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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: A Change Is Gonna Come
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jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 19 @ 1:58 PM ET
Hockey logic says to me it is easier to trade a 2nd line center at $4.5 without taking money back than a $6 million goalie.
- Al

I agree with you Al--- and lately the way the economy dictates so much of the Cap-- I fear hockey logic has become subordinate to those logistics that have nothing to do with hockey--
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 1:59 PM ET
Vulture....hmmmm. Carolina took advantage of a Bowman tactical error.

Bowman made mistakes. Not moving Bickell last off season snowballed to the Sharp fiasco, and finally this move.

A great idea thrown around on the cap is being able to keep home grown players with cap flexibility.

I vote for the MLB model including the revenue sharing. Except teams on the take have to prove they are putting the money into the roster, minor league system, coaching, scouting, etc.

- blackhawk24


Yea, I think the Carolina model is partly built on vulturing. And if I were them I'd do the same thing.

No doubt the Bickell thing could have been handled better but StanBowPops&McD sign the guy for a cap injuring number and from there the guy gets vertigo and has knee problems. It happens but as the cap is constructed there's few good ways to move his salary so they make the least worst move, and Carolina, or any other bottom feeder, rightly under the current system vultures TT.

Yea, IMO vulture.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:02 PM ET
Yo Zo, how often do 26 yr olds hit the market that have 4 40+ goal seasons, including 60 and 51, over 90 points 3 times?

If I'm TB with their group I pass to keep more core players but IMO you'll see a handful of clubs begging him to take 10 mil per on a max term contact. .......This guy can turn a franchise around. What's he worth to a Buffalo, Detroilet or NYI not to mention TOR?

He'll get 10.

- Mr Ricochet


I am just never very impressed with him when I watch Tampa. He is a lethal scorer but I don't see the same jump in his step since his leg got snapped on the post last year. I have no doubt he will get at least the same AAV as Toews/Kane, but I would not do it.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:03 PM ET
There are a number of reasons to consider-The reason in the mind's of some beside a degree of necessity to trade Crawford is because his replacement is on the roster in Darling.

If Shaw is resigned and Schmaltz can play center that gives the Hawks depth at center along with Kruger. I have liked AA since his NY days but I think he could be more easily dealt than Crawford with little if any money coming back. I don't think there are the same no trade clause restrictions in place with AA and it is much easier to move a $4.5 million cap hit than a $6 million dollar one, especially so if the big money is a goalie.

The Hawks won 3 Cup without a typical 2nd line center, this year they had one and their scoring balance was off and 5 on 5 play was average or below. I would trade AA before dealing Crawford or any other big name to gain cap space.

- Al


I know where you're coming from Al, but if you trade AA then you are without a #1LW and 2nd line center, especially a cost effective 2nd line center. I just don't see the Hawks trading him for that exact reason, a cost effective 2nd line center is very very hard to come by and now if the Hawks can sign Panarin for five years at $5 mil that would really help us out
Dabearshawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 03.02.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:05 PM ET
Have to give a shout out to bearsandhawks believe you said earlier this year look for them to sign Schmaltz if TT is gone,

Very nice I hope he's as good as everyone thinks he is fingers crossed

- BetweenTheDots


When he was drafted the negatives in his game were his motivation and consistency. If his play year to year at North Dakota is any indication those negatives are no longer an isssue.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 19 @ 2:07 PM ET
I agree with you Al--- and lately the way the economy dictates so much of the Cap-- I fear hockey logic has become subordinate to those logistics that have nothing to do with hockey--
- jb3333


I don't like the way things are structured....The NHL has always been slow to change and when they do it is becasue of little choice. That's not the way to run any business.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:10 PM ET


This exactly---

I don't think any Hawk fan wanted to lose these drafted players:

1) Bufyglien
2) Saad
3) Teuvo


Among others that have been listed here-- but IMO these are the big three that are serious casualties of the cap-- and would look great still in the Indianhead sweater--

- jb3333

Guess I do not want to cry in my beer.

Buff's situation was in part due to the 2009 QO fiasco. Saad, at least it appears, made a mistake in who controls what on his side of the 'Hawks negotiations. TT seems like he fell out of favour.

Two of these three guys came after titles. I can't complain too much.

I think it just so happens tbese guys were drafted and not FA's.

Sure glad the banners that count doubled in number after half a dormant century.

For being the finance expert, Stan made some mistakes, at least in hindsight.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 19 @ 2:11 PM ET
I know where you're coming from Al, but if you trade AA then you are without a #1LW and 2nd line center, especially a cost effective 2nd line center. I just don't see the Hawks trading him for that exact reason, a cost effective 2nd line center is very very hard to come by and now if the Hawks can sign Panarin for five years at $5 mil that would really help us out
- BetweenTheDots


You hit on why they will or won't-Is it cost effective?? At this point the way so few make so much I would take a chance and deal AA before anyone else of the big names.

