@sditulli:

I think you're over thinking. You don't need top end contributors to be on ELC for cup contention. What you need is top to bottom depth. Yes, one way of achieving that is to have youngsters like Saad, Ekblad, Ristolanen, Kuznetsov, Kucherov, or some other young stud like that contributing at an extremely high end where you're basically getting a 6 mil + contract level of production at 800k. Another way is to pay all of your top end guys but have the aggregate of your role players equal something very cheap. That's what we did last season.

And that's why I'm against throwing big money at Bones. It messes up our cap situation because we don't have anyone in the pipeline that can put up 25+ goals or 50+ points in the near future besides Sprong depending on how ready he is. We need to keep our aggregate cost for supporting staff down.
- Victoro311

I don't value 3C as just a depth guy. I value a 3C pretty much the same as a 4d or your 3rd and 4th wingers. I think you need one or two of those guys playing for cheap to make everything work (granted I'm talking about being a cup favorite not just a good team). This year we essentially had bonino and dumolin playing well under mkt value. Need a couple guys like that. You can fill out a crosby-hornqvist duo with a cheap youngster and depth wingers that way. But you need some guys who really impact a game earning a little. Sprong might be the next guy to provide that.

So Phoenix just signed a guy who they hope become dumolin - Big/skates well/some offense at lower levels who has an awful hero contract for 6 years at 3.8. Mostly rfa years. I mean he's shown as much as pouliot though different styles. I get what their gm is thinking, but seems a little rich. But dumo might get paid a lot more than we are hoping. A good this year and with the contract being mostly UFA years we might be looking at closer to 6 years 33.

So Phoenix just signed a guy who they hope become dumolin - Big/skates well/some offense at lower levels who has an awful hero contract for 6 years at 3.8. Mostly rfa years. I mean he's shown as much as pouliot though different styles. I get what their gm is thinking, but seems a little rich. But dumo might get paid a lot more than we are hoping. A good this year and with the contract being mostly UFA years we might be looking at closer to 6 years 33.
- sditulli

Connor Murphy (6 @ $3.85M) comps:
Klingberg 7 @ 4.25M
Klefbom 7 @ 4.167M
Hamonic 7 @ 3.857M
Ekholm 6 @ 3.75M

something around this is what dumo will get. I would say atleast half of them are BETTER than dumo. give me one reason why dumo should get 1.5 mil more than these people that are the same age (some are 1 year younger and others are some years older) and everone except hamonic and murphy had double amount of points that dumo had. you are extremly overrating what dumo will get. he is not worth 5.5mil.

I don't value 3C as just a depth guy. I value a 3C pretty much the same as a 4d or your 3rd and 4th wingers. I think you need one or two of those guys playing for cheap to make everything work (granted I'm talking about being a cup favorite not just a good team). This year we essentially had bonino and dumolin playing well under mkt value. Need a couple guys like that. You can fill out a crosby-hornqvist duo with a cheap youngster and depth wingers that way. But you need some guys who really impact a game earning a little. Sprong might be the next guy to provide that.
- sditulli

Now let me ask you: assuming Kessel keeps his own unit, why do we need to pay a 3C the big bucks if we have a 3RW who's a superstar and a 3LW who's being paid well and has great chemestry with the 3RW. Shouldn't the 3C be a guy who's cost effective in this scenario?

And if HBK gets broken up and your argument becomes well Bonino is a guy that can pick up the level of the players on his line to make the third unit effective. Is that actually fact? There's ample evidence that Bonino isn't super effective outside of HBK to counter argue you.

Now let me ask you: assuming Kessel keeps his own unit, why do we need to pay a 3C the big bucks if we have a 3RW who's a superstar and a 3LW who's being paid well and has great chemestry with the 3RW. Shouldn't the 3C be a guy who's cost effective in this scenario?

