Leafs aren't missing the Playoffs. They got a goaltender now, they have the best coach in hockey by a mile, they have 3 x #1 centres (assuming Bozak is gone and Nylander plays the position it would be dumb not to have him play) and they are stacked on wing.

Their D could use an upgrade but it's above average as most teams don't have a Gardiner.
- James_Tanner

Why would any team WANT to have a Gardiner?

Unless they have like... a garden to attend to.... which in this case... would be fine....

Edit: But seriously, I completely disagree... no surprises there...

It's not a simple yes or no question, so phrasing it that way to try and make your point is incredibly prejudicial.

I think finding a $100 bill on the sidewalk can, and does, happen. Doesn't mean I'm going to tell you that walking on the sidewalk leads to adding $100 in my bank account.
- eichiefs9

well it would lead to your bank account increasing. walk any sidewalk and you will find loose change. may not lead to $100 but will lead to more money.

Yeah I wasn't saying that winning faceoffs was bad or anything, just that there's zero credible evidence (other than a bunch of anonymous internet posters' "eye tests") that proves anything one way or another. Therefore, if you can't tell me that it has one kind of effect, it's not a metric that really holds any value in evaluating a player's worth.
- eichiefs9

so if pro hockey players said it can help the outcome of a game would you believe it then? would their actual game experience change your mind?

well it would lead to your bank account increasing. walk any sidewalk and you will find loose change. may not lead to $100 but will lead to more money.
- rinaldo

Yeah in order to have any sort of significant change in my personal wealth, I'd have to spend an inordinate amount of time walking around looking for loose sidewalk change, which would mean I couldn't hold a job.

The more rational fix would be just having a job that puts money in my bank account every week.

Or to transpose this into the real debate here, I would have to use statistics that have actually been proven to be effective metrics for player evaluation.

so if pro hockey players said it can help the outcome of a game would you believe it then? would their actual game experience change your mind?
- rinaldo

No, of course not. Just because they're world-class at playing the game, doesn't mean they understand the subtleties that make it tick.

I drive a car every day..doesn't mean I could properly explain to you how an engine works.

Blows my mind that people don't see a benefit from winning a face off. Why does every coach put out their best faceoff man out in the last minute of a game if it doesn't matter? Why not have a defenseman take the draw? I have seen many a goal happen in the last minute (or in an offensive zone faceoff) directly due to a face off being won. Even if it happens rarely that would still mean it has some effect on a game's outcome. Stats are good but not the be all and end all.

Yeah in order to have any sort of significant change in my personal wealth, I'd have to spend an inordinate amount of time walking around looking for loose sidewalk change, which would mean I couldn't hold a job.

The more rational fix would be just having a job that puts money in my bank account every week.

Or to transpose this into the real debate here, I would have to use statistics that have actually been proven to be effective metrics for player evaluation.
- eichiefs9

bottom line is it would add to your bank account. didn't say nor imply it would have any change in your personal wealth.

Well go to a T test to see if there is any significant difference.

No, of course not. Just because they're world-class at playing the game, doesn't mean they understand the subtleties that make it tick.

I drive a car every day..doesn't mean I could properly explain to you how an engine works.
- eichiefs9

great analogy there. That's what you throw out? I bet pro driver could explain to you how an engine works.

Blows my mind that people don't see a benefit from winning a face off. Why does every coach put out their best faceoff man out in the last minute of a game if it doesn't matter? Why not have a defenseman take the draw? I have seen many a goal happen in the last minute (or in an offensive zone faceoff) directly due to a face off being won. Even if it happens rarely that would still mean it has some effect on a game's outcome. Stats are good but not the be all and end all.
- EyeJay

Remember Crosby is a CHEATER!

No, of course not. Just because they're world-class at playing the game, doesn't mean they understand the subtleties that make it tick.

I drive a car every day..doesn't mean I could properly explain to you how an engine works.
- eichiefs9

Ya to be honest faceoffs defenitly effect the game. Maybe not the final result in every game but still effects the game. It also demoralises a guy losing the draw on a constant. Plus it determines who gets the puck. Don't see why you wouldn't wanna be winning draws.

bottom line is it would add to your bank account. didn't say nor imply it would have any change in your personal wealth.

Well go to a T test to see if there is any significant difference.
- rinaldo

This is the stupidest argument ever.

You can't present one iota of evidence that supports your claim other than telling me that you watch the game so it must be true.

The rest of your time has been spent arguing minutia of my points, rather than trying to convince me that single thing you said is true for any reason other than "because I said it is".

Ya to be honest faceoffs defenitly effect the game. Maybe not the final result in every game but still effects the game. It also demoralises a guy losing the draw on a constant. Plus it determines who gets the puck. Don't see why you wouldn't wanna be winning draws.
- Mr.FunFacts

You're so far off the entire core of this debate.

My point was that there is no real evidence of face-off success is a metric that is directly related to succes. I'm obviously not arguing against winning faceoffs, I'm saying that just because someone wins (or doesn't win) a lot of faceoffs, that it doesn't automatically mean that faceoff wins are the driving force behind team success.

You're so far off the entire core of this debate.

My point was that there is no real evidence of face-off success is a metric that is directly related to succes. I'm obviously not arguing against winning faceoffs, I'm saying that just because someone wins (or doesn't win) a lot of faceoffs, that it doesn't automatically mean that faceoff wins are the driving force behind team success.
- eichiefs9

I agree with this post, however face offs are an aspect to the game, they probably won't determine your team's success but they can lead to scoring chance's witch in turn can lead to goals etc... Point being face offs are important.

