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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: 3-on-3 Tourney, Bill Barber, Alumni
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Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 11 @ 8:46 PM ET
I have similar concerns. He's always managed to produce at an acceptable rate, 18-20 goals, 45 points or so. The thing is, last season he shot at a high rate and was a consistent presence, even in games where he didn't score. That was missing before.

Is that worth a long term deal worth significant money? That's the hard question. I think Schenn is a solid player and capable of putting it together and becoming a consistent 25 goal, 55-60 point guy. But there's a decent chance that his play in the second half was nothing more than a fluke.

- Jsaquella


2014/15: +0.38% RelCF% (adj); 10.31 individual shots/60 ; 9.89% shooting%; 1.40 points/60

2015/16: ; -0.26% RelCF%; 12.81 individual shots/60 ; 12.07% shooting%; 1.97 points/60

I don't want to dismiss that he did improve this year in certain areas, and that certainly playing a more steady role aided him, but I still worry that he didn't make some big leap in his consistency and all-around game, but rather was the beneficiary of a bit of good luck. He scored more consistently, but I still am unsure if he played more consistently. I like Schenn, and he's a good, useful complimentary scorer. I don't think he's regressing to something crazy like a 17g/40p guy. But I could see him settling in as a 23-25g/50p guy who can put up some good numbers in a good role, but who isn't irreplaceable and who's objective, all-around value may be outweighed by a big contract. They need him this year...beyond that? I'm unsure.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 11 @ 8:51 PM ET
2014/15: +0.38% RelCF% (adj); 10.31 individual shots/60 ; 9.89% shooting%; 1.40 points/60

2015/16: ; -0.26% RelCF%; 12.81 individual shots/60 ; 12.07% shooting%; 1.97 points/60

I don't want to dismiss that he did improve this year in certain areas, and that certainly playing a more steady role aided him, but I still worry that he didn't make some big leap in his consistency and all-around game, but rather was the beneficiary of a bit of good luck. He scored more consistently, but I still am unsure if he played more consistently. I like Schenn, and he's a good, useful complimentary scorer. I don't think he's regressing to something crazy like a 17g/40p guy. But I could see him settling in as a 23-25g/50p guy who can put up some good numbers in a good role, but who isn't irreplaceable and who's objective, all-around value may be outweighed by a big contract. They need him this year...beyond that? I'm unsure.

- Mononoke


Yeah, he definitely fills a short term need. Long term, he may well not. If guys like Lindblom, Konecny and Aube Kubel do bloom, his contract may be a bit of a roadblock for them.

You want to make a safe bet when paying for potential. I'm ultimately OK with a longer term, so long as it's a moveable cap hit. That way you've bought yourself time for the kids to develop and have a guy you can flip for assets.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 11 @ 8:58 PM ET
I do question whether Hexy actually goes to arbitration with Schenn. It's such a terrible process, and he hasn't yet.

If he bites the bullet on a 4 year deal, it's far from a bad deal, and he is still a tradable, useful player. 2/3 year deals make no sense.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 9:01 PM ET
Absolutely. But he had little chance of winning a significant award, so his contract was going to be a lot easier to hammer out than Schenn's.
- Jsaquella


No doubt about that. All Hextall had to do was offer him a significant raise on his AHL part of his deal, which I think was going to happen anyway, and it was a done deal.

I would speculate that Schenn is probably looking for around 6M a year, with Hextall wanting around 5M. Both sides to this point are standing their ground, at this point. I don't think Schenn deserves 6, and Hextall probably doesn't either.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 9:04 PM ET


The other thing with Brayden, is he a guy that can initiate offense? Or is he more of a secondary player that benefits from the puck skill of others. I don't agree with giving guys like that huge deals.

- flyer_nutter



Players that can initiate play on their own and carry the team offensively, are few and far between. The overwhelming majority of players are not that. 4 years for 5M a year, is not a huge deal.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 11 @ 9:08 PM ET
2014/15: +0.38% RelCF% (adj); 10.31 individual shots/60 ; 9.89% shooting%; 1.40 points/60

2015/16: ; -0.26% RelCF%; 12.81 individual shots/60 ; 12.07% shooting%; 1.97 points/60

I don't want to dismiss that he did improve this year in certain areas, and that certainly playing a more steady role aided him, but I still worry that he didn't make some big leap in his consistency and all-around game, but rather was the beneficiary of a bit of good luck. He scored more consistently, but I still am unsure if he played more consistently. I like Schenn, and he's a good, useful complimentary scorer. I don't think he's regressing to something crazy like a 17g/40p guy. But I could see him settling in as a 23-25g/50p guy who can put up some good numbers in a good role, but who isn't irreplaceable and who's objective, all-around value may be outweighed by a big contract. They need him this year...beyond that? I'm unsure.

