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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Making Sense Of It All
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John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 11:10 AM ET
Seabrook is also a hit machine, minutes machine, goal scoring machine, leader machine...also had to play with Svedburg and Gustafson machine...
- PatShart



^^^^^
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 11:12 AM ET
For next year (2017-18), GF shows the Hawks with $57MM in cap hit for the 11 currently-signed players, so plenty of "tagging room" for Panarin.
- StLBravesFan


Agreed, but lets factor in a few things.....

1. I think in a conservative matter baring a reduction in kane's play or injury lets put Panarin at a top 10 scorer triggering his schedule A bonus of 2.375 (I think that's the number) So add that in. Then you have to slide in his AAV. lets say conservatively it's 6 million.

2. You are at 66 million with a roster size of 12, without Shaw or Darling, and still having Kruger, AA, and CC on the roster.

So it's not any easier next year, and we still dont' know if NS has bonuses in his deal confirmed yet. I;m sure he does, but luckily Motte doesn't.

This is what I am getting at....you could have 7 million in cap space with only 12 guys and you still may not be able to protect TVR if you went option 2 in the expansion draft and kept 8 skaters and 1 goalie, because 2/4/7/15/16/19/81/88 all have NMCs. And would any of those guys waive to go to Vegas? I doubt it.

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 24 @ 11:13 AM ET
Does every team in the league 1) have the cap space and 2) their own 2-1st round picks, 1-2nd rnd pick, 1-3rd round pick to sign him?

And that wouldn't be a horrible coup for the Hawks if needed.

- PatShart


It's only 1 first, 1 second, 1 third up to $7.5MM - is he likely to get an offer sheet above that?

John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 11:13 AM ET
Great post. The mention of Bennett in a deal will be followed by a click. I realize Hawks don't have the need to trade Crawford the way Pitt should be way more reasonable in asking price for MAF & even Bishop for that matter, but Yzerman is now a certified documented hard a$$. So I could see him waiting to trade Bishop next year.
But I am curious, how valuable is that 6.0 mill cap space to you guys? Would someone like Jooris, our #35 & our 2017 2nd be enough for Crawford? Jooris could be your cheaper version of Shaw & you move Shaw. Or take out Jooris & we give you Colborne, he's looking for 2.5mill, can play centre but he really settled in & scored his points on wing. Big kid, nice hands but I think his ceiling is 3rd line even though you would love to see more out of him. If you ask for the #6 or any of our young (future)core, it just isn't worth it & we find a bridge in net that will suck for next year but then the Tampa's & Pitts will lose any leverage & prices will be more realistic. Bishop will be a UFA rental & Rutherford will be throwing in sweeteners to take MAF.
Screw them both if Crawford's price is more reasonable.

- Kevin R


Let me ask you back: what do you think would be value for value return for Crawford, rights to Shaw and Kruger?

Bearing in mind Hawks would probably want two forwards and pick(s) back.

For example, what if Backlund and Ferland were swapped out for Colborne and Jooris?
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:13 AM ET
Yeah Seabrook does a lot of things well. But he had a bad season regardless of who he played with. He looked tired. Maybe some rest will do him good.
- Hawks_49



When you play with two undrafted derelicts...it matters who you play with. ESPECIALLY when it comes to giveaways/being out of position.

And for a bad season, he put up career numbers in goals and points. By far led the blueline in hits and blocked 150 shots while being a +6. Not sure how "bad" of a season that was. Putting him with a capable actual NHL defenceman will help him much more than any "rest", IMO
Dabearshawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 03.02.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:14 AM ET
Put on your big boy pants.

The Hawks are already playing with their hands tied, now they have to worry if player A is buddies with player B. If Panarin needs a Russian to hold his hand, go get a cheaper one. If Anisimov is one that needs to move, move him. Not saying Anisimov (or anyone) IS the one who should get moved, but moving/keeping players should be hockey / cap related and shouldn't reflect how sensitive a player may be.

- kwolf68


I think it's interesting that Russian players have been being looked at often by the Hawks front office since Panarin joined the team.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:15 AM ET
Let me ask you back: what do you think would be value for value return for Crawford, rights to Shaw and Kruger?

Bearing in mind Hawks would probably want two forwards and pick(s) back.

