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Forums :: Blog World :: Ty Anderson: Are Lightning getting priced out of Stamkos hunt?
Author Message
Queenie_5_hole
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 05.01.2015

Jun 21 @ 10:00 PM ET
Bolts simply just need to get the best draft pick they can for his rights. Then focus on the rest of the kids they gotta sign. And live on with some cap freedom. Knowing they dont have to trade Bishop but its also an option. Build around the youngsters they got. Maintain a deep roster.
- poisondhearts37


I'm not saying you're wrong but why would anyone trade for his rights. Stammer is absolutely going wherever he wants if he doesn't sign with Tampa Bay (which I doubt he'll do).
poisondhearts37
Los Angeles Kings
Location: A goaltending coach, A few good bounces and the oilers are cup champions!!
Joined: 01.24.2010

Jun 21 @ 10:03 PM ET
I'm not saying you're wrong but why would anyone trade for his rights. Stammer is absolutely going wherever he wants if he doesn't sign with Tampa Bay (which I doubt he'll do).
- Queenie_5_hole

Well when you have, potentially a few teams fighting for the best offer. And said teams knowing it. For them it might be worth it to trade for this rights. It gets them a foot in the door. Where not having his rights. They're hoping for him to make it to FA market. If your a team that believes you have a offer he would maybe sign. You go for the rights. Hence why any team trades for any players rights. Right now only Tampa can communicate with him. No other team can. No matter how good they think they're offer is.
SolidGoldBricks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Robidas Island, MI
Joined: 10.30.2013

Jun 21 @ 10:29 PM ET
The best thing that can happen for any of us is Buffalo trading for the rights and then signing him for $12m AAV.
poisondhearts37
Los Angeles Kings
Location: A goaltending coach, A few good bounces and the oilers are cup champions!!
Joined: 01.24.2010

Jun 21 @ 10:37 PM ET
The best thing that can happen for any of us is Buffalo trading for the rights and then signing him for $12m AAV.
- SolidGoldBricks

lol. i like your humor. but thats the worse for everybody. even fans against the team who lands him.
MountAlbert
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Mount Albert, ON
Joined: 01.08.2013

Jun 21 @ 10:49 PM ET
I don't get this comment? Are you implying Toronto has more wealth and affluence than Tampa?
- ehabs9

In reference to the 3rd comment on the 1st page
RileyB77
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Canada
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 21 @ 10:52 PM ET
This is probably an unpopular opinion but stamkos does not deserve as much as Kane or toews and I would rather not re sign him and let another team make that mistake of giving him 12 million a year.. Those two guys didn't single handingly win Chicago 3 cups but they sure as hell had a lot to do with it . Kane just won the art Ross . Toews could be the captain of team canada over Crosby OR stamkos he's a fantastic leader and great hockey player . I thought 8.5-9 was really fair for him. He is a goal scorer but he's very streaky and doesn't have that much playoff history . Other guys on our team perform better in the playoffs and more than just one guy too. If I'm paying 10.5-12 million for a player he better be the leading goal scorer and leading point producer every season of his contract and lead us to multiple cups and lead the scoring race in the playoffs too, because right now we have multiple guys who do just as much of that as he does who come in at much less money
SolidGoldBricks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Robidas Island, MI
Joined: 10.30.2013

Jun 21 @ 11:08 PM ET
lol. i like your humor. but thats the worse for everybody. even fans against the team who lands him.
- poisondhearts37


Not so bad for you guys... You've got Kopitar locked up already

Oilers fans would probably crap themselves in the best way though. If Stamkos is worth a $12x7, what is McDavid going to ask for?
SolidGoldBricks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Robidas Island, MI
Joined: 10.30.2013

Jun 21 @ 11:10 PM ET
This is probably an unpopular opinion but stamkos does not deserve as much as Kane or toews and I would rather not re sign him and let another team make that mistake of giving him 12 million a year.. Those two guys didn't single handingly win Chicago 3 cups but they sure as hell had a lot to do with it . Kane just won the art Ross . Toews could be the captain of team canada over Crosby OR stamkos he's a fantastic leader and great hockey player . I thought 8.5-9 was really fair for him. He is a goal scorer but he's very streaky and doesn't have that much playoff history . Other guys on our team perform better in the playoffs and more than just one guy too. If I'm paying 10.5-12 million for a player he better be the leading goal scorer and leading point producer every season of his contract and lead us to multiple cups and lead the scoring race in the playoffs too, because right now we have multiple guys who do just as much of that as he does who come in at much less money
- RileyB77


I don't think this is THAT unpopular of an opinion. I think the right number for Stamkos is probably $10mil. For instance, if the Leafs signed him for more than that, I would be a bit disappointed.

Tampa should be able to get him for $9 or $9.5, unfortunately they have too many great, young players right now, and that number just isn't possible.

