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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Cousins, Forward Numbers Game, Laberge, Alumni & More
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flyers4487
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jamison, PA
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jul 15 @ 9:02 AM ET
That's part of the problem with the flawed statistics that are used. They're simply wrong. Faceoffs are so insignificant that the Flyers pretty much ran Giroux into the ground sending him out for defensive zone faceoffs. Faceoffs labeled as fairly insignificant is complete nonsense. They're very important.
- MJL

Hence why that signing is most likely good for about 10-20 extra points lol
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 15 @ 9:03 AM ET
To be fair, I do think hes better defensively than most of us are giving him credit for. And if theres anything going for him...he has been used almost exclusively in defensive situations.

To me it just feels a little "passive box-ish." Like oooooh look how good we are at defense! Literally, if nothing else...it at least provides a veteran depth option as a 13th forward

- YuenglingJagr


I'm not saying it's a horrible signing (see: Stortini, Zack), I just don't think he's a player that we needed to add. He has a certain skillset that could be beneficial to the Flyers, but I don't think he, specifically, was a crucial signing.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 15 @ 9:04 AM ET
That's part of the problem with the flawed statistics that are used. They're simply wrong. Faceoffs are so insignificant that the Flyers pretty much ran Giroux into the ground sending him out for defensive zone faceoffs. Faceoffs labeled as fairly insignificant is complete nonsense. They're very important.
- MJL


hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:06 AM ET
That's part of the problem with the flawed statistics that are used. They're simply wrong. Faceoffs are so insignificant that the Flyers pretty much ran Giroux into the ground sending him out for defensive zone faceoffs. Faceoffs labeled as fairly insignificant is complete nonsense. They're very important.
- MJL


Agreed, its where possession starts and the game is controlled.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 15 @ 9:08 AM ET
Agreed, its where possession starts and the game is controlled.
- hockeylover


They do a faceoff every time a new line comes out on the ice now?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 15 @ 9:15 AM ET
He's been a good PK guy for years. His possession metrics are skewed heavily by his usage, as are his GF/GA stats. Granted, even with better usage, he'd likely be no better than average in either of those areas statistically. His DZ start numbers are staggering-like 80% DZ starts.

But he is good in his own end, and is a good PK guy-plus he's an outstanding faceoff guy. Key for me is, having Gordon means less Giroux taking DZ faceoffs because the coach doesn't trust Bellemare or whomever else. Less PK time for Giroux, so he can rest more and be utilized more as an offensive weapon.

I think if you put him between Lyubimov & Read, his deficiencies will be masked and you'll have an effective player who fills definite needs and limits the heavy lifting that had to be done in the past by Giroux.

- Jsaquella


I'm not saying he shouldn't have a spot. I just think there should be a little more competition for his spot than they've been saying.

I don't know anything about Lyubimov, but using Read to offset Gordon's possession deficiencies would definitely help. I just don't like the idea of using Read as a 4th liner when he's one of the better possession guys on the team. I don't like using Gordon as a top 9 guy because he doesn't do anything offensively, so it's hard for me to envision them together very often.

I've always been in the camp of focusing more on matchups and not zone starts. If the opposing team throws out the 3rd line for an offensive zone face-off, I'm ok with matching Laughton-Cousins-Read against them. I think Giroux was used a little too much based on zone starts (the loss of Couturier certainly had an impact as well).

Like you said though, if Gordon can add value on the PK, then he should have a spot. If not, then there is no reason to play him over a more skilled forward.

I still see the 4th line in the NHL as an area where teams can really exploit others' conservatism. Most teams fill out their 4th lines with passive players who produce no offense. Why not just put more skill down there and take advantage of those 5 minutes each game when 4th liners are matched against each other? I know special teams matter, but I still think those 5 ES minutes each night are there for the taking if some coach/GM is ballsy enough to do it.
hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:18 AM ET
They do a faceoff every time a new line comes out on the ice now?
- YuenglingJagr


My point is that faceoffs are an important part of the game. As MJL pointed out, that is an aspect that those fancy stats do not always take into account.
flyers4487
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jamison, PA
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jul 15 @ 9:18 AM ET
My point is that faceoffs are an important part of the game. As MJL pointed out, that is an aspect that those fancy stats do not always take into account.
- hockeylover

^
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 15 @ 9:20 AM ET
My point is that faceoffs are an important part of the game. As MJL pointed out, that is an aspect that those fancy stats do not always take into account.
- hockeylover


They do take face-offs into account and they've shown that they aren't particularly important during ES
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:22 AM ET
My application is in for the habs analytics job. Wait til they see the number fudging I can get done
- Just5


I think all you have to do is laugh at Bergevin's jokes and agree with everything he says
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 15 @ 9:22 AM ET
My point is that faceoffs are an important part of the game. As MJL pointed out, that is an aspect that those fancy stats do not always take into account.
- hockeylover



They try and take into account, they just do a bad job of it using a narrow set of chosen parameters. They're flawed like most analytics fans have access to are.
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Jul 15 @ 9:26 AM ET
the flyers have created some competition for the bottom 6 spots; that's good. Just because they have volume in players doesn't mean it will be good enough. Not sure how anyone can count on Lyubimov to have a spot on the roster at this point.