And if HBK gets broken up and your argument becomes well Bonino is a guy that can pick up the level of the players on his line to make the third unit effective. Is that actually fact? There's ample evidence that Bonino isn't super effective outside of HBK to counter argue you.
- Victoro311

I don't know his linemates in vancouver, but he averaged 45 pts a season the previous 2 years there. that's soderberg or anisimov territory. Which is 4.5

Connor Murphy (6 @ $3.85M) comps:
Klingberg 7 @ 4.25M
Klefbom 7 @ 4.167M
Hamonic 7 @ 3.857M
Ekholm 6 @ 3.75M

something around this is what dumo will get. I would say atleast half of them are BETTER than dumo. give me one reason why dumo should get 1.5 mil more than these people that are the same age (some are 1 year younger and others are some years older) and everone except hamonic and murphy had double amount of points that dumo had. you are extremly overrating what dumo will get. he is not worth 5.5mil.
- martox

Would have to do more research. But Rfa vs Ufa years big difference. Meaningless to compare salaries without specifying that. Lot of those guys better than Paul Martin but he's had no problem finding 5 per year deals.
Lots of lesser guys in the 5's who were Ufa deals. Carle Nicky orpik. Prices goes up a ton to buyout Ufa years. Dumo is 2 years to Ufa so might be a bunch

Would have to do more research. But Rfa vs Ufa years big difference. Meaningless to compare salaries without specifying that. Lot of those guys better than Paul Martin but he's had no problem finding 5 per year deals.
Lots of lesser guys in the 5's who were Ufa deals. Carle Nicky orpik. Prices goes up a ton to buyout Ufa years. Dumo is 2 years to Ufa so might be a bunch
- sditulli

everyone of these people I mentioned loses alot of ufa years. they have a "no trade clause" too and only got those contracts.

I don't know his linemates in vancouver, but he averaged 45 pts a season the previous 2 years there. that's soderberg or anisimov territory. Which is 4.5
- sditulli

He spent one year in Van as the 2C and only racked up 39 points. That's not good enough as a 2C. I doubt he can be good enough without the right line mates as the 3C here. Bonino is a lynchpin in HBK, but he needs HBK to be effective. That doesn't scream give this guy 4 mil +.

He spent one year in Van as the 2C and only racked up 39 points. That's not good enough as a 2C. I doubt he can be good enough without the right line mates as the 3C here. Bonino is a lynchpin in HBK, but he needs HBK to be effective. That doesn't scream give this guy 4 mil +.
- Victoro311

I mean stats are dead-on anisimov and soderberg. They are both like 4.5 (not counting last regular season, but his playoff stats were better than anything those two have done...so averages out to them). So I'm guess UFA value is 4.5.

everyone of these people I mentioned loses alot of ufa years. they have a "no trade clause" too and only got those contracts.
- martox

ya they do. I'd have to look up when they were all signed and performance right before. Big leverage on dumo will be he has 2 rfa years before ufa. Locking in 6 years 27 removes a lot of risks for him. As opposed to taking a bridge deal of like 2 years 6. After bridge as pure ufa could pull 6 years 34 or so, but he could always get injured before the big pay day. And 27 is a lot of money.

everyone of these people I mentioned loses alot of ufa years. they have a "no trade clause" too and only got those contracts.
- martox

Why would you even both quoting harmonic to me?

He has a 7 year 27 deal. The deal started when he was 22. Buys out 1 year of UFA. The year before he signed the deal he has 10 points in 48 games as a 21 year old. So NYI paid 3.8 a year for a 21 year old defenseman buyout out 4 rfa years and 3 ufa years (ufa at 25 cause looks like his elc started at 18). Has absolutely nothing in common with dumolin situation.

If an unproven defenseman is getting paid 3.8 per year for a long term on a lower cap then dumolin is much more expensive on a contract that is 2 rfa years and a ton of ufa years.

