His agent also said chances are he signs with an Eastern Conference team, starting to not look good for the Hawks
- Sundevil

Cold truth is.. His best chance to maximize a second contract and winning is best with two teams: Chicago and Pittsburgh. Sure, a team like Boston, buffalo, or NJ can pay the money, but those teams aren't making any big waves anytime soon in terms of winning. My money is on the contenders.

His agent also said chances are he signs with an Eastern Conference team, starting to not look good for the Hawks
- Sundevil

Taking even odds simply based on teams said to be in the race: Pgh, NYI, Tor, NJ and Chi, it is intuitively obvious his agent has an 80% confidence level.

As a goal scorer, he reminds me of the ballplayer who hits a 440' solo shot in the 8th inning of a 9-2 game.
- blackhawk24

Heh. Good analogy. Never could understand why anyone wanted this chump back in Chicago.

Colorado signed Ben Smith to a 1 year deal. No word on the cap hit yet.
- DarthKane

Good for Smitty. I hope he does well there.

His agent also said chances are he signs with an Eastern Conference team, starting to not look good for the Hawks
- Sundevil

In that case, the kid should sign with the Panthers. He would be playing on a young up and coming team without any fan or media pressure that will probably go 2 rounds deep into the playoffs during both of his ELC years.

It´s starting to look not so good for Hawks with this Vesey kid or does it?

The killing field in Chicago might keep our Harvard boy from coming to Chi town....thanks Soros.

While I'd agree he did't put up 3rd line PPG, that is looking at it bit through "Rose Colored" glasses IMO. This points per game was 155th among all forwards (tbh, the position listed isn't always where guys play) which is mediocre. Plus his age right now being 37, he may bounce back a bit statistically, but decline is in his future. Last year, he didn't finish chances like a top player, but he still played great defensively.

There are tons of factors, but I think you can't ignore these facts. The last two seasons his goal scoring (per game) has declined. This season was his career low and the previous year was only slightly better than his rookie season. Last season was 1/2 his career average. People will blame last year on having no solid LW, but the season before he had his worst PPG in a Hawks uniform and worst since his second year in the NHL and that was with Saad/Toews.

Hossa could realistically find himself in the bottom 6 because ...

1) He could actually decline in play further (the trend is there in nearly all statistical categories)
2) The Hawks may have a rookie with enough scoring touch they want playing in the ozone rather than dzone, which could could bump Hossa to more of a checking role.
3) Q may try to spread scoring around and the Hawks have poor scoring depth in the bottom 6.

Hossa is still a great asset, but he is without question. The question will be how he declines and how soon he will retire.
- breadbag

Few things...

First, not setting a minimum game limit when looking at PPG is really silly because it includes small sample sizes (some guy named Evan Rodrigues is 9th in the league for PPG if you do that). If you look at PPG properly and set an actual standard to eliminate those players who didn't play as much (norm for comparative stats is 2/3 a season or 55 games, if possible), then Hossa is tied at 135 for all forwards. Looking at it simplistically, if the top 90 are 1st liners and the lower 90 are 2nd liners, then that means that Hossa falls exactly in the middle of the latter group, thus making him a solid 2nd liner. Which, as you'll note, was what I was arguing. Not 'rose tinted' in any way, just basic simple ranking of players.

Second, not breaking down by position is limiting and not recommended (different positions have different outputs). Left wings tend to have a higher / lower split while right wings are more evenly distributed, for example. And while you're correct that some guys don't play the position they're listed at on NHL, the swapping / variance is pretty even among all positions so it doesn't impact rankings much. On top of this, you can compare Hossa to specific RW and come to the same conclusion - for example, Hossa's PPG was perfectly in line with other 2RW in the playoffs, even those on the final four teams (determined by TOI ev) - lower than Hornqvist but higher than Brouwer and Callahan, pretty close to Ward.