- Mononoke


I'm not unsure. They need him beyond this year, or a reasonable replacement. You cannot guarantee any of the young prospects reach the level that he is currently at. He is a valuable asset, and it doesn't make any sense not to sign him to a fair market value deal. He certainly had some good luck, but a player makes his luck. His level of play, was why he received some good puck luck. 25 goal, 50 point players are valuable in this league.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Jul 11 @ 9:10 PM ET
seriously. ban worthy.
- hammarby31


henjoy your ban
twotoekenn
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: perkasie, PA
Joined: 12.16.2009

Jul 11 @ 9:22 PM ET
Thanks for posting that but lord what an amazing puff piece around an interview he only pulled a handful of new quotes out of.

Maybe it was a good piece in context of their coverage but as a stand alone feature there wasn't any bite to it negatively or positively.

- mayorofangrytown


It was kinda fluffy but with all the negativity surrounding him it was a refreshing read.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jul 11 @ 10:00 PM ET
We would survive the loss of Schenns production.

We have overcome the loss of:
Lindros
LeClair
Recchi
Gagne
Richards
Carter
Hartnell
Forsberg - Sorry Crime
Briere

We will survive the loss of Schenn.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 11 @ 10:03 PM ET
I'd honestly prefer a 1 year deal to something like 5 years or whatever qualifies as "long-term." This Schenn contract is just such a tricky situation. I personally am not sure he improves upon his play -- more likely he regresses. Even if he scores at similar rates, his average all-around play always gives me pause as for viewing him as a core piece.

The team desperately needs scoring this year. They can get that through arbitration. After that 1 year, when players like NAK, Konecny (he's a wildcard this year even), Lindblom start filtering in, with guys like Laberge, Allison, Rubtsov, and surely a surprise or two around the corner, I'm worried Schenn's contract becomes a hindrance and an unnecessary one. Add in the defensemen (hopefully) needing big contracts too. You can't count your chickens before they hatch, so they can still sign him long term this season. And at that point, I'll err on the side of him not upping his value. If he somehow does? Then he ups his trade value too in the process.

- Mononoke


I'm fine with one year.

But if he scores or even paces for 60 points he's going to get a $6m or more AAV on his next contract.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 11 @ 10:42 PM ET
I'm fine with one year.

But if he scores or even paces for 60 points he's going to get a $6m or more AAV on his next contract.

- Feanor


Then sell high when he's still under control.

Like I said, though Ronny is playing hardball, I still am skeptical he gets to arbitration.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jul 11 @ 10:58 PM ET
Then sell high when he's still under control.

Like I said, though Ronny is playing hardball, I still am skeptical he gets to arbitration.

- Mononoke


I'm concerned with 2 things.

1. Either Schenn over values what he brings to the table or Hexy doesn't want to pay him 5+m a season. I bet you Hexy is where I am. 4m not a dime more.

2. Hexy is about to trade Schenn and is working as hard as possible to get him signed as low as possible to boost his value.

MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jul 12 @ 12:02 AM ET
Ghost RFA
MDZ RFA
Have to Replace Streit and Shultz (with our young guys)
Hagg 2 years until RFA
Prov 3 years until RFA
Konecny 3 years until RFA
Laughton 1 year until RFA

Mason and Neuvy both on last year of their contracts as well.

Can the Flyers afford to keep Schenn if they don't move the dead weight on the team?

Assuming the cap goes up a massive 4 million, we'll be sitting at 77 million cap ceiling.

24.833 million tied up in Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, and Coots alone.
Another 8.325 tied up in Weise, Raffle, and Read.

33.158 million tied up in those 7 players.

8.35 million tied up in MacDonald and Gudas.

7 Forwards and 2 Dmen - [url]41.508 million

Ghost will likely get a nice pay day, if we're lucky 3-4 millionish. MDZ stays around 3.8. Another 7.8 tied up in 2 more players. Brings our total to [url]49.308 million.

Leaves us with 28 million to fill our the roster. Currently sitting at 7 forwards, 4 Dmen, and no goalies.

I think that explains why Hexy is signing a lot of those low risk high reward guys like Lyb or whatever the russian guy's name is.

Moving MacDonald, Raffl, and Read should be done, even if the return is a vomit bag.





steelydan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 04.16.2009

Jul 12 @ 12:27 AM ET
Ghost RFA
MDZ RFA
Have to Replace Streit and Shultz (with our young guys)
Hagg 2 years until RFA
Prov 3 years until RFA
Konecny 3 years until RFA
Laughton 1 year until RFA

Mason and Neuvy both on last year of their contracts as well.

Can the Flyers afford to keep Schenn if they don't move the dead weight on the team?

Assuming the cap goes up a massive 4 million, we'll be sitting at 77 million cap ceiling.

24.833 million tied up in Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, and Coots alone.
Another 8.325 tied up in Weise, Raffle, and Read.

33.158 million tied up in those 7 players.

8.35 million tied up in MacDonald and Gudas.

7 Forwards and 2 Dmen -

- MikesPillBottle[url]41.508 million

Ghost will likely get a nice pay day, if we're lucky 3-4 millionish. MDZ stays around 3.8. Another 7.8 tied up in 2 more players. Brings our total to [url]49.308 million.

