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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 2
Author Message
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 6 @ 9:44 PM ET
I just feel like more and more teams are catching on to the fact that as long as goalies aren't sinking you, the advantage you gain by having a better goalie in net is marginal unless you have a real show stopper like Schnieder, Price, or Lundqvist. Besides those three and maybe a couple more, cap space is better spent elsewhere when you can have a Jones or an Eliot in net. There's no need to pay the next tier of guys like the Rasks, Fleurys, Luongos, and Crawfords of the world when average goaltending can get you just as far.
- Victoro311


I agree and disagree with that. Getting above average goaltending isn't that easy. There are 3-4 teams that really ruined last year with goaltending - Dallas Calgary maybe Edmonton. You could possible include Nashville in that group as it seems like their guy hasn't been performing. A goalie does seem to be the last piece of the puzzle to put in place but still an important piece.

IMHO probably going to end up dumping fleury for very little return. Seems like a crowded goalie mkt right now. Going to depend on how many teams think they need to upgrade the position and if anyone falls in love with fleury.

It would take a lot more than a 2nd round pick to keep Las Vegas from taking Murray. I don't see anything we could offer them to not take him. His value I think is a top 10 pick now.
Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

Aug 6 @ 10:25 PM ET
I don't even care about capitalizing. Assuming Murray proves he's our guy this year, if Fleury is traded by next offseason before expansion, even if its for an 8th round pick, I'll admit that holding onto him was a good idea. We don't need to use his cap hit to improve somewhere else on the roster this season (LW is weak, but it's not like we could have signed anyone or really traded for anyone), so its better to have an elite goalie tandem than to not have one. But losing Murray to expansion or buying out Fleury to prevent losing Murray would be a failure of seismic proportions which I would not forgive Rutherford for.
- Victoro311

I agree 100% I just think there are more options than we think and depending on how the season goes there may be more. If Murray turns out to not succeed that will also spell disaster for the franchise as he is the only superstar caliber player under 25 on the team. It would mean having to start over completely in about 5-6 years and 3-4 seasons in the bottom of the league again. That would just suck compared to being able to rebuild on the fly with Murray and a decent defense as the cornerstones. Then again Jarry, Gustavson, Maguire or Desmith(in that order) may be something special given minutes and opportunity.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 6 @ 10:46 PM ET
I agree 100% I just think there are more options than we think and depending on how the season goes there may be more. If Murray turns out to not succeed that will also spell disaster for the franchise as he is the only superstar caliber player under 25 on the team. It would mean having to start over completely in about 5-6 years and 3-4 seasons in the bottom of the league again. That would just suck compared to being able to rebuild on the fly with Murray and a decent defense as the cornerstones. Then again Jarry, Gustavson, Maguire or Desmith(in that order) may be something special given minutes and opportunity.
- Dcoms

Looking at teams that have tried to build from a superstar goalie out makes me not want to do that at all. If you're goalie's good enough, it can make your team overachieve and miss out on drafting your top end talent. I mean just look at the Rangers, Montreal, and New Jersey. If the Crosby/Malkin era were to end abruptly and Murray were a super star at that juncture, I'd prefer to trade Murray for a Schnider like ransom and rebuild via tankage.

I don't think it'll come to that though. I think we still have half a decade left of the Crosby/Malkin era and by then we could have some good talent in the pipelines somehow.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 7 @ 2:46 AM ET
Looking at teams that have tried to build from a superstar goalie out makes me not want to do that at all. If you're goalie's good enough, it can make your team overachieve and miss out on drafting your top end talent. I mean just look at the Rangers, Montreal, and New Jersey. If the Crosby/Malkin era were to end abruptly and Murray were a super star at that juncture, I'd prefer to trade Murray for a Schnider like ransom and rebuild via tankage.

I don't think it'll come to that though. I think we still have half a decade left of the Crosby/Malkin era and by then we could have some good talent in the pipelines somehow.

- Victoro311


If Murray becomes that level of goalie I will take it. Rebuilding a pain if we can simply be good for a while I will take that.

Not sure if elite goalie is the real problem for two of those teams. Canadiens have really only had two elite years of price healthy. Rangers are a New York team and would never do a rebuild. All New York teams seem to struggle with ever being bad enough to build a dynasty. Yankees win because mlb drafting matters little for tanking and no cap. But the Knicks/rangers always build to be good every year. Bulls are a similar franchise.

I agree on New Jersey. Schneider doesn't do anything for them besides keeping them from being bad enough to get a top 3 pick. But with the Taylor hall trade they might actually have a shot being a playoff team.

