Agreed. If you take 200 more shots per game than the other team, but you lose 1-0, what good are the shots? You can bang the "playing the right way" drum all you want, but if you can't regularly put the puck in the net, then all the shots in the world don't matter.
- jmatchett383

If you take two hundred shots more than your opponent and lose nothing matters but the loss. If you are consistently shooting over two hundred more shots than your opponent the likelihood that you don't won't most of your games shrinks to less than an iota. The biggest argument against shot attempt differential based analytics is a fundamental disregard of probability.

I think it could work and would be legal if they actually played the player at the position, ie dressing Murray in regular player gear and dressing him as your 6th/7th defenseman but that would really defeat the purpose. I'm sure the league would have issue with listing a player at a position he doesn't and hasn't ever played just for protection purposes. If the Pens were willing to dress/player Murray as a defenseman this year they would have a legitimate case for protecting him as a defenseman but that really the only scenario where I see that being possible.
- jaydogg1974

Well, as long as you dont want him to be able to play goal in those games, it would work.

If you take two hundred shots more than your opponent and lose nothing matters but the loss. If you are consistently shooting over two hundred more shots than your opponent the likelihood that you don't won't most of your games shrinks to less than an iota. The biggest argument against shot attempt differential based analytics is a fundamental disregard of probability.
- Victoro311

Yes, taking more shots, everything being equal, will lead to more goals. Everything is not equal.

Am I the only One that thinks that LV will be a decent team? Too many good players to be selected. I Can see them being better than at least 5 teams.

Am I the only One that thinks that LV will be a decent team? Too many good players to be selected. I Can see them being better than at least 5 teams.
- Barnaby36

They won't be the worst in the league, but they won't have any top players apart from their goalie. A team of middle 6 forwards and borderline-to-solid top 4 defensemen can only get so far. With good coaching and a lot of luck they could be good enough to just miss the playoffs, but until they have several elite forwards and a number 1 D (or two number 2s) they won't get much further.

The hard part will be convincing guys to stay around while the future core players grow. The team could be 100% different after the 4-5 years it will take to build a core.

Yes, taking more shots, everything being equal, will lead to more goals. Everything is not equal.
- jmatchett383

You're trying to make this about absolutes. It's not. It's a probabilities game.

And I didn't need stats to tell me Brandon Sutter wasn't very good. He was a 3 mil a year player max solely because his wrist shot and speed were good for ~15 goals a year, but he was a net negative and now he's making over 4 mil a year.

You're trying to make this about absolutes. It's not. It's a probabilities game.

And I didn't need stats to tell me Brandon Sutter wasn't very good. He was a 3 mil a year player max solely because his wrist shot and speed were good for ~15 goals a year, but he was a net negative and now he's making over 4 mil a year.
- Victoro311

Ok, if a team plays more years than another then they 'should' win more cups? So every team will eventually win a cup?

I'm just jumping in here cause there's nothing better to do!

But.......

It doesn't matter what player 'A' does as long as player A's team can win. If player A scores 3 GWG then isn't that better than being a 'net negative'? Sutter turned up in the playoffs before he was traded, so there is at least 1 positive.

Now, go & tell me to (frank) off & mind my own business!

The Summer's best series of blogs so far. Great work.

I was hoping you would go ahead and choose the Vegas team in the end. Having to reach the cap floor is going to be the most interesting part. Some team is going to rid themselves of a bad contract for free.

Ok, if a team plays more years than another then they 'should' win more cups? So every team will eventually win a cup?

I'm just jumping in here cause there's nothing better to do!

But.......

It doesn't matter what player 'A' does as long as player A's team can win. If player A scores 3 GWG then isn't that better than being a 'net negative'? Sutter turned up in the playoffs before he was traded, so there is at least 1 positive.

Now, go & tell me to (frank) off & mind my own business!
- Aussiepenguin

If the NHL continues indefinitely it's extremely likely that all franchises will eventually win a Cup. The probability of a franchise never winning for an eternity is less than an iota. Infentesimably small.

And 3 GWGs, ~15 goals, and ~30does not come close to making up for the complete offensive ineffectiveness that Brandon Sutter caused on the third line. If he wasn't literally scoring a goal during his shift he was doing nothing useful. He had pretty good defensive instincts, but he was an incompetent playmaker and the cycle died on his stick every time he got the puck on the boards. 3 GWGs you say? How many games did we lose because the third line couldn't do anything to help Sid and Geno? You can get Brandon Sutter like production without the surrounding suckatude and for far cheaper than 4-5 mil a year through an overlooked vet like Cullen, Stempniak, and it's looking like Hudler will soon join that category. Because of this, his tangible production is not a good defense of his overall play and terrible value.

If the NHL continues indefinitely it's extremely likely that all franchises will eventually win a Cup. The probability of a franchise never winning for an eternity is less than an iota. Infentesimably small.

And 3 GWGs, ~15 goals, and ~30does not come close to making up for the complete offensive ineffectiveness that Brandon Sutter caused on the third line. If he wasn't literally scoring a goal during his shift he was doing nothing useful. He had pretty good defensive instincts, but he was an incompetent playmaker and the cycle died on his stick every time he got the puck on the boards. 3 GWGs you say? How many games did we lose because the third line couldn't do anything to help Sid and Geno? You can get Brandon Sutter like production without the surrounding suckatude and for far cheaper than 4-5 mil a year through an overlooked vet like Cullen, Stempniak, and it's looking like Hudler will soon join that category. Because of this, his tangible production is not a good defense of his overall play and terrible value.
- Victoro311

Soooo, if a team continues to outshoot their opponent it's extremely likely they will win a game - eventually?? How many games will they lose before that happens because I don't like the sound of those odds??? (also isn't 1 of the factors of probability repetition?)

