbers, just with a little more missing context imo.

However, the difference you're showing for Hossa/Toews between years does highlight that both players were impacted by something in a relatively similar way. Can't be age for both, so you look for other common factors, such as linemates or changes in deployment. If Hossa had declined this past year while Toews remained steady, then the argument for Hossa declining on a individual level would be more acceptable.

Yep, you're exactly correct about shots per game and that Hossa's still getting off near his normal rate (some decline expected), so there's definitely more at work to create such a big dip from his normal sh%, and I def think shooting farther out is part of the problem for Hossa - I went into a lot of detail a comment or so ago about shot location and passing rates impacting sh%, if you missed it (though how you could with how big it was idk lol). One of the stats guys at the Philly con was discussing variance of shot location over years, so it prompted me to look into it for Hossa (data is from some of the projects I mentioned the other day). At this point, with how it's going, I think it would probably be a stretch for Hossa to top 8-9% sh, but I think with a better balance to his line he could get back up to where he was in 2014 as long as his SAT/SOG rates stay pretty steady as you mention. His shot is definitely declining, don't get me wrong, but there are other factors causing his sh% to dip more than is expected due to general age drops.

I'm not huge fan of high danger scoring chance equation that WOI was using, because of it's emphasizes in-close shots when that's not always the highest place for danger for certain players (Ovechkin's spot is well outside that range obvs), but it's something to look at for guys like Hossa to see change / evolution considering his style over the year. Unfortunately, my main site also didn't like the HCF that WOI used so they haven't replicated it. SCF formula is solid, though. Man, I'm going to miss WOI, esp the shot charts.

With Vermette , Vrbata and a few others off the market, gotta wonder because after reading some of these posts , Vesey is stayin out east. Who plays on Jonathen Toews left wing in the event that Hudler goes to another team which he may very well do. Gotta think Tazer will be fuming mad if he has to go another season looking at Rummies like Panik and a few other Rene Bourques on his left side. That is the issue that seems to be skirted around here, the What if 's . Any answers ? Cause Toews already can't be too happy with the potential if Bowman whiffs on everything.

With Vermette , Vrbata and a few others off the market, gotta wonder because after reading some of these posts , Vesey is stayin out east. Who plays on Jonathen Toews left wing in the event that Hudler goes to another team which he may very well do. Gotta think Tazer will be fuming mad if he has to go another season looking at Rummies like Panik and a few other Rene Bourques on his left side. That is the issue that seems to be skirted around here, the What if 's . Any answers ? Cause Toews already can't be too happy with the potential if Bowman whiffs on everything.
- wonthecup10

As long as he's looking in the mirror. His big cap hit is one reason he can't have a top end LW. I'm not saying he's over paid. Just stating a fact.

If Panarin makes anything under $7M on his next contract, I'll be shocked. The ONLY way the Hawks can keep him would be to deal Hossa, Seabrook, or CC. Seabrook is near untradeable with his new deal. CC might be tough with his NMC. Hossa, most likely. A team like Ottawa or Arizona would love to have Hossa mentor the young forwards there with only having to pay him $1M (cap hit doesn't matter to these teams). So it's going to come down to Hossa or Panarin after next year. For me, it's easy, it has to be Panarin.
- hawks2010

Are you kidding me? $7m+??? I had to look it up...do you want to guess how many $7m players there are in the NHL? 31. ONE per team on average. Their names are Crosby, Toews, Doughty, Weber, etc. Guys like that. Franchise players. Every one has had multiple all-star appearances. the majority or the vast majority are guys talked about as being on a possible HOF track or at least mentioned at that level.

Panarin had a very nice ROOKIE year. If he plays this year at the level he played last year, maybe we're talking Saad type contract.

But let's let him put in a 2nd solid year before we even talk about him getting to the Saad level.

31 players in the NHL make $7m. Seabrook, one of the highest paid D, on a new contract (so his numbers reflect current cap situation). Lots of people think he was overpaid. He's NOT at $7m.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/s...-winning-ways-team-sweden

Two nice things about this article:

1) Hjalmarsson gets some notice as the lead article on a major sports website (albeit in the NHL section).

2) You don't need that darn Insider subscription to read it.

...and the Hawks won't have anything positive to say about Hayes.

But look which team wins cups.
- ArlingtonRob

yeah, I doubt Hayes will mention that he was there opening night last season when the Blackhawks raised their championship banner - on the visiting NYR team. Ha! still love that.