Kane is the best player in the world, or in top two right now, he has shown the ability to adjust.
When the dust settles there will need to be a few adjustments...Hossa may be on the 3rd line who knows....
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:15 PM ET
When he was drafted the negatives in his game were his motivation and consistency. If his play year to year at North Dakota is any indication those negatives are no longer an isssue.
- Dabearshawks


The only thing I heard about him is someone tweeted he's a very good player but if he's going to play for coach Q he's going to have to play better defense, that was earlier this year
DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:19 PM ET
Really?? Even better! Teuvo who??
- EnzoD


TeuvoTime has been replaced by the Schmaltz Waltz
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 19 @ 2:20 PM ET
I don't like the way things are structured....The NHL has always been slow to change and when they do it is becasue of little choice. That's not the way to run any business.
- Al

After I wrote that last post-- what came to mind was something that JJ alluded to in a blog-- using a bleach bottle to bail out the Titanic-- which I would apply to the Bettman era Cap model and forced expansion money grab--

Surely my lens is filtered by being a fan of the Hawks-- but every off season since the Hawks have won the Cup in 2010-- which one would say is a highly successful season-- they have had the immediate sobering reality that they had to dump key players instrumental in that success--

Now those players likely didn't want to leave -- nor did it seem the Hawks wanted to lose them--

So the business comp would be that you had a successful year and met the goals that were set-- but now you have to replace your key staff--- rather than reward them for that success-- How can you run a business that way?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:24 PM ET
I saw a lot of Schmaltz in the USHL. IIRC he played a year under Jon Cooper there, so he was well coached there.

He seemed tallish and thinnish and played upright, not much bend at the waist. He wasn't very interested in retrieving pucks or playing in his end. He did a lot of floating on the perimeter and rarely engaged. But once he had the puck his hands and feet were very quick and IMO his best attribute was his vision. He was silky and could find an option you didn't know was there and thread it to him. His DNA is a pass first guy. Few would question his talent and at that time he was developing, he was after all a junior player. I'd rate his skating in the USHL as better than average but in no way elite.

To make a comparison at the USHL level, and seeing them both there, I compare him to Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz is a winger and scorer but both showed undeniable talent and both played on the perimeter preferring others retrieve pucks.

I watch Schwartz as a Blue and think man this guy came a loooong way, not so much skill wise as his willingness to engage.

Any scouting report you see on Schmaltz in the NCAA it comments on his 200 foot game. Without hearing another word it tells me the kid understands that the sheer talent he got by on through juniors will not be enough and he has made efforts to improve both physically and mentally........ Watching junior players that is the #1 thing you can hope for. That they see their weaknesses and accept coaching and are willing to work to improve.

I'm hopeful, am satisfied in his progression, acknowledge his skill having seen it first hand 4-5-6 times, trust the Hawk evaluation in taking him when Fabbri was on the board and will try to stay realistic about when he is able to help at the NHL level.

Definite top 6 material and not sure if his skills relate to playing 3rd line. .....For this fan I'll have one eye on Motte and the other on Schwartz come camp and preseason.



DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:25 PM ET
Slow down there, I've seen a lot of Motte and really like him, but if you think he can step in to a 1st or 2nd line spot you're over shooting. He's definitely got a shot at making the team, but in a third or fourth line role.

If he developes into a first or 2nd line player, it'll take a couple years minimum.

- walleyeb1


Hopefully that's what we will be calling effective depth scoring in next year's playoffs.


jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 19 @ 2:30 PM ET
Guess I do not want to cry in my beer.

Buff's situation was in part due to the 2009 QO fiasco. Saad, at least it appears, made a mistake in who controls what on his side of the 'Hawks negotiations. TT seems like he fell out of favour.

Two of these three guys came after titles. I can't complain too much.

I think it just so happens tbese guys were drafted and not FA's.

Sure glad the banners that count doubled in number after half a dormant century.

For being the finance expert, Stan made some mistakes, at least in hindsight.

- blackhawk24


I'm grateful that I have witnessed the three Cups and do think this will be viewed as the golden age of the Hawks--

At the same time I give the FO lots of credit for adapting -- sometimes seemingly not so smoothly-- to navigate through the Cap to win 3 Cups in this era--

There is a reason so many hockey experts marvel at what the Hawks have achieved in the cap era-- and a reason many of us fans gripe about some of the trades / moves-- no one wants to lose their favorite player simply because of a cap casualty-- or to see your team weakened after success--
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:30 PM ET
When he was drafted the negatives in his game were his motivation and consistency. If his play year to year at North Dakota is any indication those negatives are no longer an isssue.
- Dabearshawks


Yes, it's what is in his chest that was the biggest concern with Schmaltz. And as you mention his time at ND, a powerhouse, showed he's bought into the 200 foot game concept and to do that you must be motivated.
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 19 @ 2:38 PM ET
I saw a lot of Schmaltz in the USHL. IIRC he played a year under Jon Cooper there, so he was well coached there.

