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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Making Sense Of It All
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Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:21 PM ET
Interesting read from Scott Powers on how Bowman views/treats draft picks and assets. Helps explain some of the moves of the past two years.

https://theathletic.com/2...ks-2016-nhl-draft-primer/
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:21 PM ET

- DarthKane


you excited about the new star wars bathom spy movie?

I need a distraction.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:23 PM ET
Shaw can take a flying leap if he wants that much, and THAT is why we need to lock up Panarin a.s.a.p. folks!!!! The longer we wait, the more he's going to want.
- Murph76


Oh I agree but who's to say Panarin is in any rush to sign? He has made note of the Hawks cap issues last month. Hawks will want a decent salary with long term. its' going to be north of 6 million. If it's less, it's a steal, but I dont' see how it would be.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 24 @ 3:23 PM ET
you excited about the new star wars bathom spy movie?

I need a distraction.

- SteveRain


I don't know about all these Star Wars movies, man. Talk about potentially burning out a franchise. One movie coming out every year for the next eight years? Oversaturation.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:24 PM ET
Let him sign an offer sheet, 1st round pick and 3rd round pick. Otherwise tender a qualifying offer at 2.5 mil.
- the_dough_boy


Agree
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jun 24 @ 3:25 PM ET
Shaw at $4.5 million?

Thanks for all you've done for Chicago, Andrew.

On a side note, Milan Lucic at $6.0 mil >>> Andrew Shaw at $4.5.

- TommyHawk


Everyone needs to stop worrying about 4.5, he can ask for it, he can't get it unless he signs an offer sheet.

The picks they would get for that much money is more than they'd get today in a trade.

Oh, and btw, no ones paying him 4.5.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:26 PM ET
I don't know about all these Star Wars movies, man. Talk about potentially burning out a franchise. One movie coming out every year for the next eight years? Oversaturation.
- Hank3Henshaw


thought this past one, in December, was a helluva lot better then the late 90s/early 00s trilogy.

I didn't hear about that many, just figured this side one, the sequel to December, and probably a 3rd down the line.

All I know is they better get on them fast becaue Mark Hammil looked like death was standing next to him on that island in Ireland........
the_dough_boy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jun 24 @ 3:27 PM ET
what did "freddy" to produce at?
- SteveRain


Playing defense. I did this a couple months ago, and it fits pretty well.

Stats taken from war on ice(min 500 minutes played, centers, regular season):

The top ten players based on Dzone%, in worst (92.1%) to best (70%) order, in all situations are:

Gaustad, Kruger, Boyd Gordon, Glendening, Fehr, Dejardins, Carter, Stoll, Moore, auston watson

So this is grouping of players to contextualize how Kruger is used and how he performs in to players closest to him on defensive deployment.

All Strengths combined:
- 2nd highest TOI at 13.7 min (glendening)
- 3rd best Corsi For % at 41% (Desjardins, Watson)
- 2nd worst zone stars at -53.1% worse than teammates (gaustad)
- 2nd best scoring chance % at -9.2% in comparison to team (Dejardins)
- 4th best High danger chance % at -11.1% (watson, Dejardins, Moore)

5v5:
- 4th TOI/gm at 10.9 min (Dejardins, Glendening, Moore)
- 3rd best crosi for % at 48.4% (Dejardins, Fehr)
- 3rd worst zone starts at -81.2% (Gaustad, Watson)
- 1st (and only positive!) scoring for % at a 1%
- 5th best high danger chance % at 48.4% (Fehr, Watson, Glendening, Gordon)


Penalty Kill:
- 3rd highest PKTOI/gm (Glendening, Gordon)
- 5th highest Corsi For % at 8.3% (Carter, Dejardins, Moore, Gaustad)
- 5th worst zone starts at -97.3% (Fehr, Dejardins, Glendening, Gordon)
- 3rd best goals against/60 at 6.7 (Glendening, Gordon)
- 2nd highest TOI% for team at 54.6% (Glendening)


What does this all mean in the grand scheme of things? That's really up to you all.

