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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Updating Marc-Andre Fleury Situation
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PensFan1962
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 06.13.2016

Jun 22 @ 12:00 AM ET
Until he proves he can be a competent player in this league for an extended period of time, well say more than 10 games, then he isn't spare parts. You vastly overrate DP. Kid had a golden opportunity to make the team out of camp and blew it. His work ethic sucks supposedly. That is a major red flag. Right now, he is a kid that is talented, but is spare parts.

Hate to tell you this, his value is that of Kirby Rychel's or Anthony Mantha, two players that Columbus and Detroit might be getting disenchanted with and might be in need of a change. DP has shown very little if you ask me that is is all you have been pumping him up at.

I think Dumo was way ahead of DP a year ago to what DP is now. DP is a disappointment to me

- Oneonta Penguin

Someone wrote somewhere that BD is 24, has played a lot more than DP (who is 21) and is less raw than DP. Perhaps with maturity DP will come along. This year is make or break, I agree.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 12:03 AM ET
My analogies are being taken way too much at face value today. Point that I was trying to make is that high picks have high intrinsic value before they are used to draft a prospect. Saying that they don't have that much value because XXX prospect and XXX prospect were picked with that number in the past draft and haven't amounted to much is a flawed argument. When buying a pick you're paying for the high probability.
- Victoro311


yeah. its like when people devalue the return that shero was able to extract for staal (coincidentally, at ole JRs expense) by pointing out that pouliot has turned into a (frank)ball now. you can look back with hindsight at the result, but you cant retroactively cast negative light on the actual value at that moment in time he was able to get.

the 8th overall still held value as an asset regardless of whether or not shero the drafter couldnt keep up with shero the trader.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:03 AM ET
My analogies are being taken way too much at face value today. Point that I was trying to make is that high picks have high intrinsic value before they are used to draft a prospect. Saying that they don't have that much value because XXX prospect and XXX prospect were picked with that number in the past draft and haven't amounted to much is a flawed argument. When buying a pick you're paying for the high probability.
- Victoro311


I got your point...despite your convoluted analogy

So to simplify my point....why would a win now, cup contender, sell numerous valuable assets to buy something with a high probability? It just doesn't make sense.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:04 AM ET
He was picked way ahead of where he should have been. He should have gone late first round, not when he did. I value top six picks ... I don't value guys that are supposed to go late first round; go 8th and don't amount to much. DP has shown nothing at this stage that makes anyone think he belongs in the NHL, absent DComs who thinks he will be a top 10 Dman in two years in this league.

I personally don't want the sixth pick. We yield nothing for two or three years, but probably have to trade our starting goalie in a package along with other good (not spare parts) assets. It doesn't bring us cap relief, because Fleury in a package doesn't come close to netting the top six pick.

- Oneonta Penguin


Look at the players who were taken right before and right after pouliot. Dumba, trouba, Forsberg, teravainen, koekkoek, girgensons, grigorenko. All of those guys are at least full time players who contribute to their team. That 8th pick could have been special, but they poop the bed with it. Luckily maatta fell to them later. But the 6th pick really is a big deal as long as they take the best player available and not a dman just because he can skate with the puck. Most things I read had pouliot going mid to late 1st round, but Shero was getting a chubby for offensive dmen
Thorny87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 10.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:06 AM ET
Screw Boedker and the 6 mill he's going to get on the open market. We could sign Cogliano who is just as fast and has better hands for 1-2 mill. The Ducks already told him he was not coming back. He should be our only FA target as he's not going to cost much but fits our team identity. Plus we don't need any forwards.
- Dcoms

I definitely like Cogs for 1-2.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:07 AM ET
Someone wrote somewhere that BD is 24, has played a lot more than DP (who is 21) and is less raw than DP. Perhaps with maturity DP will come along. This year is make or break, I agree.
- PensFan1962

Played more in what sense? Before this year Dumo had played in 10 regular season games as a Pen + however much he played in last year's playoffs. Last year, DP was essentially gifted a spot due to injuries and played 34 games. I feel like people forget this factoid when saying he hasn't been afforded a proper chance.