I really hope Yzerman finds a way to offer him $9m AAV and he takes it.
ehabs9
Florida Panthers
Location: I've got a shitty team, and the only prescription, is more character., QC
Joined: 07.15.2009

Jun 21 @ 11:20 PM ET
Not so bad for you guys... You've got Kopitar locked up already

Oilers fans would probably crap themselves in the best way though. If Stamkos is worth a $12x7, what is McDavid going to ask for?

- SolidGoldBricks


12 as a UFA is different obviously, but I'd imagine McDavid gets the heftiest RFA contract we've ever seen though.
SolidGoldBricks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Robidas Island, MI
Joined: 10.30.2013

Jun 21 @ 11:29 PM ET
12 as a UFA is different obviously, but I'd imagine McDavid gets the heftiest RFA contract we've ever seen though.
- ehabs9


I am thinking the same thing. Have to think he definitely gets the highest RFA contract we've ever seen for a guy just coming off his ELC. If he improves on what he was able to do when he was healthy this season, it could be very big.
todd1a
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Valrico, FL
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 21 @ 11:30 PM ET
Just a prediction Whoever signs Stamkos to an over inflated contract will regret it and it won't take long to figure that out Just have a bad feeling that someone is going to get screwed big time on this one. Just hope and pray that it is not YOUR team.
- holeinone

Stamkos has faded kind of like Rick Nash ever since the broken leg as a Lightning fan I can't explain why but he has. Would I love Stamkos to stay yes! But he is not as good as kucherov or important as hedman and even I would not pay those guys 10 million a season! So why would anyone pay Stamkos 10 million per season. The most I'd pay Stamkos is 9 per season and that's throwing him a bone.
ehabs9
Florida Panthers
Location: I've got a shitty team, and the only prescription, is more character., QC
Joined: 07.15.2009

Jun 21 @ 11:33 PM ET
But Hedman is bettet than Subban... Like... A lot better
- poopstash


Statically they're actually quite similar, but I realize this is likely just a "I think Subban sucks" post so there's probably no point in pointing that out.
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jun 21 @ 11:36 PM ET
Honestly you guys played the stamkos situation as well as you could. Made it to ecf. In retrospect him getting hurt makes you miss the fact didn't trade him at the deadline. But no team is trading a star when your a legit contender. And if healthy maybe you win a cup (still think pens would have won)

You though should trade his rights. You can't afford him and keep what is your real core together. Getting a 1st would be a good deal and Toronto or buffalo might do it so they can offer more and spread the entire contract over an extra year.

Agree stamkos is past peak. But in all likelihood the team that gets him will have a 30-45 goal scorer for a while. Makes buffalo or Toronto a near contender very quickly.
BringNYIhome
New York Islanders
Location: Smithtown , NY
Joined: 04.10.2016

Jun 21 @ 11:56 PM ET
I'm sure the Newark Devils will offer like 10-11 mill. But they literally don't have any first or second line players. The Lighning's third line would be the Devils first line
Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:05 AM ET
But Hedman is bettet than Subban... Like... A lot better
- poopstash


Subban has won a Norris and played on his country's olympic team. Hedman not so much. I believe Hedman is worth $9M / season like Subban.
Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:07 AM ET
Stamkos has faded kind of like Rick Nash ever since the broken leg as a Lightning fan I can't explain why but he has. Would I love Stamkos to stay yes! But he is not as good as kucherov or important as hedman and even I would not pay those guys 10 million a season! So why would anyone pay Stamkos 10 million per season. The most I'd pay Stamkos is 9 per season and that's throwing him a bone.
- todd1a


Stamkos is better than Kucherov imo but respect your opinion.
Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:13 AM ET
I am a huge believer in peak performance theory. You can usually track the build up to top performance and project the downward trend line from from year to year. Stamkos obviously peaked very early in his career. Decline has set in. Players seldom, if ever, are able to reverse the progressive nature of the decline. The rate on goals scored per game year over year gives you a solid basis for projection.

year gms/goals goals/game

08/09 79/23 .291 (rookie)
09/10 82/51 .622
10/11 82/45 .548
11/12 82/60 .731
12/13 48/29 .604
13/14 37/25 .675
14/15 82/43 .524
15/16 77/36 .467

- spatso


There is a lot more to hockey than goals per game especially when your line mates are not the same for all the seasons. Suggest you check out his corsi and fenwick stats too.
Leafsandbolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Bradenton, Florida, FL
Joined: 08.14.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:22 AM ET
This is probably an unpopular opinion but stamkos does not deserve as much as Kane or toews and I would rather not re sign him and let another team make that mistake of giving him 12 million a year.. Those two guys didn't single handingly win Chicago 3 cups but they sure as hell had a lot to do with it . Kane just won the art Ross . Toews could be the captain of team canada over Crosby OR stamkos he's a fantastic leader and great hockey player . I thought 8.5-9 was really fair for him. He is a goal scorer but he's very streaky and doesn't have that much playoff history . Other guys on our team perform better in the playoffs and more than just one guy too. If I'm paying 10.5-12 million for a player he better be the leading goal scorer and leading point producer every season of his contract and lead us to multiple cups and lead the scoring race in the playoffs too, because right now we have multiple guys who do just as much of that as he does who come in at much less money
- RileyB77