I decided to base the player set on %Dzone starts, so that could skew the results a bit with not looking more at the PK specific details as well as limiting the results to centers (as defined by War on ice). I also cherry picked the stats I thought applicable in respect to each on ice strenth (though I kept the all and 5v5 stats the same, and changed pk for obvious reasons)

All in all it seems to me like Kruger is probably the best at all strenghths and Glendening, Gordon, and kruger are the top 3 on PK (in that order)

Contracts:

Kruger 3.083 M
Gaustad UFA (3.25 M last year)
Fehr 2 M
Dejardins 800k
Gordon UFA (3 M last year)
Carter UFA (625K last year)
Stoll UFA (800k last year)
Moore UFA (1.5 M last year)
Watson RFA (575k last year)

-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:29 PM ET
I'd guess the 33rd would be doable
- walleyeb1



Too much unless he agrees to a deal first.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 24 @ 3:30 PM ET
Lots of these "rumors" I feel have been nothing but pure posturing with guys like Ladd and Shaw to temper down their salary demands.

If Shaw really wants $4.5MM he should have known long ago that was never going to happen.

I say QO him at $2.5MM with an hour to respond or he is on the block.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 24 @ 3:30 PM ET
thought this past one, in December, was a helluva lot better then the late 90s/early 00s trilogy.

I didn't hear about that many, just figured this side one, the sequel to December, and probably a 3rd down the line.

All I know is they better get on them fast becaue Mark Hammil looked like death was standing next to him on that island in Ireland........

- SteveRain


Oh man...def better than the late 90's/early 00's one. But, it was pretty much A New Hope for a new generation.

Haha. Hammil was looking a little rough. My buddies and I were joking that when Rae got up to the area he was at, he was going to be sitting there with like a 30 pack of beer--just hanging out by himself. Haha.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:31 PM ET
The Hawks aren't dumb, they know 95% of the fanbase knows Shaw at $4.5 million is untenable.

So a "team source" tells Mark Lazerus that's what Shaw wants.

Hmmmm . . .

Got a feeling Mr. Shaw is in another sweater by midnight.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jun 24 @ 3:32 PM ET
whats more fun than watching the building the of stanley cup winner...well the deconstruction of one...

as jj pointed out: 3 players in their early 20's leddy, saad, tt gone for anisimov and $$ savings; several high picks + danault for nothing in return; sharp gone for about liitle less of 5 ml in savings (scuderi contract for 1.2 mil)..

and now the the roster player they got for all that anisimov is on the market...

enjoy...

it looks like to me 5-6 HOFs plus hammy and a bunch of flotsam and jepsam
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:33 PM ET
Everyone needs to stop worrying about 4.5, he can ask for it, he can't get it unless he signs an offer sheet.

The picks they would get for that much money is more than they'd get today in a trade.

Oh, and btw, no ones paying him 4.5.

- vabeachbear


Agree! Not $4.5 and then you would have to give up a 1st and a 3rd.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jun 24 @ 3:33 PM ET
Oh I agree but who's to say Panarin is in any rush to sign? He has made note of the Hawks cap issues last month. Hawks will want a decent salary with long term. its' going to be north of 6 million. If it's less, it's a steal, but I dont' see how it would be.
- SteveRain


Well...hopefully Bowman & Co. are freeing up cap space now to get something done in the near future. JJ has already said re-signing him is a very high priority for the FO. I hope they do press him to sign something long term, before his head gets any bigger (which it will, especially in this city with the Hawks having such a huge following).
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:33 PM ET
Playing defense. I did this a couple months ago, and it fits pretty well.

Stats taken from war on ice(min 500 minutes played, centers, regular season):

The top ten players based on Dzone%, in worst (92.1%) to best (70%) order, in all situations are:

Gaustad, Kruger, Boyd Gordon, Glendening, Fehr, Dejardins, Carter, Stoll, Moore, auston watson

So this is grouping of players to contextualize how Kruger is used and how he performs in to players closest to him on defensive deployment.