My big issue with Pouliot is his lack of development. He borderline took a step back this year. He was so bad in training camp that I wasn't pissed that Scuderi was playing over him because I thought he needed to develop more in the AHL. I'm not gonna judge him much on his NHL performance since it constituted a lot of time in the press box, but you look at his numbers in the AHL this season which came on one consecutive stint and they are not promising. One less point in six more games than he had last year. That tells me something and its not good.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:08 AM ET
yeah. its like when people devalue the return that shero was able to extract for staal (coincidentally, at ole JRs expense) by pointing out that pouliot has turned into a (frank)ball now. you can look back with hindsight at the result, but you cant retroactively cast negative light on the actual value at that moment in time he was able to get.

the 8th overall still held value as an asset regardless of whether or not shero the drafter couldnt keep up with shero the trader.

- stayinthefnnet


it did buuuuuuuut, that hindsight is still a lesson learned not to pay out the ass for a maybe that will take YEARS to develop.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:10 AM ET
I definitely like Cogs for 1-2.
- Thorny87


HE'S NOT A FREE AGENT
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:12 AM ET
I got your point...despite your convoluted analogy

So to simplify my point....why would a win now, cup contender, sell numerous valuable assets to buy something with a high probability? It just doesn't make sense.

- YouMeAndDupuis9

In my opinion in this hypothetical trade that will never happen because Calgary would laugh at it, the only asset we're giving up that affects our win now campaign is DP. MAF has to go for expansion and salary cap purposes. The two seconds are inconsequential to the present. It comes down to whether or not you think you can find a cheap UFA that can replace what Pouliot would bring this season and if that risk is outweighed by the potential reward of a 6th overall selection. I think the answer is by all accounts yes.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 12:12 AM ET
it did buuuuuuuut, that hindsight is still a lesson learned not to pay out the ass for a maybe that will take YEARS to develop.
- YouMeAndDupuis9


that is true. but thats the nature of any picks. but they still have value because they are the lifeblood of teams.

however, i agree with your overall mindset here. im a big believer in different assets can have sliding scales of value depending on the team. like for instance, kunitz. he has more value to the pens then he does on an open market or to really any other team. the 6th carries a nice tag of value, but for where the pens are, not as much as to a team like calgary.

yes, it would be very nice to get a player who can potentially be a key contributor on a team 2 or 3 years from now. but the pens are largely a win now team. i understand they need to have an eye on the future. and they shouldnt automatically look over an opportunity to improve the cache of assets.

but how they are constructed right now, that cap space and murrays ELC is huge in my mind.. worth more to me than the 6th overall, regardless of the picks standalone value.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:13 AM ET
it did buuuuuuuut, that hindsight is still a lesson learned not to pay out the ass for a maybe that will take YEARS to develop.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

No the lesson learned in hind sight was don't overvalue a brand of player and just pick best available if you're picking in the top 10. Its a rule of thumb in every single major sport and can't to this day believe Shero (frank)ed it up.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 12:15 AM ET
In my opinion in this hypothetical trade that will never happen because Calgary would laugh at it, the only asset we're giving up that affects our win now campaign is DP. MAF has to go for expansion and salary cap purposes. The two seconds are inconsequential to the present. It comes down to whether or not you think you can find a cheap UFA that can replace what Pouliot would bring this season and if that risk is outweighed by the potential reward of a 6th round selection. I think the answer is by all accounts yes.
- Victoro311


my reading skills are crap right now then. i assumed the hypo deal for the 6th is going to be something rooted in murray plus, be it pouliot or picks.

if someone honestly thinks the flames would give the 6th for fleury, pouliot, and our seconds literally everything ive been bleating about is inapplicable. sign me up for that 6th and then pass me whatever everclear mixer you guys have going on to think calgary does that haha
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:18 AM ET
my reading skills are crap right now then. i assumed the hypo deal for the 6th is going to be something rooted in murray plus, be it pouliot or picks.

if someone honestly thinks the flames would give the 6th for fleury, pouliot, and our seconds literally everything ive been bleating about is inapplicable. sign me up for that 6th and then pass me whatever everclear mixer you guys have going on to think calgary does that haha

- stayinthefnnet

This whole argument was because some guy said he could maybe live with this trade implying that we should still somehow get more and I found the post outrageous. That trade is a once every ten years type blunder that goes down on the all time list.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:20 AM ET
In my opinion in this hypothetical trade that will never happen because Calgary would laugh at it, the only asset we're giving up that affects our win now campaign is DP. MAF has to go for expansion and salary cap purposes. The two seconds are inconsequential to the present. It comes down to whether or not you think you can find a cheap UFA that can replace what Pouliot would bring this season and if that risk is outweighed by the potential reward of a 6th round selection. I think the answer is by all accounts yes.
- Victoro311


So to avoid continuing to go in circles, lets assume these assets are inconsequential, what is we entertained that big package deal for an established player.