Third, I never ignore facts lol. I do sort and weigh information, which can add a layer of subjectivity to analysis, but I never straight up ignore info. And while there definitely is some expected age related decline to Hossa's numbers (though not nearly in all statistical categories, as you say, just some key ones that are higher surface), there is still an exaggeration of this decline to 3rd line levels. All his underlying numbers suggest he's a 2nd line player and should be for at least another year, possibly two, if he remains with high quality teammates. I've already done it a couple of time, but I can break down all major categories that Hossa ranked as top 6, but just to name a handful: productive possession, shot attempts, scoring chances, passing rate, shot suppression, primary points per 60/game, and goals for percentage. If Q decides he wants to play him on the 3rd line, like he did Sharp previously, this still does not mean he isn't a top 6 level player, as Sharp still was then as well (who, despite being on the 3rd line still got top 6 ev and all TOI). Line numbers for the Hawks don't always mean much - like how Kane is the 1W but plays on the '2nd line'. The likelihood that Hossa would drop from top 6 ev TOI next season, no matter what line he's on, is not high. He will continue to decline, as all players do, but the level of which he has already has definitely been overstated. Hossa is the and likely will continue to be the 2nd best RW wing on this team next year, regardless of what line he's on.

At this point, I feel like I could write a dissertation this topic for both Sharp and Hossa. I mean, I'm in the process of writing this a response about goal scoring as it relates to Hossa to help show why this is happening both with and without Saad, so I'm almost there lol. I need a beta reader at this point.

Vrbata off the table - signed with Arizona.
- pdx2ord

Good.

Few things...

First, not setting a minimum game limit when looking at PPG is really silly because it includes small sample sizes (some guy named Evan Rodrigues is 9th in the league for PPG if you do that). If you look at PPG properly and set an actual standard to eliminate those players who didn't play as much (norm for comparative stats is 2/3 a season or 55 games, if possible), then Hossa is tied at 135 for all forwards. Looking at it simplistically, if the top 90 are 1st liners and the lower 90 are 2nd liners, then that means that Hossa falls exactly in the middle of the latter group, thus making him a solid 2nd liner. Which, as you'll note, was what I was arguing. Not 'rose tinted' in any way, just basic simple ranking of players.

Second, not breaking down by position is limiting and not recommended (different positions have different outputs). Left wings tend to have a higher / lower split while right wings are more evenly distributed, for example. And while you're correct that some guys don't play the position they're listed at on NHL, the swapping / variance is pretty even among all positions so it doesn't impact rankings much. On top of this, you can compare Hossa to specific RW and come to the same conclusion - for example, Hossa's PPG was perfectly in line with other 2RW in the playoffs, even those on the final four teams (determined by TOI ev) - lower than Hornqvist but higher than Brouwer and Callahan, pretty close to Ward.

Third, I never ignore facts lol. I do sort and weigh information, which can add a layer of subjectivity to analysis, but I never straight up ignore info. And while there definitely is some expected age related decline to Hossa's numbers (though not nearly in all statistical categories, as you say, just some key ones that are higher surface), there is still an exaggeration of this decline to 3rd line levels. All his underlying numbers suggest he's a 2nd line player and should be for at least another year, possibly two, if he remains with high quality teammates. I've already done it a couple of time, but I can break down all major categories that Hossa ranked as top 6, but just to name a handful: productive possession, shot attempts, scoring chances, passing rate, shot suppression, primary points per 60/game, and goals for percentage. If Q decides he wants to play him on the 3rd line, like he did Sharp previously, this still does not mean he isn't a top 6 level player, as Sharp still was then as well (who, despite being on the 3rd line still got top 6 ev and all TOI). Line numbers for the Hawks don't always mean much - like how Kane is the 1W but plays on the '2nd line'. The likelihood that Hossa would drop from top 6 ev TOI next season, no matter what line he's on, is not high. He will continue to decline, as all players do, but the level of which he has already has definitely been overstated. Hossa is the and likely will continue to be the 2nd best RW wing on this team next year, regardless of what line he's on.

At this point, I feel like I could write a dissertation this topic for both Sharp and Hossa. I mean, I'm in the process of writing this a response about goal scoring as it relates to Hossa to help show why this is happening both with and without Saad, so I'm almost there lol. I need a beta reader at this point.
- L_B_R

His decline has been both overstated and understated IMO. Hossa is still rather average offensively as a 2nd line player, as your rational above explained. Don't get me wrong, I think he will be top 6 in TOI for the forwards, but he isn't finishing like a top 6 forward lately and needs to bounce back. The Hawks need to find a future LW and a future RW, because Hossa ain't getting any younger. Don't be surprised if he hangs em up after this season.

