Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Analyzing Flyers' 1st-Round Selection of Rubtsov
Author Message
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:23 PM ET
Hogberg is not on Black Book and not ranked on Central Scouting, but we took a 5th on him. I was confused and searched for anything resembling a scouting report. This is the definition of boom potential in the 5th.

Hogberg is very young for this draft class, being born 11 days before the cutoff -- which helps his cause. As discussed many times, the difference of 6-8 months is huge in the development of 17 and 18-year-olds.

As we can see from his numbers in U20 SuperElit league, Hogberg is an offensive defenceman who isn't afraid to jump in the rush. He finished the season with the 11th most points amongst defenceman in the SuperElit with all the players around him being ranked by NHL CSS. He also saw two regular season games and one playoff game in the SHL.

He has the size and skating abilities to be worth the risk.

When we use pGPS to look at Hogberg, he is the highest rated of this grouping with 18.9% going on to become NHL regulars. Obviously, we don't if a team has their eye on him, but it's entirely possible that he will be available in the 6th or 7th round, and an almost 20% success rate will be very good odds at that point.


- Mononoke



Boom or bust baby!
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Jun 25 @ 12:23 PM ET


can't have hagg and hogberg that's just too much
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:24 PM ET
3 picks left, keep these picks coming. These are ones to get excited about the raw potential.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 25 @ 12:25 PM ET
Not the prospects, team. Trades, type of selections, got 'your guy' etc.
- coffee junkie


How about this: I am fairly stunned the logjam on trades didn't break. Not because it's easy to move money around, but because guys like Nash have submitted lists upon request (reportedly) and there are teams that needed to do more than they did

For instance: Calgary. I mean, seriously. Brian Elliott is not a horrible option. But he also played for one of the most disciplined systems in the league and with a truly talented defense corps

Now, does that mean Elliott is not going to help the Flames? He probably will. But if you've called on Fleury and you called on Bishop but just cheaped out on paying for a true No. 1, then don't blame anyone but yourself when you don't get the kind of goaltending you need

To me, teams continue to overvalue the future over the present. You can't always be a slave to one over the other, but these teams are so skittish about closing deals...it's crazy to me
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:26 PM ET
Boom or bust baby!
- coffee junkie


According to Canucks Army website (where I pulled that from), he actually has one of the highest floors based on comparable players in all of the late rounds. It's almost a high floor/high ceiling pick late. Hmm.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:26 PM ET
Hogberg is not on Black Book and not ranked on Central Scouting, but we took a 5th on him. I was confused and searched for anything resembling a scouting report. This is the definition of boom potential in the 5th.

Hogberg is very young for this draft class, being born 11 days before the cutoff -- which helps his cause. As discussed many times, the difference of 6-8 months is huge in the development of 17 and 18-year-olds.

As we can see from his numbers in U20 SuperElit league, Hogberg is an offensive defenceman who isn't afraid to jump in the rush. He finished the season with the 11th most points amongst defenceman in the SuperElit with all the players around him being ranked by NHL CSS. He also saw two regular season games and one playoff game in the SHL.

He has the size and skating abilities to be worth the risk.

When we use pGPS to look at Hogberg, he is the highest rated of this grouping with 18.9% going on to become NHL regulars. Obviously, we don't if a team has their eye on him, but it's entirely possible that he will be available in the 6th or 7th round, and an almost 20% success rate will be very good odds at that point.


- Mononoke

there's your lottery pick
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:26 PM ET
there's your lottery pick

- 2Real


3 more, (frank)er
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 25 @ 12:27 PM ET
can't have hagg and hogberg that's just too much
- -davies-

coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:27 PM ET
How about this: I am fairly stunned the logjam on trades didn't break. Not because it's easy to move money around, but because guys like Nash have submitted lists upon request (reportedly) and there are teams that needed to do more than they did

For instance: Calgary. I mean, seriously. Brian Elliott is not a horrible option. But he also played for one of the most disciplined systems in the league and with a truly talented defense corps

Now, does that mean Elliott is not going to help the Flames? He probably will. But if you've called on Fleury and you called on Bishop but just cheaped out on paying for a true No. 1, then don't blame anyone but yourself when you don't get the kind of goaltending you need

To me, teams continue to overvalue the future over the present. You can't always be a slave to one over the other, but these teams are so skittish about closing deals...it's crazy to me

- AllInForFlyers

Do you wish the Flyers made more moves?
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:28 PM ET
Brayden Burke, Dmitry Sokolov, Jake Ryczek, Matthew Phillips, Kyle Maksimovich, Domenic Commisso!