You're so far off the entire core of this debate.

My point was that there is no real evidence of face-off success is a metric that is directly related to succes. I'm obviously not arguing against winning faceoffs, I'm saying that just because someone wins (or doesn't win) a lot of faceoffs, that it doesn't automatically mean that faceoff wins are the driving force behind team success.
- eichiefs9

driving force, no. is it a part of a team success yes it is. If you don't believe that then there is no hope for you

This is the stupidest argument ever.

You can't present one iota of evidence that supports your claim other than telling me that you watch the game so it must be true.

The rest of your time has been spent arguing minutia of my points, rather than trying to convince me that single thing you said is true for any reason other than "because I said it is".
- eichiefs9

there is statistical evidence big foot exist. do yo believe he does?

irrelevant to what he said. Faceoff can impact the outcome of a game. It doesn't have to be a direct goal. When you constantly lose face-offs you don't have the puck. When you don't have the puck you chase. That can get you tired which can have an outcome on the game.

When you have the puck you can dictate the play. so when you can dictate the play do you think that at times that has a bearing on the outcome of the game?
- rinaldo

No one said this isn't true, what was said is that the faceoff statistic is useless. Which it absolutely is.

Look at the teams ranking in FO win %, the top 3 teams missed the playoffs. That alone tells me the stat is garbage

Blows my mind that people don't see a benefit from winning a face off. Why does every coach put out their best faceoff man out in the last minute of a game if it doesn't matter? Why not have a defenseman take the draw? I have seen many a goal happen in the last minute (or in an offensive zone faceoff) directly due to a face off being won. Even if it happens rarely that would still mean it has some effect on a game's outcome. Stats are good but not the be all and end all.
- EyeJay

Because in individual circumstances they do matter, over a period of time they have no bearing on team success, unless it was like an astronomical difference

Lousy Smarch Weather!

James, where is the Vermette blog? I hate to say it, but you were right! I hate it, becouse Vermy was a class act. Though he has been slowing down, I like the older players. I hope he wins another cup this year.

Right, using your common sense to interpret what you see is fine...but you, me, or anyone doesn't watch every hockey game and remember each individual faceoff and it's outcome. So you'd have to rely on metrics and it's nearly impossible to prove any correlation between faceoff wins and success over a large enough sample size to validate it.

Does winning faceoffs sometimes result in positive events for the team that won them? Sure. But there are also a lot of times where it results in a negative event. And unless you can definitively tell me what type of outcome it has the overwhelming majority of the time, by using tangible proof (the eye test doesn't count), then the correct answer is that there is no evidence that faceoffs have an impact on a team's success.
- eichiefs9

So your telling me you could care less if the isles ever won a face off ...they would be just as effective if they lost every faceoff ?

So your telling me you could care less if the isles ever won a face off ...they would be just as effective if they lost every faceoff ?
- Redmile247

But this never happens....ever...so what does it matter?

well it would lead to your bank account increasing. walk any sidewalk and you will find loose change. may not lead to $100 but will lead to more money.
- rinaldo

Sure, but there are a lot of other more effective ways to make money... just like in hockey. Winning face offs is nice, but there are so many more vital parts of the game that more directly impact the final result, that focusing too much on face offs is actually detrimental.

So your telling me you could care less if the isles ever won a face off ...they would be just as effective if they lost every faceoff ?
- Redmile247

No... the point is that a 55% face off man who is generally ineffective at the other vital parts of the game shouldn't be out on the ice in crucial situations.

James, where is the Vermette blog? I hate to say it, but you were right! I hate it, becouse Vermy was a class act. Though he has been slowing down, I like the older players. I hope he wins another cup this year.
- Gomey

It will come tomorrow, work depending. This one was done by the time the news came out.

Faceoffs:

The main reason faceoffs don't matter, and what I suspect the reason for their non-correlation to winning is, is because it's impossible to be very good or bad at faceoffs.

If someone was so terrible at faceoffs, they wouldn't likely take any. So what happens is that at the professional level, no one wins or loses at faceoffs by a very big discrepancy.

Toews lead the league with a 58.6% faceoff percentage. Ribeiro was last with 37.5%

If they took 100 faceoffs vs each other, it'd be 60-40 Toews, but all Ribeiro has to do is win an extra 1 faceoff out of 10 and they are even.

So that's why faceoffs don't really matter: at the professional level the best and worst guy are barely any different. And therefore, everything else being equal, saying a guy's faceoff skills as a reason to keep or play him becomes ridiculous.

Bozak, who I believe is the reason we're having this conversation, is an OK player, but even if he was the best faceoff player in the NHL, which he isn't, that wouldn't be a reason you should factor in your decision to play him.

Yes, a faceoff win gives you possession, but possession changes like every 2 seconds or something similarly small, so it barely matters.

Yes, sometimes a goal is scored off a faceoff, but this is exceptionally rare. There are more than 50 faceoffs per game, and you see a goal scored off the faceoff a couple times per season if you only watch one teams' games.

The math has been done, and it's estimated you need a faceoff +/- of +250 to equal a goal.

In the end, if your team never one a faceoff, you would likely not win many games, but since it's impossible to get an advantage big enough to really matter (outside of random anomalous games which I am sure occasionally occur) it is safe to say that within the confines of what can reasonably be expected to occur in an NHL game, that faceoffs don't really matter.