I found some of this mentioned on the other board, Felt better about our chances yesterday then today. I just have not heard many people mention us today other then we called at 12:01.


Chris Botta ‏@ChrisBottaNHL
Told Islanders are right in contention for Jimmy Vesey with other finalists. Close to home. Good fit with young forwards.

3:17PM: Joe McDonald said that going into the meetings today the Leafs, Devils and Rangers were the teams that most felt were the leaders to sign him. (TSN 1050)

Kevin Hayes has been working out with Vesey and trying to push him toward the Rangers. (TSN 1050)

3:14PM: John Buccigross said on TSN Radio this morning that the big three that he has heard for Vesey are the Rangers, Devils and Leafs. (TSN 1050)

He hadn't heard Bruins and Sabres for a while until recently and that the Rangers are the "one team that is said the most." (TSN 1050)

I found some of this mentioned on the other board, Felt better about our chances yesterday then today. I just have not heard many people mention us today other then we called at 12:01.


Chris Botta ‏@ChrisBottaNHL
Told Islanders are right in contention for Jimmy Vesey with other finalists. Close to home. Good fit with young forwards.

3:17PM: Joe McDonald said that going into the meetings today the Leafs, Devils and Rangers were the teams that most felt were the leaders to sign him. (TSN 1050)

Kevin Hayes has been working out with Vesey and trying to push him toward the Rangers. (TSN 1050)

3:14PM: John Buccigross said on TSN Radio this morning that the big three that he has heard for Vesey are the Rangers, Devils and Leafs. (TSN 1050)

He hadn't heard Bruins and Sabres for a while until recently and that the Rangers are the "one team that is said the most." (TSN 1050)
- kmw4631

Maybe it's because the Hawks weren't up (to make a pitch) today and those teams were. Wait and see what happens after they've had an at bat.

Maybe it's because the Hawks weren't up (to make a pitch) today and those teams were. Wait and see what happens after they've had an at bat.
- Marlowe

They need a soft opening to the meeting with Stan and Q.

If they feel they arent swaying Vesey enough, they radio in the closer and 19 busts in the room:

I found some of this mentioned on the other board, Felt better about our chances yesterday then today. I just have not heard many people mention us today other then we called at 12:01.


Chris Botta ‏@ChrisBottaNHL
Told Islanders are right in contention for Jimmy Vesey with other finalists. Close to home. Good fit with young forwards.

3:17PM: Joe McDonald said that going into the meetings today the Leafs, Devils and Rangers were the teams that most felt were the leaders to sign him. (TSN 1050)

Kevin Hayes has been working out with Vesey and trying to push him toward the Rangers. (TSN 1050)

3:14PM: John Buccigross said on TSN Radio this morning that the big three that he has heard for Vesey are the Rangers, Devils and Leafs. (TSN 1050)

He hadn't heard Bruins and Sabres for a while until recently and that the Rangers are the "one team that is said the most." (TSN 1050)
- kmw4631

Hayes won't have anything good to say about Chicago.

Maybe it's because the Hawks weren't up (to make a pitch) today and those teams were. Wait and see what happens after they've had an at bat.
- Marlowe

Something really does not add up. If he wants to stay close to home then that limits his suitors as far as maximizing his second contract (which JJ reported was his biggest concern). Is he concerned about being close to home only for the ELC? So many of those teams listed have pretty solid collections of wings. He would have stiff competition for a top 6 gig. Which I assume he wants close to guaranteed no?

(I could be off with these a bit)

Rangers Top Wings: Nash Kreider Zuccarello Hayes

Islanders: Laad Anders Lee PA Parenteau Strome

Devils: Hall Cammalleri Palmieri Smith-Pelly

Sabres: Okposo Reinhart Kane (if he plays?) Tyler Ennis

All these teams have some established NHL players who I assume he would be in competition with. Really only the Bruins and Hawks having gaping top 6 holes they cant fill in with proven NHL players or from within. I am not sure anyone knows what is going on in Veseys camp. Maybe they don't even know yet. I

don't see teams like the Devils or Rangers saying here is 1LW it is your position to lose. I assume that would not sit well with current roster players. I could see Buffalo maybe but I still think they are a few years away from being playoff contenders.