Give me some bold picks, Hexy.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:29 PM ET
So i guess Philly will be getting Arizona's 3rd rounder next year...will take that!
FlyerAdam30
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Sewell, NJ
Joined: 04.15.2012

Jun 25 @ 12:31 PM ET
What team was the trade with? Maybe they're banking on that team sucking next year? Even then, yeah gotta get a 6th or something. Strange move.
- hereticpride

I think it's just a matter of having so many picks this year and figuring they should have an extra asset to use next year is a good idea. As of today they only had one pick besides there own for next year. Now they will have two 3rds and two 4ths
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 25 @ 12:31 PM ET
I think it's just a matter of having so many picks this year and figuring they should have an extra asset to use next year is a good idea. As of today they only had one pick besides there own for next year. Now they will have two 3rds and two 4ths
- FlyerAdam30

Good point.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:32 PM ET
I understand why Dallas did it, but why would LA trade for Jack Campbell...he WILL be exposed during the expansion draft unless for some reason LA decides not to protect Quick.

nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Jun 25 @ 12:32 PM ET
So i guess Philly will be getting Arizona's 3rd rounder next year...will take that!
- Glak18



thought one of the 4ths we had this year was the Arizona pick, no?
FlyerAdam30
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Sewell, NJ
Joined: 04.15.2012

Jun 25 @ 12:32 PM ET
So i guess Philly will be getting Arizona's 3rd rounder next year...will take that!
- Glak18

I don't think so. They gave them their 4th this year to fulfill that deal. Flyers then traded a 4th for next year 4th. They do have bostons 3rd nextyr though
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 25 @ 12:32 PM ET
So is it safe to say the Pens are stuck with Fluery yet?
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:32 PM ET
I understand why Dallas did it, but why would LA trade for Jack Campbell...he WILL be exposed during the expansion draft unless for some reason LA decides not to protect Quick.


- Glak18


Because he has been utterly horrendous and Vegas is not taking him
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:33 PM ET
Because he has been utterly horrendous and Vegas is not taking him
- Mononoke


Ummm
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jun 25 @ 12:33 PM ET
Glossing over the picks... I think Wade Allison is going to be the best for the price pick.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:34 PM ET
Ummm
- Glak18


Methinks you need to look at his actual stats and not his reputation.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:36 PM ET
Methinks you need to look at his actual stats and not his 6 year old reputation and draft pick status.
- Mononoke


Methinks people need to stop judging purely on stats, he has struggles and had some injuries like every goalie, but he will be a decent starter for someone.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jun 25 @ 12:36 PM ET
Glossing over the picks... I think Wade Allison is going to be the best for the price pick.
- JoeRussomanno

Why Joe?
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:37 PM ET
Methinks people need to stop judging purely on stats, he has struggles and had some injuries like every goalie, but he will be a decent starter for someone.
- Glak18


He's an ECHL goalie. They traded Nick Ebert for him.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 25 @ 12:37 PM ET
Do you wish the Flyers made more moves?
- coffee junkie


I'm just...I'm surprised sometimes at how much these picks are valued.

They have value, of course -- I'm not saying it's good to just burn picks on whatever.

But the Flyers had 11 picks even before they traded down. That is a metric (frank)-ton of picks. You're telling me there's no way to move a pick for a player ANYWHERE?

That's what baffles me about this sport now. Teams hold onto picks like they are the last bit of drinking water on Earth, when the math shows that after the first few picks, then a cut of the first round, you are basically throwing darts at a board

It's good to have more darts than the guy next to you; basic math tells you that. But at the same time, better odds of basically nothing is still basically nothing, you know?
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20  Next