All Strengths combined:
- 2nd highest TOI at 13.7 min (glendening)
- 3rd best Corsi For % at 41% (Desjardins, Watson)
- 2nd worst zone stars at -53.1% worse than teammates (gaustad)
- 2nd best scoring chance % at -9.2% in comparison to team (Dejardins)
- 4th best High danger chance % at -11.1% (watson, Dejardins, Moore)

5v5:
- 4th TOI/gm at 10.9 min (Dejardins, Glendening, Moore)
- 3rd best crosi for % at 48.4% (Dejardins, Fehr)
- 3rd worst zone starts at -81.2% (Gaustad, Watson)
- 1st (and only positive!) scoring for % at a 1%
- 5th best high danger chance % at 48.4% (Fehr, Watson, Glendening, Gordon)


Penalty Kill:
- 3rd highest PKTOI/gm (Glendening, Gordon)
- 5th highest Corsi For % at 8.3% (Carter, Dejardins, Moore, Gaustad)
- 5th worst zone starts at -97.3% (Fehr, Dejardins, Glendening, Gordon)
- 3rd best goals against/60 at 6.7 (Glendening, Gordon)
- 2nd highest TOI% for team at 54.6% (Glendening)


What does this all mean in the grand scheme of things? That's really up to you all.

I decided to base the player set on %Dzone starts, so that could skew the results a bit with not looking more at the PK specific details as well as limiting the results to centers (as defined by War on ice). I also cherry picked the stats I thought applicable in respect to each on ice strenth (though I kept the all and 5v5 stats the same, and changed pk for obvious reasons)

All in all it seems to me like Kruger is probably the best at all strenghths and Glendening, Gordon, and kruger are the top 3 on PK (in that order)

Contracts:

Kruger 3.083 M
Gaustad UFA (3.25 M last year)
Fehr 2 M
Dejardins 800k
Gordon UFA (3 M last year)
Carter UFA (625K last year)
Stoll UFA (800k last year)
Moore UFA (1.5 M last year)
Watson RFA (575k last year)

- the_dough_boy


again I respect your post and appreciate the research......but......that's an awful lot to pay for a specialty skill set when your core is cashing in as well. Can't afford that money allotted to that role on a cap strapped team if that's all he does.

I'm cool with Hawks walking away from 4.5 if Shaw wont' come down.....but that money still wsant' even tied up this year so you still have to move money to sign 72...and I would argue the core isn't as good as the rebuild in 2010 when Sharp and Hossa still werent' declining. 81 is, and Panarin at best is a ? to be here LT unless bowman ships off more pieces.

See how he navigates this......and it wouldn't surprise me if kruger STILL went fi the Hawks dont' bring back Shaw.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:34 PM ET
The Hawks aren't dumb, they know 95% of the fanbase knows Shaw at $4.5 million is untenable.

So a "team source" tells Mark Lazerus that's what Shaw wants.

Hmmmm . . .

Got a feeling Mr. Shaw is in another sweater by midnight.

- John Jaeckel


Hawks probably already have the deal worked out.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 24 @ 3:34 PM ET
Playing defense. I did this a couple months ago, and it fits pretty well.

Stats taken from war on ice(min 500 minutes played, centers, regular season):

The top ten players based on Dzone%, in worst (92.1%) to best (70%) order, in all situations are:

Gaustad, Kruger, Boyd Gordon, Glendening, Fehr, Dejardins, Carter, Stoll, Moore, auston watson

So this is grouping of players to contextualize how Kruger is used and how he performs in to players closest to him on defensive deployment.