Another long one, please excuse the typos in the ramblings...

For people who have Kane on their favorite team, I'm always surprised by the (mostly slight in this case) dismissal of assist importance - or maybe just the singular focus of goals at the individual level. Hockey is a team sport and contributing assists are a vital part of that team game (in the case of Kane for years now, the most important thing considering his linemates). Hossa scoring 10-13 ev goals is ~okay for a top 6 player as long as his overall point contribution is in the proper ranger, which it is, and his linemates are scoring. If he didn't also have the assists, then there would be a bigger issue imo. It's kind of like how as long as Ovechkin is scoring 50+, Backstrom is likely going to hover around 20 (and honestly, he got 20 this year partially because Ovie spent time with Kuznetsov), though obvs to a much lower extent. Or he could be Pirri, all goals but not contributing any other way. Line balance is key, really - they had it in 2014-15 but not 2015-16, so it was a bigger issue the latter season.

Something cool that I was looking into more deeply recently - I've been talking about how lack of good passing impacted Toews-Hossa last year a good bit (it did), but I was looking into shot location and that definitely had an impact on Hossa's sh% too. He had a lower percentage of shots come from in-close, in the low slot area, over the last two years and as a result less goals from in-close. Hossa mobility is still pretty great, so it prompted me to look at the players who have played with him in the last few years. What I discovered is that Hossa's linemates had a larger 'share' of in-close shots, either because of a coaching decision (most likely) or to compensate.

Like for example, let's look at Saad over the years - 2014-15 Saad had between a 8-9% increase in shots in the low and medium slot over 2013 Saad and his primary assist rate went from 1.01 to 0.62. At the same time, Hossa's saw a decrease of about 4-5% low slot SAT, but A160 increased from .60 A160 to .82 A160, especially passes into the slot and 'rebound assists'. So while Hossa still attempted a lot of shots, he just wasn't taking as many in areas that helped increase his sh% as in previous years (or as like with Sharp, a player who shoots and passes more from farther out), and was assisting more instead esp to Saad. Toews also saw an increase of passes from Hossa in 2014-15. He's probably making as many of the longer out shots as usual, but not making the close goals as much is impacting his totals. This is definitely all part of why Hossa saw a decrease in goals with minimal change in overall points that particular year from the previous season. Since Hossa's SAT was pretty steady between these years, it makes a lot of sense that this was a deliberate decision by the coaching staff line to shift where Hossa/Saad operated in the OZ by the coaches. All this pretty much can account for the 6 goal difference at ev between 2013-14 and 2014-15.

And the major question is, did it matter that Hossa scored less as long as the line as whole was still producing strong goal numbers? No - they were still one of the most dominate lines that season. You can also apply this shot location explanation to last year, where he saw a further decline of 2-3% of in-close shots from the previous year - since Shaw plays a similar net front game plus has much much lower pass rate than Saad - and the result is there is going be a decrease even more for Hossa's goal scoring. To note, this also shows that there is some decline in skill because Hossa isn't making those farther out shots as much as prior in his career either, but his goal scorer definitely was hit harder due to these changes / QOT than by decline based on age.

As for April, I don't have shot location data for the Hawks then, but considering Kruger's general passing numbers and style of play (good on the cycle, but less play in the slot) + the addition of Ladd, I wouldn't be surprised if Hossa was able to be in close more so his sh% is up to where it probably should be in general (though this is hard to tell due to extreme small sample size obs). Ladd-Toews-Hossa had a sub-90 PDO likely also would have broken out eventually.

Realistically speaking, Hossa's sh% should have been decreasing at about .8-1.1% a year at his age. His numbers were staying consistent thanks in part to who he's had on his line - Toews 2013 assist rate was ridiculously good in 2013 and Sharp had his best ever in 2014. If Q can find the right balance for the Toews' line, I'd say Hossa getting a sh% back up near 9% could be a reality. It's harder to know if he's used or deployed in a different role with different players, though.
- L_B_R

30/30 player two years ago. Looked a half step slow this past year. Saad is an excellent hockey player.

Otherwise, Meh. They'll have push from the back which will solve a myriad of problems.

Kooga needs to have a 25-30 point season. That is a bigger factor me thinks.

Really makes you appreciate how incredible Kane is as a hockey player. PPG with has beens and never weres before last year.

Either way this year will be much better then last as they are now.