Gordon should help on the pk by default. However if someone else shows they can help in that area and offer something more Gordon will be in the AHL like some others may be.

Will prospects like leier, martel and the like get a legit shot to make this team based on the current players on the roster?
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 15 @ 9:27 AM ET
My point is that faceoffs are an important part of the game. As MJL pointed out, that is an aspect that those fancy stats do not always take into account.
- hockeylover


Okay explain why
hockeylover
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: There's always next year., NT
Joined: 08.03.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:28 AM ET
They do take face-offs into account and they've shown that they aren't particularly important during ES
- PhillySportsGuy


Ehh, no worries. I just believe that they are important, as winning the draw gets you possession of the puck and starts the offensive game for you.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:28 AM ET
I'm not saying he shouldn't have a spot. I just think there should be a little more competition for his spot than they've been saying.

I don't know anything about Lyubimov, but using Read to offset Gordon's possession deficiencies would definitely help. I just don't like the idea of using Read as a 4th liner when he's one of the better possession guys on the team. I don't like using Gordon as a top 9 guy because he doesn't do anything offensively, so it's hard for me to envision them together very often.

I've always been in the camp of focusing more on matchups and not zone starts. If the opposing team throws out the 3rd line for an offensive zone face-off, I'm ok with matching Laughton-Cousins-Read against them. I think Giroux was used a little too much based on zone starts (the loss of Couturier certainly had an impact as well).

Like you said though, if Gordon can add value on the PK, then he should have a spot. If not, then there is no reason to play him over a more skilled forward.

I still see the 4th line in the NHL as an area where teams can really exploit others' conservatism. Most teams fill out their 4th lines with passive players who produce no offense. Why not just put more skill down there and take advantage of those 5 minutes each game when 4th liners are matched against each other? I know special teams matter, but I still think those 5 ES minutes each night are there for the taking if some coach/GM is ballsy enough to do it.

- PhillySportsGuy


When I look at the lines I see 5 definite top 6 guys. Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Simmonds & Schenn. For that last top six spot you have a few options: Raffl, Laughton, Weal or maybe Konecny.

For my third line, I'm looking at either Raffl or Laughton as the left winger, Cousins or Laughton as the center and Weise as the RW. Both his production last year and Hextall's comments make it more than clear they see him as a top 9 guy and not a 4th liner.

That leaves Read, Gordon and what is left over: Lyubimov, VandeVelde, Bellemare, Leier, Bardreau, etc. I don't see it as using Read and, say Lyubimov to cover Gordon's flaws, I just see it as how the roster shakes out.

As for whether or not he's an upgrade, VandeVelde and Bellemare were poor possession guys and didn't get anywhere near the heavy D usage that Gordon got, so in replacing one of them alone, I see Gordon as an upgrade
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jul 15 @ 9:29 AM ET
I'd have him ahead of both Bellemare and VandeVelde. He's a good PK guy and faceoff guy, and those factors alone will free up Giroux's workload. With the additions of Lyubimov, Weise and having Read, Cousins, Laughton and maybe Raffl as bottom six options, the can have a seriously solid bottom 6.
- Jsaquella


in addition to our bottom 6 needing to be relied on too much, and our lines constructing out to really line 1, line 2 and line 4a and 4b, we really needed to solidify this part of the roster. not only does adding guys who bring bottom 6 mentalities increase competition, in Gordon, you get a guy who can also take solid minutes on the PK as well as one of the best faceoff men in the league. coupled with the fact Giroux should stay somewhat more fresh and have more opportunities in the offensive zone, in my opinion it was a necessary signing and will have good effects up and down the entire roster.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:30 AM ET
the flyers have created some competition for the bottom 6 spots; that's good. Just because they have volume in players doesn't mean it will be good enough. Not sure how anyone can count on Lyubimov to have a spot on the roster at this point.

Gordon should help on the pk by default. However if someone else shows they can help in that area and offer something more Gordon will be in the AHL like some others may be.

Will prospects like leier, martel and the like get a legit shot to make this team based on the current players on the roster?