(there is a reason I ask this)

- John Jaeckel



That is a VERY good question. I think it's almost too hard to answer depending on what other feelers are out there - are they trying to clear space to sign someone, or trade for a player that they feel can help them now? (LW....more scoring depth on 3rd/fourth line)
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 11:15 AM ET
When have they added another boat anchor to the HRR equation? The best that can be hoped for out of Vegas is that they are a break even team in terms of HRR. They will not drive it higher. Odds are they will be in the bottom half of teams in HRR thus dragging the cap down. The cap was set to go down this year and players bailed that out by voting in the escalator. Next year not even the escalator will likely get the league to even. If I was a betting man (and I usually am) I would bet on the cap falling next year.
- Quicky72


You and I both and what this expansion team will finally do is pull the curtain back as the cap goes DOWN. Granted 90% of that is driven by sagging Canadian dollar that is out of NHL control, but when you sign a massive Canadian TV deal that is a major factor in your cap number, you live and die with it.

So again....why would Shaw take a bridge deal THIS year to help the hawks when realistically NOT only will the Hawks have LESS money to spend, but so will the entire league? He would be stupid to do so and so would any other RFA. They need to cash in while they can.......
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jun 24 @ 11:15 AM ET
Thanks man... and good call on that.
- golfbard

And in the pre-draft frenzy, I will just post this:

https://www.bing.com/vide...013+cup+wgn+radio&PC=U316

Hope it works....
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 24 @ 11:16 AM ET
Agreed, but lets factor in a few things.....

1. I think in a conservative matter baring a reduction in kane's play or injury lets put Panarin at a top 10 scorer triggering his schedule A bonus of 2.375 (I think that's the number) So add that in. Then you have to slide in his AAV. lets say conservatively it's 6 million.

2. You are at 66 million with a roster size of 12, without Shaw or Darling, and still having Kruger, AA, and CC on the roster.

So it's not any easier next year, and we still dont' know if NS has bonuses in his deal confirmed yet. I;m sure he does, but luckily Motte doesn't.

This is what I am getting at....you could have 7 million in cap space with only 12 guys and you still may not be able to protect TVR if you went option 2 in the expansion draft and kept 8 skaters and 1 goalie, because 2/4/7/15/16/19/81/88 all have NMCs. And would any of those guys waive to go to Vegas? I doubt it.

- SteveRain


I thought you were only talking about the ability to sign him this summer within the tagging rules.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:17 AM ET
Great post. The mention of Bennett in a deal will be followed by a click. I realize Hawks don't have the need to trade Crawford the way Pitt should be way more reasonable in asking price for MAF & even Bishop for that matter, but Yzerman is now a certified documented hard a$$. So I could see him waiting to trade Bishop next year.
But I am curious, how valuable is that 6.0 mill cap space to you guys? Would someone like Jooris, our #35 & our 2017 2nd be enough for Crawford? Jooris could be your cheaper version of Shaw & you move Shaw. Or take out Jooris & we give you Colborne, he's looking for 2.5mill, can play centre but he really settled in & scored his points on wing. Big kid, nice hands but I think his ceiling is 3rd line even though you would love to see more out of him. If you ask for the #6 or any of our young (future)core, it just isn't worth it & we find a bridge in net that will suck for next year but then the Tampa's & Pitts will lose any leverage & prices will be more realistic. Bishop will be a UFA rental & Rutherford will be throwing in sweeteners to take MAF.
Screw them both if Crawford's price is more reasonable.

- Kevin R


I would say that proposition wouldn't quite get the Flames Crawford. But if I was desperate to clear that cap space I would certainly take a look at it as a starting point. Jooris is a guy who plays with heart and soul and some nastiness. He's exactly the kind of bottom 6 player every team wants. But Crawford is a 2-time SC Champion and the two picks would be hit-or-miss prospects at best.

I also LOVE Colborne. Do you know if the Flames are getting any closer to a deal with him? I heard the two sides were not seeing eye to eye the last time I looked into it.


EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Jun 24 @ 11:17 AM ET
I'm not buying the Vegas is going to have a hard time selling tickets argument, at least for the next few years. It flys in the face of the facts. It has a 17,368 capacity and has deposits on about 15,000 season tickets.
- walleyeb1


It's not just gate receipts - HRR is a combination of revenue sources which includes TV deals which are probably static and therefore dividing that revenue source by 31 instead of 30 means the overall HRR/31 could be lower.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jun 24 @ 11:18 AM ET
I think it's interesting that Russian players have been being looked at often by the Hawks front office since Panarin joined the team.
- Dabearshawks


Coincidence. Bowman liked Anisimov well before Panarin came onto the scene. I typically like to avoid them unless it's a great deal. While Russian players are not as bad as they used to be in terms of being greedy/lazy/floating mercenaries, they still are very fickle and I just don't think many of them like it here. You rarely hear of a Finnish or Swede longing for the homeland and pulling an Ilya.

darklighter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.11.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:19 AM ET
It's not just gate receipts - HRR is a combination of revenue sources which includes TV deals which are probably static and therefore dividing that revenue source by 31 instead of 30 means the overall HRR/31 could be lower.
- EbonyRaptor


Do you (or does anyone) know whether the half-billion dollar expansion fee is HRR?

