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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Making Sense Of It All
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PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:53 PM ET
What about....trading for Rick Nash with the NYR retaining 1/3 of his salary

He's a LW (Hawks have had interest in the past in him)

He's played with Toews/on his LW in the Olympics

So they'd be getting him for 2yrs - 5.2mil
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 24 @ 3:55 PM ET
What about....trading for Rick Nash with the NYR retaining 1/3 of his salary

He's a LW (Hawks have had interest in the past in him)

He's played with Toews/on his LW in the Olympics

So they'd be getting him for 2yrs - 5.2mil

- PatShart


As long as you're fine with losing Panarin too. There likely wouldn't be room to have both on the roster.
Dabearshawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 03.02.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:55 PM ET
Mark Lazerus ‏@MarkLazerus 9m9 minutes ago
One former player/exec: "Nick Schmaltz is fine. But he's no Teravainen. Not even close."

Edit: Clearly he's quoting Ron Francis.

- DarthKane


Well of course he isn't Teuvo, his name is Nick. saying he's no Teuvo when he has yet to play a game in the NHL doesn't make much sense.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:56 PM ET
I think 3.5 to 3.75 is fair. Based on comparables.
- SteveRain


The AAV is a problem for the Hawks because of the cap situation and Panarin.

Everyone needs to understand this: giving Shaw $3.5 million per means paying an extra $1.5 million per ton NOT improve the team. The Hawks can't afford that. At all.

But, to me, term is the bigger issue. This is a guy with an allegedly serious back issue. He's also a walking suspension.

Don't get me wrong, I like Shaw and what he brings when he plays within the guardrails. But for the Hawks, Shaw at $3.5 for 3-4 years is a problem.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jun 24 @ 3:56 PM ET
Jeez - who's more popular than Shaw?
- StLBravesFan

Mashinter of course
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:56 PM ET
What about....trading for Rick Nash with the NYR retaining 1/3 of his salary

He's a LW (Hawks have had interest in the past in him)

He's played with Toews/on his LW in the Olympics

So they'd be getting him for 2yrs - 5.2mil

- PatShart


If NYR retained salary, they could do a lot worse. He is a very skilled forward.
Dannyboy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:58 PM ET
I think 3.5 to 3.75 is fair. Based on comparables.
- SteveRain


I love Shaw, but that is too much for him. I have no problem with him wanting to get paid, unfortunately it looks like it won't be with the Hawks.

Shaw and Kruger should both be at the $2.5M mark.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:58 PM ET
Mark Lazerus ‏@MarkLazerus 9m9 minutes ago
One former player/exec: "Nick Schmaltz is fine. But he's no Teravainen. Not even close."

Edit: Clearly he's quoting Ron Francis.

- DarthKane


I haven't seen nearly enough of Schmaltz to offer an opinion. But the Hawks chose to cut bait on Teravainen and nobody knows him (and Schmaltz) better than they do.
maria_wyeth
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 09.24.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:58 PM ET
I missed it last night, but:

Good luck with your back, John - you're too young for chronic back issues.

And - congratulations, Eli - a long haul, hope you and you're much-better half move forward into your next life phase with success and happiness.

- StLBravesFan


Congrats Eli!!!
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:59 PM ET
As long as you're fine with losing Panarin too. There likely wouldn't be room to have both on the roster.
- DarthKane


Why? Cuz there's no one else to deal?
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 24 @ 4:00 PM ET
As long as you're fine with losing Panarin too. There likely wouldn't be room to have both on the roster.
- DarthKane



Panarin makes 812K....they couldn't take on 5.2mil if they traded say Kruger for him and let Shaw go?
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 24 @ 4:00 PM ET
Panarin makes 812K....they couldn't take on 5.2mil if they traded say Kruger for him and let Shaw go?
- PatShart


He will be due a $2.5MM bonus or so based on performance which will hit next year's cap

PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 24 @ 4:03 PM ET
He will be due a $2.5MM bonus or so based on performance which will hit next year's cap
- Return of the Roar



I was unaware he hit his bonuses already for 2016-17 season or that the salary cap for next year was already announced.
DK002
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Evanston, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jun 24 @ 4:03 PM ET
Lazerus' latest piece on the Hawks cap crunch. Lays it out pretty nicely. Not holding any punches it seems...also does mention Shaw wants 4.5 mil.

http://chicago.suntimes.c...-one-of-their-own-making/

"But for all his success, Bowman is hardy infallible. The Bryan Bickell contract was a disaster that cost the Hawks money and talent, including Teuvo Teravainen. The eight-year Brent Seabrook contract that kicks in next month could become an albatross in a few years as the veteran hits his mid-30s. The instant contract extension for Artem Anisimov last summer was uncharacteristically risky. David Rundblad continues to be an expensive press-box ornament. And now the Marcus Kruger contract is biting Bowman before it even starts."
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 4:05 PM ET
Lazerus' latest piece on the Hawks cap crunch. Lays it out pretty nicely. Not holding any punches it seems...also does mention Shaw wants 4.5 mil.

http://chicago.suntimes.c...-one-of-their-own-making/

"But for all his success, Bowman is hardy infallible. The Bryan Bickell contract was a disaster that cost the Hawks money and talent, including Teuvo Teravainen. The eight-year Brent Seabrook contract that kicks in next month could become an albatross in a few years as the veteran hits his mid-30s. The instant contract extension for Artem Anisimov last summer was uncharacteristically risky. David Rundblad continues to be an expensive press-box ornament. And now the Marcus Kruger contract is biting Bowman before it even starts."