He seemed tallish and thinnish and played upright, not much bend at the waist. He wasn't very interested in retrieving pucks or playing in his end. He did a lot of floating on the perimeter and rarely engaged. But once he had the puck his hands and feet were very quick and IMO his best attribute was his vision. He was silky and could find an option you didn't know was there and thread it to him. His DNA is a pass first guy. Few would question his talent and at that time he was developing, he was after all a junior player. I'd rate his skating in the USHL as better than average but in no way elite.

To make a comparison at the USHL level, and seeing them both there, I compare him to Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz is a winger and scorer but both showed undeniable talent and both played on the perimeter preferring others retrieve pucks.

I watch Schwartz as a Blue and think man this guy came a loooong way, not so much skill wise as his willingness to engage.

Any scouting report you see on Schmaltz in the NCAA it comments on his 200 foot game. Without hearing another word it tells me the kid understands that the sheer talent he got by on through juniors will not be enough and he has made efforts to improve both physically and mentally........ Watching junior players that is the #1 thing you can hope for. That they see their weaknesses and accept coaching and are willing to work to improve.

I'm hopeful, am satisfied in his progression, acknowledge his skill having seen it first hand 4-5-6 times, trust the Hawk evaluation in taking him when Fabbri was on the board and will try to stay realistic about when he is able to help at the NHL level.

Definite top 6 material and not sure if his skills relate to playing 3rd line. .....For this fan I'll have one eye on Motte and the other on Schwartz come camp and preseason.

- Mr Ricochet



Agree-- saw him at one of the prospect camps at Johnny's-- clearly he was in a different class vision wise than anyone else on the ice-- kind of like TT in that regard--

Its pretty impressive when we can look forward to seeing prospects like Schmaltz and Motte and even Forsling--- considering the Hawks low draft position and history of trading picks-- Would be even better if we can KEEP them Hawks beyond ELC--
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:39 PM ET
Slow down there, I've seen a lot of Motte and really like him, but if you think he can step in to a 1st or 2nd line spot you're over shooting. He's definitely got a shot at making the team, but in a third or fourth line role.

If he developes into a first or 2nd line player, it'll take a couple years minimum.

- walleyeb1


Five years ago I'd agree 100% but with the strangling cap, dearth of top 6 talent and what PITT did with Sheary and and Rust (both rookies) skating with Crosby and Malkin I can't unequivically say there is no chance for a Motte type rookie to crack the Hawks' top 6 this coming year.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:41 PM ET
TeuvoTime has been replaced by the Schmaltz Waltz
- DMChi2010


Very clever............. Hope that is in a good sense though.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:47 PM ET



Agree-- saw him at one of the prospect camps at Johnny's-- clearly he was in a different class vision wise than anyone else on the ice-- kind of like TT in that regard--

Its pretty impressive when we can look forward to seeing prospects like Schmaltz and Motte and even Forsling--- considering the Hawks low draft position and history of trading picks-- Would be even better if we can KEEP them Hawks beyond ELC--

- jb3333


The #1 thing I look for in a situation like that is how the prospect takes to the speed. That and the physicality are the biggest barriers. ......Then when I see him the next year you can see his development/progress, or not, which is what you'll have the luxury of looking for when you see him this year.

Look forward to reading your thoughts on that regard concerning Schmaltz.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 19 @ 2:50 PM ET
Five years ago I'd agree 100% but with the strangling cap, dearth of top 6 talent and what PITT did with Sheary and and Rust (both rookies) skating with Crosby and Malkin I can't unequivically say there is no chance for a Motte type rookie to crack the Hawks' top 6 this coming year.
- Mr Ricochet


How bout playing him on the 3rd line. Let him acclimate. And I'm talking about Motte.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:58 PM ET
How bout playing him on the 3rd line. Let him acclimate. And I'm talking about Motte.
- z1990z


Yea, this guy has the makeup to play up and down the lineup IMO. I distinctly remember him playing for the NTDP. He was short, very fast nort-south and every time there was a whistle he came out of the pack in the goal crease. Kid sticks his nose in.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 19 @ 3:11 PM ET
After I wrote that last post-- what came to mind was something that JJ alluded to in a blog-- using a bleach bottle to bail out the Titanic-- which I would apply to the Bettman era Cap model and forced expansion money grab--

Surely my lens is filtered by being a fan of the Hawks-- but every off season since the Hawks have won the Cup in 2010-- which one would say is a highly successful season-- they have had the immediate sobering reality that they had to dump key players instrumental in that success--

Now those players likely didn't want to leave -- nor did it seem the Hawks wanted to lose them--

So the business comp would be that you had a successful year and met the goals that were set-- but now you have to replace your key staff--- rather than reward them for that success-- How can you run a business that way?