Connor Murphy (6 @ $3.85M) comps:
Klingberg 7 @ 4.25M
Klefbom 7 @ 4.167M
Hamonic 7 @ 3.857M
Ekholm 6 @ 3.75M

something around this is what dumo will get. I would say atleast half of them are BETTER than dumo. give me one reason why dumo should get 1.5 mil more than these people that are the same age (some are 1 year younger and others are some years older) and everone except hamonic and murphy had double amount of points that dumo had. you are extremly overrating what dumo will get. he is not worth 5.5mil.
- martox

Klefbom signed his contract at the same point of nhl production as dumo but he's younger and its mostly rfa years.

Its like you guys are idiots and can't differentiate between contracts signed on guys whose rights are controlled by rfa status and guys who will be looking for mostly ufa deals. klefbom is a maata contract that mostly pays for rfa years blended with a 2-3 years of ufa for a player that is largely unproven. Non of them have been a 2D on a cup team facing superstars and has performed. And the majority of these deals were rfa year deals.

Klefbom signed his contract at the same point of nhl production as dumo but he's younger and its mostly rfa years.

Its like you guys are idiots and can't differentiate between contracts signed on guys whose rights are controlled by rfa status and guys who will be looking for mostly ufa deals. klefbom is a maata contract that mostly pays for rfa years blended with a 2-3 years of ufa for a player that is largely unproven. Non of them have been a 2D on a cup team facing superstars and has performed. And the majority of these deals were rfa year deals.
- sditulli

all I am saying is you keep highly overvaluing dumo. in no way should dumo get 5.5 mil. also the people I mentioned was not me just taking some peoples names. I took it from General fanagers tweet about comparable contracts to the contract of the arizona player you mentioned. Dumo will lose some ufa years probably in his next contract like alot of players do. so what? he can cash in after that like most players do. You keep acting like he is a top 2 defensemen... he is not. he is a top 4 defensemen (atm) that broke out this year and was kinda good together as a pair with letang.
Klefbom: http://public.tableau.com...NT5WCJ?:display_count=yes

Klingberg: http://public.tableau.com...ZBRNXT?:display_count=yes

Hamonic: http://public.tableau.com...438GFW?:display_count=yes

Ekholm: http://public.tableau.com...GPRBQ3?:display_count=yes

Murphy: http://public.tableau.com...75RX3X?:display_count=yes

Klefbom signed his contract at the same point of nhl production as dumo but he's younger and its mostly rfa years.

Its like you guys are idiots and can't differentiate between contracts signed on guys whose rights are controlled by rfa status and guys who will be looking for mostly ufa deals. klefbom is a maata contract that mostly pays for rfa years blended with a 2-3 years of ufa for a player that is largely unproven. Non of them have been a 2D on a cup team facing superstars and has performed. And the majority of these deals were rfa year deals.
- sditulli

all I am saying is you keep highly overvaluing dumo. in no way should dumo get 5.5 mil. also the people I mentioned was not me just taking some peoples names. I took it from General fanagers tweet about comparable contracts to the contract of the arizona player you mentioned. Dumo will lose some ufa years probably in his next contract like alot of players do. so what? he can cash in after that like most players do. You keep acting like he is a top 2 defensemen... he is not. he is a top 4 defensemen (atm) that broke out this year and was kinda good together as a pair with letang.
Klefbom: http://public.tableau.com...NT5WCJ?:display_count=yes

Klingberg: http://public.tableau.com...ZBRNXT?:display_count=yes

Hamonic: http://public.tableau.com...438GFW?:display_count=yes

Ekholm: http://public.tableau.com...GPRBQ3?:display_count=yes

Murphy: http://public.tableau.com...75RX3X?:display_count=yes
- martox

I tend to agree here.. until Dumo starts putting up more points, I really am not sure if he's a 5mil+ d-man...