- DK002


In other words: "don't blame us when we ship out a couple of your favorites, blame Stan."
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 24 @ 4:06 PM ET
I was unaware he hit his bonuses already for 2016-17 season or that the salary cap for next year was already announced.
- PatShart


Safe to say cap going nowhere significant in expansion year except flat at best or even down since the new team dilutes the HRR.

Safe to say if he stays healthy and does what he did last year he will make his bonuses.

As such you need to treat him like a dead money $2.5MM cap hit if he is not signed, or if signed, it is a $2.5MM premium on top of whatever deal he signs.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 4:06 PM ET
In other words: "don't blame us when we ship out a couple of your favorites, blame Stan."
- John Jaeckel


Gotta tell ya, this fits exactly what I heard yesterday and blogged this AM. Team is in fire sale mode because of too many big contracts given out to too many guys.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 24 @ 4:07 PM ET
Lazerus' latest piece on the Hawks cap crunch. Lays it out pretty nicely. Not holding any punches it seems...also does mention Shaw wants 4.5 mil.

http://chicago.suntimes.c...-one-of-their-own-making/

"But for all his success, Bowman is hardy infallible. The Bryan Bickell contract was a disaster that cost the Hawks money and talent, including Teuvo Teravainen. The eight-year Brent Seabrook contract that kicks in next month could become an albatross in a few years as the veteran hits his mid-30s. The instant contract extension for Artem Anisimov last summer was uncharacteristically risky. David Rundblad continues to be an expensive press-box ornament. And now the Marcus Kruger contract is biting Bowman before it even starts."

- DK002


Tell it like it is Lazerus. Though, I think Anisimov is one of the best value 2Cs in the league at $4.25AAV
Tanuki
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.27.2010

Jun 24 @ 4:07 PM ET
Gotta tell ya, this fits exactly what I heard yesterday and blogged this AM. Team is in fire sale mode because of too many big contracts given out to too many guys.
- John Jaeckel


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=280yPTyei0U
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 24 @ 4:08 PM ET
Prediction:

Shaw will be packaged along with another more popular player. They are making Shaw persona non grata in order to make the other part of the medicine go down a little easier.

- John Jaeckel

Hard to say Kruger + Shaw. IMO.... Most likely Shaw + CC. Don't know if the Hawks asked for the team's he'd be willing to accept, unless that is strictly behind closed doors.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 24 @ 4:08 PM ET
Gotta tell ya, this fits exactly what I heard yesterday and blogged this AM. Team is in fire sale mode because of too many big contracts given out to too many guys.
- John Jaeckel


And the universe of moveable guys is constrained further by move/trade restrictions. Adding Shaw might sweeten a deal for some team to take an NMC guy, but it does nothing to push an NMC guy to waive.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 24 @ 4:10 PM ET
Safe to say cap going nowhere significant in expansion year except flat at best or even down since the new team dilutes the HRR.

Safe to say if he stays healthy and does what he did last year he will make his bonuses.

As such you need to treat him like a dead money $2.5MM cap hit if he is not signed, or if signed, it is a $2.5MM premium on top of whatever deal he signs.

- Return of the Roar



And I disagree the cap will go down

And definitely not a slam dunk he produces the same.

And if he wants 7+million they should be able to get some good assets for him. He's an RFA next year, not UFA
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 4:10 PM ET
And the universe of moveable guys is constrained further by move/trade restrictions. Adding Shaw might sweeten a deal for some team to take an NMC guy, but it does nothing to push an NMC guy to waive.
- Return of the Roar


Again, SOME guys with NMCs also have modified NTCs as part of their deals.

There are also LOTS of unpublicized ways teams can get certain guys to waive.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 4:12 PM ET
Lazerus' latest piece on the Hawks cap crunch. Lays it out pretty nicely. Not holding any punches it seems...also does mention Shaw wants 4.5 mil.

http://chicago.suntimes.c...-one-of-their-own-making/

"But for all his success, Bowman is hardy infallible. The Bryan Bickell contract was a disaster that cost the Hawks money and talent, including Teuvo Teravainen. The eight-year Brent Seabrook contract that kicks in next month could become an albatross in a few years as the veteran hits his mid-30s. The instant contract extension for Artem Anisimov last summer was uncharacteristically risky. David Rundblad continues to be an expensive press-box ornament. And now the Marcus Kruger contract is biting Bowman before it even starts."

- DK002


His modified NTC does not kick in until the last two years of his deal—much harder to move him right now.
dstainer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jun 24 @ 4:12 PM ET
And I disagree the cap will go down

And definitely not a slam dunk he produces the same.

And if he wants 7+million they should be able to get some good assets for him. He's an RFA next year, not UFA

- PatShart


As of right now (with all of the Brexit stuff, sagging oil prices, loonie weakness against the dollar) best course of action is to assume the cap will stay or even drop the next few seasons.
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