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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Busy Weeks Ahead, Lecavalier, Giroux, Alumni and More
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Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:43 PM ET
i think thats about as good of a way as ive seen it put. i dont know why people feel the need to pull so hard in either direction.
- stayinthefnnet


I started using stats when I found they generally agreed with my assessments from watching the games. For instance, Matt Carle was a whipping boy. I defended him and listed reasons. Then I started seeing stats guys touting him and I dipped my toes in, and found that a lot of my own views coincided with the numbers.

Not in every case, but there's going to be bad decisions made of a season where a guy scored 25 goals, but had ridiculous OZ starts or an unsustainable shooting %.

I doubt any of the stats heads started out doing number crunching and ended up applying it to hockey. They likely started out as hockey fans and tried to dig deeper.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:44 PM ET
you'd know more than i would, but i didnt think barnes was that highly rated? i thought he was just a nice swing player, great as part of the team. but i didnt think it was understood that he was a stud in his own right.

wouldnt they need to make other changes as well to absorb durant besides simply just swapping out barnes?

do you think it would be worth it big picture overall? as ridiculously good as durant is, its at least worth examining if they'd just be better off sticking with what is working so well?

- stayinthefnnet


Barnes will get a max contract because cap is jumping to $108M in 2017-18 season

They can sign Durant if he chooses to go there.

Getting Durant would be good. Very good.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:45 PM ET
I read this in a southern accent even though there are likely no scouts with a southern accent
- PhillySportsGuy


It's close to what Dennis Patterson said about Sam Morin on that webshow the Flyers did on their website.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jun 13 @ 11:46 PM ET
Agreed. THere's a lot more you can do with what we have. There will never be one universal number that defines a player. The NBA has things like WARP, RPM and PER, but even those are flawed. We'll eventually come up with better ways to represent specific aspects. Instead of using goals or shooting percentage to find the best shooters, we'll have a more detailed metric like shooting efficiency.
- PhillySportsGuy


I can't wait until Jim Benning decides to build up his analytics department by hiring James Tanner
KINGKENZO
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: OMAR COMIN'..Head or Gut?.....Watching regular white people
Joined: 01.10.2008

Jun 13 @ 11:46 PM ET
curry is the man
- 2Real

Curry hasn't hit a shot since you posted this
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:46 PM ET
It's close to what Dennis Patterson said about Sam Morin on that webshow the Flyers did on their website.
- Jsaquella


Can't wait to trade him and Schenn for Hampus
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:47 PM ET
I can't wait until Jim Benning decides to build up his analytics department by hiring James Tanner
- Mononoke




The Benning of Analytics
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:47 PM ET
Can't wait to trade him and Schenn for Hampus
- PhillySportsGuy


Thanks for the 4 hour erection this will give me.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:49 PM ET
Thanks for the 4 hour erection this will give me.
- Jsaquella


"Randy, you guys need more toughness on that roster!"
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 13 @ 11:49 PM ET
Curry hasn't hit a shot since you posted this
- KINGKENZO

but he's been playing injured!
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:51 PM ET
Barnes will get a max contract because cap is jumping to $108M in 2017-18 season

They can sign Durant if he chooses to go there.

Getting Durant would be good. Very good.

- PhillySportsGuy


i'll admit i dont have my ear to the ground as well with the NBA as i do with other sports as far as league structure goes. ive heard that the tv deal is going to make the numbers spike like crazy, and i understand there are parameters in place as far as max deals and things of that nature.

so would it really be as simple as losing barnes and someone like bogut to get durant (again, pursuant to him wanting to go there) all under the cap with the scheduled rise? i thought it would have a larger trickle down effect where they would lose more key depth guys.

the one thing i will say they have going for them is how good thompson is without the ball. that would go a long way towards helping to seamlessly incorporate durant.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:51 PM ET
but he's been playing injured!
- 2Real


Graduated first in his class at the Joe Pavelski Leadership Academy and Dry Cleaning Shop
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 13 @ 11:53 PM ET
Graduated first in his class at the Joe Pavelski Leadership Academy and Dry Cleaning Shop
- Jsaquella

but but the injuries it's ok for him to disappear if he's injured!
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:54 PM ET
i'll admit i dont have my ear to the ground as well with the NBA as i do with other sports as far as league structure goes. ive heard that the tv deal is going to make the numbers spike like crazy, and i understand there are parameters in place as far as max deals and things of that nature.

so would it really be as simple as losing barnes and someone like bogut to get durant (again, pursuant to him wanting to go there) all under the cap with the scheduled rise? i thought it would have a larger trickle down effect where they would lose more key depth guys.

the one thing i will say they have going for them is how good thompson is without the ball. that would go a long way towards helping to seamlessly incorporate durant.

- stayinthefnnet


Yes.