- jb3333


Unless the PA and NHL reconstructs u will see more of the same from the Hawks and others who are good and lock up their cores.

Hawks find talent nowadays by looking across the pond and signing as many NCAA players as possible. That's the only way to replenish if u draft at the bottom of Rd 1.

I like the analogy but the same issues exist if Crawford goes and let's say the savings is $3 mill...it's a game of kick the can down the road and then hope there are teams $30 mill under the cap floor to suck up your mistakes.
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

Jun 19 @ 3:15 PM ET
I saw a lot of Schmaltz in the USHL. IIRC he played a year under Jon Cooper there, so he was well coached there.

He seemed tallish and thinnish and played upright, not much bend at the waist. He wasn't very interested in retrieving pucks or playing in his end. He did a lot of floating on the perimeter and rarely engaged. But once he had the puck his hands and feet were very quick and IMO his best attribute was his vision. He was silky and could find an option you didn't know was there and thread it to him. His DNA is a pass first guy. Few would question his talent and at that time he was developing, he was after all a junior player. I'd rate his skating in the USHL as better than average but in no way elite.

To make a comparison at the USHL level, and seeing them both there, I compare him to Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz is a winger and scorer but both showed undeniable talent and both played on the perimeter preferring others retrieve pucks.

I watch Schwartz as a Blue and think man this guy came a loooong way, not so much skill wise as his willingness to engage.

Any scouting report you see on Schmaltz in the NCAA it comments on his 200 foot game. Without hearing another word it tells me the kid understands that the sheer talent he got by on through juniors will not be enough and he has made efforts to improve both physically and mentally........ Watching junior players that is the #1 thing you can hope for. That they see their weaknesses and accept coaching and are willing to work to improve.

I'm hopeful, am satisfied in his progression, acknowledge his skill having seen it first hand 4-5-6 times, trust the Hawk evaluation in taking him when Fabbri was on the board and will try to stay realistic about when he is able to help at the NHL level.

Definite top 6 material and not sure if his skills relate to playing 3rd line. .....For this fan I'll have one eye on Motte and the other on Schwartz come camp and preseason.

- Mr Ricochet


Good article by Scott Powers of theathletic.com on Schmaltz and his conscious development of a 200' game - acknowledging he needed to step it up on defense:https://theathletic.com/2...-to-sign-with-blackhawks/

Bowman discussed Schmaltz's development last month: https://t.co/TUeA18juRr?ssr=true
Here's Schmaltz on himself from March:
https://t.co/xBIQopuCXK?ssr=true
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 19 @ 3:25 PM ET
Very, very, very well said on AA. Add he has some size to go along with the multitude of other non-stat measured qualities this guy brings.

Are you talking about Franz Nielsen? He's a bonafide 2nd line center, 50+ point guy, good on draws, 2nd unit PP and 1st unit PK guy...... Really like his game a lot and think he's waaaaay underrated. Guessing he gets 4.5ish over 5 yrs.

- Mr Ricochet

Yes, talking about Franz Nielsen. He's always been at the top of my list of centers for Bowman to pursue. Complete player and as you said very underrated. He is getting older (32, I think) but as he ages he's poised to be a great defensive forward with 30-40 points which is much like how many are projecting Hossa to be as his career winds down.

Would AA and Nielsen be redundant, though, now with Schmaltz signed and with potential to make the lineup this fall? I don't think so if (as many have recommended already) Schmaltz starts at wing this year then moves to center later. I personally think that is the safer learning curve for him.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 19 @ 3:34 PM ET
I tend to agree, Motte has one of those intangibles that can't be taught, you either have it or you don't, the thing Teuvo was missing IMO simple grit kinda like Shaw. He's not afraid to go after the puck on the boards, not worried about taking or dishing out a hit. And when he digs it out he instinctively knows where to go or where to pass it. He's got the potential to develop into a nice all round player.

One more thing, he's the kind of player Q likes. Michigan played a defense first type of game, offense comes from good defense.

- walleyeb1

Grit is something the team needs more of so we don't put all of our eggs in Shaw's basket. Most of you have seen this video before, but I believe Motte stayed in the game after getting obliterated by a Penn State player. Grit + skill will be his calling card to the NHL and why he is likely to be a fan favorite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjVF8J6Yxmo
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