- rinaldo


I think guys like Leier and Bardreau will. Martel and Weal need to be in scoring line roles to be effective. Are they going to be good enough to beat out a current guy on one of those lines?
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jul 15 @ 9:33 AM ET
Hence why that signing is most likely good for about 10-20 extra points lol
- flyers4487


i agree, its not just adding a faceoff guy and pk guy, its allowing G to start more in the offensive zone, stay fresher towards the end of the game, take up minutes where he wouldnt necessarily be in a position to score as much. adding offense in a backdoor sort of way
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:33 AM ET
in addition to our bottom 6 needing to be relied on too much, and our lines constructing out to really line 1, line 2 and line 4a and 4b, we really needed to solidify this part of the roster. not only does adding guys who bring bottom 6 mentalities increase competition, in Gordon, you get a guy who can also take solid minutes on the PK as well as one of the best faceoff men in the league. coupled with the fact Giroux should stay somewhat more fresh and have more opportunities in the offensive zone, in my opinion it was a necessary signing and will have good effects up and down the entire roster.
- sjk540


They have quality depth unlike last year. The biggest concerns are young guys stepping up and balancing the lines. But they could easily end up with a bottom six of Raffl, Cousins & Weise on one line and Bellemare/Lyubimov, Gordon & Read on another. That's pretty solid on paper, especially if Cousins can take a step forward in his game.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 15 @ 9:33 AM ET
He's already decent at moving the puck out of the zone and up the ice. For me he doesn't necessarily have to take those duties. He could see PP2 time as well.
- Just5


Does he? How many of his faceoffs in the defensive zone arent at the start of his shift?
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jul 15 @ 9:34 AM ET
I think guys like Leier and Bardreau will. Martel and Weal need to be in scoring line roles to be effective. Are they going to be good enough to beat out a current guy on one of those lines?
- Jsaquella


Given the right opportunity, i think weal could excel in a scoring line role. now, can he overtake guys like raffl, laughton, etc., in order to do it, only camp will tell. but if weal can't get a top 6 spot, best spot for him in the AHL in order to keep up the role he's intended to play. no reason to force a square peg in a round hole.
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

Jul 15 @ 9:35 AM ET
They have quality depth unlike last year. The biggest concerns are young guys stepping up and balancing the lines. But they could easily end up with a bottom six of Raffl, Cousins & Weise on one line and Bellemare/Lyubimov, Gordon & Read on another. That's pretty solid on paper, especially if Cousins can take a step forward in his game.
- Jsaquella


indirectly confirmed you're hope for laughton as a top 6 guy, i like it!

EDIT: yes indeed, that would make a solid bottom 6 on paper, and almost all of those guys are PK'ers, so we can allow the top 6 (except coots of course) to focus much more on their offensive games
flyers4487
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jamison, PA
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jul 15 @ 9:36 AM ET
When I look at the lines I see 5 definite top 6 guys. Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Simmonds & Schenn. For that last top six spot you have a few options: Raffl, Laughton, Weal or maybe Konecny.

For my third line, I'm looking at either Raffl or Laughton as the left winger, Cousins or Laughton as the center and Weise as the RW. Both his production last year and Hextall's comments make it more than clear they see him as a top 9 guy and not a 4th liner.

That leaves Read, Gordon and what is left over: Lyubimov, VandeVelde, Bellemare, Leier, Bardreau, etc. I don't see it as using Read and, say Lyubimov to cover Gordon's flaws, I just see it as how the roster shakes out.

As for whether or not he's an upgrade, VandeVelde and Bellemare were poor possession guys and didn't get anywhere near the heavy D usage that Gordon got, so in replacing one of them alone, I see Gordon as an upgrade

- Jsaquella

But they were fantastic at keeping the puck in the opponents zone at clutch times during close games, that has to count for something
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 15 @ 9:37 AM ET
indirectly confirmed you're hope for laughton as a top 6 guy, i like it!

EDIT: yes indeed, that would make a solid bottom 6 on paper, and almost all of those guys are PK'ers, so we can allow the top 6 (except coots of course) to focus much more on their offensive games

- sjk540



Or he has him in the AHL haha
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 15 @ 9:38 AM ET
Given the right opportunity, i think weal could excel in a scoring line role. now, can he overtake guys like raffl, laughton, etc., in order to do it, only camp will tell. but if weal can't get a top 6 spot, best spot for him in the AHL in order to keep up the role he's intended to play. no reason to force a square peg in a round hole.
- sjk540


Hextall has said if a young guy wins a job, they'll fit him in somehow.

My biggest concern for Weal is strength. He's fine in space, but when teams get him along the boards, he's looked fairly easy to contain. Giroux is similar in size, but he's a beast along the walls, because he's a strong little bastard.

The blessing with Raffl is, he can slide and still be an effective player. They need Laughton and Cousins to solidify their play. If both of those guys can step it up, the bottom six will be a strong point
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