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Forums :: Blog World :: Jared Crozier: Senators Find Taker For Chiasson Before Clock Strikes Midnight
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InSutterWeTrust
Calgary Flames
Location: AB
Joined: 08.09.2010

Jun 28 @ 7:48 AM ET
He's only 22, and has eno ugh potential and skill to be taken in the 2nd Rd. .......a little early to be called a career AHLer. Probably never going to be a top 4 but seems to have decent bottom pairing potential
- sensarmy_11

This is a more likely scenario for Sieloff. He was the final d cut 2 years ago, and he got a staph infection after playing only 2 games in Stockton. He would almost certainly have earned a call up that year because he probably should have made the team out of training camp. While out of the lineup, and also last year's draft that brought us Andersson and Kylington he has got stuck in the log jam of almost ready guys that are pushing for spots in Calgary. He is a 5-6 guy, not more, but probably a solid 6.
SensnRBs
Ottawa Senators
Location: it ain't cheatin' if ur wife is watching, ON
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 28 @ 7:50 AM ET
Fillip Foresberg signs for $ 6M over 6 years. It's not a direct comparable to Hoffman but it does raise some positives for the Sens. A few notable points. First, Foresberg is coming off entry level (being drafted in 2012) while Hoffman is coming off a 1 year 'show me what you got' arbitration award. Forsberg's contract will be all RFA years except for the last, while Hoffman - if he signs long term - will only have 1 year not eat UFA years. Here are the #s:

2014-2015: Hoffman (27G, 48PTs) Foresberg (26G, 63PTs)
2015-2016: Hoffman (29G, 59PTs) Foresberg (33G, 64PTs)

Sens shoulld give Hoffman should get 6-7 years @5.8-6.2M.
Sens should sign Ceci for 6 years @3.4-3.8M...but I'm ok w. bridge

- AlfieisKing

Mike Hoffman Contract

[quote


I am really hoping for less, but between the Forsberg signing and Andrew Shaw (14/20) getting 6 years at $4M .....

we aint gonna get Hoffman for anything close to $4M..... hopefully is closer to 5 than 6 ......
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jun 28 @ 8:08 AM ET
I am really hoping for less, but between the Forsberg signing and Andrew Shaw (14/20) getting 6 years at $4M .....

we aint gonna get Hoffman for anything close to $4M..... hopefully is closer to 5 than 6 ......

- SensnRBs

I agree about that but Hoffman has proven he's capable of scoring over 25g and likely 30g with a true #1C.

If I was his camp Id push for 6x6..... But 5.9 x 7 would be fine with me.
MaxTLimit
Ottawa Senators
Location: Middle 'o Nowehre, ON
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jun 28 @ 8:09 AM ET


2014-2015: Hoffman (27G, 48PTs) Foresberg (26G, 63PTs)
2015-2016: Hoffman (29G, 59PTs) Foresberg (33G, 64PTs)

Sens shoulld give Hoffman should get 6-7 years @5.8-6.2M.
Sens should sign Ceci for 6 years @3.4-3.8M...but I'm ok w. bridge

- AlfieisKing


Wait a sec. You are suggesting that Hoffman will get ( or should get ) about as much , or more than Forsberg. Forsberg is the larger, younger two way player who possesses better underlying stats. He's also produced more goals and points in total than Hoffman in fewer games while at a younger age. But the fact that Forsberg is coming off an ELC offsets that? I dunno...

If you are using these two as comparables, Hoffman at $5.5M may be a stretch. I see Hoffman at about $5.25M per. Certainly above the $3.5 it was reported the Sens offered him.
jaz258
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa
Joined: 02.04.2008

Jun 28 @ 8:48 AM ET
Are you completely unable to spell the GM's name? It is Dorion with an "on" not "an".

Small thing but jeez...
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 9:15 AM ET
Wait a sec. You are suggesting that Hoffman will get ( or should get ) about as much , or more than Forsberg. Forsberg is the larger, younger two way player who possesses better underlying stats. He's also produced more goals and points in total than Hoffman in fewer games while at a younger age. But the fact that Forsberg is coming off an ELC offsets that? I dunno...