Stamkos will get Toews / Kane money since he only costs money and is only 26 years old. Stamkos had as many goals as Crosby on this reported awful year. He had fewer assists but Callahan and Killorn are not top liners nor was Tampa's PP red hot this year. Yzerman blew the negotiations over the past year and now will lose him for nothing.
ehabs9
Florida Panthers
Location: I've got a shitty team, and the only prescription, is more character., QC
Joined: 07.15.2009

Jun 22 @ 12:37 AM ET


Stamkos will get Toews / Kane money since he only costs money and is only 26 years old. Stamkos had as many goals as Crosby on this reported awful year. He had fewer assists but Callahan and Killorn are not top liners nor was Tampa's PP red hot this year. Yzerman blew the negotiations over the past year and now will lose him for nothing.

- Leafsandbolts



It's a tricky situation. He obviously looked like he wasn't the same after he broke his leg, but he's also been used oddly by cooper for a large part of the time since, so I find it kind of hard to judge exactly what you'll get if you have him back in a prime position in your lineup.

My guess is the money ends up being a little high for what you get, but considering the player and the fact he's a free agent it won't be a terrible contract. I find most stars contracts are hard to swallow though. It'd be nice if everyone was a bargain, but that's not how it works.
todd1a
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Valrico, FL
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 2:23 AM ET
Stamkos is better than Kucherov imo but respect your opinion.
- Leafsandbolts

Kucherov has past Stamkos up pre broken leg sure Stamkos was better post broken leg heck no
todd1a
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Valrico, FL
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 2:26 AM ET


Stamkos will get Toews / Kane money since he only costs money and is only 26 years old. Stamkos had as many goals as Crosby on this reported awful year. He had fewer assists but Callahan and Killorn are not top liners nor was Tampa's PP red hot this year. Yzerman blew the negotiations over the past year and now will lose him for nothing.

- Leafsandbolts

Don't know but the thing I hate about Stamkos is kucherov and Johnson raise there game during the playoffs Stamkos does not.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 22 @ 5:02 AM ET
Don't know but the thing I hate about Stamkos is kucherov and Johnson raise there game during the playoffs Stamkos does not.
- todd1a


The Stamkos free agency process will create the next big contract trend. Crazy for teams to allow the contract process to tease out for an elite player to become a UFA at age 26. Far better for teams to sign franchise players at 22 or 23 years of age to 8 year contracts. So, for example, if McDavid continues on his current growth line he gets $100m over 8 years starting around age 22/23.

This type of contract is far more efficient than what is happening now. Way too many retirement contracts are being given out where you are paying a player based on past performance. Does make sense in any business, makes even less sense in sport.
chugger38
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.19.2007

Jun 22 @ 6:45 AM ET
I find it funny when fans of teams say that they wouldn't pay the extra 500k-1M to land a 26 year old superstar. "I'd do 10.5 but if the Sabres pay him 12 I'll be glad we didn't get him". Come on. Leafs fans would rightfully rejoice if Stamkos comes home for 7 x 11.5 or 12. All I can say for sure is that if he signs somewhere other than Buffalo, I will be disappointed, regardless of a few extra $$$
marklaprise
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: SOMEWHERE in Ontario, ON
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jun 22 @ 6:49 AM ET
Cost of living is less in Florida than TO. Restaurants, food, gasoline, real estate, property taxes, sales taxes, wine, beer, services, cars, ........
- Leafsandbolts


Right..... because he has to worry about paying for things when he goes ANYWHERE in Ontario or Canada.

"Thanks for coming to my diner. Here's your bill for club and fries. .. $14.95 you can settle up at the counter whenever youre ready hun"
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 22 @ 7:20 AM ET
I find it funny when fans of teams say that they wouldn't pay the extra 500k-1M to land a 26 year old superstar. "I'd do 10.5 but if the Sabres pay him 12 I'll be glad we didn't get him". Come on. Leafs fans would rightfully rejoice if Stamkos comes home for 7 x 11.5 or 12. All I can say for sure is that if he signs somewhere other than Buffalo, I will be disappointed, regardless of a few extra $$$
- chugger38


Cost of living, housing costs and top line dollars are essentially peripheral to core financial determination. Accountants will plot out the net and timing of every dollar paid and determine the exact investment opportunity of any offer.

Clearly there is a huge, well documented financial advantage for any team where players are not obliged to pay state taxes. On $10m. I think the net benefit of no state tax is about $600k (in your pocket dollars). Unless you work on the numbers end of the calculations you have no idea how huge that number is when repeated annually and projected over 7 (or 8) investment years. The financials are overwhelmingly tipped in Tampa's favour. Have to wonder if Yzerman has misunderstood or misplayed his hand.

Also, need to wonder if Tampa decided a while ago that they are okay with him leaving. So, why not trade him last year?
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