My guess is that it's not.
darklighter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.11.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:20 AM ET
Coincidence. Bowman liked Anisimov well before Panarin came onto the scene. I typically like to avoid them unless it's a great deal. While Russian players are not as bad as they used to be in terms of being greedy/lazy/floating mercenaries, they still are very fickle and I just don't think many of them like it here. You rarely hear of a Finnish or Swede longing for the homeland and pulling an Ilya.
- kwolf68


I hear the golf courses in Finland are wonderful this time of year...

Dabearshawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 03.02.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:20 AM ET
Coincidence. Bowman liked Anisimov well before Panarin came onto the scene. I typically like to avoid them unless it's a great deal. While Russian players are not as bad as they used to be in terms of being greedy/lazy/floating mercenaries, they still are very fickle and I just don't think many of them like it here. You rarely hear of a Finnish or Swede longing for the homeland and pulling an Ilya.
- kwolf68


I know he liked Anisimov before. it just seems like prior to Panarin joining the team Bowman was trying to bring every single Swedish player to Chicago. It went from pancakes and lingonberries to pickle juice and Vodka.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Jun 24 @ 11:20 AM ET
It's only 1 first, 1 second, 1 third up to $7.5MM - is he likely to get an offer sheet above that?
- StLBravesFan

If he puts up anothe year of being top 10 in scoring and takes a step forward in development... It's possible.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:20 AM ET
When you play with two undrafted derelicts...it matters who you play with. ESPECIALLY when it comes to giveaways/being out of position.

And for a bad season, he put up career numbers in goals and points. By far led the blueline in hits and blocked 150 shots while being a +6. Not sure how "bad" of a season that was. Putting him with a capable actual NHL defenceman will help him much more than any "rest", IMO

- PatShart


Offensive numbers are really nice, but he wasn't good defensively this year. I'm not really here to have a big argument about it, so I'll leave it at that.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Jun 24 @ 11:20 AM ET
Do you (or does anyone) know whether the half-billion dollar expansion fee is HRR?

My guess is that it's not.

- darklighter

Your guess is correct.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Jun 24 @ 11:21 AM ET
Put on your big boy pants.

The Hawks are already playing with their hands tied, now they have to worry if player A is buddies with player B. If Panarin needs a Russian to hold his hand, go get a cheaper one. If Anisimov is one that needs to move, move him. Not saying Anisimov (or anyone) IS the one who should get moved, but moving/keeping players should be hockey / cap related and shouldn't reflect how sensitive a player may be.

- kwolf68


Put on your logic cap. Play hardball with lesser players - not with one who should be a member of the core for years to come ... unless he gets the impression the club doesn't give a rip about him.
mrn22
New York Rangers
Location: CT
Joined: 05.22.2014

Jun 24 @ 11:21 AM ET
what would it take to get AA? not really asking from a Rangers perspective more just in general
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jun 24 @ 11:23 AM ET
what would it take to get AA? not really asking from a Rangers perspective more just in general
- mrn22


Top 4 D man with similar salary , Id guess
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 24 @ 11:24 AM ET
Do you (or does anyone) know whether the half-billion dollar expansion fee is HRR?

My guess is that it's not.

- darklighter


It isn't - windfall for the owners (and some to the league office) - but say 15MM+ for each team.
darklighter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.11.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:24 AM ET
Top 4 D man with similar salary , Id guess
- mrpaulish


And if not this, it would have to be picks or prospects, because the only reason to move Anisimov is to open cap space to do something like... bring on a top 4 defenseman. Or, I suppose, a 2C they like more.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jun 24 @ 11:25 AM ET
Let me ask you back: what do you think would be value for value return for Crawford, rights to Shaw and Kruger?

Bearing in mind Hawks would probably want two forwards and pick(s) back.

For example, what if Backlund and Ferland were swapped out for Colborne and Jooris?

- John Jaeckel


Backlund would be the gem of the deal for Chicago if Kruger is going the other way. Backlund is a very good defensive center who contributes an awful lot offensively for a guy with his cap hit. Him and Anisimov would be a 2A/2B center combo.

Ferland is a nice player, too. Maybe a guy like Poirier as a prospect coming back to Chicago. Calgary has a lot of nice young players coming through their system that could help restock Chicago's.
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