If you are using these two as comparables, Hoffman at $5.5M may be a stretch. I see Hoffman at about $5.25M per. Certainly above the $3.5 it was reported the Sens offered him.

- MaxTLimit


it absolutely does. Forsberg's contract doesn't eat up any of his UFA deals as far as i know. the contract ends the first year he's eligible to be UFA. Whatever deal that Hoffman signs will be all UFA years (minus next year). that makes a HUGE difference in negotiations. The second you start eating up UFA years (where the players negotiating position is WAAAAAAAYYYYYYY stronger) then the deal will cost you more.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 9:20 AM ET
Wait a sec. You are suggesting that Hoffman will get ( or should get ) about as much , or more than Forsberg. Forsberg is the larger, younger two way player who possesses better underlying stats. He's also produced more goals and points in total than Hoffman in fewer games while at a younger age. But the fact that Forsberg is coming off an ELC offsets that? I dunno...

If you are using these two as comparables, Hoffman at $5.5M may be a stretch. I see Hoffman at about $5.25M per. Certainly above the $3.5 it was reported the Sens offered him.

- MaxTLimit


that was just his qualifying offer.....it's what they were required to offer him. they offer him what they have to, he says no, and then the negotiations begin.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 9:22 AM ET
This is a more likely scenario for Sieloff. He was the final d cut 2 years ago, and he got a staph infection after playing only 2 games in Stockton. He would almost certainly have earned a call up that year because he probably should have made the team out of training camp. While out of the lineup, and also last year's draft that brought us Andersson and Kylington he has got stuck in the log jam of almost ready guys that are pushing for spots in Calgary. He is a 5-6 guy, not more, but probably a solid 6.
- InSutterWeTrust


that's pretty much all i would expect from him. At the end of the day i don't think Ottawa would have qualified chiasson anyways (they did but i think it's because the trade was already worked out) so it's a free asset for us. you guys get a guy who has decent tools and hope that with a change of scenery can actually play up to or close to his potential.
MaxTLimit
Ottawa Senators
Location: Middle 'o Nowehre, ON
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jun 28 @ 10:08 AM ET
it absolutely does. Forsberg's contract doesn't eat up any of his UFA deals as far as i know. the contract ends the first year he's eligible to be UFA. Whatever deal that Hoffman signs will be all UFA years (minus next year). that makes a HUGE difference in negotiations. The second you start eating up UFA years (where the players negotiating position is WAAAAAAAYYYYYYY stronger) then the deal will cost you more.
- sensarmy_11

Forsberg will reach the number of games / age during the 2nd last season of his new contract.

I think you are over estimating the impact RFA/ UFA will have on large long term contracts. It certainly didn't seem to impact the overall value for the Tarasenko contract, for example. Usually bargain deals come from shorter bridge style deals. Historically speaking. Because they are both bargaining as RFA and are restricted to negotiating with one team the leverage difference isn't as high as you say. But we will see...

Also, the $3.5M reported offer was NOT the qualifying offer. However, it was just a rumor, so it isn't exactly something to take to seriously either.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 10:46 AM ET
Forsberg will reach the number of games / age during the 2nd last season of his new contract.
I think you are over estimating the impact RFA/ UFA will have on large long term contracts. It certainly didn't seem to impact the overall value for the Tarasenko contract, for example. Usually bargain deals come from shorter bridge style deals. Historically speaking. Because they are both bargaining as RFA and are restricted to negotiating with one team the leverage difference isn't as high as you say. But we will see...

Also, the $3.5M reported offer was NOT the qualifying offer. However, it was just a rumor, so it isn't exactly something to take to seriously either.

- MaxTLimit


i read it was all RFA years, but even if you're right the preds are paying mostly for RFA years.

tarasenko is not a good example....he's 3 years older than forsberg and a majority of his 7 year deal are UFA years. he'll be 31 or so when his deal expires.....forsberg will only be 26 or 27 i believe.

not really comparable.

i would actually say that hoffman's deal will be more comparable to tarasenko (not in terms of dollar value....I HOPE) but in terms of players negotiating position. on any deal that ottawa offers they're buying 1 year of RFA and the rest is UFA.

and i don't believe i'm overselling the difference/impact between RFA and UFA at all.......i think that's extremely important to the players. their UFA years are when all the power shifts to them instead of the team. that's a HUGE deal.
MaxTLimit
Ottawa Senators
Location: Middle 'o Nowehre, ON
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jun 28 @ 11:05 AM ET
i read it was all RFA years, but even if you're right the preds are paying mostly for RFA years.

tarasenko is not a good example....he's 3 years older than forsberg and a majority of his 7 year deal are UFA years. he'll be 31 or so when his deal expires.....forsberg will only be 26 or 27 i believe.

not really comparable.