A team like the Devils just acquired Hall and Palmieri is coming off a 30 goal season. Cammalleri is still pretty solid too. I don't see Vesey taking any of their spots right out of camp if he signs there.

The Rangers? Nash and Zuccarello are locked Top 6 wings. I assume Kreider is too. JT Miller just had a 20 goal 43 pt year. Kevin Hayes is pitching Vesey? Come take the last potential top 6 spot away from me? Or come play on the 3rd line with me in NY?

Just my two cents on this stuff. Some of these teams just don't really make sense if Vesey is looking for an almost certain top 6 spot.

Maybe it's because the Hawks weren't up (to make a pitch) today and those teams were. Wait and see what happens after they've had an at bat.
- Marlowe

If he is taking advice from K. Hayes, then I don't want him anyway...

His overall game is certainly still at a top-6 level, but at some point, top sixers have to score some goals - especially when your line mates aren't.

2014-15: 11 goals 5X5, 8.9% overall shooting percentage (82 games)
2015-16: 8 goals 5X5, 6.8% overall shooting percentage (64 games)

And in 2014-15, 7 of his 22 total goals came in a 4 game stretch in February.

His career shooting percentage is 12.3% - the last two years represent a dramatic drop.

I would tend to dismiss last year as a bad year goal-wise - but it was the second in a row. To my eyes, it seems to be his approach to shooting - still trying to score the same ways he did earlier in his career - low along the ice, 5-hole - when he actually tried something different in last April's series against the Blues, he did score 3 goals.

I'm hopeful he learned something from last spring - what was working when he was younger - and goalies perhaps didn't cover the ice as well - hasn't worked for a couple of years.

But - it's still two years of declining goals scoring.
- StLBravesFan

Another long one, please excuse the typos in the ramblings...

For people who have Kane on their favorite team, I'm always surprised by the (mostly slight in this case) dismissal of assist importance - or maybe just the singular focus of goals at the individual level. Hockey is a team sport and contributing assists are a vital part of that team game (in the case of Kane for years now, the most important thing considering his linemates). Hossa scoring 10-13 ev goals is ~okay for a top 6 player as long as his overall point contribution is in the proper ranger, which it is, and his linemates are scoring. If he didn't also have the assists, then there would be a bigger issue imo. It's kind of like how as long as Ovechkin is scoring 50+, Backstrom is likely going to hover around 20 (and honestly, he got 20 this year partially because Ovie spent time with Kuznetsov), though obvs to a much lower extent. Or he could be Pirri, all goals but not contributing any other way. Line balance is key, really - they had it in 2014-15 but not 2015-16, so it was a bigger issue the latter season.

Something cool that I was looking into more deeply recently - I've been talking about how lack of good passing impacted Toews-Hossa last year a good bit (it did), but I was looking into shot location and that definitely had an impact on Hossa's sh% too. He had a lower percentage of shots come from in-close, in the low slot area, over the last two years and as a result less goals from in-close. Hossa mobility is still pretty great, so it prompted me to look at the players who have played with him in the last few years. What I discovered is that Hossa's linemates had a larger 'share' of in-close shots, either because of a coaching decision (most likely) or to compensate.

Like for example, let's look at Saad over the years - 2014-15 Saad had between a 8-9% increase in shots in the low and medium slot over 2013 Saad and his primary assist rate went from 1.01 to 0.62. At the same time, Hossa's saw a decrease of about 4-5% low slot SAT, but A160 increased from .60 A160 to .82 A160, especially passes into the slot and 'rebound assists'. So while Hossa still attempted a lot of shots, he just wasn't taking as many in areas that helped increase his sh% as in previous years (or as like with Sharp, a player who shoots and passes more from farther out), and was assisting more instead esp to Saad. Toews also saw an increase of passes from Hossa in 2014-15. He's probably making as many of the longer out shots as usual, but not making the close goals as much is impacting his totals. This is definitely all part of why Hossa saw a decrease in goals with minimal change in overall points that particular year from the previous season. Since Hossa's SAT was pretty steady between these years, it makes a lot of sense that this was a deliberate decision by the coaching staff line to shift where Hossa/Saad operated in the OZ by the coaches. All this pretty much can account for the 6 goal difference at ev between 2013-14 and 2014-15.