I have a feeling we won't do a rebuild after the Crosby era but will still be a cap team and attempt to compete.
Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

Aug 7 @ 9:02 AM ET
This would make an awesome third jersey or even for the outdoor game this coming season. I still love the last stadium series jerseys and they would make a great third jersey too. https://www.google.ca/sea...s&imgrc=dOe2bq2Fu_7V8M%3A
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Aug 7 @ 10:21 AM ET
This would make an awesome third jersey or even for the outdoor game this coming season. I still love the last stadium series jerseys and they would make a great third jersey too. https://www.google.ca/sea...s&imgrc=dOe2bq2Fu_7V8M%3A
- Dcoms


Who are the new guys.......Player & Toast?
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 7 @ 11:50 AM ET
I did more research on goalies and the thing that sticks out to me is how unpredictable the position is. 4 of the top 5 goalies in pay either suck or had a mediocre season ( rask bobrovsky and rinne did not have good years)

Goalies are drafted in about every round and often work out. Some stars have been traded for little reward Ben bishop. Journeyman turn into steady players like Griese.

The top teams all seem to have very good goalies. Holtby/bishop are both currently top 3. Fleury is good.

It's a position that seems to lack any kind of model for developing. As oppose to finding a franchise center - get a top 3 pick. Franchise dmen are a little more random but take one in the top 2 rounds seems to work. And once a froward or defenseman is a core guy they tend to stay in that role.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 7 @ 12:01 PM ET
I agree and disagree with that. Getting above average goaltending isn't that easy. There are 3-4 teams that really ruined last year with goaltending - Dallas Calgary maybe Edmonton. You could possible include Nashville in that group as it seems like their guy hasn't been performing. A goalie does seem to be the last piece of the puzzle to put in place but still an important piece.

IMHO probably going to end up dumping fleury for very little return. Seems like a crowded goalie mkt right now. Going to depend on how many teams think they need to upgrade the position and if anyone falls in love with fleury.

It would take a lot more than a 2nd round pick to keep Las Vegas from taking Murray. I don't see anything we could offer them to not take him. His value I think is a top 10 pick now.

- sditulli

Oh I agree with you. I made sure to add the caveat that as long as goaltending isn't sinking you. Bad goaltending can definitely be a death blow to a good team. I think what I was getting at is something you started to stumble upon in your most recent post. Goaltending is so random and average goaltending can come from so many places that it's just not a position of value anymore. There may be teams that are willing to pay a proven commodity 5-6 mil a year to take the guess work out of it, but I think you'll see that teams aren't willing to expend a lot of assets to aquire such a goalie because any given goalie you draft can develop into a franchise guy and there's all these journeyman vets that can give the goaltending necessary to succeed.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 7 @ 1:29 PM ET
Oh I agree with you. I made sure to add the caveat that as long as goaltending isn't sinking you. Bad goaltending can definitely be a death blow to a good team. I think what I was getting at is something you started to stumble upon in your most recent post. Goaltending is so random and average goaltending can come from so many places that it's just not a position of value anymore. There may be teams that are willing to pay a proven commodity 5-6 mil a year to take the guess work out of it, but I think you'll see that teams aren't willing to expend a lot of assets to aquire such a goalie because any given goalie you draft can develop into a franchise guy and there's all these journeyman vets that can give the goaltending necessary to succeed.
- Victoro311


I think goaltending and even elite goaltending is very important for a cup run. Dallas and Nashville are two examples where the missing piece is goaltending. I think it's worth paying up for elite goaltending if you could. Problem is I don't see a model that works for targeting elite goaltending. In theory Nashville has a great defenseman and are spending a huge amount of money on rinne but I didn't see the results on that investment. Dallas targeted what looked like league average goaltending twice and both were awful. Bishop was acquired really cheap and has been a stud lately. The top teams last year all had very good goalies and close to elite but there isn't a model that works to replicate it. Maybe maintaining flexibility is the best option. Fleury also sank atleast one or two cup runs for us. For something as important as goaltending for success it doesn't seem like something you can put assets in to guarantee you have it. For a team like the pens we need a cup capable goalie, but eliminating risks from the position is impossible.

Term contract seem risky with the position. Limits your flexibility when you need to make a change. Dallas needs to make a change and fleury/bishop mkts offer reasonable risks rewards but they paid two guys with term hoping for league average goaltending and now can't take a salary. Kinda makes me like the Gustafson pick even more. Having a guy whose going to be cheap for a while eliminates the risks you get stuck with bad goalie contracts and can't make adjustments.

Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

Aug 7 @ 8:58 PM ET
Who are the new guys.......Player & Toast?
- Aussiepenguin

Huh?
dstewart
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 09.16.2010

Aug 12 @ 6:45 PM ET
There's no way Boone Jenner is left unprotected. Cam Atkinson ... really??
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