all I am saying is you keep highly overvaluing dumo. in no way should dumo get 5.5 mil. also the people I mentioned was not me just taking some peoples names. I took it from General fanagers tweet about comparable contracts to the contract of the arizona player you mentioned. Dumo will lose some ufa years probably in his next contract like alot of players do. so what? he can cash in after that like most players do. You keep acting like he is a top 2 defensemen... he is not. he is a top 4 defensemen (atm) that broke out this year and was kinda good together as a pair with letang.
Klefbom: http://public.tableau.com...NT5WCJ?:display_count=yes

Klingberg: http://public.tableau.com...ZBRNXT?:display_count=yes

Hamonic: http://public.tableau.com...438GFW?:display_count=yes

Ekholm: http://public.tableau.com...GPRBQ3?:display_count=yes

Murphy: http://public.tableau.com...75RX3X?:display_count=yes
- martox

I'm acting like he's a 2nd pairing dman. Good 2nd pairing guys run 5 + UFA. I know what he is. But your guys aren't comps. Most were 4-5 years from UFA when signing deals. Dumo is 2 years. Nisky, carle, orpik (ok that guy just got overpaid) were all brought in as 2nd pairing UFA dman at 5.5. I think Dumo is Paul Martin. His UFA years are 5 actually kind of a bit more since they gave term to a guy that may be about to decline at his age.

I tend to agree here.. until Dumo starts putting up more points, I really am not sure if he's a 5mil+ d-man...
- j.boyd919

Currently he's a 3 to 4 per in my opinion and that's mainly due to his production totals...but I think we see his production go up this year. Watching his play last season and playoffs you would of thought he had more points than he did. RW had some fancy stat graph showing that he should of had around 10 goals last season based on a bunch of other factors.

I just think he's still projecting upward. That he will still get better, perhaps not leaps and bounds better, but at least a little bit none the less.

Currently he's a 3 to 4 per in my opinion and that's mainly due to his production totals...but I think we see his production go up this year. Watching his play last season and playoffs you would of thought he had more points than he did. RW had some fancy stat graph showing that he should of had around 10 goals last season based on a bunch of other factors.

I just think he's still projecting upward. That he will still get better, perhaps not leaps and bounds better, but at least a little bit none the less.
- MattStrat

Oh of course. I agree too, I think he'll hover around 25-30 points and I would like to think he gets a similar deal to Maatta (cap hit wise, I understand Maatta is 21 and the actual contracts aren't comparable), maybe 4.25 per.. although it might be more just for the sake of buying a few UFA years.

Currently he's a 3 to 4 per in my opinion and that's mainly due to his production totals...but I think we see his production go up this year. Watching his play last season and playoffs you would of thought he had more points than he did. RW had some fancy stat graph showing that he should of had around 10 goals last season based on a bunch of other factors.

I just think he's still projecting upward. That he will still get better, perhaps not leaps and bounds better, but at least a little bit none the less.
- MattStrat

I think he can get into the 30-40 pt range. I like his offensive game as he does seem to jump into plays and have some skill. 40-50 if he really hits his ceiling. If we have any hope of getting him into the mid 4 area on salary I think we need to sign him before the new year. Usually 1 year and some months of actual NHL time is when most of the guys who turned into good value were signed, but dumo is already a good bit older and closer to ufa status.

Kreiky! And here we have the troll in has natural habitat! The behavior is very peculiar on this one. He baits his natural prey, the Penguins fans, by posing as one of them and then snatches them up while they're unsuspecting. During mating season, you can hear his typical calls of "Butthurt" and "Eurotrash" as he attempts to lure in his mate, Sammy87.

All around fascinating specimen.
- Victoro311

I mean stats are dead-on anisimov and soderberg. They are both like 4.5 (not counting last regular season, but his playoff stats were better than anything those two have done...so averages out to them). So I'm guess UFA value is 4.5.
- sditulli

Both of which are 2Cs on their team (I guess Sods is debatable with all the line shuffling that goes on in Colorado). 4.75 mil is very reasonable to pay a 2C who has consistently put up ~50 points since breaking into the NHL, and he put up those points as a 3C in Boston and with bad line mates/blue liners in Colorado. That's a guy that is proven to be successful when thrown into various positions.