Are you kidding me? $7m+??? I had to look it up...do you want to guess how many $7m players there are in the NHL? 31. ONE per team on average. Their names are Crosby, Toews, Doughty, Weber, etc. Guys like that. Franchise players. Every one has had multiple all-star appearances. the majority or the vast majority are guys talked about as being on a possible HOF track or at least mentioned at that level.

Panarin had a very nice ROOKIE year. If he plays this year at the level he played last year, maybe we're talking Saad type contract.

But let's let him put in a 2nd solid year before we even talk about him getting to the Saad level.

31 players in the NHL make $7m. Seabrook, one of the highest paid D, on a new contract (so his numbers reflect current cap situation). Lots of people think he was overpaid. He's NOT at $7m.
- Cmonalready

Panarin won't make a penny less than whatever Kucherov gets in Tampa. That is the benchmark. Same goes for Gaudreau's next deal as well.

Not that extreme but if he can step in at 1lw and put up say 45-50 pts and play a solid two way game that slots other forwards in there correct spots. 1LW is a huge hole if he can fill it that makes this team a lot better. Need an example? Remember that Panarin kid? Hawks don't likely don't make the playoffs without him. The hope is. Vesey can come in and fill a Huge void. Again not Panarin level but 45-50 pts would be gravy.
- bhawks2241

Veseys still an unknown. From what I gleaned last year we could've had Druin for Schmaltz. Was I mistaken? If so, why not Schmaltz? I know he's younger but lightning coach was high on something about him. Somebody's gotta come outta nowhere like saad did.

Dats all

Some Guy Out of Boston:

Wilbur B. Fieldgar ‏@BeeWilbur 39m39 minutes ago
@MurphysLaw74 Hawks meet with Vesey at 11 with Cosch Q Bowman and Kane. Who are Bs brining? Brady maybe?

Said no Toews. Odd.

ETA: Would be awesome if these interviews could have a little ice time. Let Kane send him a few passes and see how it feels. . .

Vesey wants to be closer to home!? What does he think, they're playin xbox? What's gonna happen when he has to travel? Bring a banky.

Whats plan B Stan?

Vesey wants to be closer to home!? What does he think, they're playin xbox? What's gonna happen when he has to travel? Bring a banky.

Whats plan B Stan?
- hocktock

Since there was talk last week of Hudler going to the Canucks, maybe Stan was able to get him and his agent to hold off until this marathon is over. Not sure he's going to be keen on being an obvious 2nd (last?) choice, and he might give Chicago the finger. If so, it looks like player development will be the order of the day for Q et al.

Chips on Hawks and Vesey
- mrpaulish

I was leaning that way the last couple of weeks...And where I'm hearing whispers saying he is coming are from someone I have known a long time. He' s connected but never really gets into rumors....He says Vesey is coming and for now I won't bet against.

With Vermette , Vrbata and a few others off the market, gotta wonder because after reading some of these posts , Vesey is stayin out east. Who plays on Jonathen Toews left wing in the event that Hudler goes to another team which he may very well do. Gotta think Tazer will be fuming mad if he has to go another season looking at Rummies like Panik and a few other Rene Bourques on his left side. That is the issue that seems to be skirted around here, the What if 's . Any answers ? Cause Toews already can't be too happy with the potential if Bowman whiffs on everything.
- wonthecup10

I wouldn't be surprised if Hudler is a similar situation to Marty Turco...Turco's deal was in Bowman's top drawer signed....As Turco was willing to wait to come to Chicago after everything sorted out. We will find out soon.

Are you kidding me? $7m+??? I had to look it up...do you want to guess how many $7m players there are in the NHL? 31. ONE per team on average. Their names are Crosby, Toews, Doughty, Weber, etc. Guys like that. Franchise players. Every one has had multiple all-star appearances. the majority or the vast majority are guys talked about as being on a possible HOF track or at least mentioned at that level.

Panarin had a very nice ROOKIE year. If he plays this year at the level he played last year, maybe we're talking Saad type contract.

But let's let him put in a 2nd solid year before we even talk about him getting to the Saad level.

31 players in the NHL make $7m. Seabrook, one of the highest paid D, on a new contract (so his numbers reflect current cap situation). Lots of people think he was overpaid. He's NOT at $7m.
- Cmonalready

It's all about the term with Panarin and I agree $7 mill+ is not in the cards most likely.
As far as Seabrook...He's a first pairing dman on most teams. Winning 3 Cups helps his cause in getting more coin.