- sensarmy_11


Tarasenko was 22 yo when he signed his contract coming off of his 3 year elc in which he played 2 ( mostly ) full seasons and less than half of his first year. He had slightly better production, and signed a slightly better contract. Seems like they are pretty damned comparable to me.

i would actually say that hoffman's deal will be more comparable to tarasenko (not in terms of dollar value....I HOPE) but in terms of players negotiating position. on any deal that ottawa offers they're buying 1 year of RFA and the rest is UFA.
- sensarmy_11
Hoffman is older, smaller, and has produced less than Tarasenko..by a pretty decent margin.

Tarasenko had signed his 2nd contract after his elc. Hoffman is signing his 4th contract. 3rd after his 3 year elc. They aren't really the same situation at all....at least from my perspective. One thing is for sure. Mike Hoffman is going to get paid.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 11:52 AM ET
Tarasenko was 22 yo when he signed his contract coming off of his 3 year elc in which he played 2 ( mostly ) full seasons and less than half of his first year. He had slightly better production, and signed a slightly better contract. Seems like they are pretty damned comparable to me.

Hoffman is older, smaller, and has produced less than Tarasenko..by a pretty decent margin.

Tarasenko had signed his 2nd contract after his elc. Hoffman is signing his 4th contract. 3rd after his 3 year elc. They aren't really the same situation at all....at least from my perspective. One thing is for sure. Mike Hoffman is going to get paid.

- MaxTLimit


wasn't comparing hoffman and tarasenko......clearly tarasenko is a far superior player.

was comparing the fact that both contracts will be buying a lot of UFA deals.....Forsberg's contract doesn't.

I expect that hoffman's deal will fall between 5 an 6 mil on maybe a 4 year term.
MaxTLimit
Ottawa Senators
Location: Middle 'o Nowehre, ON
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jun 28 @ 2:06 PM ET
wasn't comparing hoffman and tarasenko......clearly tarasenko is a far superior player.

was comparing the fact that both contracts will be buying a lot of UFA deals.....Forsberg's contract doesn't.

- sensarmy_11

I was more comparing Forsberg and his situation to Tarasenko to his situation when he signed his contract. At the time Tarasenko was younger and 4 RFA years were taken up by his new contract.

I expect that hoffman's deal will fall between 5 an 6 mil on maybe a 4 year term.
- sensarmy_11

I expect somewhere around $5M. Hoffman will be a very rich man.
Erik6Karlsson5
Ottawa Senators
Location: It's Knuckle Puck Time.., NB
Joined: 01.23.2013

Jun 28 @ 2:41 PM ET
Hoffman 5 years $25 mill. Get er done Dorion
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jun 28 @ 2:50 PM ET
People seemed to generally be on board with the idea of signing Brett Connolly... another interesting possibility would be Eric Staal, who finally seems to be less concerned with what jerseys his brothers are wearing and more concerned with getting his career back on track.

In addition to hoping that he can return to form, there's also an appealing short-term interest on his part to find a good opportunity to play. Given the expansion rules, he's most likely seeking a 1-year deal, and his C/W versatility would give the team a bit of insurance if one of Turris or Zibanejad sustains a long-term injury, or if they wanted to experiment with Zibanejad as a winger.


Hertlocker
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.06.2014

Jun 28 @ 3:03 PM ET
Wait a sec. You are suggesting that Hoffman will get ( or should get ) about as much , or more than Forsberg. Forsberg is the larger, younger two way player who possesses better underlying stats. He's also produced more goals and points in total than Hoffman in fewer games while at a younger age. But the fact that Forsberg is coming off an ELC offsets that? I dunno...