Would you do that same deal for Bennett if we replaced DP with Sprong.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:27 AM ET
So to avoid continuing to go in circles, lets assume these assets are inconsequential, what is we entertained that big package deal for an established player.

Would you do that same deal for Bennett if we replaced DP with Sprong.

- YouMeAndDupuis9

That's a tough one. I don't know. Bennett's a sure thing, but Sprong is as close to a sure thing as any first year prospect whos not NHL ready and still has two years of ELC. And for the record I don't think seconds are inconsequential.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 12:41 AM ET
So to avoid continuing to go in circles, lets assume these assets are inconsequential, what is we entertained that big package deal for an established player.

Would you do that same deal for Bennett if we replaced DP with Sprong.

- YouMeAndDupuis9


so fleury, sprong, and a pair of seconds for bennett?

Redmile247
Calgary Flames
Joined: 03.17.2013

Jun 22 @ 12:55 AM ET
So to avoid continuing to go in circles, lets assume these assets are inconsequential, what is we entertained that big package deal for an established player.

Would you do that same deal for Bennett if we replaced DP with Sprong.

- YouMeAndDupuis9


No never
Redmile247
Calgary Flames
Joined: 03.17.2013

Jun 22 @ 12:57 AM ET
so fleury, sprong, and a pair of seconds for bennett?
- stayinthefnnet


stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 22 @ 1:03 AM ET

- Redmile247


haha yeah i didnt think you would either.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jun 22 @ 5:41 AM ET
So... if you havn't attempted to read the possible Expansion draft rules (which you obviously didn't), we mostly likely cannot just lose Flower to Vegas. Due to his NMC, he would have to be protected.
- Guile


https://www.nhl.com/news/...ury-las-vegas/c-281009458
joescullz
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 12.07.2013

Jun 22 @ 6:54 AM ET
Does anyone what are current cap situation is now that the next season's cap has been at ata 73 mil?
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 7:04 AM ET
Does anyone what are current cap situation is now that the next season's cap has been at ata 73 mil?
- joescullz

By my calculation, without making any moves (no signings or trades), we have $2,666,668 in cap space after Dupuis goes on LTIR with 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and two goalies. Signing Bennett to a one year 800k contract would leave us with $1,866,668. Trading Fleury would then leave us with $6,516,668.

That's a lot of space for a team who just won the cup and has pretty much everyone coming back. Resigning Schultz should be simple to do unless he gets greedy
joescullz
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 12.07.2013

Jun 22 @ 7:21 AM ET
By my calculation, without making any moves (no signings or trades), we have $2,666,668 in cap space after Dupuis goes on LTIR with 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and two goalies. Signing Bennett to a one year 800k contract would leave us with $1,866,668. Trading Fleury would then leave us with $6,516,668.

That's a lot of space for a team who just won the cup and has pretty much everyone coming back. Resigning Schultz should be simple to do unless he gets greedy

- Victoro311

Thanks. Not so sure about Schultz being easy to sign. We first have to qualify him at 3.9. Then perhaps he might take a slight discount if we give him term. Example: 3.5x4 years. Not sure he's worth it.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 22 @ 7:23 AM ET
Thanks. Not so sure about Schultz being easy to sign. We first have to qualify him at 3.9. Then perhaps he might take a slight discount if he give him term. Example: 3.5x4 years. Not sure he's worth it.
- joescullz

We're not qualifying. We're letting his RFA rights expire and then trying to sign him at a team friendly contract as a UFA. Maybe simple was the wrong word. Should be simple to fit under the cap if he actually wants to come back.
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 7:30 AM ET
By my calculation, without making any moves (no signings or trades), we have $2,666,668 in cap space after Dupuis goes on LTIR with 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and two goalies. Signing Bennett to a one year 800k contract would leave us with $1,866,668. Trading Fleury would then leave us with $6,516,668.

That's a lot of space for a team who just won the cup and has pretty much everyone coming back. Resigning Schultz should be simple to do unless he gets greedy

- Victoro311

Champs! I'm headed to southern jersey on Saturday where all the flyers fans dwell. Taking all my cup gear hopefully I survive
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