And the major question is, did it matter that Hossa scored less as long as the line as whole was still producing strong goal numbers? No - they were still one of the most dominate lines that season. You can also apply this shot location explanation to last year, where he saw a further decline of 2-3% of in-close shots from the previous year - since Shaw plays a similar net front game plus has much much lower pass rate than Saad - and the result is there is going be a decrease even more for Hossa's goal scoring. To note, this also shows that there is some decline in skill because Hossa isn't making those farther out shots as much as prior in his career either, but his goal scorer definitely was hit harder due to these changes / QOT than by decline based on age.

As for April, I don't have shot location data for the Hawks then, but considering Kruger's general passing numbers and style of play (good on the cycle, but less play in the slot) + the addition of Ladd, I wouldn't be surprised if Hossa was able to be in close more so his sh% is up to where it probably should be in general (though this is hard to tell due to extreme small sample size obs). Ladd-Toews-Hossa had a sub-90 PDO likely also would have broken out eventually.

Realistically speaking, Hossa's sh% should have been decreasing at about .8-1.1% a year at his age. His numbers were staying consistent thanks in part to who he's had on his line - Toews 2013 assist rate was ridiculously good in 2013 and Sharp had his best ever in 2014. If Q can find the right balance for the Toews' line, I'd say Hossa getting a sh% back up near 9% could be a reality. It's harder to know if he's used or deployed in a different role with different players, though.

His decline has been both overstated and understated IMO. Hossa is still rather average offensively as a 2nd line player, as your rational above explained. Don't get me wrong, I think he will be top 6 in TOI for the forwards, but he isn't finishing like a top 6 forward lately and needs to bounce back. The Hawks need to find a future LW and a future RW, because Hossa ain't getting any younger. Don't be surprised if he hangs em up after this season.
- breadbag

Imo it's only overstated if people are still claiming he's 1RW - that's not true anymore, at least in terms of production (production possession, SAT, SCF, etc are all still 1st line - production just isn't). Any statement that he's a 2nd liner is still factually true in pretty much every sense, though, so that's not understating anything. The Hawks do need to find a future RW to replace Hossa eventually, but that doesn't really need to happen next year and it probably shouldn't.

In any case, calling Hossa a 3rd liner is officially a pet peeve of mine lol. Right in line with people dismissing Kruger.

sure i could be wrong just like every other poster here...including you...but if panarin has another huge year similar to last year and is looking north for 6 mildo for 6 plus years...then what...

but as i see this team going no where with out an increase in production from toews/hossa from their combined .63 pts/game and no one i can see picking up the slack...and what happens happens if kane/panarin drop off form their pace of 2.2 pts/game...

they better be very good defensively and craw better be vezina like again
- bogiedoc

Worry about next year next year.

If the Ivan wants more than $6MM next year he's gone anyway. To keep him above that price would require creating another unfillable hole, trading one problem for another. I'd take my chances on what they might get in picks and/or trades for his rights rather than move (NMCs notwithstanding) any of the current core players.

Especially during the expansion season where the best twenty nine other goalies (in theory) would all be protected, making the market for even a servicable replacement for CC one which starts (in theory) with the thirty first best goalie.

Time for the FO and the coaching staff to DEVELOP some players as the longer term solution until the cap situation improves.

Imo it's only overstated if people are still claiming he's 1RW - that's not true anymore, at least in terms of production (production possession, SAT, SCF, etc are all still 1st line - production just isn't). Any statement that he's a 2nd liner is still factually true in pretty much every sense, though, so that's not understating anything. The Hawks do need to find a future RW to replace Hossa eventually, but that doesn't really need to happen next year and it probably shouldn't.