If you are using these two as comparables, Hoffman at $5.5M may be a stretch. I see Hoffman at about $5.25M per. Certainly above the $3.5 it was reported the Sens offered him.

- MaxTLimit



I am entirely with you on this. $5.25 sounds about right. And personally, I think four years is the ideal term and I'd be quite nervous about going anything beyond 5. An on-the-verge of 27 years old sniper historically has peaked or is in the midst of peaking regardless of when they first break in the league. Going beyond the age of 32 on a big dollar contract for a player of Hoffman's mould is rarely a pretty scene. There's a few exceptions to this rule and while Hoffman's game does heavily favour solid skating mechanics unlike say a Heatley, he unfortunately doesn't register with the Selanne's of the game.

From a management perspective, buying UFA years is one thing. Buying beyond known to be prime years is another. Often teams do have to tack on an extra year or two at a solid salary to get a lower cap hit. May very well be the case here too. But as a result, Hoffman definitely should not be breaking $6m as a result.

Beyond that, it's also still relevant to remember the big difference between the three discussed is you have two first rounders at 11th and 15th overall respectively (Tarasenko would have likely gone higher if not for the Russian stigma) vs a 5th round 130th overall pick. While Alfies and Datsyuks exist obviously, at this point in Hoffman's career and based on his development arc, his original draft position and the optics surrounding it or underlying reasons for it (presumably defensive shortcomings), these factors are going to have a hand in his final price. Fair or not. And since he's an RFA, Sens management is the one in the driver's seat, albeit driving a family friendly car.
nohtingbutnet
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.10.2016

Jun 28 @ 3:19 PM ET
So honestly what do we get in Chiasson?


You get a guy who is supposed to be good along the boards and in front of the net but isn't. He plays half the game on his ass and the other half outside the play. Other than that he's a good hockey player
MaxTLimit
Ottawa Senators
Location: Middle 'o Nowehre, ON
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jun 28 @ 3:28 PM ET
In addition to hoping that he can return to form, there's also an appealing short-term interest on his part to find a good opportunity to play. Given the expansion rules, he's most likely seeking a 1-year deal, and his C/W versatility would give the team a bit of insurance if one of Turris or Zibanejad sustains a long-term injury, or if they wanted to experiment with Zibanejad as a winger.
- khawk


If Stall is willing to sign for a good price, and short term I'd be interested. The thing is, at this stage and the way he's been playing I wouldn't put him on above Turris, or Zibanejad. He just isn't the player he used to be. If he is willing to play LW on the 2nd line, he may be able to rediscover some of his touch. I don't see it though.

I am entirely with you on this. $5.25 sounds about right. And personally, I think four years is the ideal term and I'd be quite nervous about going anything beyond 5. An on-the-verge of 27 years old sniper historically has peaked or is in the midst of peaking regardless of when they first break in the league. Going beyond the age of 32 on a big dollar contract for a player of Hoffman's mould is rarely a pretty scene. There's a few exceptions to this rule and while Hoffman's game does heavily favour solid skating mechanics unlike say a Heatley, he unfortunately doesn't register with the Selanne's of the game.
- Hertlocker


One thing I like is that Hoffman hasn't been put through the 82 game grinder for 5+ years like a lot of other guys, so his effectiveness could stretch to a bit later. Essentially, my hope is that his development curve is skewed to later years. Most players start declining as they reach 27. Hopefully, since Hoffman only has 2 years of the NHL game on his knees and legs, he will have a bit more longevity. I doubt that is considered during contract talks though.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jun 28 @ 4:09 PM ET
Good discussions here today. Your GW2.0 points:

- Just get Hoffman signed. Don't worry too much about comparables. I think term is likely the difficult part to agree upon. Not sure how anyone (I'm point at management) would try to offer him anything less than 5 mill per. I just hope they can stay under 6.

- Staal would be an interesting addition. If he can get back to putting up at least 50-60 points, then it would be a good addition. Last year was a train wreck though. Played 83 games (extra game due to trade) and could even get .5 point per game. Makes you wonder if he is done. At 31, you have to think he has a few years left in him. I am guilty for not seeing him play much last year. If his skating has taken a step back, steer clear. If he looks good on his skates still, he will likely bounce back a bit.