Also, shouldn't those organisations that have played the most clearly have more cups?

I have no argument about the trade of Sutter, but he wasn't as bad as everyone that didn't like him says he was. If he was - he would be talking a language other than English on another continent (let's say like Spaling!), playing his hockey. Boner, Kessel, Dumo, Cole & Lovejob have all felt the wrath of this thread. The only difference is they weren't traded & became part of a cup winning champion team.

Ok, if a team plays more years than another then they 'should' win more cups? So every team will eventually win a cup?

I'm just jumping in here cause there's nothing better to do!

But.......

It doesn't matter what player 'A' does as long as player A's team can win. If player A scores 3 GWG then isn't that better than being a 'net negative'? Sutter turned up in the playoffs before he was traded, so there is at least 1 positive.

Now, go & tell me to (frank) off & mind my own business!
- Aussiepenguin

(frank) off and mind your own business the best team doesn't always win the cup. it is just more probable that they do. that is what everything is like in the world especially sports. nothing is certain just some things are more probable than others

if chicago gets vesey I think I am gonna shoot myself. first panarin and now possibly vesey. let some other (frank)ing teams get a bit of stud freeagents too.

(frank) off and mind your own business the best team doesn't always win the cup. it is just more probable that they do. that is what everything is like in the world especially sports. nothing is certain just some things are more probable than others
- martox

Well thats not true. Since 85-86 only 7 Presidents trophy winners have won the cup. That is 7 in 30.

Well thats not true. Since 85-86 only 7 Presidents trophy winners have won the cup. That is 7 in 30.
- Dcoms

not like I know things like that. normally being the better team makes it more probable. also just cuz they won the president trophy does not mean they are the best team. noone thought the rangers team that won the trophy was that good.

Well thats not true. Since 85-86 only 7 Presidents trophy winners have won the cup. That is 7 in 30.
- Dcoms

7/30 seems like a pretty low occurrence of taken out of context, but it is relatively high. The highest seed at 7/30 still has the highest occurrence than any other number of seed.

if chicago gets vesey I think I am gonna shoot myself. first panarin and now possibly vesey. let some other (frank)ing teams get a bit of stud freeagents too.
- martox

Edmenton got Shultz. We got Pessonen. New York got Hayes. Sometimes guys that high profile just bust, or in Hayes case, are good NHLers but aren't these top 6 studs some project them to be.

Am I the only One that thinks that LV will be a decent team? Too many good players to be selected. I Can see them being better than at least 5 teams.
- Barnaby36

They should have a deeper defense core than most teams with their available talent. Lots of teams have garbage on their 3rd pairs. They'll find a couple goalies too. Offensively, a couple guys will break out just because they'll get top PP time they wouldn't get otherwise. If they get an NHL ready talent at the top of the draft, they could be competitive.

It's just that lack of elite talent that will do them in. Especially down the middle there won't be much available. But teams like Pheonix a few years ago have been playoff caliber with less.

Edmenton got Shultz. We got Pessonen. New York got Hayes. Sometimes guys that high profile just bust, or in Hayes case, are good NHLers but aren't these top 6 studs some project them to be.
- Victoro311

Good point.

I say let Vesey go, I bet Pirri is a better player and they both play the same position. Vesey is 23 and Pirri is 25 so it's not like one is way younger. If he wants to go to the Hawks let him. I have an idea. What do you think abot Chris Kunitz and a second to Arizona for Martin Hanzal? With the difference in cap hits we can sign Pirri. Kunitz for Hanzal and Pirri is better than Sutter for Bonino and Fehr. Hanzal is UFA next year so he's gone at the TDL anyways.

Please tell me we are not holding out on Cullen because of Vesey. Cullen is an excellent C even though he's 38 already. In my book Cullen is a better C than Bonino.

not like I know things like that. normally being the better team makes it more probable. also just cuz they won the president trophy does not mean they are the best team. noone thought the rangers team that won the trophy was that good.
- martox

Because it's such an objective thing there is no other way to properly judge which team is "the best." Actually that Rangers team(and you know how I feel about the Rangers and their fans) was a hard team to play and even harder to beat.

I say let Vesey go, I bet Pirri is a better player and they both play the same position. Vesey is 23 and Pirri is 25 so it's not like one is way younger. If he wants to go to the Hawks let him. I have an idea. What do you think abot Chris Kunitz and a second to Arizona for Martin Hanzal? With the difference in cap hits we can sign Pirri. Kunitz for Hanzal and Pirri is better than Sutter for Bonino and Fehr. Hanzal is UFA next year so he's gone at the TDL anyways.
- Dcoms

Don't know much about Pirri but why wasn't he re-signed by his previous team if he is that good? I like responsible forwards defensively.

7/30 seems like a pretty low occurrence of taken out of context, but it is relatively high. The highest seed at 7/30 still has the highest occurrence than any other number of seed.
- Victoro311

It's a low enough occurrence to make it officially no guarantee of anything.

Don't know much about Pirri but why wasn't he re-signed by his previous team if he is that good? I like responsible forwards defensively.
- Barnaby36

25 goals 2 years ago on a below average team. Good skater, good size.

Please tell me we are not holding out on Cullen because of Vesey. Cullen is an excellent C even though he's 38 already. In my book Cullen is a better C than Bonino.
- Barnaby36

Everything I've read says they are just waiting for Cullen to make a decision and aren't pursuing Vesey. Might be bonus overages they want to avoid, or maybe they are just happy with the guys they got.

Even if they aren't true top 6 guys, Sheary adds to the team speed concept they are built on and Kunitz drives possession as well as anyone. Not to mention Wilson and the possibility of Guentzel or Simon coming up at some point.

I'd like to offer Cullen's money to Hudler myself (after Vesey, I'd still try that), but this could just be the team sticking to their identity.