In any case, calling Hossa a 3rd liner is officially a pet peeve of mine lol.
- L_B_R

I think a lot of this has to do with difference in opinion on what the Hawks top line truly is. Many still consider the Toews/Hossa line to be the "1st" line, however if you ask me the Hawks true "1st" line last year was the Kane line. In fact that was probably the best line in the NHL. With that in mind I think some need to stop expecting Hossa to produce 1st line numbers, and realize that he's actually the 2RW on this team, regardless of if the Toews line is technically listed as the 1st line or is the line that takes the opening face off.

Same thing goes for those who say "The Hawks still need a 1LW". We really don't, considering we have Panarin who just put up 77 pts last year playing LW. The Hawks need to find someone to play LW on the Toews line, not necessarily another all star caliber player but maybe someone like Panik or a young Vesey/Schmaltz that can put up 40ish pts.

Maybe it's because the Hawks weren't up (to make a pitch) today and those teams were. Wait and see what happens after they've had an at bat.
- Marlowe

No, the hawks were not part of the presenters for the first day.

You have to wonder if it was because they were told that he is thinkibg about staying in the NE as mentioned weeks ago.

There were tweets out there that the hawks offered full salary & bonus.
Also that the hawks were not going to guarantee a top six slot, just a chance to win it. (Reality check.)

Maybe the hawks are waiting for a final interview and chance to show him lots of love...

Can't be helping the Hawks at all that Hayes seems to be a big influence in this kids decision.

Worry about next year next year.

If the Ivan wants more than $6MM next year he's gone anyway. To keep him above that price would require creating another unfillable hole, trading one problem for another. I'd take my chances on what they might get in picks and/or trades for his rights rather than move (NMCs notwithstanding) any of the current core players.

Especially during the expansion season where the best twenty nine other goalies (in theory) would all be protected, making the market for even a servicable replacement for CC one which starts (in theory) with the thirty first best goalie.

Time for the FO and the coaching staff to DEVELOP some players as the longer term solution until the cap situation improves.
- Return of the Roar

If Panarin makes anything under $7M on his next contract, I'll be shocked. The ONLY way the Hawks can keep him would be to deal Hossa, Seabrook, or CC. Seabrook is near untradeable with his new deal. CC might be tough with his NMC. Hossa, most likely. A team like Ottawa or Arizona would love to have Hossa mentor the young forwards there with only having to pay him $1M (cap hit doesn't matter to these teams). So it's going to come down to Hossa or Panarin after next year. For me, it's easy, it has to be Panarin.

Can't be helping the Hawks at all that Hayes seems to be a big influence in this kids decision.
- SimpleJack

Yeah those Hayes brothers are really lighting up the NHL--- they have both diminished value from their prospect years-- muddling bottom 6 players--

What is it that they have won in their careers?

If Vesey wants to be a star in the NHL-- he shouldn't be listening to those brothers at all--

Imo it's only overstated if people are still claiming he's 1RW - that's not true anymore, at least in terms of production (production possession, SAT, SCF, etc are all still 1st line - production just isn't). Any statement that he's a 2nd liner is still factually true in pretty much every sense, though, so that's not understating anything. The Hawks do need to find a future RW to replace Hossa eventually, but that doesn't really need to happen next year and it probably shouldn't.

In any case, calling Hossa a 3rd liner is officially a pet peeve of mine lol. Right in line with people dismissing Kruger.
- L_B_R

I'll leave Kruger alone for now and will pile on with the rest of the crew once we're 20 games in and we revisit 3 mil per for a guy on a team bleeding talent due to the cap who simply doesn't score..

Last year Hossa was 203rd in 5 on 5 points per 60 amongst all forwards with 750 minutes. Toews was 127th.

2014/15 Hossa was 59th and Toews 36th.

His lifetime SPG is 12.3% and is trending down badly to 9% two years ago and was 6.8 last year. Now bad puck luck rarely lasts two years in a row but maybe. His legs look fine to me and the stats bear that out as he got off 3 shots per game the last two years and his lifetime mark is 3.2 per game, so he's still getting shots. A shots per game drop is usually the first indicator of slowing as well as SPG as the older guy shoots from farther away.

Speaking of LBR, what kind of stats do you have on Hossa's high danger scoring chances the last two years compared to his lifetime mark?