- Everyone seems on board with Connolly. He'd be a cheap addition who is still relatively young. However, he'll always be an inconsistent player judging by the articles I've read. This was even true when his potential was higher when he was drafted. He's also had one change of scenery already, so I'm not sure another one would do too much. Bringing him in kinda has a Latendresse feel to it...

- Interesting to see Edmonton have so much discussion with UFAs already. Likely means someone will be moved out. Doubt the Sens and Oil are good trading partners, but never hurts to inquire.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 4:42 PM ET
You guys should read some of the comments on the Calgary thread, it's awesome. Apparently we got fleeced in the chiasson trade......I've been told that he's a very good hockey player who will bring a lot to the flames lineup while we've essentially gotten a steaming pile of garbage in return.

It's hilarious
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jun 28 @ 5:08 PM ET
You guys should read some of the comments on the Calgary thread, it's awesome. Apparently we got fleeced in the chiasson trade......I've been told that he's a very good hockey player who will bring a lot to the flames lineup while we've essentially gotten a steaming pile of garbage in return.

It's hilarious

- sensarmy_11

Every fanbase is the same. Bruins fans are probably laughing at us for suggesting Connolly could be a good fit on the 3rd line. Hurricane and Rangers fans are probably laughing at us for suggesting to take on Eric Staal. We laugh at the Flame fans who think Chaisson can be a decent player. We will laugh at the team that takes on Wiercioch and says he's full of potential. I am sure there was one lonely Leaf fan that propped up Jared Cowen for a little while. This is how bust players are discussed. It's quite comical either way.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jun 28 @ 5:28 PM ET
Every fanbase is the same. Bruins fans are probably laughing at us for suggesting Connolly could be a good fit on the 3rd line. Hurricane and Rangers fans are probably laughing at us for suggesting to take on Eric Staal. We laugh at the Flame fans who think Chaisson can be a decent player. We will laugh at the team that takes on Wiercioch and says he's full of potential. I am sure there was one lonely Leaf fan that propped up Jared Cowen for a little while. This is how bust players are discussed. It's quite comical either way.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

It's also true that new situations can create new opportunities for players that just didn't fit the team. One of the best examples is Martin St. Louis, who was left unprotected in the Expansion Draft of 2000, and wasn't selected by either Columbus or Minnesota. He was then bought out of his contract and allowed to become a UFA.

That was just a few years before he put up his first 30G/90Pts season as the leading scorer of the Stanley Cup champions in 2003/04.

Erik6Karlsson5
Ottawa Senators
Location: It's Knuckle Puck Time.., NB
Joined: 01.23.2013

Jun 28 @ 6:03 PM ET
I don't like the idea of replacing the 25 year old RW Chiasson with a 24 year old RW Connoly. Both have similar numbers in the AHL & NHL. He could be better on the PK than Chiasson witch the Sens desperately need from there 3 - 4 RW, but I don't think he's the depth winger they need to push for a playoff spot.

I wouldn't mind a Lee Stepniak, Dale Weiss or a Chris Versteeg UFA signing for the right price.



Hoff - Zibby - Stone
Mac - Turris - Ryan
Smith - JPG -( LS, DW, CV)
Peumple/Dzingel - Paul - Lazar/Neil
MaxTLimit
Ottawa Senators
Location: Middle 'o Nowehre, ON
Joined: 07.02.2014

Jun 28 @ 7:56 PM ET
According to NBC sports, stall will only sign somewhere he will get to play top 6 at centre. Seems unlikely that is a fit for the Sens. Now that I think of it, I don't think a lot of teams would slot him there. They say he is super motivated, because his pride has been hurt by his current perception, but we've all heard that from players before.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 28 @ 8:06 PM ET
According to NBC sports, stall will only sign somewhere he will get to play top 6 at centre. Seems unlikely that is a fit for the Sens. Now that I think of it, I don't think a lot of teams would slot him there. They say he is super motivated, because his pride has been hurt by his current perception, but we've all heard that from players before.
- MaxTLimit


2nd line, move zibby to the wing......alleviates the fear of macarthur's injury concerns, start him back slow on the 3rd line

that being said, would only offer him a one year deal if he insisted on playing top six
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