This would be like someone saying to you "Hey I know the Pens just won the cup and Bonino was great, but would you like to re-sign him for $8M or sign Giroux for $8M instead?"
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:54 PM ET
I started using stats when I found they generally agreed with my assessments from watching the games. For instance, Matt Carle was a whipping boy. I defended him and listed reasons. Then I started seeing stats guys touting him and I dipped my toes in, and found that a lot of my own views coincided with the numbers.

Not in every case, but there's going to be bad decisions made of a season where a guy scored 25 goals, but had ridiculous OZ starts or an unsustainable shooting %.

I doubt any of the stats heads started out doing number crunching and ended up applying it to hockey. They likely started out as hockey fans and tried to dig deeper.

- Jsaquella


i totally get that. and i know you guys have gone in the trenches here about stats one way or the other before so we dont have to totally redredge all of that. my only issue is when someone picks one stat, whatever it is, and tries to hold it out as some dispositive thing. it can be an important piece, but unless its viewed as part of a larger context it just doesnt tell enough of the story for me.

again, thats not the stats fault. theyre only numbers and can only tell you exactly what they are. its up to the viewer to interpret and apply them. for the very same reason people now hate plus/minus, i
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:55 PM ET
but but the injuries it's ok for him to disappear if he's injured!
- 2Real


Nope. He should be a sanitation worker in downtown Compton
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:58 PM ET
i totally get that. and i know you guys have gone in the trenches here about stats one way or the other before so we dont have to totally redredge all of that. my only issue is when someone picks one stat, whatever it is, and tries to hold it out as some dispositive thing. it can be an important piece, but unless its viewed as part of a larger context it just doesnt tell enough of the story for me.

again, thats not the stats fault. theyre only numbers and can only tell you exactly what they are. its up to the viewer to interpret and apply them. for the very same reason people now hate plus/minus, i

- stayinthefnnet


Yep, there has to be context. I'm not trying to sell stats to anyone. I'm not going to engage in the tiresome arguments. I'm simply relating my views to stats and how I utilize the ones I have available to me. If anyone disagrees, great. It works for me.

Part of my vacation from here was to avoid the nonsense. I only came back because I saw OB doing some draft talk and wanted to participate.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:58 PM ET
Yes.

This would be like someone saying to you "Hey I know the Pens just won the cup and Bonino was great, but would you like to re-sign him for $8M or sign Giroux for $8M instead?"

- PhillySportsGuy


true. but like i said, this is where my unfamiliarity with all of the ins and outs of basketballs salary structure make me a little fuzzy. its hard for me without actually reading up on how the max contracts actually work in application to automatically assume that a guy like barnes can ask (and receive) the same amount as a guy like durant.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 14 @ 12:00 AM ET
i'll admit i dont have my ear to the ground as well with the NBA as i do with other sports as far as league structure goes. ive heard that the tv deal is going to make the numbers spike like crazy, and i understand there are parameters in place as far as max deals and things of that nature.

so would it really be as simple as losing barnes and someone like bogut to get durant (again, pursuant to him wanting to go there) all under the cap with the scheduled rise? i thought it would have a larger trickle down effect where they would lose more key depth guys.

the one thing i will say they have going for them is how good thompson is without the ball. that would go a long way towards helping to seamlessly incorporate durant.

- stayinthefnnet

why wouldn't durant want to play for the best basketball team?
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 14 @ 12:01 AM ET
Yep, there has to be context. I'm not trying to sell stats to anyone. I'm not going to engage in the tiresome arguments. I'm simply relating my views to stats and how I utilize the ones I have available to me. If anyone disagrees, great. It works for me.

Part of my vacation from here was to avoid the nonsense. I only came back because I saw OB doing some draft talk and wanted to participate.

- Jsaquella


by all means, dont let me bring back old tiresome memories then haha not my intention. wasnt under the impression you were peddling anything either.

with the pens not having a first this year, ive largely been slacking on my draft research
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 14 @ 12:01 AM ET
true. but like i said, this is where my unfamiliarity with all of the ins and outs of basketballs salary structure make me a little fuzzy. its hard for me without actually reading up on how the max contracts actually work in application to automatically assume that a guy like barnes can ask (and receive) the same amount as a guy like durant.
- stayinthefnnet


NBA socialism basically
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 14 @ 12:02 AM ET
why wouldn't durant want to play for the best basketball team?
- 2Real


Because Curry soft af
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 14 @ 12:02 AM ET
why wouldn't durant want to play for the best basketball team?
- 2Real


press conferences with russell westbrook's revolving door of outfits
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 14 @ 12:03 AM ET
Because Curry soft af
- PhillySportsGuy

he's got draymond backing him
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 14 @ 12:04 AM ET
press conferences with russell westbrook's revolving door of outfits
- stayinthefnnet

what
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