On the other hand, Bonino's production fluctuates very much depending on what situation he's in. He was ok, but not spectacular on the Ducks until that super deep 2013 team where he was able to get some really good line mates that he meshed with well, pretty much flopped in Vancouver as a 2C, and was a mediocre 3C here until he got thrown on HBK. That's a lot of mediocrity mixed with flashes of brilliance. If you can't keep HBK together and Bones reverts back to mediocrity, then that 4.5-5 mil that people keep suggesting is going sting given that over 50% of our cap is tied up long term in Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel, Maatta, and goaltending. At that point, why did we even trade Brandon Sutter? Giving Bonino that type of money is the same general concept as giving Sutter that type of money, its just that everyone hated Sutter and Bonino turned into a fan favorite due to HBK, but need I remind everyone of his whipping boy status before hand?

Semi-unrelated but I have a pretty low opinion of Anisimov. He's basically the Russian Brandon Sutter and his success is directly linked to Kane and Panarin. He's overpaid, but 4.5 isn't an overpayment for a 2C, so I guess if he's in that position moving forward its stomach able.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BwK2ECscX4
found this entertaining to watch

Both of which are 2Cs on their team (I guess Sods is debatable with all the line shuffling that goes on in Colorado). 4.75 mil is very reasonable to pay a 2C who has consistently put up ~50 points since breaking into the NHL, and he put up those points as a 3C in Boston and with bad line mates/blue liners in Colorado. That's a guy that is proven to be successful when thrown into various positions.

On the other hand, Bonino's production fluctuates very much depending on what situation he's in. He was ok, but not spectacular on the Ducks until that super deep 2013 team where he was able to get some really good line mates that he meshed with well, pretty much flopped in Vancouver as a 2C, and was a mediocre 3C here until he got thrown on HBK. That's a lot of mediocrity mixed with flashes of brilliance. If you can't keep HBK together and Bones reverts back to mediocrity, then that 4.5-5 mil that people keep suggesting is going sting given that over 50% of our cap is tied up long term in Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel, Maatta, and goaltending. At that point, why did we even trade Brandon Sutter? Giving Bonino that type of money is the same general concept as giving Sutter that type of money, its just that everyone hated Sutter and Bonino turned into a fan favorite due to HBK, but need I remind everyone of his whipping boy status before hand?

Semi-unrelated but I have a pretty low opinion of Anisimov. He's basically the Russian Brandon Sutter and his success is directly linked to Kane and Panarin. He's overpaid, but 4.5 isn't an overpayment for a 2C, so I guess if he's in that position moving forward its stomach able.
- Victoro311

I don't have much of an opinion of anisimov. But now your pretty much arguing....but but ok they have the same average stats and hero charts but boninos stats don't count. That is poor logic and not analytical.

I don't care if a guy is a 3c or 2c. Its just a label.

I can understand saying we can't afford him which may be the case, but I also do not see us easily replacing him. Having a quality 3c is a pretty important for winning a cup. He should put up 45-50 pts this on hbk. He will have offers in the price range I suggest.

http://nhlnumbers.com/201...ckey-analytics-roundtable


Good read about fancy stats

I don't have much of an opinion of anisimov. But now your pretty much arguing....but but ok they have the same average stats and hero charts but boninos stats don't count. That is poor logic and not analytical.

I don't care if a guy is a 3c or 2c. Its just a label.

I can understand saying we can't afford him which may be the case, but I also do not see us easily replacing him. Having a quality 3c is a pretty important for winning a cup. He should put up 45-50 pts this on hbk. He will have offers in the price range I suggest.
- sditulli

Do Bonino and Soderberg actually have the same underlying numbers over the past three seasons?

Bonino's underlying numbers weren't stellar for his career as of the time of us acquiring him. Which feeds into my argument that his usage is inflating his stats.