Leaves us with 28 million to fill our the roster. Currently sitting at 7 forwards, 4 Dmen, and no goalies.

I think that explains why Hexy is signing a lot of those low risk high reward guys like Lyb or whatever the russian guy's name is.

Moving MacDonald, Raffl, and Read should be done, even if the return is a vomit bag.


Totally. Screw secondary scoring! I'll take that vomit bag and *gasp* cap space! Get rid of Raffl and Read and the lack of scoring will be much more evident than it was last year.

Low-risk-high-reward moves are great, when you're in a scenario where you can afford to have a player or two not pan out. The Flyers, and their lack of scoring, are not really in that position. I'm all for bringing in one or two of those guys in lieu of VdV or Bellemarre, but we've seen Raffl and Read score at a decent clip in the NHL. Not sure why they should be dropped for "vomit bags" while we fill their spots with KHL hopefuls. For every success, there's a Gagner, Medvedev, etc.
MikesPillBottle
Joined: 07.01.2015

Jul 12 @ 12:53 AM ET
Totally. Screw secondary scoring! I'll take that vomit bag and *gasp* cap space! Get rid of Raffl and Read and the lack of scoring will be much more evident than it was last year.

Low-risk-high-reward moves are great, when you're in a scenario where you can afford to have a player or two not pan out. The Flyers, and their lack of scoring, are not really in that position. I'm all for bringing in one or two of those guys in lieu of VdV or Bellemarre, but we've seen Raffl and Read score at a decent clip in the NHL. Not sure why they should be dropped for "vomit bags" while we fill their spots with KHL hopefuls. For every success, there's a Gagner, Medvedev, etc.

- steelydan


Raffle and Read rarely score. Read makes more than he is worth.

Why the he'll would we keep him?
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 12 @ 7:54 AM ET
Ghost RFA
MDZ RFA
Have to Replace Streit and Shultz (with our young guys)
Hagg 2 years until RFA
Prov 3 years until RFA
Konecny 3 years until RFA
Laughton 1 year until RFA

Mason and Neuvy both on last year of their contracts as well.

Can the Flyers afford to keep Schenn if they don't move the dead weight on the team?

Assuming the cap goes up a massive 4 million, we'll be sitting at 77 million cap ceiling.

24.833 million tied up in Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, and Coots alone.
Another 8.325 tied up in Weise, Raffle, and Read.

33.158 million tied up in those 7 players.

8.35 million tied up in MacDonald and Gudas.

7 Forwards and 2 Dmen -

- MikesPillBottle[url]41.508 million

Ghost will likely get a nice pay day, if we're lucky 3-4 millionish. MDZ stays around 3.8. Another 7.8 tied up in 2 more players. Brings our total to [url]49.308 million.

Leaves us with 28 million to fill our the roster. Currently sitting at 7 forwards, 4 Dmen, and no goalies.

I think that explains why Hexy is signing a lot of those low risk high reward guys like Lyb or whatever the russian guy's name is.

Moving MacDonald, Raffl, and Read should be done, even if the return is a vomit bag.


MDZ will get over 5 if he continues his play from the last two seasons. Ghost should also get more than 4. Hopefully goalies come in around 8 and roughly 10 million is plenty to sign the rest of the D and F given how many of them will be on 1 million dollar ELC salaries
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 12 @ 7:56 AM ET
Ghost RFA
MDZ RFA
Have to Replace Streit and Shultz (with our young guys)
Hagg 2 years until RFA
Prov 3 years until RFA
Konecny 3 years until RFA
Laughton 1 year until RFA

Mason and Neuvy both on last year of their contracts as well.

Can the Flyers afford to keep Schenn if they don't move the dead weight on the team?

Assuming the cap goes up a massive 4 million, we'll be sitting at 77 million cap ceiling.

24.833 million tied up in Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, and Coots alone.
Another 8.325 tied up in Weise, Raffle, and Read.

33.158 million tied up in those 7 players.

8.35 million tied up in MacDonald and Gudas.

7 Forwards and 2 Dmen -

- MikesPillBottle[url]41.508 million

Ghost will likely get a nice pay day, if we're lucky 3-4 millionish. MDZ stays around 3.8. Another 7.8 tied up in 2 more players. Brings our total to [url]49.308 million.

Leaves us with 28 million to fill our the roster. Currently sitting at 7 forwards, 4 Dmen, and no goalies.

I think that explains why Hexy is signing a lot of those low risk high reward guys like Lyb or whatever the russian guy's name is.

Moving MacDonald, Raffl, and Read should be done, even if the return is a vomit bag.


So Hextall signed this new guy from the KHL, so he can get rid of the dead wood like Raffl, who Hextall signed to a new 3 year contract? The Flyers can absolutely afford to keep Schenn.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 12 @ 7:57 AM ET
Raffle and Read rarely score. Read makes more than he is worth.

Why the he'll would we keep him?

- MikesPillBottle


Raffl has scored 34 goals the last 2 seasons.
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