All Strengths combined:
- 2nd highest TOI at 13.7 min (glendening)
- 3rd best Corsi For % at 41% (Desjardins, Watson)
- 2nd worst zone stars at -53.1% worse than teammates (gaustad)
- 2nd best scoring chance % at -9.2% in comparison to team (Dejardins)
- 4th best High danger chance % at -11.1% (watson, Dejardins, Moore)

5v5:
- 4th TOI/gm at 10.9 min (Dejardins, Glendening, Moore)
- 3rd best crosi for % at 48.4% (Dejardins, Fehr)
- 3rd worst zone starts at -81.2% (Gaustad, Watson)
- 1st (and only positive!) scoring for % at a 1%
- 5th best high danger chance % at 48.4% (Fehr, Watson, Glendening, Gordon)


Penalty Kill:
- 3rd highest PKTOI/gm (Glendening, Gordon)
- 5th highest Corsi For % at 8.3% (Carter, Dejardins, Moore, Gaustad)
- 5th worst zone starts at -97.3% (Fehr, Dejardins, Glendening, Gordon)
- 3rd best goals against/60 at 6.7 (Glendening, Gordon)
- 2nd highest TOI% for team at 54.6% (Glendening)


What does this all mean in the grand scheme of things? That's really up to you all.

I decided to base the player set on %Dzone starts, so that could skew the results a bit with not looking more at the PK specific details as well as limiting the results to centers (as defined by War on ice). I also cherry picked the stats I thought applicable in respect to each on ice strenth (though I kept the all and 5v5 stats the same, and changed pk for obvious reasons)

All in all it seems to me like Kruger is probably the best at all strenghths and Glendening, Gordon, and kruger are the top 3 on PK (in that order)

Contracts:

Kruger 3.083 M
Gaustad UFA (3.25 M last year)
Fehr 2 M
Dejardins 800k
Gordon UFA (3 M last year)
Carter UFA (625K last year)
Stoll UFA (800k last year)
Moore UFA (1.5 M last year)
Watson RFA (575k last year)

- the_dough_boy



I would trade Kruger for Gaustad straight up in a heartbeat!
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 24 @ 3:35 PM ET
Shaw and Crawford is the "immediate contender" trade package to about 10 teams
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:36 PM ET
The Hawks aren't dumb, they know 95% of the fanbase knows Shaw at $4.5 million is untenable.

So a "team source" tells Mark Lazerus that's what Shaw wants.

Hmmmm . . .

Got a feeling Mr. Shaw is in another sweater by midnight.

- John Jaeckel


100% agreed possibly with McNeil to get back into 1st round.

Both subsequently were leaked by a "source" to the Chicago puppets, I mean media..........
the_dough_boy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jun 24 @ 3:36 PM ET
again I respect your post and appreciate the research......but......that's an awful lot to pay for a specialty skill set when your core is cashing in as well. Can't afford that money allotted to that role on a cap strapped team if that's all he does.

I'm cool with Hawks walking away from 4.5 if Shaw wont' come down.....but that money still wsant' even tied up this year so you still have to move money to sign 72...and I would argue the core isn't as good as the rebuild in 2010 when Sharp and Hossa still werent' declining. 81 is, and Panarin at best is a ? to be here LT unless bowman ships off more pieces.

See how he navigates this......and it wouldn't surprise me if kruger STILL went fi the Hawks dont' bring back Shaw.

- SteveRain



this is the inherent problem. It all depend on how much we weigh in what kruger does.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 24 @ 3:37 PM ET
I would trade Kruger for Gaustad straight up in a heartbeat!
- -Doh-



WHA'?! At least Kruger can get up and down the ice.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:37 PM ET
Shaw and Crawford is the "immediate contender" trade package to about 10 teams
- EnzoD



It kinda is.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 24 @ 3:38 PM ET
Well...hopefully Bowman & Co. are freeing up cap space now to get something done in the near future. JJ has already said re-signing him is a very high priority for the FO. I hope they do press him to sign something long term, before his head gets any bigger (which it will, especially in this city with the Hawks having such a huge following).
- Murph76


IMO he will want 6.3+ AAV. Just my feeling. Look at what he's done in 1 year. Wait til he's 100% comfortable. Guy is a beast.

H's not going to take 4 million or 5 millon just to skate with Kane.

Not a prospect. Not a homegrown player. Not a Chicago native.....no discount.

NYET......
SaskHawkFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: SK
Joined: 05.18.2014

Jun 24 @ 3:38 PM ET
anyone have a stream of the draft apparenlty nhl centre ice doesn't have it
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